2015 in Film

We've already had a thread dedicated to basically every movie that is scheduled to be released in 2015, but for those that haven't had an opportunity to take a gander at them, they'll be mentioned by name in this thread. Basically, 2015 is looking to be one of the biggest years in cinematic history, and that isn't something up for debate, but a fact being written. This isn't the same as saying that it's going to be one of the greatest years, but to say that it's going to have a lot of movies that are going to make a lot of money.

It was as if every major movie-making company had a meeting and decided that this year was going to be the year that all kinds of major blockbusters are going to be thrown at audiences. I don't know about any of you, but 2013 wasn't an enormous year from a box-office perspective. There has been one movie that has made it past one-billion in box-office this year, and by the looks of it, it looks like Iron Man 3 will be the only one.

I'm not saying it was a bad year in-terms of movie-quality, because it wasn't, I have seen over twenty movies in theaters this year, and that's not counting Desolation of Smaug and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. I'm just saying in-comparison to last year which had The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit, and Skyfall make more than a billion, it doesn't measure up from a statistical standpoint. Mind you, as a whole, all of the movies accumulate a high amount.

2015 looks like it could match it, and maybe do a lot more.

These are merely box-office theories and don't have much in the way of analysis, but here is my predictions for how much 2015 will make with each respective film:



Fifty Shades of Grey - The movie has been building a lot of commotion from a lot of people, most choose to refer to the novel as "erotic literature," which is neither here nor there. However, the movie has a budget of around forty million and enough buzz to assume that it makes at least two-hundred million, which may seem small, but you have to assume the high-rated will probably diminish its box-office standing.

Frankenstein: The movie has Daniel Radcliffe, and so it'll probably make a substantial amount, but I don't have a lot to go on.

Unnamed Friday the 13th Remake - I don't know why I even bother to talk about this movie, considering it's hardly a big film at all. Maybe it's the horror-fan in me trying to give acknowledgement to the thirteen movie with Jason taking the reigns. The last Friday the 13th remake made ninety-one million, but I am imagining viewers are getting tired of the remakes and that the popularity of Jason has only diminished since then. I am expecting a gross of about 70 million, give or take.

SpongeBob SquarePants 2 - It's happened, and I'm not going to lie and say that I am not more than likely going to see this movie in theaters. The last movie made 140m, however, SpongeBob has lost a lot of its popularity since then, and really, the interest isn't as strong. Still, it has enough of a backing to at least get 120m.

The Penguins of Madagascar - This is another movie with a backing provided by a Nickelodeon television show. However, this movie is said to be unrelated to the television show. The fact that it's a spin-off will already guarantee the fact that it's going to make less than the Madagascar films, but the backing from the television show and the popularity of the Penguins (quite less than the Minions from Despicable Me) will give it at least a 400m.

Insidious Chapter 3 - The second movie wasn't necessarily loved, but that can be said about a lot of successful horror-movies. They're making a sequel, and while I don't think it'll make as much as the first or second, I think eighty million is possible.



And here we go....

The Avengers: Age of Ultron - Phase 2 is already heading in the direction of being more successful than the first, and unless there's a sudden drop in interest, it's likely that this movie makes even more than the first. I didn't think that was possible, but with the impact that the first Avengers has made, and the momentum it is building, I think it's possible we'll see around 1.8 billion from this flick.

Mad Max: Fury Road - I have no idea, but the second one was thirty years ago, and the nostalgia alone could make a substantial amount.

Jurassic World - This is the second installment in how this year is going to set the world on-fire. This is the first time that we have seen a Jurassic Park movie in a long time, and it's fair to say that it has been dearly missed by the casual audience. A shoe-in for at least eight-hundred million, and that's at least, considering the first one recently was re-released and allowed to make one-billion.

The Fantastic Four - The Fantastic Four isn't the kind-of movie that is likely to be in the top-five highest grossing movies of all-time, but it's going to make a lot of money all the same. The first movie made 330m and the sequel almost matched that. There's a negative stigma directed toward The Fantastic Four series ever-since because of the low-quality of each film. However, this is a remake, and with the rejuvenated interest in superhero movies, and the fact that they might be doing some sort-of crossover with the X-Men, I think it'll be able to at least match what the original made.

