2017 Thus Far (from a Box-Office Standpoint)

The reviews are really positive for the new Blade Runner film, and so, that will surely help it in the long-run. A comparison I keep finding myself subconsciously returning toward is Mad Max: Fury Road. After all, both are followup installments to films that were dormant for decades, both have aesthetically appeasing trailers, and both are very well-received from critics. Many box office analyst websites project that 2049 will open just shy of 48 million, if we went by the comparison I just made to Fury Road, then, the film will open with 45 million. The budget is up in the air for this film, but, if it's 185 million like I've seen some sites report, then, this film will be like Fury Road, as in, do "alright," but not really amount to a major blockbuster.

Although, not really noteworthy enough for the actual monthly updates, it's interesting to note that Jeepers Creepers 3 is at 1.8 million at the box-office after its very limited one-day only theatrical release. The film was plagued with controversy because the involvement of director Victor Salva, who was once arrested for having a sexual relationship with a small child, spending a few years in-prison for the act, as well. The boycotting and protests, as well as a simple lack of interest, have shown damaging to the film's financial prospects, while the first and second film averaged at about sixty million apiece, this film will have to settle for table-scraps.

On a personal note, I can't say I have any sympathies for the whole situation. The Jeepers Creepers series is a light-heart, occasionally entertaining series, but the monster on-screen will always be anchored down by the assumed monster that's behind his existence.

Even still, I like that cover quite a bit.

October

Blade Runner 2049
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 150-185 million
Box Office: < 249.6 million

Notes: Blade Runner is a beloved classic nowadays, but the film was notably a flop at the box-office, only finding mainstream approval after the fact. Perhaps the same will be discovered for Blade Runner 2049 then, although, the turn-out doesn't appear to be as drastic as that. 2049 was anticipated to open domestically with somewhere around 50-55 million, but, instead, opened to a much more poultry reception of only a little over 30 million. The worldwide returns save face a little bit, but the numbers still look too anemic to actually turn the new film into a profit. The only hope is that a miracle happens and the extremely positive critical reviews and word-of-mouth leads to strong holds for the film, either that, or overseas bulks up considerably when it's released in other territories. The prospect of a third film, as planned, now looks to be out of the question.


The Mountain Between Us
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 35 million
Box Office: < 52.3 million

Notes: Some have referred to The Mountain Between Us as busted Oscar-bait, receiving a lukewarm reception from critics, and failing to spark up much attention at the box office. The film appears as though it will fall out from theaters relatively fast, and so, it's likely the film will lose money for Fox.


My Little Pony: The Movie
Result: ?
Budget: ? million
Box Office: < 50.8 million

Notes: My Little Pony is a difficult film to gauge the success on because of how little information is available about it. I can find no reports regarding the budget of the film and thereby, it's difficult to infer where it lands. The film opened in fourth and received mixed-reviews, and so, what can at least be said is that it isn't a very successful film. On the other-hand, this film could be seen as beneficial from a synergy standpoint, acting as a billboard for toy sales, as well as for earlier home video releases in the series.


Happy Death Day
Result: Success
Budget: 4.8 million
Box Office: < 99 million

Notes: Happy Death Day has modest expectations prior to its release, with analyst projections floating somewhere between opening to fifteen and twenty million domestically, instead, however, the film over-performed with more than 26 million in the United States. The film's surprise can be chalked up to a number of reasons. In-particular, the Friday the 13th weekend surely helped the film. The October release date didn't hurt matters either. As a matter of fact, it was the perfect storm. Expect this film to be a solid mid-level hit for Blumhouse that could find itself landing over 100 million worldwide.


The Foreigner
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 35 million
Box Office: < 134.2 million

Notes: The Foreigner seems to be a return to success for Jackie Chan from a domestic standpoint, meanwhile, he has maintained mainstream relevance in China. The film debuted decently in the United States, but the numbers are disproportionately tilted toward the Chinese gross. Which, as I've mentioned before, is a territory where 75% of the profit isn't given the studios. Nevertheless, assuming it is able to continue on in China and find some momentum in the United States, it's definitely a modest success for those involved.


The Snowman
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 35 million
Box Office: < 36.5 million

Notes: This is a disappointment in so many ways, because, honestly, I was really looking forward to watching this film. From the director of Let the Right One In, it looked like The Snowman was right up my alley, but my anticipation has been dampened considerably with recent news. The film has been a giant misfire at the box-office and it looks as though there's no chance whatsoever it will recoup its production budget, let alone the amount spent on marketing. Chalk it up to extremely negative reviews, ....


