Wisdom for oscar pool

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So the Oscars are upon us.The first thing to know about the Academy is that they are not there to help films out of bad situations. So, don't expect a movie that has bombed to be resurrected by the academy. For the most part Academy Awards celebrate the success of the movie both artistically and commercially. There might be rare scenarios where a movie Moonlight wins best picture but for the most part that's an exception to the rule. This year there are 4 movies Vying for the top prize, they are, parasite, 1917, Jojo rabbit and once upon a time in Hollywood.

All the professional critics want parasite to win. All the Tarantino fans among Critics want once upon a time in Hollywood to win best picture. Few critics that are fans of technical achievements in film want 1917 to win best picture and finally I am not sure who wants Jojo rabbit to win best picture.

I am going to predict few categories Based on the previous experiences with Academy Awards.

1. Best visual effects - so, the nominees in this category are the Irishman, 1917, avengers: end game, The lion King, Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker.The movies to eliminate here are avengers, Star Wars and 1917.The reason why avengers and Star Wars are not going to win here is because the Academy as a whole is experiencing franchise fatigue and they hate sequels, so that will affect these movies chances. The reason why 1917 won't win best visual effects is because it's more similar to Dunkirk or mad Max fury Road in terms of visual effects so that prevents the movie from winning even though it is front runner in visual effects achievement. So there is a bit of a contradiction going on with 1917, if you love 1917 as a practical achievement then you are not supposed to give it a visual effects oscar and if you give it a visual effects Oscar then you are not appreciating it's practical achievements.That leaves us with the lion King and Irishman. Among these two I think the lion King will win over Irishman. The effects in Irishman feel a little in progress than completed versions and that puts Irishman behind the lion King.
Predicted winner: the lion king
Out of left field spoiler: Irishman


2. Best makeup and hair - The nominees are Bombshell, joker, Judy, maleficent:Mistress of evil, 1917. I don't think 1917, joker or Mistress of evil has a shot at winning this.As much as the make up judy helped Renée Zellweger in winning best actress award, it is very minimal, so Judy is out. That leaves us with joker and bombshell. Among these two, I think bombshell will win the Oscar. This branch of the Academy tends to appreciate prosthetics-based makeup to bring real life people to screen to tell important stories. It'll follow the same pattern as the darkest hour and vice.
Predicted winner: Bombshell
Out of left field spoiler: Maleficent Mistress of evil


3. Best costume design - the nominees are the Irishman, Jojo rabbit, joker, Little women, once upon a time in Hollywood.The Irishman is out because of the bland looking costumes. Joker is out because it heavily relies on older movies joker style.I don't think Jojo rabbit is gonna win this category because after all it is just a variation of Nazi costume. That leaves us with little women and once upon a Time in Hollywood. Once upon a time in Hollywood is clever in the sense that the filmmakers of the movie went for iconic looking costumes. So, no matter who wins this award the costumes in once upon a time in Hollywood will stand the test of time in a unique and weird way. A win for little women might be the conventional wisdom choice because it's a period costume. But, I think once upon a time in Hollywood is stronger in this and production design categories than people give it credit to be, so, I predict once upon a time in Hollywood to be the spoiler winner of this category as opposed to little woman.
Predicted winner : once upon a time in Hollywood
Out of left field spoiler : little women


4. Best production design-the nominees are the Irishman, Jojo rabbit, 1917, once upon a time in Hollywood, parasite. This is one of the most competitive category of the year. Except Irishman the rest of the four nominees have a very strong possibility of winning this category. But conventional wisdom is much more at play here. All the critics that went head over heels for parasite expect that movie to win production design but I do not see that happening. As much as the movie is dependent on the architecture of house in which the movie takes place I don't see it winning production design. Well, that put the competition squarely between 1917 and once upon a time in Hollywood. The production design in 1917 is vital to the filmmaking aspects of the movie.I just do not see this category win going to 1917 unless there is a 1917 sweep like gravity in 2013. Because it's all just ruined countryside and trenches. So, that makes once upon a time in Hollywood the winner.
Predicted winner : upon a time in Hollywood
Out of left field spoiler: 1917