Ted 2 - The first Ted movie ended up being the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all-time. While it isn't often that a sequel out-grosses the original, that can be said about another R-rated movie series called Hangover. It all depends on how they choose to advertise this movie. Before that though, I am guessing it makes about 400m, which would honestly be a good success.


We're now at the second-half of the year.
Total So Far: 4,200,000,000


Terminator - Terminator Salvation left a bitter taste in the mouth of a lot of fans of the original series, but it still managed to leave with 371m in box-office. A lot of this depends on speculation, because it's difficult to cite whether this movie will do good depending on a certain variable - will it have Arnold Schwarzenegger? If it does, it's fair to suggest it may very well make as much as 750m. It's a remake, so it'll reach out to a new audience, but it'd have Arnold, so it's still bring in the hardcore fans. If it doesn't, and it has someone like Dwayne Johnson, perhaps, I still expect it to make 600m. I'll shot in the middle and say it makes 675m.

Minions - The Penguins of Madagascar don't have the same following that the Minions do, that's a fact that I don't think very many will dispute. All the same, Minions aren't impervious to the fatal shot that most spin-offs have, and it will most likely not make as much as Despicable Me 2. I suspect 600m is still in its reach. (That's a little more than one the first one made.)

Batman vs. Superman - The name is pending, however, the variable is unchanging in the Man of Steel sequel. It is going to have Batman. Christopher Nolan's version of the Batman was able to make one-billion on two separate occasions, whereas Superman was able to make six-hundred million. Obviously, you can't put them together to find your box-office total, but I really do believe this movie is going to be able to make 1.3 billion. There's a lot of love for Batman, (and Superman) and a lot of love for the potential Justice League.

Antman - This movie is very difficult to predict because there's no easy way of knowing what Marvel's stance will be after The Avengers 2. The immediate assumption is that it'll be positive, and while the interest for Antman may be scarce, I think that we'll see a bump in interest the same way that we did with Thor. Of course, with a lower degree. 400m.

Assassin's Creed - I can't really say what this movie will make, however, it has a large backing, and that alone will be enough for it to out-gross another movie adaptive from a UbiSoft game, Prince of Persia, which made over 300m. I guess it will probably make about 500m, more if it's actually any good.

Fifth Bourne film - The series once starring Matt Damon has lost a lot of its financial prowess with making Jeremy Renner the protagonist in the last movie. I suspect this, and viewer fatigue, will ultimately force this movie to continue a downward spiral. I expect 250m for this movie.

The Smurfs 2 - The first movie was hated, and the second movie was hated. The first movie made a lot of money, and the second one made a lot of money, but a lot less than the first. This sounds a lot like the Chipmunks movies, and so, I am going to assume the downward spiral continues, and the movie only makes 250m in-comparison to the 563 and 346 of the last movies.

Hotel Transylvania 2 - Hotel Transylvania ended up making more money than any other Adam Sandler movie. I expect it'll have a downfall similar to Growns Ups 2, and make 250m. Which is still an admirable amount.

New James Bond - Skyfall was very fortunate to have made as much money as it did. It's unlikely that they catch lightning in a bottle, however, I think it'll still easily make 600m.

Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 - Probably 200m.

Kung Fu Panda 3 - The second movie made more than the first, but it has been awhile. I think it'll make 500m.

New Mission Impossible - Two of the movies have made over 500m, I think this one will lag a bit because of age and audience-fatigue but will still make 450m.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay pt.1 - Catching Fire is expected to make somewhere north of 800m, assuming that Mockingjay rides the momentum, I see no reason it couldn't match that like the Harry Potter's matched each-other.

Star Wars: Episode VII - I think this movie is going to sell a ****-load, and I don't know what else to say about it. There is the backing of Disney, the built-in audience, and so many other variables. I think it's going to make 1.5 billion, and I wouldn't be surprised if it made something north of that.

Others: The Jungle Book, Peanuts, and The Good Dinosaur are also being released, but I have nothing to say. They'd probably make a bit.

