Who will take on Obama in 2012?

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will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
If these are all the possibilities, I think it will be a horse race between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Of course at this point in time I never would have predicted Obama would have been a serious candidate. My money is on Romney, but he is going to have to do a much better job of selling himself. He gets that caught in the headlights look when trying to explain his flip flops, but they will not seem as important this time because it is four years later. He shouldn't attack Sarah Palin. The press will do that for him.

http://www.kevinwebb22.com/politics/...sident-in-2012
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If these are all the possibilities, I think it will be a horse race between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Of course at this point in time I never would have predicted Obama would have been a serious candidate. My money is on Romney, but he is going to have to do a much better job of selling himself. He gets that caught in the headlights look when trying to explain his flip flops, but they will not seem as important this time because it is four years later. He shouldn't attack Sarah Palin. The press will do that for him.

http://www.kevinwebb22.com/politics/...sident-in-2012
Palin is the only candidate other than Newt who has name and face recognition and something of a following, but she also has so much baggage that she'll never float as a serious candidate. Besides her political career is governer of probably the most sparsely populated state in the nation so rich in natural resources that instead of being taxed, all citizens get a piece of the oil money pouring into state coffers, hasn't exactly prepared her for the office of president. Plus the curse of the Peter Principle--like Obama and Jimmy Carter she's already risen to her level of incompetence. Newt also has a wagon-load of baggage that is going to drag him down in any race for the nominaton. Plus he's old--one advantage that Palin has over him.

The rest of the "possible" candidates are like the "7 dwarfs" selection the Democrats had some years ago--a bunch of unknowns and poor second-choices fighting it out for nomination on the losing ticket. I don't recognize most of the names on that list and the few I do don't give me the warm fuzzies. Rick Perry? The only Texas governor stiffer and less articulate than George W.? Gimme a break! The office of Texas governor is one of the weakest in the country as a result of the way our constitution was written after reconstruction. And Bush and Perry still couldn't handle the job! Rice? On the strength of having been appointed Sec. of State? Where's her political and administrative experience? Trump???? Tell me you're joking! Can you think of a worse candidate for what is tagged as the "party of big business" than one of the biggest and most laughable businessman of them all? Would you trust a man whose most memorable quote is "You're fired!" to end unemployment and recession in this country?

I don't think there's a decent candidate even for vice president on that list.

Wonder who's the highest ranking person of Hispanic culture in the Republican Party? Maybe they should run him--or her. After all, the Hispanic population is growing faster than the black population. And he might even attract some moderate liberals who've had it with Obama. Besides, think of the natural election slogan--"Our brown guy can whip your black guy."



The crazy thing about the Republican field is that in a relatively normal election cycle everything -- everything -- would point to Mitt Romney. Runner-up last time, strong fundraising advantage and existing organization, and his business acumen and all-around general level of personal competency would dovetail very well with the kinds of themes he'd probably be running against Obama with.

Except, of course, for RomneyCare. And that one thing -- the fact that he instituted a not-too-unlike-ObamaCare-health-plan as Governor of Massachusetts -- could be enough to counteract all the others. He's played this the only way he can, really: by suggesting that it's one thing to implement such a plan for a specific state, and another to impose it on an entire country. And that's true. But it's not enough, and I don't suspect he can make the case that Massachusetts is so fundamentally different from the rest of the nation to make an idea he finds terrible at the federal level hunky-dory at the state level. And even if he could, that's a pretty nuanced counter to a very straightforward charge, and those don't usually work very well.

Palin: I think there's a very good chance she doesn't even run, and if she does I don't think she wins. I like her just where she is: as a party firebrand and general lightning rod. And I think she risks hurting the eventual nominee if she runs and loses. The people who love her really love her, and I can easily see many of them having no second choice if she falls short, and thus sitting things out even though they're apt to align with the eventual nominee fairly well anyway.

I honestly don't know who I'd put money on if I were forced to. Probably Romney, but if not Romney, it'd definitely be Pawlenty. He's relatively inoffensive, which is both his strength and his weakness. At the moment he's not exciting too many people and is ill-defined, but the latter fact also means he could define himself, and having the flexibility to do that (something most of the other serious candidates do not have) could be very valuable. And there is some political theory to suggest that in a wide open race with no clear frontrunner, the blandest candidate tends to emerge (think: Kerry, 2004). That said, I wouldn't bet on this unless I could take "The Field" against any single candidate.

