2018 Thus Far (from a Box-Office Perspective)

Another year is upon us, and although 2017 wasn't the best year at the box-office (in-fact, it paced considerable behind 2016 until Star Wars: The Last Jedi worked to close the gap to only a few percentages), it brought us intriguing turn-outs. The horror film "IT" was able to break-out and actually made 700 million worldwide, a feat that had never been done before by a horror film (although, the film isn't the biggest horror when adjusted for inflation by a considerable margin) and the Marvel Cinematic Universe continued its dominance, whereas the DC Extended Universe won-big and lost-big (Wonder Woman did great, Justice League did not). I wasn't sure if I wanted to do this again this year and I don't know if I'll be able to update it every week like I had been, but I want to go ahead and give it a shot! Rabies and germs, this is 2017 Thus Far (from a Box-Office Perspective).

Insidious: The Last Key
Result: Big Success
Box-Office: 165.9 million
Budget: 10 million

Thoughts: I don't know about all of you, but I've kept up with the Insidious franchise and I have a mixed-bag of emotions. I watched the second Insidious film in theaters, and it did nothing for me, and I would go as far as saying it was an Annabelle-caliber level of badness. However, when I watched Insidious, I enjoyed it a fair bit, and although Insidious: Chapter Three didn't match that, I definitely thought the boat had been righted. Of course, horror series' tend to beat the horse for all its worth, and even though we likely didn't need one, Insidious: The Last Key has arrived. The film has received negative reviews and all indications suggested it'd be the weakest (although, still successful) installment in the Insidious series, Insidious: The Last Key has over-performed. Released in January, which is oftentimes labeled where studios dump their "lesser" offerings, Insidious: The Last Key is on-pace to make more than Insidious 1 and 3, and although it won't match Insidious: Chapter 2's totals, the film has guaranteed a fifth installment. I like horror films and I like when they succeed as a fan of the genre, but I can't say I am excited by the idea of one more Insidious, since these series' tend to rehash more than innovate.

Update: - Insidious 4 has now eclipsed Insidious: Chapter 2's total, exceeding all expectations and beating Insidious: Chapter 2's total in the process. Wow.


The Commuter
Result: Modest Success
Box-Office: 105.5 million
Budget: 30 million

Thoughts: I'll have to wait until I have more information about this film before I say what I predict the result was. The film is directed by the same director Liam Neeson did the film Non Stop with and, in-comparison to that, The Commuter opened to about half of what Non-Stop made in the United States. On the bright-side though, The Commuter cost about 20 million less than what Non Stop did. The reviews aren't glowing about this film, but they aren't scathing about it either. The reason I can't really say the result is because it hasn't made enough of a footprint in the overseas market. Non Stop was able to cross 200 million worldwide, however, and while The Commuter won't come anywhere close to that, if it's able to create some traction and make half of that worldwide, the film will be a modest success.

Update - I went ahead and marked The Commuter as a modest success, as the film has officially doubled its production budget and will likely be able to break-even sometime in its home-market release.


Mary and the Witch's Flower
Result: Success
Box-Office: 31.1 million
Budget: ?

Thoughts: I oftentimes ignored certain foreign films last year when I reported box office information, and I don't know that I will fix that, but I will try and make more of an effort to recognize them. This film is directed by the same gentleman who directed When Marnie Was There, and this film has actually out-grossed that film. Although I can't find the budget for this film, the budget for that animation was just over 10 million, and so, it can be assumed this film has already been a success for those involved. And, while the film had a release in the United States, it's oftentimes on the home video market that Japanese animation has a second-life in the States. In other-words, Mary and the Witch's Flower was a modest success at the box-office and will likely have a fruitful time at the home market in the States and in Japan, respectively.


Proud Mary
Result: Disappointment
Box-Office: 21.6 million
Budget: 14-30 million

Thoughts: Proud Mary finished last among the new releases for its opening weekend, pocketing about 10 million. The film, which is directed by the gentleman who directed the successful London has Fallen film, has received negative reviews from critics and hasn't had an enthused response at the box-office. Still, it's worth noting that London has Fallen's biggest returns came from overseas markets and it looks as though the film still has a shot at 25 million in the United States. The 14-30 million dollar budget discrepancy is a large one, as well. I would say that the film hasn't done very well at the domestic market, but the jury is still out on its foreign turnout.


