Oscar's Best Picture 2020

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Which willbe Oscar's next Best Picture?
4.65%
2 votes
Ford v Ferrari
6.98%
3 votes
The Irishman
2.33%
1 votes
Jojo Rabbit
11.63%
5 votes
Joker
2.33%
1 votes
Little Women
2.33%
1 votes
Marriage Story
37.21%
16 votes
1917
13.95%
6 votes
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
18.60%
8 votes
Parasite
43 votes. You may not vote on this poll




I was disappointed by OUATIH but didn’t hate it.
I’ll be getting to the other 3 soon as I can, prob Jojo Rabbit next.

When you are done with the list, probably QT's movie might drop even lower!
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Has anyone been able to see Les Misarbles, the french nominee? I just cant find it anywhere.



28 days...6 hours...42 minutes...12 seconds
Ford v Ferrari has this one in the bag with all its other nominations right?
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Other than sound mixing, I cant really say it has a chance to win anything else unfortunately as good as the movie is.



Finished 1917. Give the Oscars now! The Brits just do it so well. It is this Vs Parasite for me. But since this mostly goes to Hollywood, I would say 1917.



It is winning all the technical awards too for sure. I just don't remember the Joker's background score, other than it being very good. But this one was amazing.



Just found this:




Which one's are left?



The first two might topple Joker for you! Do give the them try before the Oscars.





1917 just won the Producers Guild of America's Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. Its momentum towards Oscar glory continues.

The PGA began handing out their annual awards in 1990, starting with Driving Miss Daisy. Since then the PGA winner and the Academy choice for Best Picture have matched 21 out of 30 times. There was a period at the beginning of the 21st century when they mismatched four out of six years including three in a row (The Aviator/Million Dollar Baby, Brokeback Mountain/Crash, Little Miss Sunshine/The Departed). It then had a streak of eight matches until the back-to-back misses of The Big Short/Spotlight and La La Land/Moonlight. The last two seasons matched with The Shape of Water and Green Book.

The last two war movies to win the PGA were The Hurt Locker and Saving Private Ryan. The Hurt Locker went on to win Best Picture but Ryan was infamously beaten by Shakespeare in Love. We'll see what Oscar has in store but this win definitely gives 1917 the edge.
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Well, we officially have a front runner.

As Holden Pike mentioned above, since the preferential ballot era of both PGA and The Academy Awards started, the two have matched 8/10 times. Only PGA winners The Big Short and La La Land (and Gravity, the year it tied with 12 Years a Slave) went on to lose Best Picture at the Oscars. So, the only other film I see winning by this point is probably Parasite, since it's been nominated for every guild and has a pretty passionate support base that something like Roma didn't have last year. Depends which film ends up winning director, though. And you can never count out an original screenplay win for either Parasite or Hollywood.

This whole thing really disappoints me, too. I haven't even seen it yet and already the hype is starting to overwhelm me. Like, is it really that good? Better than The Irishman, Parasite, or Tarantino? Are they trying to make some statement on war because the whole kerfuffle with Iran at the moment? Sam Mendes has already won an Oscar and you have Tarantino and Bong Joon-ho right there, two filmmakers who made two of the best films of the year, not even mentioning the fact that Tarantino has never won for director or picture (Joon-ho hasn't even been recognized by The Academy until now).

The only thing hindering its chances by this point is the fact that it's the first film to win the PGA with no SAG nominations, and the first since Slumdog Millionaire to do it without any Oscar noms for acting. Then again, both The Shape of Water and Green Book ended up winning best picture with no ensemble nomination. Who's to say that 1917 can't pull it off without any SAG or Oscar nominations for acting? It got nominated for original screenplay despite consensus that it wouldn't. Not to mention that I think by this point, PGA is probably the better indicator since it's top prize has been more accurate than the SAG ensemble has been this decade. But is an SAG shut-out really that irrelevant? Unless Parasite or Once Upon A Time In Hollywood wins something major like ensemble or DGA, then expect the answer to be "yes", and expect 1917 to be your Best Picture Winner.
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The SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast (which will be announced tonight) is NOT a corollary for Best Picture. They have been handing out that award since 1996 and its winner and Best Picture have only matched 11 out of 26 times. Out of the nine times this decade it has only matched four (The King's Speech, Argo, Birdman, and Spotlight). Less than 50% as an awards predictor is pretty useless. Black Panther won the SAG Cast award last year and if they ever crack open the numbers for the Oscars I would be shocked if Black Panther even finished in the top five for Best Picture. Same thing for Hidden Figures, The Help, and Inglourious Basterds and going back further SAG winners Gosford Park, The Full Monty, and The Birdcage. This SAG category usually has at least one and sometimes several nominees that aren't even on the Oscar ballot for Picture. This year it is Bombshell and the last several SAGs have seen Crazy Rich Asians, Mudbound, The Big Sick, Captain Fantastic, Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton, and Trumbo named. Best Ensemble was never really supposed to mimic Best Picture but it lazily gets thrown in there by the "Access Hollywood"s of the world. Don't buy into it.

Obviously the individual acting prizes are natural corollaries (Best Actor has matched at both awards 13 of the last 14 years, for example) but Cast does not equal Picture.



The Help might have run close, but the rest, I don't think so. I loved Beasts of No Nation, can't remember what other nominees were that year at the Oscars, but it wouldn't have been a bad choice. And considering it was this decade, which is on average poor, it should have made the cut.



An ensemble nomination, not a win, but a nomination can actually bode very well for any Best Picture winner, even if it doesn't win. I'm not sure that a single film this decade has gone on to win best picture without at least getting one SAG or Oscar nomination for acting.

And athough an ensemble win would definitely help, it depends on the landscape. 1917 isn't nominated for a single acting award in SAG or Oscar, but it's nominated for original screenplay (not a single Best Picture winner has not been nominated for screenplay since Titanic in 1997). I think what stranger is that 1917 has not gotten a single acting nomination at any major award show.



I finally watched Parasite. Highly overrated. The movie had a solid first half, or even two-thirds, but then it got weird and messy. The ending left me unsatisfied and disappointed.

I don't see it winning Best Picture at all. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917 for sure.
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