Geostorm
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 120 million
Box Office: < 202.7 million

Notes: October has been rough so far, and Geostorm looks like a disaster, which is only fitting for its genre. The film had a ridiculous budget and not a whole lot of buzz behind it. Negative reviews and a lack of general appeal kept this film from taking off. This is the type of film that looks like it might have a shot at appealing to an overseas audience, but, thus far, that remains to be seen.

Update - 11/13/17: - Geostorm is doing better overseas than what I expected. This isn't enough to allow the film to churn much of an actual profit, but, depending on its trajectory, there's a chance it might be able to break-even when it's released on home-video.


Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 25 million
Box Office: 47.7 million

Notes: The first Boo! film did considerably well, whereas, this film, opened considerably behind that. That, and the fact sequels are usually more front-loaded suggests this film will make much less than its predecessor. Granted, the relation it has to the holiday season and its conservative budget suggest the film will still be a success for those involved. The millionth installment in the Madea is anticipated for 2018.

Update - 11/19/17: - Although still a modest success, Boo 2! has under-performed in-comparison to expectations and is a series low for the Madea franchise.


Thank You For Your Service
Result: Flop
Budget: 20 million
Box Office: 9.3 million

Notes: I didn't really know much about this film prior to reporting this information. The film, which stars Miles Teller, is a biographical war drama, and was released to little buzz altogether. The film has received positive reviews from critics, but the simple fact is the film failed to build any momentum elsewhere. The film is certain to lose money for those involved.


Suburbicon
Result: Flop
Budget: 25 million
Box Office: 5.7 million

Notes: I didn't really have to change a lot between "Thank You For Your Service" and "Suburbicon", which both came and went with not a whole lot of attention paid to them. I would have expected this film to have fared better, however. Starring Matt Damon and directed by George Clooney, this crime-comedy likewise failed to capture anyone's attention, this one, however, doesn't have the positive reviews to save some face, however.


Jigsaw
Result: Success
Budget: 10 million
Box Office: 97.7 million

Notes: Depending on who you ask, Jigsaw was either a success or a disaster. In truth, however, Jigsaw fails to capture the same success as seen by its predecessors, but is a successful film in-general. Pacing ahead of the 6th film at a domestic level, I see Jigsaw wrapping things up on our side with over 30 million. The current trajectory alone makes it certain to at least be a modest success, especially when you consider the synergy it might have for the rest of the series as a whole, but it will be up to the overseas success to decide whether or not Jigsaw 2 is a worthwhile investment for Lionsgate.

November

Thor: Ragnarok
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 180 million
Box Office: < 841 million

Notes: The Marvel regime raging on with the seventeenth installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the third installment in the Thor franchise. Not only did the film open substantially ahead of Thor 2, but Ragnarok even opened ahead of Spider-Man: Homecoming, assisted by enormously positive critic reception and the momentum of the Marvel brand. It still remains to be seen where this film will land, but I could see it landing some place close to where Guardians and Spider-Man landed (between 850-900 million) which would be enormously impressive.


Bad Moms Christmas
Result: Success
Budget: 28 million
Box Office: < 120 million

Notes: Bad Moms was the first hit for STX Entertainment, a company responsible for a fair-share of the misfires this year (Valerian & the City of a Thousand Planets), but also several critically acclaimed films from yesteryear (the very good The Gift film, for instance). With that, STX was certain to try and capitalize, and in doing so, it has been realized that Bad Moms has since lost some of its shine. Some of this can be chalked up to the much more negative reviews this film has received in-comparison to its predecessor. Bad Moms Christmas isn't a misfire, but it is pacing behind the first film (which had a smaller budget) and considering that sequels tend to be much more front-loaded, that gap between them is likely to increase. The fact it plays up to the holiday season might be able to help it have a leggier run than it would other-wise, though, that remains to be proven. Either way, it looks like it's at least a modest success.

Update - 11/19/17: Bad Moms Christmas is holding considerably well into the holidays. Although the film isn't as successful as the first, I went ahead and changed the result from "Modest Success" to simply "Success," and I think that it will churn a profit early in its debut on home video.