The Post
Result: Unclear
Box-Office: 123 million (1.9 million from 2017)
Budget: 50 million

Thoughts: Although, I didn't initially intend to talk about The Post in this thread on-account of how it technically released in 2017, I decided that since the film was only released in 9 theaters, I would go ahead and allow it. I don't know much about this film, but I know enough about it to realize it as a potential hit. Directed by Spielberg, starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, this film is aimed at winning Oscars, and bolstered by its positive acclaim, there's a distinct chance that it will. Right now, The Post hasn't left much of a mark at the box-office, but it could have large growth as the Award Season heats up.


Paddington 2
Result: Success
Box-Office: 204 million
Budget: 50 million

Thoughts: It's worth noting, of course, that most of Paddington 2's box office came from 2017 and, really, only the domestic totals are from 2018. The film is the highest reviewed film ever on Rotten Tomatoes, but hasn't really set the world on fire in the United States. Of course, there's a chance it will have significant holds, but that doesn't look like what will happen. It opened behind the first film, which was only able to make 70 or so million in domestic total, and so, this film could end up with about 50 million. It's not a fatal turn-out, however, because the film's real prospects are seen in the overseas markets, particularly, the United Kingdom. Long story short, it looks like the film will be a modest success, but hopefully it's strong reception will be able to make it more than that.


Phantom Thread
Result: Unclear
Box-Office: 10 million
Budget: 35 million

Thoughts: Phantom Thread is being called the final role for actor Daniel Day-Lewis, and received two nominations at the Golden Globes. The film premiered late last-year, but it's in January that Phantom Thread arrives in wide release. Unfortunately, although, the film has received a strong reception, it did not light the box-office on fire like one might have hoped. Of course, this film is one for the awards, so to speak, and if it is able to stir up some buzz at the Oscars, then, it will take a second-life. However, if that does not happen, one can expect a short shelf-life in theaters.


12 Strong
Result: Disappointment
Box-Office: 35 million
Budget: 58.5 million

Thoughts: 12 Strong has received a mixed-reaction from critics, with the going reception being that it is a well-intention'ed, if, a little by the numbers, film. Boasted by its star-power and the patriotic message, 12 Strong managed to surpass expectations with its box-office total. Although, the film didn't do great, it did commendably well and, once more, exceeded expectations, and while it likely won't have a great life overseas, it should still be able to recoup its budget.

Update: - Although the film started with a lot of promise, it has since went out with more of a whimper than a bang. The budget, in-general, was a little too ambitious from the get-go, and from the looks of it, it will not be able to fully cover its marketing and production budget.


Den of Thieves
Result: Modest Success
Box-Office: 72.5 million
Budget: 30 million

Thoughts: This is a solid film for STX Entertainment, which is still trying to find some solid footing for itself in the industry. Although, the film opened a smidgen behind of 12 Strong, it has a smaller production budget and likely had a more conservative marketing budget as well, notably opening in much less theaters. I'll keep up with it though, as it's still unclear where it will land when the dust has settled. Call it cautious optimism.

Update: - Although it might not look that different, Den of Thieves played a lot better than 12 Strong, considering the 5 million lighter production budget, and a smaller marketing campaign altogether. This film isn't a hit, but it looks like it might be able to break-even on the home-market.


Forever My Girl
Result: Modest Success
Box-Office: 16.2 million
Budget: 4.7 million

Thoughts: Forever My Girl has received negative reviews from critics. This should be a surprise to no one that has seen trailers for this film. This was never a film that was expected to win over the critics, it was targeting a different crowd. Although, the film didn't open to groundbreaking results, but the production budget is small enough that it will be able to recoup it from its theatrical profits. It's now a matter of whether or not it will have enough juice to cover its marketing budget, or if it will have to depend on its home video sales to do so.