I'm also surprised at how little attention Haley Barbour's getting, though that's probably because of his civil rights gaffe a few months back. Outside of that he's a pretty attractive candidate; he's experienced and he's got a good fiscal track record. It would not shock me in the slightest if he won. Worth tossing Mitch Daniels' name in there. No idea if he's running, though: this seems like it should be the time, but he's made a few moves to the center recently, and that's not the kind of thing you do leading up to a primary. I could get behind him, though, for sure.

Last thought for now: there are lots of exciting candidates who aren't going to run this time around, which means that if Obama does win re-election, the Republicans should have a very, very good crop of candidates in 2016. Chris Christie is the obvious hypothetical frontrunner, and Marco Rubio could be awfully exciting after he's gotten some experience. Paul Ryan lives and breathes budget matters, and those aren't going to stop being relevant any time soon. Plenty of choices next time around...unless, of course, a Republican actually wins next year. And the smart bet is still against that happening.
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Except, of course, for RomneyCare. And that one thing -- the fact that he instituted a not-too-unlike-ObamaCare-health-plan as Governor of Massachusetts
That's why I didn't even mention Romney in my post. You know the major plank in the Republican platform in 2012 will be repeal of ObamaCare, and it wouldn't do to have a Republican candidate who did it first and has since defended it. For all of his other strengths, that disqualifies Romney.

Perhaps the Republicans' best bet is to dig up a new Senator or at least a clean representive, run a thorough security check to make sure he was an Eagle Scout, never hired illegal aliens or uttered racial slurs, and is articulate enough to hold his own in debate, put him on the ticket and carefully handle him so he doesn't say anything not scripted (i.e. stupid) that would make a bad TV bite, and then let Obama beat himself by trying to sell ObamaCare and explaining the much higher cost of gasoline at the pump after having shut down drilling in the Gulf of Mexico for nearly a year.



I don't know as much about the U.S. political landscape than you guys do, but I reckon it'll be Palin. I also have this hunch that Obama is going to win the 2012 election easily. In spite of some calling for him to run, hasn't Chris Christie refused to run in 2012 because he thinks he can't beat Obama? I vaguely remember reading something about that...

Oh, and what about Ginrich? Does he have a chance to secure the nomination?



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
I didn't know anything about Pawlenty. He wasn't described in that link. But after looking him up that is the kind of candidate that often emerges from the pack, a popular Governor. But you never know who will catch on. Most of the rest are members of the House or non politicians and probably at best one or two will have followings like Ron Paul, but won't win any states. Rick Santorum, a defeated ex Senator with an abrasive style, is a real puzzler as a potential candidate.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
I don't know as much about the U.S. political landscape than you guys do, but I reckon it'll be Palin. I also have this hunch that Obama is going to win the 2012 election easily. In spite of some calling for him to run, hasn't Chris Christie refused to run in 2012 because he thinks he can't beat Obama? I vaguely remember reading something about that...

Oh, and what about Ginrich? Does he have a chance to secure the nomination?
Christie has said he would serve a full term as Governor. If his reason to not run was because he thought he couldn't beat Obama the opinion polls could make him change his mind. I assume he won't run, but if he did would be a serious candidate.

I think Gingrich is unlikely to get the nomination, but I wouldn't entirely rule it out depending on the competition. At least he is articulate and has a following, but he has been known to put his foot in his mouth. He has tempered his abrasive style after leaving the House, but he has made a lot of enemies.



Keep on Rockin in the Free World
I'd like to see a Gary Johnson/Ron Paul Ticket, but chances are it will be cannon fodder like jeb bush , Palin or Romney.

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what about Ginrich? Does he have a chance to secure the nomination?
I've got as much of a chance to get the Republican nomination as Gingrich--unless of course the Republicans go completely nuts and throw away the election, which is always possible. The Republicans have to learn to get past "the usual suspects" like Gingrich and find someone who appeals to independents more than to the party's right wing.

I just can't see Gingrich getting it--he has too much baggage from his days as speaker plus the book thing and other questionable actions. the Democrats would just beat him to death with all those old issues.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
I've got as much of a chance to get the Republican nomination as Gingrich--unless of course the Republicans go completely nuts and throw away the election, which is always possible. The Republicans have to learn to get past "the usual suspects" like Gingrich and find someone who appeals to independents more than to the party's right wing.

