I consider myself a box office enthusiast, and in-response, I decided to take it upon myself to delve into a little research and create a list of films that I believe will officially see their end in 2016.
Keep in mind that numerous variables are factored into considering whether or not a film is a box-office success.
For instance, look at the first film on the list, Zoolander 2. Zoolander 2 made 56 million at the box-office from a budget of about 50 million. The first thought you might have is that the film received more than its budget. However, you have to consider that the marketing budget likely went North of around 20 million. The film now costs a lofty 70 million. This is an estimate, though, for a film that costs 35 - 75 million, it is often that the marketing budget costs at least half of what the film cost to make, I actually cut the film some slack. Not only this, but theaters receive a significant chunk of the profits. Oftentimes, it's about how much "muscle" a film has. Theater chains take precautions to protect themselves from bombs, and thereby, if a film is a disappoint, theaters can take somewhere around 55% of the profit. Theaters don't always take such a hefty sum and it depends. On opening weekend, the distributor can receive as much as 90% of the funds, but by the fourth weekend, they're reduced to more like half. Considering that Zoolander 2 was indeed a flop, you can safely assume that theaters protected themselves and, at the very least, half the profits went to them. (I'm not even factoring in that distributors receive less when a film's released overseas.) And, thus, Zoolander 2 cost 75 million and made somewhere around 30 million.
This isn't the only thing to consider in a film's profits though, either, because films receive a much stronger cut of the profits when their film is released on DVD and Blu-Ray. Not only that, but oftentimes, a film-series has synergy, that is, where the sum of its parts is promoted through the addition. When Zoolander 2 was released, it also promoted the first film's DVD and Blu-Ray sales in a substantial way.
Alas, according to The Numbers, Zoolander 2 only made about 3 million on DVD and Blu-Ray so far, and thus, it's not even close to enough to move the needle in the film's favor.
A circumstance where the DVD and Blu-Ray sales were very substantial would be with Batman v. Superman. The sales fortheir home-video release churned almost 70 million dollars in profit, in addition to the near 900 million in made in theaters.
2016 film series' that won't receive sequels:
- Zoolander 2 (56 million, budget 50 million)
- The Divergent Series: Allegiant (179 million, budget 110 million)
- The Huntsman: Winter's War (164.6 million, budget 115 million)
- Alice Through the Looking Glass (299 million, budget 170 million)
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (107.9 million, budget 35 million)
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (245.6 million, budget 135 million)
- Independence Day: Resurgence (389 million, budget 165 million)
- Ghostbusters (229 million, budget 144 million)
- Star Trek: Beyond (343 million, budget 185 million)
- Inferno (219 million, budget 75 million)
- Bad Santa 2 (22.8 million, budget 26 million)
- Blair Witch (45.2 million, budget 5 million)***
Notes:
- Unless severe budget cuts are made, (literally, cut in half) Divergent will not be returning to theaters. Rumors say that a TV movie will be made instead.
- Alice Through the Looking Glass was a definite disappointment, making less than one-third of what the first film did. And, not only that, but there's even less to adapt for a third.
- Neighbors 2 made less than half what the first film made and had twice the budget. It was a modest success, but not enough of a success for a sequel.
- TMNT 2 had a big marketing campaign to go along with its budget, but, unfortunately, the film made half of what the first film did. No chance on a sequel.
- Indendence Day 2 wasn't a complete and total failure, but, when considering the marketing that went into it, the film just didn't make the kind-of numbers to make a third film a possibility.)
- 144 million for production and a large amount on marketing, Ghostbusters was a huge disappointment.
- Heartbreaking as a big fan of the newer Star Trek films, with the same budget as Star Trek: Into Darkness, this film made 124 million less than its predecessor. The company initially had plans for a fourth film, but their intentions were said before the numbers came piling in. This iteration of the series will end as a trilogy, unless a miracle happens.)
- Inferno isn't a huge failure. The budget was smart. Angels & Demons posted a near-300 million decline from what Da Vinci Code made. In-response, the budget for Inferno was cut in half, in-comparison to the 150 million budget that Angels & Demons had. Thereby, Inferno isn't really a failure, but an intelligent swan song. The second film made nearly 300 million less than the first, the third film has made over 200 million less than the second. This is the last film they'll do.
- I can't confidently say whether or not there will be another Blair Witch film. In-terms of box-office success, Blair Witch actually churned a profit. The film grossed more than nine times its production budget and the marketing budget likely wasn't that much either. Still, Lionsgate was expecting a lot more profit. The first Blair Witch Project made over 200 million dollars with a way smaller budget. This situation reminds me of Sinister 2, a film that made 50 million dollars off a 10 million dollar budget. Even though the film was successful, Jason Blum said there was no chance of a third film. Simply put, it's a waste of resources and an unneeded undertaking to put money into a fourth Blair Witch film when it could be invested into “the next big thing”. I bet we'll get a Blair Witch remake, but this is a decade or so down the road.
