+3
These playoff games are hard enough to pick with the spread and now these two look like toss ups straight up. I would tend to favor the home team in each case but I wouldn't bet on either.
The Rams are in trouble if it boils down to Brees vs Goff so they'll continue to try to run. NO has the #1 rush defense but they just lost their best D lineman for the season, and the stat could be a little deceiving since many teams have abandoned the run to play catch up. If the Rams can run like they did last week, they'll have a great chance, and the line has gone down to 3 which is an ominous sign for NO. I think the Ram's loss of their best receiver hurts them in this game, especially with NO having a shut down corner. This makes it less risky to put an extra man up front to help control the run. I think the Saints win.
NE is in a very usual position for them as they are healthier than they've been all year and healthier than past years at this point in the season. They played their best game of the year last week, and in retrospect it was a very good matchup for them. The key to beating the Pats has always been to pressure Brady, but without blitzing because he's the best ever against it. SD needed their two great edge rushers, Ingram and Bosa, to have a dominating game. The problem is that they're edge rushers, so even if they were effective, Brady excels at stepping up in the pocket. KC has a terrible defense in general, but they've actually been quite good at home. The biggest advantage of having home field translates to the defensive line because with the crowd noise, they can get a jump on the snap count. KC probably has the loudest stadium along with Denver and Seattle. The big problem for NE is that KC's pressure comes right up the middle, and Brady does not have the ability to escape laterally. NE's O line will need to play as good as they did last week and be extra disciplined. If KC doesn't get to the QB, they will definitely change things up unlike SD. I think you can mix in a well timed blitz against this season's Patriots because they lack explosive playmakers. I would expect to see a lot more of Cordarrelle Patterson who was practically invisible last week. The Pats have been trying to set up the pass with the run, but I think this week they will try to set up the run with the pass. Much more than KC, they have to play a great game which will be difficult to do two weeks in a row. On the other hand, KC really doesn't have to because they are so explosive. For this reason I give the edge to the Chiefs.