5. Best adapted screenplay - the nominees are Jojo rabbit, little women, joker, the two Popes, and the Irishman. This is between Jojo rabbit and little women. The reason why the Irishman has zero chance of winning this award is because it's a gangster movie and we have seen these kind of movies from great and mediocre directors all the time. The most impactful scenes in this movie involves someone threatening someone or the moments of suspense before violence erupts.Joker is not going to win this because the screenplay of the movie is it's weakest part. Two popes is just happy to be there. So the race is between Jojo rabbit and little women, there is no doubt about that. Little women has a lot of critical support because Greta Gerwig is beloved by critics. She won the USC Scripters award. Jojo rabbit won both WGA and BAFTA awards. So Jojo rabbit has beaten little women in two occasions.I have seen Jojo rabbit yesterday and the premise of the movie is inventive but conventional at the same time. However, by the end the movie gets you because you cry when you see Johansson hung publicly. The movie walks the fine line between depicting the horror during the war and the lighthearted comedy that arises through the emotions of a 10-year-old kid. The ending battle in the village shows vividly how a child's warped ideology could shatter in a matter of few minutes when the truth of the reality hits. The problem with little women for me personally is Greta Gerwig is getting a special treatment and she is undeniably riding the female quota. And I am not alone in feeling like that.
Predicted winner: Jojo rabbit
Out of left field spoiler: little women(disappointingly)


6. Sound editing and sound mixing - this is a race between Ford V Ferrari and 1917. No other movie in these two categories will pose any sort of threat. In categories like this when we have a tight race between two best picture nominees there are two key factors to take into account 1) the prestige and the gravitas of the movie and 2) the front runner status of the movie. Unquestionably 1917 is more of a front runner than Ford V Ferrari. Then you might say ford v Ferrari is a success in large part due to the extremely believable sound design of the movie. Well, that's true but sound design of 1917 is equally impressive. But I think the main aspect that voters consider especially when the movie is being voted on by all branches of the academy is, how much did the filmmaker risk by making this movie. As much as I love Ford versus Ferrari, James Mangold the director of the movie kind of played it safe. While making the movie he was concerned to make the movie more commercial in order to make it a hit. I understand where he's coming from because racing movies are not commercially successful traditionally. But in the end when you ask a large group of industry professionals to vote for a movie by their peers they want to know what this film maker has risked by making this movie. In case of Ford V Ferrari the risk is smaller compared to the risk taken by Sam Mendes while making 1917. If the one trick approach to 1917 did not work the whole movie along with Sam Mendes career would have gone down the toilet. So just like Dunkirk I think 1917 will win both sound categories. BUT, if once upon a time in hollywood wins this, then there is a real possibility for a best picture win for that movie.
Predicted winner: 1917
Out of left field spoiler: Ford V Ferrari


7. Film editing - similar to sound categories the competition here really is between parasite and Ford v Ferrari. I know that Ford v Ferrari has won the BAFTA for film editing. But, last year Vice has also won the editing at BAFTA. Both Vice and Ford V Ferrari Lost the ACE Eddie award to Bohemian Rhapsody and parasite respectively. Last year Bohemian Rhapsody went on to win Best film editing Oscar. I understand that there are other factors at play for Bohemian Rhapsody to win film editing. After Brian singer was fired, the film editor had the task of putting the movie together by himself. So, he could have won for that. But, the one thing that is common between Bohemian Rhapsody and Parasite when competing against vice and Ford v Ferrari is that the former two movies are stronger best picture contenders than the latter two. So I am betting that parasite is gonna upset and win the film editing Oscar. This will make Ford V Ferrari the only best picture nominee this year to go home empty-handed. I am sorry James Mangold, as much as you tried to make a movie that pleases both your artistic vision and the studio executives, I think the commercial elements in the movie are too on the nose to win an Oscar. Film editing is widely considered as a high-end technical achievement award. Because, everything that the director has shot, all the hard work done by the whole crew on set filming will be handed over to the film editor and for the most part the director is at the mercy of the film editor to make a coherent and solid cut of the movie. So, they will not give a commercial movie like Ford v Ferrari a film editing Oscar. There is higher chance for Ford V Ferrari to win one of the sound Oscars than to win film editing. There is no freaking way that Ford V Ferrari is going to win film editing, it is too precious of an award for academy to just hand it over to a commercial movie. Though I must say, I do want to be pleasantly surprised.
Predicted winner: Parasite
Out of left field spoiler: Ford V Ferrari


8. Best song: I don't care
Predicted winner: rocket man

9. Best score: enough said
Projected winner: joker
Out of left field spoiler: joker


10.Best cinematography: enough said
Projected winner: 1917
Out of left field spoiler: 1917