First of all, great job with this man. Very insightful and well though out analysis.

I have no doubt that you're right. 2015 is going to be a massive year for blockbusters. As a fan of superhero flicks, this will be an extremely strong year, lots to fill up on.

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-Daniel, There Will Be Blood

These articles are a bit outdated but they make pretty good points about how so many blockbusters could lead to the Hollywood implosion that Spielberg and Lucas predicted.

http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/2015...usters-of-2015

http://www.cracked.com/quick-fixes/4...rst-year-ever/

http://bryanwashere.tumblr.com/post/...ywood-implodes

Some of these movies are pretty much sure bets; Avengers 2, Batman vs. Superman, Hunger Games, and of course Star Wars but if there isn't some schedule finagling then 2015 will most likely be a banner year for flops. I don't know about Hollywood imploding but some studios might end up closing. People just don't go to the movies often enough to support all these big budget movies.

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You will find that if you look for the light, you can often find it. But if you look for the dark, that is all you will ever see.
Iroh

Possible, but I believe that this will be a year that brings more importance to going to the theatah!

I am curious to know which "big movie" will flop or underperform

I think it's safe to say that it'll be more than one. At least, I am sure there will be a few that don't meet expectations.

I have a feeling Star Wars will underperform by studio's expectations

I don't agree. I think it'll be astronomical, personally. I suppose time will tell.

So, you are comparing the box office totals in the US in 2011, 2012 and 2013 with the global box office totals of the major blockbusters you expect to see in 2015. What's the point of comparison?

A more interesting comparison would be counting the number of movies that made more than something like 300 million in each year and trying to estimate how many would surpass that number.

Interesting fact: I watched about 230 movies in 2013, out of these, 3 were released in 2013.

It depends on how high their expectations are but I’d be surprised if Star Wars 7 makes less than a billion or so, especially if it’s in 3D. Terminator 5: Milk that Cash Cow, Jurassic Park 4: Our Fences Suck, and Fantastic Four: Fourth Time Probably Isn’t The Charm seem like the riskier movies to me since those franchises have been dormant for so long.

I wouldn't refer to it as any kind of literature.

No, I was comparing the box-office totals worldwide in 2011, 2012, and 2013 with the global box-office prediction that I had for 2015. This is a section of the forum partially dedicated to predictions, I made predictions, nothing more and nothing less. However, I will offer you this little nugget, if you question the point of this thread, and seem eager to offer nothing more than what would have been more interesting. I beseech that you make a thread of your own, and share some of your insight. I'd love to hear it, sincerely.

One of those movies is going to flop.

The four big movies are Avengers 2,Superman vs Batman,Star Wars and Bond 24.All of them will do huge numbers but I think Star Wars will perform below expectations.Not domestically but in foreign markets.That's just my guess though.

It's going to be like 12 where we have had 4 billion dollar movies.One performers as expected(Hobbit),two over performed(Avengers and James Bond) and one slightly underperformed(TDKR).

No. The 2011-2013 data is for North America only. Global box office is around 35 billion dollars. Several thousand movies are released every year and it's impossible to predict how much global box office will vary based on the release of a few major blockbusters.

Can you provide something of proof, if so, I will stand as corrected, fair and simple. I can make mistakes, however, I stand by my remark that if you believe you can make a better thread, then instead of dissecting another, you should contribute your own. That would be greatly appreciated, because as said, I am curious for your opinion, all you did was critique a very small part of a very large thread which was about how much money that I believe each movie would make, and you completely ignored the subject at-hand and the discussion throughout it.

Poor 2014 - gets no love.

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^Maleficent. Nuff said.

I don't know, 2014 is going to have a good year, there's a lot of blockbusters, it's simply that not a lot of movies that I believe are "SURE" thing to make over a billion like Avengers, Batman vs. Superman, and Star Wars.

Lots and lots of trash to come in 2015.

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Have you ever held a lion in your arms? I have. He smelled funky.

There are maybe five films slated for 2014 I want to see. Maybe three in 2015. Tons of studio crap. Makes me sick to even think about it. The worst writers, producers, directors ever in the history of film are working today.