Oscars 2018 Best Picture

Tools    


Which is your choice for Oscar's Best Picture?
7.89%
3 votes
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
2.63%
1 votes
DARKEST HOUR
5.26%
2 votes
DUNKIRK
5.26%
2 votes
GET OUT
5.26%
2 votes
LADY BIRD
7.89%
3 votes
THE PHANTOM THREAD
0%
0 votes
THE POST
28.95%
11 votes
THE SHAPE OF WATER
36.84%
14 votes
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
38 votes. You may not vote on this poll




Thursday Next's Avatar
I never could get the hang of Thursdays.
Having seen Darkest Hour I'm slightly amazed that it is nominated for best picture. It's not really bad, it's just not really good.



A system of cells interlinked
I have half of these flicks under my belt, and plan on seeing the rest this week before the Oscars, starting with Darkest Hour tonight. I really enjoyed Lady Bird, but I don't see it taking the statue. I am a sucker for coming-of-age films, but I am not sure the same can be said for the voting board. I know people have been raving about Three Billboards, but it might be my least favorite out of the films I have seen so far. I was good, but I wasn't over the moon for it.

I am going to abstain from voting in the poll until I see more of these films.
__________________
“It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.” ― Thomas Sowell



I have now seen all nine Best Picture nominees. I think Three Billboards is going to win, but I would like The Shape of Water to win.
I saw Three Billboards a second time not too long ago. The movie is better at second viewing.

The Shape of Water was a wonderful romantic science fiction drama.

My pick is for The Shape of Water to win it.

Three Billboards will win the Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor awards, making it fair game for another movie (The Shape of Water) to win the top prize.
__________________
“Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are, it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!” ~ Rocky Balboa



The Shape of Water was a wonderful romantic science fiction drama.
Wrong. It's a pro-fish interspecies movie.

Liberal Hollywood really loves those.
__________________
212 555 6342
Pierce & Pierce: Mergers and Acquisitions
Patrick Bateman
Vice President
358 Exchange Place New York, N.Y. 10099 FAX 212 555 6390 TELEX : () 4534



Three Billboards will NOT win. Just my .02
Far from the truth. Personal opinions shouldn't matter here.
  • It's taken the Globe (the biggest FYC event of the season.)
  • BAFTA Film and BAFTA British Film, which shows some clear industry support (has the British Vote in the bag.)
  • And most importantly, It cleaned house at the Screen Actors' Guild Awards (Actors are the largest branch in The Academy.)

TSOW seems near-locked for a tech sweep. It's not getting a single major win outside of director, while Billboards is taking both acting awards and screenplay (which, the latter being the biggest indicator for what will win picture.)



2022 Mofo Fantasy Football Champ
I really don't think so. I think we are reaching a point in time where the Oscar indicators won't necessarily indicate as much.



I really don't think so. I think we are reaching a point in time where the Oscar indicators won't necessarily indicate as much.
Yes, they do. It depends as what you classify as an "indicator" (or what that even means.) If we're talking about the screenplay indicator I mentioned, then I'm afraid to say, that Billboards will be taking picture. (Not unless you're suggesting CMBYN will win. ) Just look at the past BP winners:

Moonlight: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Spotlight: Picture, Original Screenplay
Birdman: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography
12 Years a Slave: Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
Argo: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing
The Artist: Picture, Actor, Director, Costume, Score
The King's Speech: Picture, Actor, Director, Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Editing
The Hurt Locker: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Both Sound Awards
Slumdog Millionaire: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Song, Sound Mixing
No Country for Old Men: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
The Departed: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing
Crash: Picture, Original Screenplay, Film Editing

You get the point.

There's the major precursors which get the most mainstream attention (Globes, BAFTAs), and then there's the guilds; the aforementioned (separate) guilds, for the most part, make up roughly 90% of The Academy's branches. In fact, If you're a guild member in a certain profession (editing, acting, writing, directing), you're most likely going to get an invitation to become a member of The Academy. If you're doubting the guilds, then be prepared to fail at any Oscar contests you're competing in. Granted, the guilds aren't ALWAYS everything (for instance, TSOW just won the guild award for costume design, and yet, Phantom Thread is undoubtedly the frontrunner after It's BAFTA win; It's been the frontrunner all season, considering the costumes are integral to the film's plot--something they usually eat up.) But the point will always remain for the major categories.

One of the biggest retrospective indicators as to why The Revenant, La La Land, and Boyhood didn't win picture, is because they didn't win the SAG ensemble (in fact, LLL and Revenant weren't even nominated.) And the only other BP indicating guilds that LLL won: were PGA and DGA (the same 2 awards TSOW won.) While, on the other hand, Birdman and Spotlight went on to win the SAG ensemble. And while Moonlight didn't win (that went to Hidden Figures), It was still nominated; Shape of Water wasn't even nominated this year. I see no reason to doubt SAG, especially considering they make up the largest branch in The Academy.



Even "the norms" have a lot less predictive ability than they used to, as Holden detailed in this post, and also in the Oscar preview podcast.

And I don't think it's at all accurate to say that if you're in one of the guilds, you're likely to get a nomination to the Academy. For example, the Director's Guild alone has 16,000 members, and the entire Academy voting group is just over a third as large.



I'm just saying think we will sway away from norms
But there's really no reason to. Again, It depends on what you mean by quote-on-quote "norms."

I think you're just overestimating a highly predictable year.



I think Three Billboards is gonna win, but I also think you're dramatically overstating the predictability here; if it were half as obvious as you say, the Vegas odds wouldn't be so close.



Aside from Trump's Inauguration, the main factor as to why Moonlight won best picture, was probably due to the preferential ballot. There was an obvious lingering passion for the film, which was growing after the LLL backlash. It hit every precursor it could, even BAFTA (which Lady Bird and Get Out couldn't get into.) By this point, Lady Bird has nothing to show for, in terms of any interest invested by the industry. It hasn't won a single guild award, and WGA (which Moonlight also won--in perhaps It's only major guild win) was It's only shot to pull of an upset; Get Out ending up taking that, and let's not forget that Billboards wasn't eligible for WGA--as it could've won that too.

The Shape of Water reeks of the tech-heavy film, which ends up winning director along with a slew of other big awards (Ala; LLL, Revenant, Gravity, Life of Pi, etc.)

I'm sorry. But this is 3BB's award to lose.



A system of cells interlinked
Made no progress in watching more Oscar contenders last night. This is what happens when you read several of Holden's posts in which he mentions other films he liked, so you watch those instead. Tonight, I will get back on track!



The arguments above sound reasonable. It is possible Three Billboards wins Picture, and The Shape of Water gets Del Toro the Director award.

Maybe I'll switch my Picture pick before Oscar night. However, I wouldn't be surprised and I'll actually be pissed now if The Shape of Water ends up winning it because I had called it all along.



A system of cells interlinked
I have half of these flicks under my belt, and plan on seeing the rest this week before the Oscars, starting with Darkest Hour tonight. I really enjoyed Lady Bird, but I don't see it taking the statue. I am a sucker for coming-of-age films, but I am not sure the same can be said for the voting board. I know people have been raving about Three Billboards, but it might be my least favorite out of the films I have seen so far. I was good, but I wasn't over the moon for it.

I am going to abstain from voting in the poll until I see more of these films.
Quoting myself for a quick correction. I wrote Darkest Hour but, since I have already seen that, what I meant was The Shape of Water, which I did watch last night. Really well done stuff. I do think Del Toro borrowed pretty heavily from Jeunet from time to time, but that's not really a bad thing!

Just a couple more titles to go, and I will fire up the voting in these polls.