Playoff time! Let's do a quick rundown of the matchups. But first, some cool stats: the top six scoring teams took the six playoff spots, the top two scoring teams got the two byes, and the non-bye teams had nearly identical point totals, anyway.
Onward:
Technically TONGO was fourth in points, and Spaulding sixth, but on a per-game basis it's just 0.6 points per week. So basically identical, which is true of both matchups in the Quarterfinals.
Point totals are pretty misleading, though, because Spaulding's team can look totally different from week to week. It can look different based on whether #1 overall pick McCaffrey is in the lineup or not, whether Kyler Murray's shoulder is okay (or just generally has stopped catching defenses off guard now that they know he's elite), and whether Taysom Hill gets it to Michael Thomas enough. Those are his three big difference makers, and we've seen throughout the year that he basically needs one of them to have a big day in order to pull out a win, unless he gets help from his opponent.
Speaking of which, Murray's got a tough matchup and has really come back down to earth lately, so he might really need McCaffrey to come back this week, and he's dealing with a quad injury. It's possible even if he plays he's not quite himself, but we'll see. James Conner's been activated, at least, so worst-case he shouldn't be stuck with two "plug-and-pray" RBs this week, but he might still have to rely on one of those iffier backs. But one is a LOT more workable than two.
TONGO's matchup are pretty average overall. A huge part of his success will hinge on whether Brady finds Godwin much, since he's getting both sides of that. And look out for Keenan Allen, who's got a great matchup with Atlanta. And Dalton's steadied things in Dallas enough that EE's been at least usable again.
This is a very tough one to call. I have a suspicion the Patriots are gonna really limit Robert Woods and the Ram's passing game. So I think it probably just comes down to whether McCaffrey plays. I'll give a contingent prediction, where Spaulding maybe wins if he suits up (and plays most of the game), but probably doesn't if that doesn't happen.
I don't think Justin has any matchups you could call bad. Or great, actually. They're all fine-to-good. Adam, on the other hand, has Josh Allen up against Pittsburgh's pass defense. They're down
another linebacker after last week, but it's still a fearsome unit, and a bad matchup for your QB (particularly one like Allen) is worse than just about any other position, so that looms large.
That might be offset by Montgomery, who's been great lately and has a cushy matchup against Houston. Corey Davis could be a game-changer, too: he went insane against me in our Week 13 matchup, and he could put up some stupid numbers against Jacksonville.
Hilariously, we might be seeing the two best kickers in fantasy going toe-to-toe here, too: they combined for 29 points last week.
Oh, and did I mention Josh Jacobs probably isn't playing? Yeah. That probably swings it for me, especially since Allen's rushing floor means even a "bad" game against Pittsburgh probably keeps him in the high-teens. I think Adam takes this.
Very little confidence about either outcome. Best of luck!