Will "The Amazing Spiderman" Flop?

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We've gone on holiday by mistake
So what? The numbers are still there. Those films may have made a profit if they hadn't done $1 billion, but it would have been substantially less. I can assure you that they anticipated $1 billion or very close on at least Harry Potter and LOTR (and I'm sure Cameron's giant ego expected it with Avatar). These are the days of $200 million+ budgets. Here's an interesting article on this very subject. $1 billion is a number that a lot of films will actually find it easy to reach. We live in a time where the vast majority of high budget films are a part of a franchise. It is a new era where $1 billion is not only a goal for a lot of these films, but it's one that can easily be reached.
You havent understood what I said or you just won't admit that you are wrong.

You said some films needed to make $1billion or more to register a profit, my above post cleary stated why I believe that is not the case at all, far from it.

Not going to debate with a moron.



You havent understood what I said or you just won't admit that you are wrong.

You said some films needed to make $1billion or more to register a profit, my above post cleary stated why I believe that is not the case at all, far from it.

Not going to debate with a moron.
I understand back end percentages. I understand name calling.

I also understand math.

I also no longer give a f***.
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We've gone on holiday by mistake
I understand back end percentages. I understand name calling.

I also understand math.

I also no longer give a f***.
Get off your high horse and say; "I was incorrect, I now see that some of the aforementioned movies did not in fact need to gross over $1 billion to make a profit".



Keep on Rockin in the Free World
Get off your high horse and say; "I was incorrect, I now see that some of the aforementioned movies did not in fact need to gross over $1 billion to make a profit".
houdini couldnt hold his breath that long. I wouldnt advise you tryen.

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"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." - Michelangelo.



Get off your high horse and say; "I was incorrect, I now see that some of the aforementioned movies did not in fact need to gross over $1 billion to make a profit".
As soon as Will admits that:

A) John Carter spent more than $100 million on marketing

B) bigger films do indeed spend more on marketing than little films

C) gives me an actual number that Spider-Man needs to make to be worthwhile in the grand scheme of things.

As soon as you admit that I had a point when I posted the link to the article about the new benchmark of $400 million domestic takes. Even if a film doesn't need to pop $1 billion, we are at a point where $500 million world wide can be seen as under performing (though it will be a few years before that number is considered a flop).

But, I'd like to point out that anything made by Cameron these days does indeed need to break $1 billion. Or at least Avatar did. I don't think that is up for debate at all considering rumors of the films budget before marketing going near $500 million.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
as soon as will admits that:

A) john carter spent more than $100 million on marketing

i never said it didn't. But you said the number was 200 million and i said it was closer to half that. I never said what that number was. It is estimated to have been around 125 million which is a lot closer to one than two.

b) bigger films do indeed spend more on marketing than little films

but is that amount proportional to the budget? The first robert downey sherlock holmes was made for less than a hundred mill. Do you really think the marketing costs was half the amount of a movie made for twice that?

c) gives me an actual number that spider-man needs to make to be worthwhile in the grand scheme of things.

As soon as you admit that i had a point when i posted the link to the article about the new benchmark of $400 million domestic takes. Even if a film doesn't need to pop $1 billion, we are at a point where $500 million world wide can be seen as under performing (though it will be a few years before that number is considered a flop).

amazing spiderman may well under perform compared to the first three movies. But i am now confident a second will be made with this director and star. The first series was cancelled not because the third entry was a box office flop, but because sony/columbia didn't like where the franchise was going and too much money from their standpoint was going out in profit participation and salary. While this one wasn't a whole lot cheaper on paper than the last one, this time there is no profit participation and the director and star are receiving a fraction of the fee of their predecessors. You add those two number up and the studio is probably saving close to a hundred million.

and though as is bringing in less than the first in the series at this point, it is still doing better than the studio estimate. If they need a billion dollars to have a profitable movie, then they would appear to be incompetent to anticipate revenue that wouldn't get them anywhere to profitability.

but, i'd like to point out that anything made by cameron these days does indeed need to break $1 billion. Or at least avatar did. I don't think that is up for debate at all considering rumors of the films budget before marketing going near $500 million.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I keep capitalizing, but when I hit done I wind up with all small case letters. I am seeing that with BB's comments as well.
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It reminds me of a toilet paper on the trees
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Keep on Rockin in the Free World
I understand back end percentages. I understand name calling.

I also understand math.