Murder on the Orient Express
Result: Success
Budget: 55 million
Box Office: < 297.9 million

Notes: Murder on the Orient Express opened above the expectations of studios, as well as many box office analysts, bringing in nearly thirty million domestically after faring particularly well in its home-country of the United Kingdom. The film, which is loaded with a large cast of known actors and actresses, will be put to the test in weeks to come. The considerable budget of the film and the amount spent on the marketing will demand for heftier box-office returns.

- Update: And heftier box-office returns, Murder on the Orient Express has had, having solid holds week to week. A sequel has already been announced.


Daddy's Home 2
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 69 million
Box Office: < 157.6 million

Notes: Similar to Orient Express, Daddy's Home 2 opened ahead of what expectations set it at. Although, the film still most definitely over-performed in-comparison to its predecessor, but it should be assisted considerably in proceeding weeks by the holiday season. This film's budget is substantial, which doesn't bode well, especially if it doesn't hold in its second, third weekends, and, for that reason, I don't think it will do well enough to make us even consider Daddy's Home 3. I do think there's a chance that it can be considered, at least, a modest success, however. It should be noted that while critics ripped this film apart, moviegoers seem to have taken to it, which could suggest a better run.

Update - 11/19/17: The film is losing steam fast, unless it performs unexpectedly well at the overseas box office, I anticipate this film will be unable to cover its box-office and marketing budget in theaters.


Justice League
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 300 million
Box Office: < 634 million

Notes: I've done a very extensive thread in-regards to Justice League at the box office. In short, Justice League made less than 100 million at the domestic box-office this weekend and its overseas returns don't look as though they'll be able to save it. If the film performs with the exact same worldwide multiplier as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, it will fall short of 600 million, and if it's marketing budget increased the same way that its production budget increased, Justice League cost around 500 million to make happen. Simply put, if it doesn't perform surprisingly well in the upcoming weekends, I think this film could cost Warner Bros. a lot.


Wonder
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 20 million
Box Office: < 153 million

Notes: Receiving a warm reception from critics and an ecstatic response from moviegoers, Wonder exceeded expectations its opening weekend, acting as a successful alternative to the Justice League film. In the second weekend, Wonder dropped only a small amount, leaving itself on-track for more than 100 million domestically by itself.



Coco
Result: Success
Budget: 175-200 million
Box Office: < 448 million

Notes: Becoming the highest grossing film of all-time in Mexico, expectations were high for Pixar's latest fare, Coco, as it approached its domestic debut. Thanksgiving weekend has become the home of many successful Disney animated films, and this weekend was no exception. Coco opened to 49 million domestically. Currently, Coco is pacing about in-line with the film "Tangled" and if it continues this pace, Coco will likely end with about 210 million domestically, assisted by the lack of competition.

- Update: All signs suggest support my expectation that Coco will surpass 210 million domestically, and, with almost 200 million already made overseas, a total of over 500 million seems possible.

- It: Chapter One quietly past The Sixth Sense as the highest grossing horror film (unless you're a person who doesn't count Sixth Sense as a horror film), although, as many will tell you, when adjusted for inflation, The Exorcist conquers all.

I do consider the 6th sense a horror film and I don't expect to see a sequel to Jigsaw.

__________________
"A laugh can be a very powerful thing. Why, sometimes in life, it's the only weapon we have."

Suspect's Reviews

Something I think should be considered in-regards to the SAW franchise, unlike certain other horror series', is that it is able to match its domestic total overseas. Jigsaw is at 60 million worldwide and eighty million looks to be a guarantee. The added home-video sales and the contribution the film will have to the series as a whole will mean that Jigsaw is profitable for Lionsgate. The added CinemaScore also entails that audiences liked Jigsaw more than they liked the last few entries, which might suggest momentum for a Jigsaw 2. Twisted Pictures doesn't really have a whole lot else to it as a brand other than SAW and Lionsgate doesn't have a lot of major franchises to speak of at the moment.

In the end, I don't know how much we need a Jigsaw sequel, but the numbers are decent and the reviews aren't terrible, and so, it doesn't seem completely out of the question yet.

I disagree, it's finishing roughly a bit above SAW VI, a franchise low. So the fact this this film isn't really rejuvenating this dead franchise tells me people aren't interested in it anymore. The reign of SAW is over.

Demand for it is over since Halloween has come and gone. I do not expect this to make 80 million worldwide.

I think the goal-posts are moved in-terms of what Lionsgate would consider a successful film. They were conservative with their budget and seemed conservative with their marketing budget, and I don't think they ever anticipated it'd make as much as it did in its heyday. We'll see though, you might be right.

