2018 Academy Awards

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We're a mere 6 weeks from the end of the year, with a number of awards bodies -- Indie Spirits, National Board of Review, Gotham Awards, then Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics' Choice -- announcing their nominees or winners soon and practically every film in contention except for The Post and Phantom Thread now seen by critics, prognosticators, and/or festival audiences. So it seems time for awards junkies (who, like me, typically think the Academy's taste is middlebrow to the point of mockery, but can't help watching anyway) to talk Oscars.

It's a tough year without a clear front runner I think, sometimes something like The Artist or Slumdog Millionaire is an obvious juggernaut from Summer on (and there is still a chance that could be Dunkirk) and sometimes it's tough to parse with a lot of splits like Spotlight/The Revenant/The Big Short in 2015 where even the night of the ceremony most couldn't predict a winner. But the films and performances seriously vying for awards have revealed themselves and a number of films, worthy and not, that are smaller or more difficult than the Academy typically acknowledges seem to have a serious chance this year.

Here's my Oscar predictions for the main 8 categories as of this week. I've broken them into surest bets, strong contenders, and long shots for most categories and ranked them by likelihood. Note your own predictions, or any particular film or performance you think I left out or am crazy for thinking has a shot below. As the Oscar race continues, we can update and also discuss the snubs, politics, eventual winners, what should have won, etc.


BEST PICTURE

Surest bets
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post

Strong contenders
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
Mudbound (right now I'd say these first 9 are our likely nominees)
Get Out

Serious possibilities
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
The Big Sick
Molly's Game
The Greatest Showman

Long shots
The Disaster Artist
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Blade Runner: 2049
Downsizing


BEST DIRECTOR

Surest bets
Christopher Nolan -Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro -The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg -The Post
Luca Guadagnino -Call Me By Your Name
Joe Wright -Darkest Hour

Strong contenders
Martin McDonagh -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Greta Gerwig -Lady Bird
Dee Rees -Mudbound
Paul Thomas Anderson -Phantom Thread
Jordan Peele -Get Out

Long shots
Sean Baker -The Florida Project
Patty Jenkins -Wonder Woman
Michael Gracey -The Greatest Showman
Denis Villeneuve -Blade Runner 2049
James Franco -The Disaster Artist


BEST ACTOR

Surest bets
Gary Oldman -Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis -Phantom Thread
James Franco -The Disaster Artist
Tom Hanks -The Post
Timothee Chalamet -Call Me By Your Name

Strong contenders
Jake Gyllenhaal -Stronger
Andrew Garfield -Breathe
Hugh Jackman -The Greatest Showman
Christian Bale -Hostiles
Daniel Kaluuya -Get Out

Long shots
Robert Pattinson -Good Time
Harry Dean Stanton -Lucky
Denzel Washington -Roman J Israel, Esq.
Matt Damon -Downsizing
Steve Carrell -Last Flag Flying or Battle of the Sexes


BEST ACTRESS

Surest bets
Frances McDormand -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins -The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie -I, Tonya
Meryl Streep -The Post
Saoirse Ronan -Lady Bird

Strong contenders
Jessica Chastain -Molly's Game
Kate Winslet -Wonder Wheel
Judi Dench -Victoria & Abdul
Emma Stone -Battle of the Sexes
Annette Bening -Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Long shots
Brooklyn Prince -The Florida Project
Vicky Krieps -Phantom Thread
Carey Mulligan -Mudbound
Lois Smith -Marjorie Prime
Jennifer Lawrence -mother!


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Surest bets
Willem Dafoe -The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Armie Hammer -Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins -The Shape of Water
Michael Stuhlbarg -Call Me By Your Name

Strong contenders
Michael Shannon -The Shape of Water
Ben Mendehlson -Darkest Hour
Woody Harrelson -Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri
Ray Romano -The Big Sick
Jason Mitchell -Mudbound

Long shots
Mark Rylance -Dunkirk
Dustin Hoffman -The Meyerowitz Stories
Bryan Cranston -Last Flag Flying
Idris Elba -Molly's Game
Jacob Tremblay -Wonder


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Surest bets
Alison Janney -I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf -Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer -The Shape of Water
Holly Hunter -The Big Sick
Kristin Scott Thomas -Darkest Hour

Strong contenders
Mary J Blige -Mudbound
Hong Chau -Downsizing
Melissa Leo -Novitiate
Lesley Manville -Phantom Thread
Carrie Coon - The Post

Long shots
Tatiana Maslany -Stronger
Claire Foy -Breathe
Bria Vinaite -The Florida Project
Catherine Keener -Get Out
Michelle Williams -All the Money in the World


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Surest bets
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
The Post
Get Out

Strong contenders
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
The Big Sick
The Meyerowitz Stories

Long shots
Phantom Thread
The Greatest Showman
Downsizing
Coco
Wind River


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Surest bets
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
I, Tonya

Strong contenders
Breathe
Battle of the Sexes
Blade Runner 2049
First They Killed My Father
Wonderstruck

Long shots
All the Money in the World
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Last Flag Flying
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

As with American Sniper and Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood's 15:17 to Paris could be a last minute addition that gets a lot of play (or it could be more like J Edgar, Gran Torino, Jersey Boys, Sully, etc. and get next to nothing). I'm counting it out for now while it's an unknown.