11. Supporting actor-enough said.
Predicted winner: Brad Pitt
Out of left field spoiler: Brad Pitt


12. Supporting actress - This really is a competition between Laura Dern and Scarlett Johansson. There is a possible upset from Margot Robbie for bombshell due to the ongoing Harvey Weinstein court trial and the humiliating scene she has with Roger Ailes. I get that Laura Dern is winning all the awards. But Scarlett Johansson has two movies in contention and being a Jew herself portraying a german in JoJo rabbit and getting killed by Nazis for being a resistance makes her much more sympathetic character than one would imagine. So there is a very strong possibility that Laura Dern is not as strong of a contender/lock as people would want you to believe. Scarlett Johansson is a major major major spoiler that could happen.
Predicted winner: Laura Dern
Out of left field spoiler: Scarlett Johansson


13. Actress - this really should have been a two-way or three-way race but all the other competitors to Renée Zellweger are either in for weak movies than Judy or the performances are not strong enough. Cynthia Erivo is not strong enough of a contender. Scarlett Johansson is not strong enough as a lead. Bombshell is weak overall in its performance.Saoirse Ronan is not even a threat. Due to lack of any proper competition I think Renée Zellweger is Halak. This race would have been much stronger if there is a veteran actress or someone that posed a real threat but now it's a done deal.
Projected winner: Renée Zellweger
Out of left field spoiler:Renee Zellweger


14. Actor - Joaquin phoenix has this in the bag for two reasons, the movie made $1 billion at the box office and his carrier kind of warrants an Academy award.
Projected winner: Joaquin Phoenix
Out of left field spoiler: Joaquin Phoenix


15. Director-people have all kinds of strange predictions between the three front runners.Somehow Quentin Tarantino is going to win because he is overdue as director. I do not buy this because the industry appears to treat Tarantino more as a screenwriter than a director. So there is no freaking way Quentin Tarantino is going to win an Oscar for best director least of all for this movie. Then comes the heated showdown between bong Joon ho and Sam Mendes. Critics want bong Joon ho to win best director because they loved parasite but the elemental challenges that Sam Mendes might have faced while making 1917 far outweigh the structural challenges that Bong joon ho might have faces while making parasite. Moreover, the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the DGA awards for directing that Sam Mendes has won kind of sealed the deal for him to win his second Academy award as a director. This happens all the time in directors category, Revenant vs mad max. Critics like the new shiny toys. But as unjust as it might seem, academy has a way to rewarding successful artists with even more success than to throw a bone at a filmmaker that may need it. It's track record has countless examples of giving awards to people that already has enough success. It's just a matter of who is more deserving in their eyes. The more I think about it, there is no freaking way anyone other than sam mendes will win this. I say that even without considering the statistics.
Projected winner: Sam Mendes
out of left field spoiler: Sam Mendes


16. Original screenplay - this is a two-way showdown between Quentin Tarantino and Bong Joon ho. Quentin Tarantino and his legacy makes it impossible for once upon a time in Hollywood to not be a staple among filmmakers in Hollywood. He is too big of a director among independent filmmakers to ignore this movie. Bong Joon ho on the other hand is respected among filmmakers because they have seen his previous movies and he was not rewarded for any of them. So this is a very very tight race between these two. Tarantino purposefully is making fun of the metoo movement through various innuendos in this movie. The scenes where Cliff booth is arguing with his wife is played with ambiguity purposefully. Tarantino has all the support from film bloggers and there so-called film historians saying that this movie is one of the best movies of all time. So it is very very hard. At the same time the director of parasite will have to win something other than best foreign language film. Because Parasite has won the screen actors Guild ensemble award. So, this is a special foreign movie. Just foreign+editing doesn't sound right. Quentin Tarantino and his Magnum opus once upon a time in Hollywood is also too big to ignore.I will go out on a limb and say that people will be upset on Monday and Quentin Tarantino is going to win original screenplay for the third time in his career.
Projected winner : Once upon a time in Hollywood
Very very very possible out of left field spoiler : parasite


