MoFo Fantasy Football 2008

Well, a lot of the sleepers are awake and the shine is off some of the guys we thought were sure things. Thought I'd update this thread with some interesting facts through four games, given that it's almost a third of our regular season. Here we go:

• Even though Piledriver (BeanTown Champs) took a huge hit by losing Brady in week 1, he also snagged Jay Cutler in the 10th round, who leads all players through week 4 with 105.8 points. Fancy that: he lost Brady, but still has the top fantasy quarterback.

• Sedai (The Replicants) lost a squeaker to PW (PW's Odd Squad) in a battle of the league's only 3-0 teams, but still has the overall point lead thanks to his 171.24 point outburst last week.

• Sedai's success has been fueled largely by his RBs, ironically named Bush and Gore. And did I mention he claimed someone named McClain off waivers this week?
  
  Bush and Gore are -- get this -- #1 and #2 in total points at their position. Bush has the edge with 81 points, making him the highest scoring non-quarterback thus far.

• Draft positions of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks:
  
  1. Jay Culter (10th round)
  2. Brett Favre (7th round)
  3. Phillip Rivers (5th round)
  4. Drew Brees (2nd round)
  5. Tony Romo (1st round)
  6. Aaron Rodgers (11th round)
  7. Kurt Warner (UNDRAFTED)
  8. Donovan McNabb (6th round)
  9. Jason Campbell (13th round)
  10. J.T. O'Sullivan (UNDRAFTED)
  
  Yep, that's right: Romo and Brees are the only quarterbacks in the top ten drafted earlier than the 5th round.

• The #1 defense (Tennessee) was the the 12th defense taken. Sedai snagged them in the 13th round; a truly superb choice.
  
  The #2 and #3 defenses (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) didn't go until the 15th round.

• None of the first round picks have the most points at their respective positions. Gore (2nd among RBs) and M. Barber (3rd among RBs) are the closest. None of the other 10 even finish in the top 4 for their respective positions.

Crazy year so far, eh?

I predict (write this down...) that after Barber scores 3 TD's for me against the lowly Bengal's this week that he will number 1 with a bullet baby! Yeah!

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We are both the source of the problem and the solution, yet we do not see ourselves in this light...

His short-term upside is definitely good, but, prepare for him to go down at some point during the season. He is the most physical RB I have seen in years.

Gore has a few tough weeks coming up, so I could have some trouble ahead.

I got to watch a couple of TEN games last year, end of season, and their defense was ridiculous. I planned on taking them, and was able to lock them down in the 13th. They were down on my cheat sheet as the number 1 defense, followed by the Vikings, and then the Ravens. I was 2/3 correct, anyway...

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I'm not playing with the bunch of you fools, but in case you're wondering, my fantasy team is responsible for some of the piss in my attitude.

ARG!

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The only reason I'm in third place with a 5-1 record right now is because every team I've played so far has had a bad week. I'll still take my five wins, but if we were just going on fantasy points right now, I'd be in sixth place. It doesn't really matter, though, since I get the feeling we'll all be chasing PW and especially Sedai for the rest of the year, anyway.

The one thing that's getting to me pretty bad is the fact that I have the top two fantasy quarterbacks (Brees and Aaron Rodgers) in the world and I can only play one at a time. If I were able to play both of them in the same week, I'd be unbeatable. As it is now, though, I am very beatable.

Well, PW handed me my ass when we played, even though both our teams underperformed that week. Any Given Sunday, folks... Getting these bye week wins is a big part of having a good season. I still have the worst of that to go through...

Yeah, the bye weeks are huge. Case in point: When I play Sedai in week 9, he won't have Frank Gore or Reggie Bush. So I'm preparing you right now for another week of ass handing humiliation, Sed-Man.

Yeah, that's a big one. I totally lucked out this week, with the Steelers on a bye, by escaping with a pathetic 75 point victory. Yikes.

Re: Rodgers and Brees. Surely you can trade one of them? Even for 60 cents on the dollar, it could be a boon.

Yup. While drafting I thought about Bush's sharing a bye week with my #1 pick, but the PPR potential was too high for me to pass on the dude in the fourth. I already have a different tactic set up for that week set to abuse PPR with high target wideouts, MAtt Forte in my RB1 slot, and a sub in the RB2 slot...

I doubt it will get me a win that week, but, hopefully I won't come in under 50 points or something

The best possible scenario for Forte is to play Detroit that week, which is exactly who he is playing, so I have a chance of him going off for a big fantasy day, I hope...

Forte is on borrowed time, though. He is used far too much to stay potent all season, so at some point he will fall off a bit, due to injury or a shift in the Chicago offensive paradigm designed to preserve the stalwart rookie.

I was looking to trade Brees, but I do kind of like the idea of having such a sweet backup QB. And I don't really need a big upgrade at any particular position.

At least you're in the clear now that the Steelers have gotten past their bye. You've got a good team, Yoda. If you had gotten even a slightly better performance so far from either Grant or Addai, you might be sitting a bit higher than 4-2.

Regardless of Rodgers slightly higher point advantage in our league, Brees is the best fantasy QB, hands down. Actually, he is the best QB in football, as well. That much is clear. He has almost 500 yards more passing than Rodgers, and one more passing TD. Rodgers eeks out the lead with three rushing TDs (poor Grant), but I would go with Brees as the starter, for sure. He's just better. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone that would disagree.

I certainly wouldn't trade him, except maybe for a top 5 RB.

Still, you have the best QBs right now, both of them, so you have some bargaining power...