Keep in mind that numerous variables are factored into considering whether or not a film is a box-office success.
For instance, look at the first film on the list, Zoolander 2. Zoolander 2 made 56 million at the box-office from a budget of about 50 million. The first thought you might have is that the film received more than its budget. However, you have to consider that the marketing budget likely went North of around 20 million. The film now costs a lofty 70 million. This is an estimate, though, for a film that costs 35 - 75 million, it is often that the marketing budget costs at least half of what the film cost to make, I actually cut the film some slack. Not only this, but theaters receive a significant chunk of the profits. Oftentimes, it's about how much "muscle" a film has. Theater chains take precautions to protect themselves from bombs, and thereby, if a film is a disappoint, theaters can take somewhere around 55% of the profit. Theaters don't always take such a hefty sum and it depends. On opening weekend, the distributor can receive as much as 90% of the funds, but by the fourth weekend, they're reduced to more like half. Considering that Zoolander 2 was indeed a flop, you can safely assume that theaters protected themselves and, at the very least, half the profits went to them. (I'm not even factoring in that distributors receive less when a film's released overseas.) And, thus, Zoolander 2 cost 75 million and made somewhere around 30 million.
This isn't the only thing to consider in a film's profits though, either, because films receive a much stronger cut of the profits when their film is released on DVD and Blu-Ray. Not only that, but oftentimes, a film-series has synergy, that is, where the sum of its parts is promoted through the addition. When Zoolander 2 was released, it also promoted the first film's DVD and Blu-Ray sales in a substantial way.
Alas, according to The Numbers, Zoolander 2 only made about 3 million on DVD and Blu-Ray so far, and thus, it's not even close to enough to move the needle in the film's favor.
A circumstance where the DVD and Blu-Ray sales were very substantial would be with Batman v. Superman. The sales fortheir home-video release churned almost 70 million dollars in profit, in addition to the near 900 million in made in theaters.
2016 film series' that won't receive sequels:
- Zoolander 2 (56 million, budget 50 million)
- The Divergent Series: Allegiant (179 million, budget 110 million)
- The Huntsman: Winter's War (164.6 million, budget 115 million)
- Alice Through the Looking Glass (299 million, budget 170 million)
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (107.9 million, budget 35 million)
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (245.6 million, budget 135 million)
- Independence Day: Resurgence (389 million, budget 165 million)
- Ghostbusters (229 million, budget 144 million)
- Star Trek: Beyond (343 million, budget 185 million)
- Inferno (219 million, budget 75 million)
- Bad Santa 2 (22.8 million, budget 26 million)
- Blair Witch (45.2 million, budget 5 million)***
Notes:
- Unless severe budget cuts are made, (literally, cut in half) Divergent will not be returning to theaters. Rumors say that a TV movie will be made instead.
- Alice Through the Looking Glass was a definite disappointment, making less than one-third of what the first film did. And, not only that, but there's even less to adapt for a third.
- Neighbors 2 made less than half what the first film made and had twice the budget. It was a modest success, but not enough of a success for a sequel.
- TMNT 2 had a big marketing campaign to go along with its budget, but, unfortunately, the film made half of what the first film did. No chance on a sequel.
- Indendence Day 2 wasn't a complete and total failure, but, when considering the marketing that went into it, the film just didn't make the kind-of numbers to make a third film a possibility.)
- 144 million for production and a large amount on marketing, Ghostbusters was a huge disappointment.
- Heartbreaking as a big fan of the newer Star Trek films, with the same budget as Star Trek: Into Darkness, this film made 124 million less than its predecessor. The company initially had plans for a fourth film, but their intentions were said before the numbers came piling in. This iteration of the series will end as a trilogy, unless a miracle happens.)
- Inferno isn't a huge failure. The budget was smart. Angels & Demons posted a near-300 million decline from what Da Vinci Code made. In-response, the budget for Inferno was cut in half, in-comparison to the 150 million budget that Angels & Demons had. Thereby, Inferno isn't really a failure, but an intelligent swan song. The second film made nearly 300 million less than the first, the third film has made over 200 million less than the second. This is the last film they'll do.
- I can't confidently say whether or not there will be another Blair Witch film. In-terms of box-office success, Blair Witch actually churned a profit. The film grossed more than nine times its production budget and the marketing budget likely wasn't that much either. Still, Lionsgate was expecting a lot more profit. The first Blair Witch Project made over 200 million dollars with a way smaller budget. This situation reminds me of Sinister 2, a film that made 50 million dollars off a 10 million dollar budget. Even though the film was successful, Jason Blum said there was no chance of a third film. Simply put, it's a waste of resources and an unneeded undertaking to put money into a fourth Blair Witch film when it could be invested into “the next big thing”. I bet we'll get a Blair Witch remake, but this is a decade or so down the road.