International Political Issues

Today I thought about international politics and what's happening in the world. I came up with the following 3 issues and my positions on them in order of relevance:

1. Most important thing that is happening in the world right now is French elections. After extended inner deliberations my position is as follows: even though I like Marie Le Pen and have some overlapping views with her, I have firmly decided that her victory in French presidential race would spell disaster of unintended exponential magnitude, since it would be the beginning of the end of European Union and return to nationalist strife in European continent. Everything that was established after second World War, including peace most of all, would not only be threatened, but actively demolished.

2. Second most important development is UK exit out of EU. Most of you might be surprised, but I support it. I think UK is unique enough and strong enough to stand on it's own on international arena. Within EU England is prime destination for most migrant workers, because of it's strong economy and international English language. Whether one is pro or anti immigration, that fact can not be denied. With UK in the EU it would see never ending influx of immigrants and not necessarily diminishing one. On the bright side, since English is international language, London would not lose it's status as financial center of the world. Granted, it might lose some business intrinsically relating to EU, but it could also gain business relating to the rest of the world. Worst case scenario,- decade later we see UK begging to be allowed back in.

3. Instability in Ukraine. Solution- any sort of stability. That involves acknowledgement of Crimea as part of Russia. The rest is up in the air. As far as I'm concerned Ukraine might as well be re-incorporated into Russia with perhaps Lwow going to Poland, Carpathian Rusyns going to Slovakia and some Hungarian villages going to Hungary. In that case Moldavia could become part of Romania with Transnistria going to Russia and Belarus could also become part of Russia.

that's a pretty eurocentric worldview , even after admitting that europe deserves a high position in any such discussion on strength of it's achievements .

Admittedly I know what is happening outside of Europe much less than what is happening in Europe. I'm interested to hear opinions on other issues as well as opinions on the issues I've mentioned.

Either UK prospers outside EU or it incurs big loses and rejoins EU years later. Scotland is the key. If Scotland gains independence and joins EU, it means UK failed. If Scotland remains in UK, it has a chance to prosper even more.

On the flip side, the biggest threat to EU itself is Marie Le Pen victory in France. Then, all bets are off.

Regarding Ukraine, it will either stabilize and join EU many years later or more likely it will continue disintegrate from within, which means there is no way of telling what comes out of it. Further Russian territorial gains in Ukraine are likely, because of popular unrest.

Hard border will be raised between Gibraltar and Spain.

Hard border will be raised between Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Dublin will be main beneficiary from EU related financial services sector transfer from the City of London. Brussels will be secondary beneficiary of the same.

Republic of Ireland will suffer for increased difficulties with UK business, but benefit for being sole English speaking country within EU.

It's not the most important thing in the world right now (as the threat of her becoming president is not that big), but I agree with your views on it. Continental Europe needs to stand together on many important issues. The bureaucracy has definitely gone too far and the style of leadership needs to be reinvented, but there are many issues where it's important that we act as one firm block. I'm thinking about immigration, military and trade, for instance. There's a lot of stuff that could/should be decentralized again, though. Economically, I think decentralization should be the new trend, for instance.

I agree and Scotland should stand together with the rest of the UK in order to not make things harder than they already are. As Prime Minister, I would not allow a new Scottish referendum.

I disagree. The solution is not to reward Russia for its behavior. The solution is to keep the pressure high on Russia. It' an economically weak country that can easily be intimidated with sanctions. Never overestimate Russia's economic flexibility.

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Cobpyth's Movie Log ~ 2019

Me neither.
I don't see Russia having done anything wrong. Crimea is Russian. Roughly 50% of Ukraine population is Russian speaking and large percentage is pro Russian. Events in Ukraine will be dictated by popular unrest. Territories will ask to be incorporated to Russia as political and economic situation in Ukraine continues to destabilize.
I disagree. Economic sanctions on Russia only make Russia stronger.

Russia literally invaded a neighbor country. How is that not "having done anything wrong"? Crimea was an official part of Ukraine, by the way, so by definition it wasn't Russian.