17. Picture - this is a three-way race between upon a time in Hollywood, parasite and 1917. The problem with 1917 is that it's a very very late breaking movie. BAFTA is always seduced by huge scale epics. Late entry is not a problem with BAFTA because they are a very open group. But, the advantage that 1917 has over another late breaking movie like a revenant is that the risk in making a movie like revenant is mitigated by the presence of a movie a star like Leonardo DiCaprio. Casting him as a lead in a $130 million movie is like casting Iron Man in a two fifty million dollar movie . There is an enormous box office guarantee with those kinds of movies. 1917 on the other hand needed all the accolades and awards attention it can get. Sam Mendes is no Christopher Nolan to guarantee any sort of box office success. I just don't see parasite winning both foreign best picture and the best picture. Parasite will win screenplay and editing before it win picture. But, I do agree that it is a much much closer race between 1917 and parasite. Once upon a time in Hollywood is also much closer to best picture than people would think. Because it is a genuine hit. However it has the same problem as revenant. Leonardo dicaprio. Casting him will give your movie a lot of freedom while making the movie because he has his fans that will show up to theaters. 1917 won best picture at Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA. That is a very strong indicator BUT 1917 is a late breaking movie in this short Oscar season. While all the guilds might have supported 1917, I just don't have enough confidence to think that academy will be like all those other guilds. Academy is a much bigger branch. JoJo rabbit could have been a contender but I think the lack of box office success and the light tone of the movie might have hurt its chances.
Projected winner: once upon a time in Hollywood/1917
Very very possible out of left field spoiler: parasite


If Once upon a time in hollywood wins then it would be a major upset and it would be a win because none of the other contenders were able to break out in preferential ballet. That shows that more people were okay with supporting a controversial pioneer in independent filmmaking than to give an oscar to a more fantastical foreign movie that needs suspension of disbelief or to a late breaking war movie that feels like a previous oscar winner(birdman) in its technical achievement and a little light on emotion and story. That being said, once upon a time in hollywood is very very strong. Parasite praise among the industry voters during awards season is because its a foreign movie. Hollywood loves to stand up and cheer for the little man. That is not an indication of industry support when they vote for the movie in the comfort of their houses when no one is looking at or judging them.



28 days...6 hours...42 minutes...12 seconds
You talk about the Academy not awarding movies in the VFX department because of Disney fatigue....then you give the award to a Disney movie?
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Suspect's Reviews



So the Oscars are upon us.The first thing to know about the Academy is that they are not there to help films out of bad situations. So, don't expect a movie that has bombed to be resurrected by the academy. For the most part Academy Awards celebrate the success of the movie both artistically and commercially.
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Very thoughtful summary, Aronisred.



So the Oscars are upon us.The first thing to know about the Academy is that they are not there to help films out of bad situations. So, don't expect a movie that has bombed to be resurrected by the academy. For the most part Academy Awards celebrate the success of the movie both artistically and commercially. There might be rare scenarios where a movie Moonlight wins best picture but for the most part that's an exception to the rule.
That is an old truth from decades past and generations of Oscar voters ago,

Since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won Best Picture at the 2004 ceremony there have rather infamously been no true blockbuster winners, sparking outrage and thinkpieces about how out of touch the Oscar voters are from the tastes of the masses, including the winners with the two lowest grosses of all time in Moonlight ($29-million) and The Hurt Locker ($19-million). There have only been two movies in the past fifteen years that had grossed more than $100-million domestically before they won Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby ($114-million) and Argo ($129-million).

If 1917 does win it is sitting at about $135-million domestically.
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Since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won Best Picture at the 2004 ceremony there have rather infamously been no true blockbuster winners, sparking outrage and thinkpieces about how out of touch the Oscar voters are from the tastes of the masses, including the winners with the two lowest grosses of all time in Moonlight ($29-million) and The Hurt Locker ($19-million). There have only been two movies in the past fifteen years that had grossed more than $100-million domestically before they won Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby ($114-million) and Argo ($129-million).
And with a $35-million take at the domestic box office Parasite continues the long trend of the bigger money makers NOT winning Best Picture. It ranks as the third lowest total ever behind The Hurt Locker and Moonlight.




28 days...6 hours...42 minutes...12 seconds
And with a $35-million take at the domestic box office Parasite continues the long trend of the bigger money makers NOT winning Best Picture. It ranks as the third lowest total ever behind The Hurt Locker and Moonlight.


True, but isn't it in the top ten in regards to foreign language films at the box office?

I believe Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is still tops (not including Passion of the Christ of course).

I think it's still impressive and with this win maybe it will push it even further.