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Sorry to hear, hope everyone comes through ok. My brother-in-law was tested the other day and the whole family of 8 quarantined, still waiting to hear the results.
Best of luck to them.
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The world has about 7.5 billion people. The coronavirus is expected to infect something like 50 or 75% of the population of Germany, UK, US, if it is not suppressed. Its mortality rate is about 1% if the health system is not overwhelmed but if the health system cannot accommodate most people with the virus then the fatality rate goes up to 3-4%. If 50 to 75% of the world is infected and the fatality rate is 3-4% then roughly 113 million to 225 million would die. That represents an upper bound estimate on how many could die.

Recent evidence shows that the virus fatality rate is lower as many more people are infected but have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic. So the upper bound should be re-estimated when we have better statistics. Germany is doing random testing to estimate actual mortality rates so we have to wait for their data. Overall it first appears that the fatality rate is closer to 0.2-0.3% instead of 1% so the upper bound in global fatalities is now estimated to be about 40 million.

*edit: grammar
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...-03-2020v2.pdf

Originally Posted by Report
We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategiesfocussing on shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half, saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries will be quickly overwhelmed. This effect is likely to be most severe in lower income settings where capacity is lowest: our mitigated scenarios lead to peak demand for critical care beds in a typical low-income setting outstripping supply by a factor of 25, in contrast to a typical high-income setting where this factor is 7. As a result, we anticipate that the true burden in low income settings pursuing mitigation strategies could be substantially higher than reflected in these estimates.

Our analysis therefore suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels through the rapid adoption of public health measures (including testing and isolation of cases and wider social distancing measures) to suppress transmission, similar to those being adopted in many countries at the current time. If a suppression strategy is implemented early (at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week) and sustained, then 38.7 million lives could be saved whilst if it is initiated when death numbers are higher (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week) then 30.7 million lives could be saved. Delaysin implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved.
However, they don't try to estimate the increase in mortality rates from overwhelming medical systems. That means their 40 million deaths is actually a lower bound.



You ready? You look ready.
That headline should really read "Abbott Labs cashes in on pandemic with rapid COVID-19 test. Can give millions of profits in 5 minutes"
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You ready? You look ready.
Nah, I don't squint.

Unrelated, I am technically an at risk person because of all the **** I've smoked over the last ten years (I'm still vaping ). I was already worried about my lung function at the end of last year so I have been making concentrated efforts to not inhale as much garbage, but of course now that I'm stressed I'm back to my usual habits.

I really hope I get sent home ASAP, but the consenus in the office is that ain't going to happen. Personally, anyone who thinks it is essential to finish the school semester out online is an idiot.

The idea that you can deliever the same level of education online that has been provided in person for the last 200 years is lunacy. You can't go from offering nothing online to offering everything online and think the quality is going to be the same, especially STEM based programs with hands on labs.

I'm just baffled how so many highly educated people can't see the folly in their decisions.



That headline should really read "Abbott Labs cashes in on pandemic with rapid COVID-19 test. Can give millions of profits in 5 minutes"
Can get 5 minute result for tests but takes 18 months for a cure. Go figure.



Can get 5 minute result for tests but takes 18 months for a cure. Go figure.
It's a virus. It's unlikely that an actual cure will ever be found, only treatment and vaccines.

That said, the reason why it takes so long is that they have to test not only the efficacy of medications and vaccines, but also their safety and that takes time.



It's a virus. It's unlikely that an actual cure will ever be found, only treatment and vaccines.

That said, the reason why it takes so long is that they have to test not only the efficacy of medications and vaccines, but also their safety and that takes time.
Yeah that's what I meant. Vaccine whoops



I has a cough and my dr made me take mine. But mine was just allergies to dust and pet hair have to take clariton but a stronger then over the counter dose



I has a cough and my dr made me take mine. But mine was just allergies to dust and pet hair have to take clariton but a stronger then over the counter dose
Now that I'm more aware, I find I pretty much cough and sneeze all day long - especially when seasons change.

When I was young my allergist said I had "athletic asthma" - if the air is at all cool and I exert myself, I start to wheeze (and / or cough). If I'm wheezy and start to cough, I often can't stop coughing for quite a while. Since I walk in the evenings in the cool night air, I'm activating my athletic asthma to a certain extent and will often wake myself up from coughing.

I also touch my face all day too - and as allergy season progresses; rub or scratch my eyes.



The Adventure Starts Here!
Just lost a friend to COVID-19 last night. He was about my age and had been in NYC a few weeks ago. Developed COVID-19 and then the accompanying pneumonia, to which he succumbed last night.

I hadn't seen this coming. Not happy today. Won't be happy tomorrow, either. Be safe out there, people!



Sorry to hear about losing a friend, best wishes to their family. It really does sneak up on some. My wife wishes she could go up to NY to see family, but she is not able to for many reasons. Not even sure she would be allowed but I hope the family stays out of the critical stage because I know I would not be able to stop her in going if they get really sick.



Did your friend have any illnesses before got Covid19 that might hurt his immune system already. Sometimes Dr sadly miss illnesses or weak Immune issues if a person has no symptoms