MoFo Fantasy Football 2019 - The Regular Season

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A system of cells interlinked
What a weird year. I've had to put a number of "Lowest Score" entries into the league record book this season. Seems like things are more boom-or-bust than ever.

Theorycrafting reason: teams are putting more emphasis on gameplan, so when they have a marginal edge, they exploit it like mad, which means more games where one dude gets all the work (or TDs), leading to wild swings.
Case in point: Last night, The Vikings figured out that if they ran extra blockers to one side and let Cook blast off, he was gobbling up giant chunks of field on almost every run. The Cowboys didn't have an answer, so they leaned on it all night. As soon as they got into the red zone, they threw the ball to Kyle Rudolph(!!!) for the score. He wasn't covered very well, because Kyle is all washed up, or something...

Dude isn't even owned in our 14-team league during a season with bad TE depth overall.
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"There’s absolutely no doubt you can be slightly better tomorrow than you are today." - JBP



"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."



Yeah, that seems to be happening more. I noticed it first because of Rodgers and the Pack, where they'd give Jones four TDs one game, Rodgers would score like six the next, and then go back down to zero with Jones running in for three. Seems like it's very opponent-centric. I wonder if that's the next level of fantasy football skill.
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A system of cells interlinked
When I went to bed, my opponent's kicker had 1 point. I wake up, and I had lost the match.

Them's the breaks!



When I went to bed, my opponent's kicker had 1 point. I wake up, and I had lost the match.

Them's the breaks!
Your 138 points is also the 15th-highest losing score ever. As well as tied for the 27th-closest margin of victory.



A system of cells interlinked
Your 138 points is also the 15th-highest losing score ever. As well as tied for the 27th-closest margin of victory.
I am actually glad I lost by 1.02 points, instead of 0.02 points. That would have been a real bite in the ass.



I am actually glad I lost by 1.02 points, instead of 0.02 points. That would have been a real bite in the ass.
I think I lost in the championship final one season here to Fabulous by less than a point. It was more like a gnaw on the ass



Hard to believe there's only three games left before the fantasy playoffs, this weekend included. My team was on a pretty good roll for awhile, four straight victories, 120+ each game. That came to an end last week. Even though I've had a good season, I probably need to win 2 of these last 3 to make the playoffs, due to the parity of our league.

Not feeling confident about this weekend's match-up. I normally pride myself on having great depth, but as Yoda mentioned awhile back, everyone's gotten much savvier about playing the waiver wire. So many times I've gone to put in a claim for the hot waiver wire adds of the week, only to find that someone in our league picked them up a week or two prior. As a result, if any of my starters are injured or on a bye, it's hard for me to replace them. This week I'm starting players in whom I have zero faith (Ballage, Duke Johnson, Deebo Samuel -- ), while going up against the top team in our league.

Guess all I can do is cram several horseshoes up my anal canal and hope for the best.
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Yeah, honestly, I'm happy with my play in general, but one of the reasons I had so much success in the first decade of this league was outworking most of the league on the wire. It didn't always matter, but sometimes it really helped. It's been much harder to find an edge there the last 2-3 seasons. That happens to coincide with me having less time to devote to running the team than I did in the early days, too, but the average owner engagement and waiver savvy is definitely up.

Anyway, I'm in the same position as you, need at least two of three, and maybe all three because I had a couple of atrocious point totals that'll probably get me on any tiebreakers. We'll see. Definitely a weird year overall, everything more boom-and-bust than in years past.



Projection-wise, I was a big underdog this week, but I have a slim chance of pulling off a victory tonight. I'll need Hunter Henry to have a very good game (he's yet to score under 11 points since returning from injury, so I'm confident he outscores his projection). The harder part is going to be withstanding Mahomes on the otherside.

Yeah, honestly, I'm happy with my play in general . . .
I thought you'd won the league after that trade for Saquon a few weeks ago. I was pretty annoyed about it, too, since at the time I was planning on making an offer for him to see if I could get him on an injury discount, but you beat me to it. I think it was still a good trade for you, but Saquon clearly hasn't been 100% since returning, so it wasn't the power-shifting movie I feared. I also thought you'd robbed The Paper Curtain in your most recent trade, but Kittle hasn't played since, and Kenyan Drake is shockingly getting the majority of touches over David Johnson now, so that trade hasn't turned out at all like I expected.



I thought you'd won the league after that trade for Saquon a few weeks ago. I was pretty annoyed about it, too, since at the time I was planning on making an offer for him to see if I could get him on an injury discount, but you beat me to it. I think it was still a good trade for you, but Saquon clearly hasn't been 100% since returning, so it wasn't the power-shifting movie I feared. I also thought you'd robbed The Paper Curtain in your most recent trade, but Kittle hasn't played since, and Kenyan Drake is shockingly getting the majority of touches over David Johnson now, so that trade hasn't turned out at all like I expected.
I'll be sure to link people to this post (and half a dozen like it over the years) the next time someone gets mad at a trade I make. Truth is these moves blow up in our faces all the time, especially when injuries are involved. If Barkley comes back and is 100%, then I timed it great and make out like a bandit. If he comes back too early (which as you said, he clearly did), not only do I not win big, but I actually lose because I'm fooled into thinking I have RB covered when I don't, leading to me moving Drake, which led to me needing to use a waiver dude this week. So it goes. Quite a chain reaction that turned out to be.

Most people (not saying you, naturally) when judging other people's trades really fail to accurately value uncertainty. Or how valuable even moderately decent backs are to people who don't have them.

But yeah, in both cases I took big swings around injuries because I thought that was my best chance of winning. I didn't think I'd be in such a dogfight to even make the playoffs, but so it goes.



I also thought you'd robbed The Paper Curtain in your most recent trade, but Kittle hasn't played since, and Kenyan Drake is shockingly getting the majority of touches over David Johnson now, so that trade hasn't turned out at all like I expected.
I went back and forth in my head on this trade like a million times. I am typically one who does not trade much if at all, usually to my detriment. Obviously I will not know the final result of it for a couple more weeks, but it all came down to numbers. The behind the scenes trade talk was a bit different than what it wound up being but I decided my team's status quo would put me a win or two short of the playoffs whereas after the trade I might get in. So far it looks good, but we will see how it plays out.

Kinda like making it to the final table short stacked is better than not making it at all, hope I get in.




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“The gladdest moment in human life, methinks, is a departure into unknown lands.” – Sir Richard Burton



That Lamar Jackson seems like a pretty good player. Is he still available in this league? Man, this league looks about as tight as it ever has. Should be fun down the stretch!
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We are both the source of the problem and the solution, yet we do not see ourselves in this light...



There is something to be said for the randomness in H2H. It gives the underdog or inexperienced owner more of a chance of success. I feel roto works perfectly for Fantasy Baseball, baseball is a 6 month long investment, but Football is all about Any Given Sunday, where you can't truly say there's a sure thing. Maybe with the Nationals winning the world series there isn't one in baseball either, but roto does seem to suit baseball better. I feel the baseball league has overtaken the football league in popularity around here, so maybe roto style is the way to go. I dont know, am undecided.