I am, of course, ready to put my money where my mouth is, and ship my starting QB for your backup...

Well, if you decide you're tired of having Rodgers on the bench and want to deal Brees, I might be interested. I love Ben, but I could use an upgrade there, and I have an absolute glut at WR right now: Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Colston coming back this week, and Hines Ward. I need to deal at LEAST one of these guys.

So, if anyone's looking for a receiver...yeah...I'm your guy. Ideally I'd like to package one of them with one of my RBs for an upgrade there, but I'm open-minded.

Thanks. Yeah, I was pretty thrilled with my draft (the first half, at least...was totally unprepared for the second), but Addai has been kinda mediocre and Grant has been a disaster. Funny thing is, I felt all wrong taking him, too. I was stuck in-between tiers and felt I just had to take a stab in the dark. Out of guys like Grant and Lynch and all that, I feel like it's kind of a crapshoot as to which ones will pan out in a given year and which won't. So it goes.

Anyway, I'm playing one of the winless teams this week so I should be in or around the playoff hunt, so long as Addai isn't too hurt.

The more I look at my WR situation, the more I realize how tricky this is going to be. Assuming I can't deal a receiver, that is.

On one hand, I'm pretty confident that Colston will more or less return to his old form, and that Saints offense is ridiculous. Assuming Colston produces, and along with Fitzgerald (bye this week), and I've got my two starters, neither of which can conceivably sit even in bad matchups.

So, I've got Calvin Johnson and Hines Ward backing them up. Now that Roy Williams has been traded to Dallas, Calvin's the guy in Detroit, bar none. Good in terms of looks, but he'll probably be double-covered a bit more.

Ward is still Ben's go-to guy, but the offensive line is porous, and you never know when poor blocking will completely stall their offense, as it did against Philadelphia.

So, one of these guys is getting benched no matter what. I might be able to play the other, however, if I decide Slaton's got a bad matchup on a given week. OR, I could give up on Ryan Grant, sit him, start Slaton my RB2, and then play Johnson or Ward in the W/R slot. Tough call.

Luckily we play in a PPR league, so running a WR in the swing is always an option, and in actuality, depending on your RB talent, the better play most of the time. If you don't have a third back that catches passes, like a Westbrook or a Bush, the WR is almost always the guy you want to go with, as the PPR numbers will usually put them over the top.

If the third back was someone like Edge or Jamal Lewis, the wideout (Especially a guy like Ward, with huge red zone upside) would be the clear favorite for the swing slot. Even high target, between the 20s WRs like Derrick Mason would probably net more fantasy points per week with 10-12 targets each week than a pile pusher like Lewis. As usual, TDs are the key in these discussions, and predicting TDs with some players is difficult.

Another thing leaning in the wideout's favor is the rising popularity of 3rd down scatbacks (Faulk) and to some extent fullbacks (Hightower) that are used in short/goal situations. These cats tend to snipe RB scores, something the WR doesn't have to worry about. Scats also get catches, and they sometimes score on them, but, they tend to play on only one down, so they don;t et enough work to run them, and they pilfer game time from our valuable RBs.

Alas, as in my other league in which LT has been a bust for me, you need RB help and fast. Grant is a thorn in your side, and it's time to make a move to get him out of the equation. Slaton is gold, and will [with PPR factored in] be a solid player for you if he stays healthy. Addai going out and Grant falling off the fantasy radar are tough to deal with, but you really just need to secure another great back. I think packaging Grant with a great wideout would easily get you a top 10 back from a guy (or gal!) hurting for wides.

Just wait for the right sell high/buy low moment to emerge, meanwhile trying out a wideout in your swing this week if your week seems more on the easy side as you mentioned.

Great advice; I might not have to play a WR in my swing slot yet, with Fitzgerald on a Bye, but after that I'll have to take a good long look at the possibility.

Anyway, you read my mind in packaging Grant with a receiver to upgrade at RB; I made such an offer to someone else already, actually, but I think the 3-day period expired before I got a response, so I'll probably go offer it again just in case. Looking at the rosters, though, I only see a couple of teams that are a good fit for such a trade, so we shall see.

I'm old school NFL... I'm not trading anybody. Not that anyone needed to know that. I'm just sayin'.

If someone were to say... give me an elite QB though I would appreciate it. Although I think I could do worse with Jakey boy. O'Sullivan was fine for a week or two but he keeps turning the damn ball over so he's gonna have to ride the bench for a week or two.

Yoda why did you drop Schaub? I nabbed him cause Pennington and Orton have stiffer competition. Orton/Bears plays against Minnesota, and Pennington/Miami plays against Baltimore. Schaub/Houston goes against Detroit. Seems like a sure thing. Ill give him back if you want.

As I mentioned in the Week 6 thread, I wrestled all week with going with Schaub or Cassel, and went with the latter. It was a dumb move not only for that week, but in general, and I was a little hazy about certain elements of the waiver system, but it's my own mistake and I'll live with it.

Romo is practicing and might actually play, after Favre called him up and called him a wuss. No, seriously. Favre has played through a few busted finger injuries over the years, which is part of why he has this crazy streak going. So now Romo will try to play Sunday if possible, after getting called out by the all time great. Still very questionable, though.

I think that's the right choice Tongo, although Minny isn't as good against air attacks as they are vs RBs. Still, I would choose Schaub over those other two, regardless of match-up...

Aye, Schaub should do well. The funny thing is, this might be the one non-Bye week I'd consider playing Schaub over Ben, if I still had him. D'oh!