Oscar Nomination Predictions

These are my predictions, and not necessarily what I would choose myself. The Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards changed my mind about a few things. For example, I wouldn't have predicted a Best Picture nomination for The Others before The GGs. However, the GGs and SAG didn't make me pick Queen Latifah.

Best Picture
Chicago
The Hours
The Pianist
Gangs of New York
Far From Heaven

My dark horse among my picks is Far From Heaven. Some close calls are: About Schmidt, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Frida and Road to Perdition.

Best Actress
Renee Zellweger - Chicago
Nicole Kidman - The Hours
Diane Lane - Unfaithful
Julainne Moore - Far From Heaven
Jennifer Westfeldt - Kissing Jessica Stein

Westfeldt is a HUGE dark horse. Some other possible nominations include: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Meryl Streep, Nia Vardalos, Salma Hayek, and Catherine Zeta-Jones.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt
Adrien Brody - The Pianist
Richard Gere - Chicago
Michael Caine - The Quiet American

No Dark horse among my picks. Some actors who came close are: Nicholas Cage, Hugh Grant, Tom Hanks, Robin Williams and Kieran Culkin.

Best Director
Stephen Daldry - The Hours
Martin Scorsese - Gangs of New York
Rob Marshall - Chicago
Roman Polanksi - The Pianist
Todd Haynes - Far From Heaven

No Dark horse. Some other hopefuls include: Alexander Payne, Spike Jonze, Stephen Spielberg, Sam Mendes, Paul Thomas Anderson and Peter Jackson.

Best Supporting Actor
Chris Cooper - Adaptation
Dennis Quaid - Far From Heaven
Ed Harris - The Hours
Christopher Walken - Catch Me If you Can
John C. Reilly - Chicago

Reilly is my Dark horse. Some who might get a nomination include: Alfred Molina, Paul Newman, Willem Dafoe, Ray Liotta, Tom Hanks and Dennis Haysbert.

Best Supporting Actress
Meryl Streep - Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt
Julianne Moore - The Hours
Michelle Pfeiffer - White Oleander

Michelle Pfeiffer might be a bit of a dark horse. Queen Latifah, Patricia Clarkson, Edie Falco, Cameron Diaz, Tovah Feldshuh and Toni Collette are all hopefuls.

__________________
One of the biggest myths told is that being intelligent is the absence of the ability to do stupid things.

I'll take a stab at 'em...


BEST PICTURE
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nic Cage, Adaptation
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Richard Gere, Chicago
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

BEST ACTRESS
Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Nina Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Renee Zellweger, Chicago

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours
Philip Seymour Hoffman, 25th Hour
John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Cameron Diaz, Gangs of New York
Catherine Zeta Jones, Chicago
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Meryl Streep, Adaptation

BEST DIRECTOR
Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

BEST SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Paul Thomas Anderson, Punch-Drunk Love
Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
Mark Romanek, One Hour Photo
M. Night Shyamalan, Signs
Burr Steers, Igby Goes Down

BEST SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
Jay Cocks, Steve Zallian & Ken Lonergan, Gangs of New York
Bill Condon, Chicago
David Hare, The Hours
Charlie & Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Stephen Sinclair & Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers



The screenplay categories are actually the most difficult to gauge this year. There are waaaaay too many adaptations vying for those five spots, and very few original screenplays among the likely nominated films and performances in the other big categories, leaving those five original spots pretty wide open.

Otherwise, eh.

__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra

I really hope "Roger Dodger" gets a mention for Screenplay, and Best actor.
Y Tu Mama Tambien sould get one for "Cinematography" as well.

One Hour Photo... I guarantee, will not be nominated.

__________________
"I know a man who was born with his heart on the outside. Every man's worst fear, he also had heavy hands. he couldn't touch his lovers face, he couldn't hold a baby." - Buck 65

BTW, have you all seen the Peter O'Toole hubub? The Academy wants to give him an honarary Oscar this year. O'Toole wrote them a polite note saying he wasn't interested in accepting, that he still feels like his career is vital, and if they want to give him an Oscar he'll "earn" one for an acting role. He's seventy-years-old, and he says maybe when he's eighty the award'll be more appropriate. You tell 'em, Pete!



O'Toole has been nominated for seven Best Actor Oscars - though it has been twenty years now since his last, and he's never won the award. His nominations were for Lawrence of Arabia (1962), Becket (1964), The Lion in Winter (1968), Goodbye, Mr. Chips (1969), The Ruling Class (1972), The Stunt Man (1980) and My Favorite Year (1982).

At this point the Academy has said they'll give the Honarary Oscar as part of the ceremony whether O'Toole shows up or not, and he can collect it if and whenever he wishes. O'Toole will probably come around to the idea by the telecast in March - because wouldn't it be more fun to say how untimely it is in person in front of millions of people and Hollywood's elite rather than by post, but I love that initial reaction anyway.

Oooh. Now I have something to look forward to in March. If all the wrong people win for political reasons, at leas I'll get to watch a heap of O'Toole clips at some point during the evening.