Good post. Can see Call Me By Your Name getting a Best Picture nom while winning Best Foreign Film like Amour did a few years ago. The Post and Darkest Hour both look pretty bad, hope i'm wrong about them. Wonder if DDL wins again.



I don't think CMBYN is eligible for Best Foreign Language Film because while it's a co-production of France, Italy, Brazil, and the US and is set in Italy, it's 95% in English and I believe a movie has to be primarily in another language to compete for that prize.

Haven't seen The Post and heard good things about the script, but Darkest Hour was pretty bad I thought. Blandly respectable Oscar bait of the Iron Lady, Imitation Game variety. Gary Oldman has an excellent shot at winning for it anyway though because he ticks all the boxes AMPAS voters love: physical transformation, playing a famous historical figure, scenes with rousing speeches and private contemplation that make for great Oscar clips, etc. and he's rightfully seen as overdue. I do think his only real competition is DDL who you can never count out and who is at least suggesting will never act again. My money is on Oldman right now but in the event they view it as their last opportunity to award arguably the world's best working actor, he could make history and become the first actor to win it 4 times (he's already the only actor to have won it 3 times and Katherine Hepburn is the only performer with 4 Oscars).



Yeah, BPM, First They Killed My Father, Layla M, Felicite, Loveless, Bingo, and maybe The Square or In The Fade have good shots at that category but it's always one of the hardest to predict because I think the voters have to watch all the eligible films whereas the vast majority of the rest of us will never even have the opportunity to see, for instance, Slovenia's The Miner or Azerbaijan's Pomegranate Orchard so while higher profile usually equals nominated, there's typically some surprises.



Bright light. Bright light. Uh oh.
Haneke's film was submitted, heard bad things about that by fans of Haneke.
It's basically a sequel to Amour - Trintignant and Huppert play the same characters. Sarah saw it at AFI - she was iffy on it but she's not a big Haneke fan (same as her dad).

She thought Loveless was better but was depressed throughout.



This might just do nobody any good.
^
Dying to see it but I’m willing to bet Dunkirk takes it.



Dying to see it but I’m willing to bet Dunkirk takes it.
It's a technical showcase with little-to-no character development or story, It's not going to get a screenplay nomination, didn't have a festival debut, and It's unlikely to get an SAG ensemble nom considering the competition. Those are some heavy stats.

On the other hand, the former has a lot going for it:
1. Had a screening at both Venice and Telluride, and is being released before December.
2. It won the TIFF Audience Award
3. It's a timely film with relevant themes.
4. It seems like the film that'll garner the most 2 and 3 votes.
5. Considering the lineup of the cast--and the praise they've been getting, It seems very likely the film will win the SAG Ensemble.
6. It seems destined to win Original Screenplay. (With either that, or Adapted; is probably the biggest precursor for what'll win Best Picture.)

And If It's not 3BB, It'll be this...




The following article on 'ThePlaylist' perfectly captures my view on this matter...

"Is ‘Three Billboards’ Your Stealth Best Picture Frontrunner?"
https://theplaylist.net/three-billbo...down-20171018/



Also, count on the film not only winning Original Screenplay; but Supporting Actor for Sam Rockwell.



2022 Mofo Fantasy Football Champ
I've seen 2 contenders for the best picture. Can't wait to see Dunkirk and Shape of Water and will certainly try to see The Post.

Is Get Out worth it?



This might just do nobody any good.
Get Out is great. Good fun. Best Picture though? Nah. That academy likes to pander but they don’t roll all the way.



Get Out is great. Good fun. Best Picture though? Nah. That academy likes to pander but they don’t roll all the way.
Not winning. But It has great chances of being nominated.



I've seen 2 contenders for the best picture. Can't wait to see Dunkirk and Shape of Water and will certainly try to see The Post.

Is Get Out worth it?
The "Academy Awards" is completely irrelevant and utter fodder for self-proclaimed "Movie Buffs", and 'Tumblr Stans' on AwardsWatch.

Although I do (from time to time) go on about how "Film X" should've been rewarded (Ala; "THIS SHOULD'VE WON!") To me, It's not about what you think should win; It's about does win, as you predict which film will succeed. That's what makes 'Awards Season' so fun to me.

So, If you're looking to see a film that could end up winning the big one (or you're just looking to "predict"), then I'd suggest to go with either of these 3 for Best Picture:





Trust me.



In a year where the race is wide open don't count out Phantom Thread (Anderson) and 15:17 to Paris(Eastwood) those are the movies that are going to get the last look