Europe should not have seduced Ukraine to become part of the EU. I will acknowledge that. That doesn't mean Russia wasn't in the wrong when it started invading largely pro-Russian parts of Ukraine for feeling threatened. Thousands of people have died already as a result of this. Diplomacy would have been the solution.

You'll have to explain that one to me.

Ethnically Crimea is over 90% Russian and it voted and signed itself to become part of Russia. Donetsk is also pro Russian. The only reason Russia doesn't incorporate it is because it knows that by incorporating Donetsk into Russia it would de facto end Ukraine conflict and it would lose future territorial gains by various means. The on going conflict is slow self destruction of Ukraine and Russia knows that. It will end up with large portions of Ukraine or entire Ukraine reincorporated into Russian Federation.
It would go against European Union ideology to refuse Ukraine membership if it met all EU standards.
Neither Russia, nor Ukraine, nor West are interested in diplomatic solution behind the scenes.
It makes Russia more self sufficient and it's people more robust and supportive of their state.

Better not to under estimate Russian military either.

I agree that these areas are all pro-Russian, but that doesn't mean Russia has/had the right to invade them. There are many parts of countries that would rather be part of another country based on ethnicity or language but that doesn't give that other country the right to invade those countries. This needs to be done through diplomacy.

I severely disagree with that ideology, though, so therefore, as a European, I have the right to call it a bad move.

Of course they are. Both just think their goals aren't achievable through diplomacy right now and are therefore turning to war (especially Russia). Both leaderships are not willing to make the necessary compromises. This needs to change.

In the short term this may be true, but in the long term this becomes economically insufferable and people will start blaming the leadership for their problems in larger and larger numbers. Only a repressive dictatorship can hold power in that situation. The future will show how powerful Putin's party truly is in the long run and if Russia will ever truly know democracy.

Correct, but I don't think it's in Russia's interest to provoke much more direct confrontations.

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Where do you come from, by the way, Tugg? I'm from Belgium myself.

One side says it's invasion,- other side says the people have spoken. You choose what to believe.
You do.
Do you see it changing? The only change I see is West finally coming to compromise with Russia. Trump could do it. UK could potentially do it. EU would only do it when it's all over, because it goes against it's ideology to see Ukraine gone.
Russians can take it and they love their leadership. I don't see that changing in the future.
If considering engagement of military force,- Russia is in the best position to use it now. Trump is neutral towards Russia, Americans are divided over his presidency, EU has UK negotiations and French elections to deal with, China wouldn't bother. Everybody are mired in their own internal problems. Response from West would be highly unlikely. This window may close in 4 years.
I'm Lithuanian.

It's clearly an invasion from every way you look at it. Russia has a military presence in what is officially Ukrainian territory. You can think it is a moral invasion, though. I have no problem with that opinion.

I don't see it changing either way in the near future. The language from all parties involved is pretty much still the same as three years ago. The unwillingness to compromise is still there.

Every regime has its breakpoint. We'll see.

Undoubtedly, these are interesting times for Putin. You're right about that. Tillerson, in his most recent remarks, seems to be retaining the hard line against Russia so far, though, so we'll see if Putin will truly be able to profit from the whole situation.

Interesting. What does the overall opinion in your country look like about these matters?

Question:- would NATO go to war for Ukraine? I don't think so at all. NATO would support Ukraine fighters with military equipment if Russia is unable to swiftly occupy the whole territory of Ukraine, though. Nothing more.
Scaremongering towards Russia.

The only way Russia would attack Lithuania is if European Union was no more and NATO was no more, I says. Russia is neither evil nor stupid.

With UK gone, United States of Europe may emerge. Franco- German integration is crucial regardless.

Brexit should be prevented for the sake of humanity, not British people. Brits will sacrifice either way.

Well Ash, what a surprise for Dani8 to be agreeing with you on a potentially controversial thread for the first time in the history of mofo, but I agree.

good idea for a thread though, Tugg. I just received sht news so I could do with this distraction.

Damn you. I thought this is a brand new topic. You got me!

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Look, I'm not judging you - after all, I'm posting here myself, but maybe, just maybe, if you spent less time here and more time watching films, maybe, and I stress, maybe your taste would be of some value. Just a thought, ya know.