The Academy are such a little people. A silly people.

__________________
www.esotericrabbit.com

Yeah, greedy, barbarous and cruel too. Plus, as a group, their taste generally sucks.




Less than a week now until the nominations are announced. Anybody else want to make some predictions? There's no money on this, BTW, it's just for fun.

I'll do mine when I get home this evening. Wait ye in anticipation.

BEST PICTURE:
This will either be the year of "the Hours or "Far from Heaven"

BEST DIRECTOR
Whichever of the above films win... the same director will be included.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Adaptation" or " Far from heaven"... "Roger Dodger" better at least get a nod.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Hours"

BEST ACTOR
Nick Cage - "Adaptation" or "Daniel Day Lewis" (Gangs of New York).

BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore "Far from heaven"

SUP ACTOR
Chris Cooper "Adaptation"

SUP ACTRESS
Nicole Kidman (The Hours)... she should have won at least once in the last two years. Finally she will get one.

These are not MY picks, I have yet to see some of the films... though this seems right.

Great, Travis. Now try and do Oscar nomination predictions instead of Oscar winner predictions. You're 1/5 or 2/5 of the way on most of your picks above!

Here we go. Not long until they come out now. I am excited. You can tell as much from my lack of !s. Yawn. Ha. ! I'm so weird.

Meanwhile.


BEST PICTURE:
The Hours
Gangs Of New York
Chicago
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Adaptation

BEST ACTOR (LEAD):
Adrien Brody The Pianist
Nicolas Cage Adaptation
Jack Nicholson About Schmidt
Richard Gere Chicago
Daniel Day-Lewis Gangs Of New York

BEST ACTRESS (LEAD):
Nicole Kidman The Hours
Renee Zellweger Chicago
Salma Hayek Frida
Julianne Moore Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep The Hours

BEST ACTOR (SUPPORTING):
Chris Cooper Adaptation
Ed Harris The Hours
John C. Reilly Chicago
Paul Newman Road To Perdition
Andy Serkis The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

BEST ACTRESS SUPPORTING):
Meryl Streep Adaptation
Catherine Zeta Jones Chicago
Kathy Bates About Schmidt
Queen Latifah Chicago
Cameron Diaz Gangs Of New York

BEST DIRECTOR:
Spike Jonze Adaptation
Steven Daldry The Hours
Rob Marshall Chicago
Martin Scorsese Gangs Of New York
Peter Jackson The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):
Mark Romanek One Hour Photo
Todd Haynes Far From Heaven
Paul Thomas Anderson Punch-Drunk Love
M. Night Shyamalan Signs
Pedro Almodóvar Talk To Her

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED):
David Hare The Hours
Charlie Kaufman / Donald Kaufman Adaptation
Bill Condon Chicago
Alexander Payne / Jim Taylor About Schmidt
Jay Cocks / Steve Zallian / Ken Lonergan Gangs Of New York

When are they going to announce the nominations? I'm curious about the Best Foreign Film category since I want to know if "Lilja 4-Ever" will be nominated.

__________________
The novelist does not long to see the lion eat grass. He realizes that one and the same God created the wolf and the lamb, then smiled, "seeing that his work was good".

--------

They had temporarily escaped the factories, the warehouses, the slaughterhouses, the car washes - they'd be back in captivity the next day but now they were out - they were wild with freedom. They weren't thinking about the slavery of poverty. Or the slavery of welfare and food stamps. The rest of us would be all right until the poor learned how to make atom bombs in their basements.

I believe that it is Monday night American time because the rags over here keep mentioning early Tuesday morning [which is tomorrow morning, my time]. My predictions are only just in time, put it that way.

The nominations are announced at 8:30am EST/5:30am PST tomorrow morning, Tuesday February 11th. What is that, 12:30am Wednesday for you Aussies?

Probably. It it 11:47 PM right now on Monday. So a while yet then?

Twenty-four hours from.....NOW!

No, from right NOW!

They're read off surprisingly fast. It takes less than ten minutes once they hit that podium. If only the ceremony was structured the same way.

The wonderful world of tedious name calling. Take photos! They're going to say a name now! Look at them go! Such grace! Such flair!

Not even I know where this post is going. I need sleep. Bad. Now.

No...NOW!

I should put a bullet in my face and save someone else the seventeen cents at Kmart...

8:30 am EST tomorrow. Ok, that's 2:30 pm, swedish time. Thanks.

Not counting the screenplay categories, I got twenty-four of the thirty possibles for the acting, picture and director categories. In fact, I picked four of the five nominees in each of those six categories. 80% accuracy there.

The screenplays were fu*ked. Gangs of New York is an adaptation - sorry, Academy. I only managed five of the ten possible there, and one was in the wrong category (according to them anyway).


So my grand total was 29 correct out of 40 nomination spots: 73%. Eh, should have done a little better than that. If I had known Gangs and Wedding were being considered "originals", that would have freed-up another spot for me and likely boosted the score up to eight out of ten, which would have kept me at 80%. Oh, well.


Anywho....