I also no longer give a f***.
liar liar pants on fire.



but is that amount proportional to the budget?
Yes, yes, for craps sake, yes. But not in the way you seem to think that I do. A bigger film needs to spend significantly more on marketing than a smaller one. Period. Why is that a hard fact for you to swallow?

amazing spiderman may well under perform compared to the first three movies. But i am now confident a second will be made with this director and star. The first series was cancelled not because the third entry was a box office flop, but because sony/columbia didn't like where the franchise was going and too much money from their standpoint was going out in profit participation and salary. While this one wasn't a whole lot cheaper on paper than the last one, this time there is no profit participation and the director and star are receiving a fraction of the fee of their predecessors. You add those two number up and the studio is probably saving close to a hundred million.
This is not entirely correct. They were on the way to making a fourth film with all of the original cast and crew but Raimi dropped out. From wiki:

Sony Pictures announced in January 2010 that plans for Spider-Man 4 had been cancelled due to Raimi's withdrawal from the project. Raimi reportedly ended his participation due to his doubt that he could meet the planned May 6, 2011 release date while at the same time upholding the film creatively. Raimi purportedly went through four iterations of the script with different screenwriters and still "hated it".
Nothing to do with money!

If they need a billion dollars to have a profitable movie, then they would appear to be incompetent to anticipate revenue that wouldn't get them anywhere to profitability.
Someone had to greenlight Avatar.

@ Gandolph Here's the beauty of math that you seem to be skipping. It's math and therefore cannot change. Even the films that make $1 billion that didn't need to make that amount to turn a profit remain consistent in their ratios. Almost all the films on that list needed to make 3X their budgets to make money for the studios. That was the point that Will has ignored this entire thread. This was the direct quote that he made that is factually incorrect:

The standby is a movie has to gross two and a half times cost to break even, but you throw that out when the budget gets that high because it won't cost 200 million for marketing. The marketing costs shouldn't be any higher than an average studio release, and could even be less because it is a well known property and there will probably be advertising tie-ins.
The advertising costs do not go down for large films and being a well-known property has nothing to do with the ad campaign. If that were true, there'd be no need to promote sequels. The costs for larger films to market is much higher than lower budget films, even though that's not proportional to the budget (but, as you said, the back end is proportional to the gross!).

However, as I said, the ratios do not change. Bigger budget films have a trend of needing to gross 3X their budget to really turn out well for the studios. No matter what the back end numbers may be. Also, remember that the studios have to budget for those back end numbers as well. So, yes, they can and will budget films out with anticipation of turning $1 billion.

How much do you think the bean counters at Warner Brothers expect The Dark Knight Rises to make?

EDIT: That reminds me. Will, how much do you think they've spent on marketing TDKR? They've released a teaser and three different trailers and more TV commercials (including a Nokia tie-in) than I can count which are running constantly on every network. Do you think it's more or less than they spend on a film with 1/4 the budget of a Nolan Batman film?



^^^

yep clearly Brick no longer gives a F+ck.

Credibility. How does it work.
At least you're contributing to the conversation.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
Sony Pictures announced in January 2010 that plans for Spider-Man 4 had been cancelled due to Raimi's withdrawal from the project. Raimi reportedly ended his participation due to his doubt that he could meet the planned May 6, 2011 release date while at the same time upholding the film creatively. Raimi purportedly went through four iterations of the script with different screenwriters and still "hated it".

Well, now, that is not actually what was reported exactly at the time or what is generally accepted, that Sony cancelled Spiderman 4, not Raimi. The announcement at the time with Raimi's official comments is the usual diplomatic speak for "I was canned." Raimi's conflict with the script from all accounts had more to do with wrestling with Sony what it should be like, in other words creative control. By canning Raimi and Toby, they saved a bunch of money and maintained creative control of the property and the budget. Because they are only paying their new SM around a million versus 25 million for TM and by getting rid of Raimi, they have much more budget flexibility for the sequel if they need it if AS is not a huge hit. But they will make it. They don't want Disney to get it, not yet.



I was hating on this movie for a long time when I heard about but I have to eat my words. It was actually a good movie and closer to what I wanted from the original SM movies, though I still like them also. I don't think it is going to make as much as the old ones but it still did pretty well.



Keep on Rockin in the Free World
Selfishly i was hoping it would tank, which would make sony think twice about doing a followup, and then relinquishing rights to Marvel films, which would be wicked cool, cuz after seeing the Avengers, im hankerin for a Fantastic Four/Spidey/Daredevil combo flick.

nerdgasm




For those wanting to know how well this film is doing compared to the others...

SPIDERMAN VS SPIDERMAN
That's interesting, especially when you look at The Amazing Spider-man's foreign take. It's nowhere near as well received here in the US as it is around the world. I guess we're far more jaded than the rest of the world.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
It is not a flop, but it isn't a huge hit either.

I suspect there might be a different director for the sequel, possibly a bigger name, as they try to give the series more sizzle. It won't be a reboot, but they might make some adjustments.