I think Jigsaw has a shot at 80 million if it holds well overseas. Domestically, it will fall out fast, but the jury is still out on how it will do overseas.

How many more markets does it have to open in?

If it opens in all the territories that SAW 3D opened in: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Columbia, Japan, Mexico, and Spain accounted for over 23 million of SAW 3D's worldwide total and Jigsaw hasn't premiered in any of those territories yet. I don't know when Jigsaw will open in those markets as I am not privy on how exactly to find that information.

If Jigsaw shares the same overseas/domestic ratio as SAW 3D (assuming the film finishes off in the US at about 33 million), then, it will have a worldwide total of about 90 million. If it finishes with the same ratio as SAW VI, it will finish at about 84 million (if my math is right). This, of course, has no barring on the actual total, but it offers a perspective on how overseas territories have performed in past entries.

I'll keep it updated on its performances in those territories as the information becomes available.

I updated the Jigsaw totals, the film added an additional $8.6 million internationally this weekend, as well as $3.4 million domestically. As of this writing, it is at 79 million. I am starting to believe that 90 million isn't out of the question.

In larger news, however, Thor: Ragnarok is doing exceptionally well, having already grossed 650 million, which is more than Thor 1 and 2 both made overall. I believe it will fall short of a billion, but I do think it will either exceed or come close to 900 million. It is pacing more than 10% ahead of Guardians: Vol.2 overseas, but is pacing behind it domestically.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Result: Success
Budget: 12 million
Box Office: 25 million

Notes: Technically this film actually arrived in theaters in November, but I have decided to wait until now to talk about it on-account of it having a limited release prior to December. Three Biillboards has received positive reviews from critics and although the numbers themselves right now aren't enormous, the real indicator for how profitable this film will be is to be determined in coming weeks. As of right now, it has been nominated for Golden Globes, if it can pull off an Academy Award nomination, then it will likely have a considerable shelf life.

- The film had a lot of success at the Golden Globes, and because of that, it seems even more likely it will have a considerable run on the home-market. Next up is how much success it can have at the Academy.


Disaster Artist
Result: Success
Budget: 10 million
Box Office: 23.8 million

Notes: Likewise, with Three Billboards, Disaster Artist is a film that's most interesting aspect will be how it fares at Award ceremonies. The film is a strange one to say the least, receiving high-marks from critics, Disaster Artist is based on the making of "The Room," a film that's oftentimes regarded as one of the all-time worst. The film has already gotten James Franco a Golden Globe nomination and is the first film he has directed to really receive any buzz whatsoever, and so, it's safe to assume, regardless of how much actual profit it makes, it will open many opportunities for him. If it can win a Golden Globe or receive an Academy Award nomination, it could make the film very profitable.

- James Franco received a Golden Globe for his performance in the lead role. The film is already a modest success at the box-office, but will likely have more flare on the home market.


The Shape of Water
Result: ???
Budget: 19.5 million
Box Office: 21.7 million

Notes: Del Toro's latest film has received very, very high reviews from critics that have seen the film, but it is to soon to determine how profitable it will be. That really depends on what happens when it begins to expand to more theaters. Regardless, the fact that The Shape of Water received seven nominations at the Golden Globes entails that it will have a tremendous shelf-life and basically declares it a success, but I am curious about how much it will break out. Del Toro's films are often received well, but don't always get a whole lot of moviegoers flocking to them, I am curious if this will be different.

- Del Toro won the award for Best Director at the Golden Globes, it seems likely this film will pick up more momentum as we continue in the Award season.


Ferdinand
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 111 million
Box Office: 183.3 million

Notes: Although Ferdinand may not have blown up the box-office the way that 20th Century "Disney" might have hoped, that doesn't necessarily mean it has flopped. If you recall, when the Chipmunks film was released against The Force Awakens, the film held remarkably well in the weekend after. Granted, that Chipmunks film wasn't a success, but I feel this film has more of an upside with more positive reviews. It also remains to be seen how it will do overseas. I'll keep it updated.

- Update: From the looks of it, Ferdinand is a flop, but I won't downright make that statement until we're later in the holiday season, but the film isn't at even close to cover its production budget, let alone its marketing budget.

