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Super Bowl Odds

Detroit Lions, +275
Kansas City Chiefs, +350
Baltimore Ravens, +600
Buffalo Bills, +600
Philadelphia Eagles, +700

After that, big dip to +1600 or worse for the rest.

For context, +275 works out to a little less than a 27% percent chance. Basically every year, even if there's a clear best team, they're usually no better than a coin flip to win versus the rest of the field. In this case it's about a coin flip that either of the top two will win against everyone else, and the percentages are really tight.

Obviously the games themselves may be more or less entertaining, but going into it, this feels like one of the most exciting and variable playoffs I can remember over the last decade or two.

My thinking is there's really no meaningful difference among the top teams, and the odds are mostly reflecting how relatively easy or difficult the path to get there is. I don't think Vegas sees the Chiefs and Lions as significantly better than the next few, but they get to skip a game, so they're higher by default. And the Lions get a moderate edge on top of that because the AFC is particularly top-heavy this year.



Also, man, do I love it when fantasy football ends and I can just watch as a fan of the game itself.

I can mostly do this even with the Steelers involved, especially when I don't think they have any realistic shot at making even a deep run (nevermind winning it all). But once they're out it gets even easier. Really looking forward to enjoying football in and of itself rather than having my brain start running calculations on fantasy implications unbidden.



I'll take Detroit over Buffalo for my SB prediction (cheering for KC though)



Trying Real Hard To Be The Shepherd
I don’t like all this Buffalo talk. Everyone please stop picking them to go to the Super Bowl. Yeah, I’m that guy. I will be wearing two different colored socks and my jersey on inside out all playoffs.
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Letterboxd



Predictions:

AFC
Broncos @ Bills
Steelers @ Ravens
Chargers @ Texans

Chargers @ Chiefs
Ravens @ Bills

Bills @ Chiefs

NFC
Packers @ Eagles
Commanders @ Bucs
Vikings @ Rams

Commanders @ Lions
Vikings @ Eagles

Eagles @ Lions

Super Bowl
Eagles vs. Chiefs

I'm an Eagles fan, so obviously I'm biased, but I think they're the most complete team in the NFC. #1 defense in the league; excellent against the pass and rush; arguably the best offensive line; excellent playmakers; best RB; dynamic QB; playoff experience. Special teams is my only concern, as Jake Elliot hasn't been very reliable this season. They finished the season 14-3, but two of those losses can be directly attributed to inexplicable drops late in the 4th quarter (Saquon against Atlanta; Devonta Smith against Washington) that would've sealed each game -- and I doubt the Washington game would've even been that close if Hurts hadn't suffered a concussion early in the 1st quarter. They had some quality wins against fellow playoff teams like the Rams, Ravens and Steelers. I think this Eagles team is better than the team that made the Super Bowl two years ago, particularly in the secondary. Yet I feel like they're flying under the radar a bit. The Lions are intimidating, but I think all the key injuries they've suffered will be their undoing. The Vikings are a very good team, but I can't buy them as a legitimate contender with Sam Darnold. The Commanders and Packers have bright futures, but it's not their time yet. Bucs are scrappy but benefitted from a weak division. Rams are a dark horse but I don't think they have enough talent defensively to make a deep run. Eagles all the way!

As for the AFC, I don't think the Texans, Broncos or Steelers are contenders. I could envision the Chargers surprising people and advancing to the AFC Championship, but it's going to be the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs never looked particularly impressive, and it felt like they were essentially figuring themselves out most of the season with an offense that was often stuck in neutral, yet still they finished as the #1 seed. This team just doesn't lose. They're battle tested, resilient, and they always seem to make big plays in big moments (and if they don't, the refs tend to bail them out anyway). I'd rather see the Ravens or Bills represent the AFC, but no team has ever won 3 consecutive Super Bowls, so if the Chiefs pull off the three-peat, it'll be cool to witness history, I guess. Plus I'll always adore Andy Reid, so I'm not as fatigued by their success as a lot of people.
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I don't think Herbert will ever win anything.
I'm just glad he's better than Joe Burrow.



Steelers were lucky to make it a game at all in the second half.

The "Fire Tomlin!" stuff was pretty silly when it started years ago, but at this point you have to wonder if the high floor he manages comes at the cost of a low ceiling.



I think everyone took the Ravens. Couple brackets busted immediately by the Chargers loss, though.

If I were an Eagles man I might be more concerned about today's game than anything in the next couple of rounds. The Pack seem to match up better against them than most, since they do such an incredible job of preventing the big plays the Eagles thrive on. They're gonna have to blitz Love a lot more than they've been blitzing all year, too. Could be a really scrappy, cautious game if both teams do their normal thing.



Steelers were lucky to make it a game at all in the second half.

The "Fire Tomlin!" stuff was pretty silly when it started years ago, but at this point you have to wonder if the high floor he manages comes at the cost of a low ceiling.
There's a lot of chatter out there. I think it's time for a change.

https://thespun.com/nfl/espn-nfl-ana...ng-to-be-fired



Yeah, I think I agree. On one hand it seems nuts to say someone who always coaches a contending team/frequent playoff team should be fired, on the other hand the evidence is piling up that whatever he does to make that happen is either distinct from (or somehow in opposition to) actually making deep runs.

The offense has been mediocre-to-bad for awhile, and before that I think you'd have to argue it underperformed its talent level a fair bit, too. Hard not to think Tomlin, originally a defensive coach, is unrelated to that, even though the OC probably hires haven't been great, either.



Bills starting to salt this one away. On to the ravens.



I dunno man, Bills seem perfectly capable of winning that.

Initial line actually has them as slight favorites, even, though I wouldn't have expected that.