The 2021 Oscar Preview Podcast

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For the tenth (!) consecutive year, I'm joined by @Holden Pike and @mark f for our annual Oscar Preview podcast.

This year, topics include the late Chadwick Boseman's performance, whether Glenn Close will finally take one home, the increased recognition of streaming titles, landmark nominations in Best Director and Best Actor, and lots more.


The best way to listen is to subscribe with iTunes. The next best ways are to just download it with this link (or add the podcast feed into your RSS reader). Or you can just listen right now with this embedded player:




I realized as I was finishing up that it would be a good ending, and then when I slotted it in I realized how well the lyrics of the second verse fit, on multiple levels. It was a really lovely bit of serendipity.



Unrelated but I noticed I left a little orphan fragment in there that didn't fit very well so I'm uploading a very very slightly different version in a moment.



Didn't see this till now. I'll give it a listen soon.



That elusive hide-and-seek cow is at it again
I just saw this from the bump. I would have missed it completely, otherwise. I thought it went up 7 minutes ago, then noticed ALL THE POSTS and wondered how on earth were you people able to see and post and be conversational all within 7 minutes. Even the Shoutbox ain't THAT fast.
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"My Dionne Warwick understanding of your dream indicates that you are ambivalent on how you want life to eventually screw you."
- Joel

"Ever try to forcibly pin down a house cat? It's not easy."
- Captain Steel



Hadn't seen this. Will check it out soon.
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Check out my podcast: Thief's Monthly Movie Loot!



The trick is not minding
Hadn't seen this. Will check it out soon.
Itís fun. We all log on and join the chat and rib on the actors we donít like.

And in one persons case, lust after all of the gorgeous women on it......itís me, Iím the one person.
👀



Bumping in part to say that it looks like I can watch the ceremony online with YouTubeTV, which is expensive except there's a free trial, so maybe this year I can finally avoid having to haul the TV and DVR into the office and run a giant coaxial cable in here and then reconnect everything afterwards again.



If only they would invent a portable computer, the size and weight of which would allow it to rest in ones lap.


__________________
"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra



Unfortunately there's too many moving parts for me to feasibly manage the event from a laptop, particularly if/when something needs to be fixed, which seems to happen about half the time.

This is actually a bit of a thing with IT people sometimes, having trouble working without a "real" keyboard. I know one guy who kind of forced himself to program on a laptop even at home so he'd be able to work as effectively as normal anywhere.



Final Oscar predictions (stats favorite mentioned in brackets, when different from my personal pick):

Best Picture - Nomadland
Best Director - Chloe Zhao (lock)
Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman
Best Actress - Carey Mulligan (stats favorite, in my opinion: Viola Davis)
Best Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluuya (probably a lock)
Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Father (stats favorite: Nomadland)
Best Original Screenplay - Promising Young Woman
Best Film Editing - The Trial of the Chicago 7 (stats favorite, in my opinion: Sound of Metal)
Best Cinematography - Nomadland
Best Production Design - Mank
Best Costume Design - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Sound - Sound of Metal
Best Original Score - Soul
Best Original Song - "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami...
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Visual Effects - Tenet
Best International Feature - Another Round
Best Documentary Feature - My Octopus Teacher
Best Animated Feature - Soul
Best Live Action Short - Feeling Through (or Two Distant Strangers - can't decide between these two, so might as well go with the stats favorite)
Best Documentary Short - Do Not Split (or A Concerto is a Conversation; Do Not Split is the stats favorite)
Best Animated Short - If Anything Happens I Love You (or Burrow)

I also gave my second place in the short categories, because I would be happy just to have narrowed it down to two... I also, after much interior deliberation, decided to go with the stats favorite as my personal prediction in all three of those. I'll probably regret not just going with the pundits consensus instead - I usually do -, but it felt lame to just pick those and there were stats arguments against both (I did pick the Gold Derby favorite in animated short) plus they made sense to me logically, as potential winners, just as much as the others. If they go ultra-political, I'm screwed - I never learn... I'll get at least 2/3 wrong.

People's arguments convinced me Trial was more likely for editing, logically speaking. But it's not the stats favorite.



Very late to everything and probably wont stay up to watch but I hope Sound of Metal takes everything its nominated for, especially sound, best actor and best picture.


And Another Round for foreign picture.



Wait, you mean in a year when studios purposefully held big movies back because they wanted to wait until the pandemic was done and they could put butts in seats again and in a year where the awards ceremony was pushed back two whole months, that resulted in low ratings?

I am shocked. No human being could have predicted this.