I just can't see Gingrich getting it--he has too much baggage from his days as speaker plus the book thing and other questionable actions. the Democrats would just beat him to death with all those old issues.
With Tea Party fever still running high, no way will they pick someone who would appeal to independents. Bush Junior the first time was the stealth conservative, the party base embraced and trusted him while his rhetoric appealed to independents. They don't have anyone like that now. I think this could be the election year they go with a right wing flame thrower then when he or she fails, get it out of their system and pick someone mainstream next time.



I'd like to see a Gary Johnson/Ron Paul Ticket, but chances are it will be cannon fodder like jeb bush , Palin or Romney.

Gary supports Marijuana and is pro choice, that won't fly with Hannity/Beck/Limbaugh and their following.

I would love that ticket though, dex.
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With Tea Party fever still running high, no way will they pick someone who would appeal to independents. Bush Junior the first time was the stealth conservative, the party base embraced and trusted him while his rhetoric appealed to independents. They don't have anyone like that now. I think this could be the election year they go with a right wing flame thrower then when he or she fails, get it out of their system and pick someone mainstream next time.
The way I see it, this election is for the Republicans to lose. Everyone is so pissed about Obamacare and other fool moves by this administration that if the Republican would come up with a candidate for whom the majority of voters could hold their nose and pull the lever, they would have it in the bag. But I don't see anyone in the party with even that much appeal.

Obama is the most political president ever and he's been running for reelection ever since he got in office. But he's so arrogant and so out of his depth that he could sink himself with some fool move by 2012. I'm betting energy prices will do it, especially if we're still banging around in Libya by then. But I also never sell short the Republican's ability to shoot themselves in the ass and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Maybe they can get a majority in both houses of Congress, with some of the Democratic senators seeking reelection ending up in such tough fights that they have to move more to the center and start voting with Republicans on key issues.

Obamacare and high oil prices with the feds still sitting on Gulf of Mexico leases are gonna be bread-and-butter issues next year, so the Republicans need someone to talk reasonably on those points while remaining below the radar on anything else and not endorse some of the far right issues.



Keep on Rockin in the Free World
That sounds an awful lot like 2004.

substitute obama for bush and obamacare for iraq war.

it does not matter who the republicans put forth, short of ressurecting Ronnie Reagan.

Obama will win.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
Upon reflection I don't think Romney will be a serious contender. He seemed like the perfect candidate last year on paper, but his incredibly cynical decision to re-make himself overnight from moderate to staunch conservative didn't endear him to Republican voters. You can fudge a little like McCain did (and most Presidential candidates do), but you can't do it on every issue. I didn't think Palin was going to run for the Presidency when she resigned as Governor, but now I do. I think someone from the pack will emerge, probably a Governor, and it will be him and Palin, with Palin doing well early in Iowa, maybe New Hampshire. I really am thinking she could get the nomination, but it will be fierce contest and if she's the nominee unless there is a scandal Obama wins. She is a terrible debater.

If the Supreme Court rules nationalized medicine is unconstitutional, it will help Obama and possibly Romney.



I don't know as much about the U.S. political landscape than you guys do, but I reckon it'll be Palin. I also have this hunch that Obama is going to win the 2012 election easily. In spite of some calling for him to run, hasn't Chris Christie refused to run in 2012 because he thinks he can't beat Obama? I vaguely remember reading something about that...
It was the exact opposite: he said he wasn't running but thinks he could beat him. And I'd agree, ssuming he meant could and not definitely would.

Oh, and what about Ginrich? Does he have a chance to secure the nomination?
As ruf says, he has lots of baggage. But I think that sort of thing is terribly overestimated. Guiliani has some personal scandal in his past and that never even came up during the primary. Fred Thompson's got himself a trophy wife. John McCain is divorced, though his ex-wife has nice things to say about him to this day (even though some rumors don't). Hell, Joe Biden's own Presidential ambitions were derailed once upon a time before because he was caught plagiarizing a British politician and because he actually said to someone who questioned him "I'll bet I have a higher IQ than you." Political gaffes and personal indiscretions of a statute of limitations on them. Hang around long enough and they lose a lot of their power. What are reporters going to do, report it like breaking news?

All that said, Newt's personal life is worse than most, so he might be the exception. But I don't totally agree with anyone who would write him off on this alone. What he has going in his favor is that he's very, very sharp. Right now -- fairly or not -- the Republican party has to contend with the idea that it's willing to nominate folksy, down-to-earth types even at the expense of competency if it's forced to choose between the two. Nobody can make the case, with a straight face, that Gingrich is not very smart and very in command of the issues. In a nutshell: he can beat Obama in a debate.

