Yes, The Director's Guild having already named their winner has taken much of the guesswork out of this one. Since the DGA started handing out this award back in 1949, their winner and the Oscar's Best director have differed only
six times. Six. Though three of those six did come in the last thirteen years: in 1996 when Ron Howard won the DGA for
Apollo 13 and Mel Gibson the Oscar for
Braveheart, in 2001 when Ang Lee got the DGA's nod for
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon then Steven Soderbergh the Oscar for
Traffic, and 2003 when Rob Marhsall got the DGA Award for
Chicago but exiled Roman Polanski was the surprise winner of the Academy's prize for
The Pianist.
So since Kathryn Bigelow has already won the DGA Award, you'd be betting against some very serious historical odds to say anybody but her will get the Oscar. Still, she is only the fourth woman ever to be nominated as Best Director for the Academy Award, joining Lina Wertmüller in 1977 (
Seven Beauties), Jane Campion in 1994 (
The Piano) and Sofia Coppola in 2004 (
Lost in Translation). Will this particular Hollywood glass ceiling be broken this year? The Directors Guild of America seems to think so.
Precious's Lee Daniels is only the second Black man to be nominated as Best Director, the other being John Singleton back in 1992 for
Boyz N the Hood. I wouldn't say he has anything resembling a shot, but considering this is only his second effort as a director and his first was the dreadful
Shadowboxer, it certainly makes him somebody to watch, even at the tender age of fifty (he also produced the indies
Monster's Ball and
The Woodsman).
This is only the third film from Jason Reitman, but already his second nomination as Best Director - he and
Juno having lost to The Coen Brothers and
No Country for Old Men two years ago. No real chance of stealing a win here this year, but obviously he's quickly becoming a force in the industry. His Dad Ivan had some big hits and made a mint as a producer, but Jason looks like he'll be around for quite a while and as far as "prestige" awards and such has already surpassed what his Father has done in the biz. He's only thirty-two.
Quentin Tarantino has been a brand name since the unexpected and in many ways unprecedented success of
Pulp Fiction fourteen years ago. That one netted him his only other Oscar nom as Director, ultimately losing to Robert Zemeckis and
Forrest Gump. I find it hard to believe that the Academy is going to reward such a happily bloody piece of cinematic action fantasy as
Inglourious Basterds with the top prizes they have, but even so it's nice to see Quentin back in play in such an arena.
James Cameron - well Hell, everybody knows him. He's the self-proclaimed king of the world! And now he's king of the off-world, too. With just about all of the major awards so far this year, if Kathryn Bigelow hasn't won for directing it's been ex-husband Jim trotting up to the stage. Well
Titanic was his only other nomination. Yes, OK, it wasn't just a nomination it was part of
Titanic's eleven wins out of fourteen nominations that Oscars as the film made over a billion dollars theatrically worldwide. This time his nod is one of
Avatar's nine Academy noms as it makes yet another billion bucks at the box office.
So as with most years, it all boils down to a two-horse race. Will it be Bigelow or Cameron? Smart money is on Kathryn.
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