- Update: The film looks as though it is on-pace to cross 200 million. I might have jumped the gun in calling it a total flop, but it is definitely a disappointment for those involved. The 111 million budget and a marketing budget that likely gets it fairly close to 200 million means that it is nowhere close to churning a profit from its theatrical run.



Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 300 million
Box Office: 1.207 billion

Notes: In news that is far from surprising, Star Wars: The Last Jedi was an enormous success for everyone involved. Domestically, the film had the second biggest weekend opening of all-time (without adjusting for inflation), behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens. If you take away the Chinese territory (which The Last Jedi hasn't debuted in), it also had the third highest worldwide opening, behind the last Harry Potter film and The Force Awakens. In other-words, it can be seen that The Last Jedi is trailing behind The Force Awakens, but, by no means, should this be seen as bad. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is doing phenomenally well and cements Star Wars as the biggest film franchise going right now and with the positive reviews this film has received, it's possible that it will end up as the second highest grossing film of all-time domestically (again, not adjusting for inflation) and will likely fall between 1.5-2.0 billion worldwide.

- Update: The bad news is that The Last Jedi dropped almost 70% which is a far-cry from near 40% drop from The Force Awakens. The good news is that the film is still very successful and looks like it will have no trouble crossing a billion and then some.

- Update: The Last Jedi has continued not to hold in the same way as The Force Awakens, which was already a fair expectation. The film also opened to about half of what Awakens did in China, and less than what Rogue One did. Regardless, the film looks like it will have enough juice to land somewhere around 1.3-1.4 billion, a great success.


Jumanji
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 90 million
Box Office: 525 million

Notes: In an event I did not anticipate, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is not only the solid hit I expected, but is a blockbuster. The film has already crossed half a billion and I believe it's reasonable to expect that the film will land somewhere between 650-700 million. Expect a lot more Jumanji in the foreseeable future.


The Greatest Showman
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 84 million
Box Office: 151 million

Notes: The Greatest Showman looks like it could come close to, or even cross 200 million worldwide. For a musical, that's very successful, but, unfortunately, the 84 million dollar production budget makes that a little less-so. The film has had more staying power in the last few weeks than what many expected, with the mixed reviews, but it looks as though it has successfully avoided from costing the studios.


Pitch Perfect 3
Result: Success
Budget: 45 million
Box Office: 141 million

Notes: The Pitch Perfect series has lost a lot of its shine when in-comparison to Pitch Perfect 2. For those involved, however, fret not, because the production budget remained conservative and the film still looks as though it has a chance of coming close to 200 million worldwide. The film might not have carried the momentum of its predecessor, but it still did solid business at the box-office. I've heard a lot of analysts speculate it will carry on as a straight-to-DVD series of films, which is realistic. Either that, or they may let it cool-off for a little while and do a reunion film down the line.


Downsizing
Result: Flop
Budget: 68 million
Box Office: 25 million

Notes: Matt Damon has had a rough year at the box-office in 2017. After Suburbicon failed at churning a profit, Downsizing looks to equate to an even more costly misfire. Blame it on mixed-reviews and a lack of enthusiasm leading up to its release. Considering said reviews, I don't expect the film will be able to turn it around it a very big way. This film will cost the studio a pretty penny to cover.


Father Figures
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 25 million
Box Office: 18 million

Notes: I didn't hear a lot of buzz about this film before release, and it seems I wasn't the only one that approached it with a lack of enthusiasm. The film has fallen off the radar fast and has barely covered half of its production budget, let alone the amount for its marketing budget.


All the Money in the World
Result: Disappointment
Budget: 50 million
Box Office: 27.6 million

Notes: Ridley Scott hasn't had the best time at the box office as of late. Alien: Covenant was a notable disappointment, and it looks like the same can be said about All the Money in the World. The film had a rough upbringing, with the Kevin Spacey controversy, but has received generally positive reception from critics. Considering that the film is only at a little over half of its production budget and looks like it has already lost most of its steam, I think it's safe to call it a disappointment. I won't go as far as referring to it as a flop, however, until we here more about its overseas totals.


Molly's Game
Result: ???
Budget: 30 million
Box Office: 14 million

Notes: Molly's Game has received positive reviews from critics, released in the midst of the Award season. The film's budget is relatively conservative and although it's too soon to tell, if it is able to scoop up some more awards, it should be able to recoup its budget and churn a profit on the home market.

Really enjoyed reading through this thread. Thanks for doing this.

And thus concludes 2017 from a Box-Office perspective.