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Well, we officially have a front runner.
As Holden Pike mentioned above, since the preferential ballot era of both PGA and The Academy Awards started, the two have matched 8/10 times. Only PGA winners The Big Short and La La Land (and Gravity, the year it tied with 12 Years a Slave) went on to lose Best Picture at the Oscars. So, the only other film I see winning by this point is probably Parasite, since it's been nominated for every guild and has a pretty passionate support base that something like Roma didn't have last year. Depends which film ends up winning director, though. And you can never count out an original screenplay win for either Parasite or Hollywood.
This whole thing really disappoints me, too. I haven't even seen it yet and already the hype is starting to overwhelm me. Like, is it really that good? Better than The Irishman, Parasite, or Tarantino? Are they trying to make some statement on war because the whole kerfuffle with Iran at the moment? Sam Mendes has already won an Oscar and you have Tarantino and Bong Joon-ho right there, two filmmakers who made two of the best films of the year, not even mentioning the fact that Tarantino has never won for director or picture (Joon-ho hasn't even been recognized by The Academy until now).
The only thing hindering its chances by this point is the fact that it's the first film to win the PGA with no SAG nominations, and the first since Slumdog Millionaire to do it without any Oscar noms for acting. Then again, both The Shape of Water and Green Book ended up winning best picture with no ensemble nomination. Who's to say that 1917 can't pull it off without any SAG or Oscar nominations for acting? It got nominated for original screenplay despite consensus that it wouldn't. Not to mention that I think by this point, PGA is probably the better indicator since it's top prize has been more accurate than the SAG ensemble has been this decade. But is an SAG shut-out really that irrelevant? Unless Parasite or Once Upon A Time In Hollywood wins something major like ensemble or DGA, then expect the answer to be "yes", and expect 1917 to be your Best Picture Winner.
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Last edited by Cynema De Bergerac; 01-19-20 at 05:20 AM.