I don't think he'll be the nominee, and I think he might not even run to begin with, but I think it's very hard to overestimate a candidate who can command a stage or a debate with their grasp of the issues and their complexities. A lot of the political dossier's list of weaknesses start to look irrelevant when the candidate actually gets there on stage, or in front of the camera.



That sounds an awful lot like 2004.

substitute obama for bush and obamacare for iraq war.

it does not matter who the republicans put forth, short of ressurecting Ronnie Reagan.

Obama will win.
I think he'll win, but I think it's an awfully long way from a sure thing. The parallels with 2004 are very superficial. Bush still had very strong support among conservatives and decent numbers with independents in '04; Obama, on the other hand, has a lot of disillusioned Democrats on his hands (for good reason; he's done lots of things he railed against during the campaign), and his support among independents has absolutely plummeted since taking office. We all saw what happened in November.

Historically, Obama's approval rating is just a little above where it needs to be to make him a favorite for re-election, I believe. But other indicators, like the economy and unemployment, would normally bode very, very badly for the incumbent.

If the Republicans had a four-years-from-now Chris Christie running fresh on the heels of fixing New Jersey's budget problems, I'd make them a moderate favorite. But for now, with no such dark horse ridden by a white knight (at least, none that we can see yet), I'd give the Republicans 2-1 odds.



Sorry, posting separate to keep separate thoughts separate.

Upon reflection I don't think Romney will be a serious contender. He seemed like the perfect candidate last year on paper, but his incredibly cynical decision to re-make himself overnight from moderate to staunch conservative didn't endear him to Republican voters. You can fudge a little like McCain did (and most Presidential candidates do), but you can't do it on every issue. I didn't think Palin was going to run for the Presidency when she resigned as Governor, but now I do. I think someone from the pack will emerge, probably a Governor, and it will be him and Palin, with Palin doing well early in Iowa, maybe New Hampshire. I really am thinking she could get the nomination, but it will be fierce contest and if she's the nominee unless there is a scandal Obama wins. She is a terrible debater.

If the Supreme Court rules nationalized medicine is unconstitutional, it will help Obama and possibly Romney.
We don't actually have a good test of Romney's appeal to most conservatives because many were even less enamored with McCain's credentials, so he was actually the further-right choice once the less viable candidates had bowed out.

The thing is, though Romney has definitely remade himself...he's been doing it for awhile. And I think most voters are shrewd enough to realize that it's really just about what each person is going to do. Am I sure Romney is a genuine conservative deep down in his soul now? No. Do I think he'll behave like one anyway, since he's been saying he will for years now? Yeah, I think maybe he would. Heck, I'm sure some politicians really do change their minds on some of this stuff, though since most of them have a vested interest in saying so we'd never believe them either way (and we'd be right not to most of the time). But he's been walking the walk for awhile now, so who knows.

I don't think the general movement towards more conservative positions over the years is the problem for Romney; the guy almost got the nomination anyway. It's all RomneyCare. Without that, he cruises. With it, he's going to spend the entire primary dissembling.

Re: Palin. I'm amazed at how many people think she'll definitely run and definitely be the frontrunner. I'll be a little surprised if she runs, but I'll be stunned if she wins the nomination.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
I don't think Gingrich's personal life will be an issue. It is old stuff. If he was a newcomer and these revelations were just coming out it would be different. Gingrich's problem is he is a polarizing presence, definitely not a uniter. I think he wants to run. His interest at the eleventh hour in '08 was fueled by his realization he was better than the guys that were running, but it was too late at that point to enter the race.



will.15's Avatar
Semper Fooey
"I don't think the general movement towards more conservative positions over the years is the problem for Romney; the guy almost got the nomination anyway. It's all RomneyCare. Without that, he cruises. With it, he's going to spend the entire primary dissembling."



I dont think he almost got the nomination. He did terrible considering how much money he spent and all his advantages. If Republican voters trusted him, he was with them on all the issues, he should have put away John McCain. I am still amazed McCain won. He really was the comeback kid.



planet news's Avatar
Registered User
Yeah, McCain was totally oldmanoutoff*ckingnowhere.jpg last time. I suppose I have my fingers crossed for Palin even though she's unlikely because I want that kind of endless entertainment in my life.

You guys are surprising me though with all this fo-sho, 2-1 certainty talk. I easily get the feeling from even the liberal media that he is constantly walking on thin ice around just about everyone.
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