Basic Box Office Rules

What are some of your basic box office prognostication rules? I don't have rules, per se, but I do have a few things that I try to remind myself of when guessing about a gross:

• Never understimate the teen market. We should learn from "Legally Blonde" and "The Fast and the Furious." Neither film looked theater-worthy to me, and they both caught me way off-guard. The teen market is huge now...so I try to pay attention to the marketing on a film...if it's aimed at teens, and there aren't a whole lot of movies aimed at the same age group out, don't be surprised if it whoops it up at the box office.
  
• Virtually every kid's film in wide release is likely to do, at least, half-decently. This includes films like "Snow Dogs" or "Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius." I haven't read anything better than mixed reviews of both (almost universally negative in the case of the former), yet Cuba's latest flick debuted in 2nd with $17.5 million, and Neutron has grossed over $72 million to date. Even "The Emperor's New Groove," which received significantly less attention than most recent Disney films, took in just under $90 million domestically.
  
• Only huge hits can "beat" their release date. There's no way around it, IMO: a crappy film released in the summer can haul in way more than an Oscar-caliber film in August or September. It takes a truly special film, usually, to gross high amounts of money in tough frames.
  
• Look at the weekday grosses. If a film has been released recently (say, a week or so ago), and you want to make a guess as to it's potential long-term success, take a look at what it grosses on the weekdays. "Shrek" made a LOT of money in-between weekends, and "The Lord of the Rings" has done the same so far. Both, obviously, are huge commercial hits, as well.
  
• What goes down, will keep going down. If a film plummets 50% from its first weekend gross to its second, you can pretty much count on it dropping the same way throughout the rest of its domestic run. This sounds obvious, but I figured I'd mention it anyway. Usually you can tell whether or not a film has legs as soon as its second weekend is complete...the drop from the first to the second can speak volumes.

That's all I've got for now. What about everyone else? Any disagreements? I'd love to hear them. I'm still quite new to this whole thing, but I'm having a great time trying to learn more about it, so as to get better at this whole guessing game.

Thanks for that Chris.
Now I might be able to look at the whole system a bit and even play in some of your games, make some estimates, partake in discussion.

Why does this interest you so much, just by the way?
I was rather suprised when I first got here to notice a forum like this one. I think it's really great. Kudos!

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Ya know, I'm not really sure. I'm a fairly money-oriented person (not greedy...but very concious of money, appreciative of what it takes to earn it, and impressed by those who know how to make it consistently, etc.). Aside from that, box office gross feels, to me, like the approval of the public...not a bunch of snobby (well, some of them) critics. If a movie rakes it in, and keeps raking it in, I think it usually tells us what most of the public thinks about it. Aside from that, it's just a lot of fun. I made a somewhat lucky guess about Tomb Raider's opening weekend, got a big head over it, and I've been interested ever since.

And just in case Steve reads this: yes, Steve, I know that the box office gross doesn't make the movie any better, or worse.

Rule #1, Never understimate the teen market. Resident Evil, over this past weekend, has shown itself as an example of this principle.

I've got another to add:

Kids flicks are becoming more and more popular.

Lots of records and milestones are being broken/set my kids flicks. Ice Age, Shrek, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Monsters, Inc., Toy Story, and How the Grinch Stole Christmas, if you consider that a kids flick. These are ALL recent, and ALL big hits, both in terms of opening weekend gross, and domestic gross (well, Ice Age WILL be, most likely).

In fact, the totals are huge:

• Potter: Over $314m.
• Shrek: over $267m
• Monsters, Inc.: Over $252m.
• Toy Story 2: Over $245m.
• The Grinch: Over $260m.

Those are all MASSIVE tolls. Potter and The Grinch, also, look like the top grossers in each of their respective years. These are all within the last few years, too. I think it's a growing trend; kids films have to REALLY suck to bomb. Most do well, period, and more and more of them are really busting out.

What are you talking about? Nobody underestimates the teen market, because 90% of all movies made in Hollywood are aimed towards teenage boys. The question, really, is whether the movies transcend their demographic.

What do you mean a "truly special film"?

Also, what about movies that aren't released in multiplexes? Should they just be disregarded by the general public, and subsequently, the box office prediction people? Isn't there something wrong with this system in general?

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**** the Lakers!

There are movies out there that are aimed PRIMARILY at a certain age group. Ice Age is trying to lure the kiddies in. Showtime was aimed more at adults. Resident Evil more at teens. That's what I mean by a "teen movie." One that is relying on teens, primarily, to "make a living."

I mean rare. Impressive. Exceptional. Look at the context; it should be obvious.

That isn't what this thread is about at all. This is merely about box office prognostication...not a debate as to the merits of Independent Filmmaking, man. But I'll indulge you anyway:

There is no SHOULD or SHOULDN'T. They're consumers: they do what they want. It's not wrong or incorrect to only pay attention to mainstream movies. It's a matter of choice. The box office prediction people are just trying to predict the box office; they're perfectly justified in ignoring smaller films, because very few people have interest in them, and their numbers are likely to be so much smaller anyway.

I don't know if there's something wrong with the system. Why; what do you have in mind for a fix?