Coronavirus

I am more optimistic now: In 3-4 months this epidemic will definitely be in the past.

I think that it is more probable that herd immunity will be achieved soon in most Western countries so there will not be a second wave. Or quarantine will continue until the virus gets extinguished.

For the UK in march 30 it scientists estimated between 0.8 million and 3.4 million infected but only 22,141.confirmed cases (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-meaningless/). So, with 362,108 confirmed cases in US it means there are probably so many infected (the US already has probably at least several million people up to tens of millions already infected) that it is impossible to stop the spread now. Since the virus spreads so quickly, in a few weeks the US will have 2/3 of the population infected (so basically everybody who has not been in strict quarantine), which means that herd immunity would be achieved. These estimates also imply the virus is far less deathly than its official case fatality rates make it appear.

Overall, when the US government estimates the causes of death in 2020, they will estimate Covid-19 related deaths with the methodology of excess mortality (number of people who die over the normal values) during the epidemic. I think we will see many hundreds of thousands of excess deaths observed in this way.

Asian countries seem to be able to suppress the virus, but these countries will have to live with social distancing measures for over a year until the vaccine is available. While in regions of countries like Italy and Spain, the fraction of the population infected is already so high that most people who are still alive in Lombardy already developed immunity from the virus (in many small towns in Lombardy it already looks like everybody got the virus).

Merkel's speech is also very good:

⬆️ Yes. Excellent.

__________________
I’m here only on Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. That’s why I’m here now.

Bus driver dies 2 weeks after posting video

I walk my neighbor's dog a couple times a week, now my neighbor says she's really worried because a tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested postive for Covid19!

We talked about animals getting it. I said I suspect the tiger probably got it from the human staff at the zoo, and reassured her that where the dog walks is outdoors which is subject to the elements (wind, rain, ultra-violet radiation, percipitation, evaporation, etc.) so it's highly unlikely he'd come in contact with any infected surfaces - and unlike other dogs, he won't try to eat another dog's poop or drink out of puddles.

One thing I would change for a while is letting people pet the dog. (I've stopped asking to pet people's dogs for a while as well.)
I don't have to worry about him and other dogs since he has dog aggression and pretty much goes ballistic toward other dogs on leashes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/us/ti...rnd/index.html

Currently in the U.S.

Coronavirus cases: 369,179

Deaths: 11,011, R.I.P.

Total # of deaths @ Pearl Harbor during WW2: 2,403

Total # of deaths during 9/11 attack: 2,996

Recovered: 19,814

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Cruise bookings are on the rise for 2021 despite coronavirus

Some good news that industries will bounce back from the pandemic and life will get back to normal.

Our May 9 cruise was canceled a week or so ago, giving us 100% of what we paid either refunded back to our credit card OR to use toward future cruising. If we choose the latter, they're adding on $600 worth of onboard credit to spend while we're on that cruise.

We're choosing to rebook a later cruise. Their terms are generous. We need only rebook before Dec. 31, 2020... and have until the end of 2022 to actually take that cruise.

I was in a Facebook group for our particular cruise, and as soon as it was canceled, nearly everyone was rebooking a later cruise. Folks who enjoy cruises will still enjoy cruises. And despite other people calling them floating petri dishes, well... in general they're very clean places with constant cleaning going on everywhere the whole time you're on board. The problem comes only when something out of the ordinary happens like this... where folks were stuck on a ship together without a way to get off the ship.

So, it doesn't surprise me that folks are rebooking. We're hoping things calm down enough for us to go on our December cruise this year.

We also recently bought 100 shares of stock in Carnival. I have no doubt the industry will improve. Cruisers are crazy-loyal.

__________________
Linda's Author Website
Linda's Amazon Author page

Oh, one fun thing about buying stock in Carnival: if you own 100+ shares, you get $100 in onboard credit every time you cruise. So, at the price we paid for our stock, we need take only about 8 or 9 cruises to "pay" for those shares in onboard credit.

Out of interest have the prices for future cruises dropped following the sad instances of Covid-19 onboard cruise ships or are they holding up well? Just wondering if potential bargain-hunting might also be playing a part.

I wish we had a cruise booked that had then been cancelled, so we could've then received the $600 onboard ship credit. Sweet deal, I love bonuses!

My wife wants to take another cruise once all this CV stuff is behind us, I'd go too So what part of the world are you booking your cruise to?

@Austruck: Cruises are disgusting. I don’t care what any cruiser says.

Glad to hear you’re getting a sweet deal, tho!

In the past 3 hours since I last posted this, more than 1,000 Americans have died

Currently in the U.S.

Coronavirus cases: 386,104

Deaths: 12,242, R.I.P.

Recovered: 21,316

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

@Sedai

https://kdvr.com/news/man-arrested-i...al-distancing/

__________________
"This is that human freedom, which all boast that they possess, and which consists solely in the fact, that men are conscious of their own desire, but are ignorant of the causes whereby that desire has been determined." -Baruch Spinoza

From that link above:
Sounds like a jerk and he deserved to be arrested.

From the same article:

"The sign at Donelson Park said “Closed” but in smaller print reads, “in groups of no more than 4 persons, parks remain open for walking, hiking, biking, running and similar activities.”

Dude was there with his wife and kid. They were not breaking the law. He was under no obligation to provide identification. That does not make him a jerk: it makes him a citizen.

But he refused to identify himself when asked by the cops. That sounds like someone with an axe to grind and is reason to be detained.

No, it sounds like a citizen exercising his rights. Pursurant to Colorado law, the officers were clearly in the wrong.

"16-3-103. Stopping of suspect.

(1) A peace officer may stop any person who he reasonably suspects is committing, has committed, or is about to commit a crime and may require him to give his name and address, identification if available, and an explanation of his actions."

But then again, I know every time I see a man playing ball with his kid in the park that he is intending on knocking over the closest liquor store. So you probably right.

The sign isn't what's important. What's important is whether or not the law had been changed or not to disallow anyone at the park since the sign went up.

If the officers are required to stop any access to the park, then they're doing their job. That sign might not reflect the latest emergency ordinance.

BUT, what bothers me more is that we're in a society where it's somehow SO ok and encouraged to give officers crap. Try to imagine a world without cops. It would be a disaster. If we were in a wild un-restrained section of the country, everyone would be *begging* for cops to 1. exist and 2. be overzealous in their actions.

__________________
Rules:

When women have a poet, they want a cowboy.
When they have a cowboy, they want a poet.
They'll say "I don't care if he's a poet or cowboy, so long as he's a nice guy. But oh, I'm so attracted to that bad guy over there."

Understand this last part, and you'll get them all.