Update - This film actually dropped a very light 12.7% in its second weekend, which is very impressive given the reception the film received. Forever My Girl has already almost doubled its production, and if it's able to keep some momentum, it should get close to covering its marketing budget before its home video sales do it.


Maze Runner: The Death Cure
Result: Success
Box-Office: 283.5 million
Budget: 62 million

Thoughts: Once upon a time, I watched The Maze Runner and thought it was actually an enjoyable film. The concept was unique and I didn't mind the characters, and yeah, a fun flick. The Scorch Trials went ahead and ruined all that goodwill for me though, providing a very dull film altogether. I am not saying that Maze Runner 2 affected the results for this film, but I definitely don't think it helped build much momentum. The mixed-to-negative reviews and the fact this film came out a year later than what it was intended (due to an injury with the main-actor), likely didn't help things at all. Still, even though Maze Runner 3 opened with considerably less flare than its predecessors and even though the film cost more than both of those films, it looks like it will still be a success for those involved. I think the film has a pretty fair chance at 200-225 million and it only needs about 150 million to break-even. Add in the synergy it will perhaps have on the earlier Maze Runner films, and it looks like this trilogy will wrap up in satisfying fashion from a box-office perspective.

A great summary, thanks for this. Very curious to see how Black Panther will do come February.

Glad you got something out of it. Personally, I think the Black Panther will break out! The positioning of this film has been brilliant. Black Panther is being released the same month as Deadpool over-performed and falls right in line with Black History Month. Black History Month and the fact this is the first mainstream superhero film starring an African American actor? I know it's not exactly the first black superhero, in the same way that Wonder Woman wasn't the same female superhero, but I think the mind-set from a lot of people is that it's the first black superhero film that could be great.

I updated it on Monday with last week's box office returns.

- Insidious continues to rake in the dough and has now made 14 million more than Insidious 3 did.
- Jumanji has been the real box-office juggernaut of January so far, and could finish with 850-900 million worldwide before the dust settles.
- Den of Thieves and 12 Strong both opened with solid results. They didn't light the box-office on fire, but they held their crowd and performed commendably, looking as though they will both at least break even early in their home market run.
- The Greatest Showman has been doing great business. The film dropped less than 12% this weekend (it's 5th weekend) and, in-fact, opened higher this weekend than it did in its opening weekend (back when it was competing with Star Wars). They turned what looked like a disappointment into an actual success!
- Paddington 2 dropped less in its second weekend than the first, but also opened considerably smaller.

*cracks knuckles*

February

Winchester
Result: Success
Box-Office: 33.5 million
Budget: 4.5 million

Thoughts: I didn't know what Winchester was until I started receiving information about it the week prior to its box-office debut. A supernatural horror film directed by the same guys that had found considerable success with the Jigsaw film a few months prior. Although, Winchester was ripped apart by critics, it managed to actually exceed what many analysts projected it would be able to gross. Although, it's unlikely it will hold very well, it's likely the film has already covered most, if not, all of its production budget. I'll wait until I receive more information about its production budget before I finalize a result, however.

- Update: Winchester's low-budget and modest return-on-investment make for a success for those involved.


The 15:17 to Paris
Result: Flop
Box-Office: 55.2 million
Budget: 36 million

Thoughts: Clint Eastwood's a good director, right? I'm seriously asking, as I can't remember watching any of his films and my copy of Iwo Jima is still collecting dust. Regardless, I know for sure he's well-received from a critical standpoint, a good portion of the time, and a few years back, his film American Sniper absolutely captured the zeitgeist. This film wasn't as lucky though, receiving negative reviews and a lukewarm response from moviegoers. I have a feeling that this film won't have a long run domestically and these films never do well overseas, so I suspect we're looking at a sure-fire disappointment that will likely cost the studio in the long-run. Hopefully Clint Eastwood will be able to turn it around in his next film.


Fifty Shades Freed
Result: Success
Box-Office: 367.9 million
Budget: 55 million

Thoughts: Once upon a time, on Valentine's Day, me and one of my home-boy's went to watch SpongeBob: Sponge out of Water and the Fifty Shades of Grey on a guy's night out. Both of them were disappointing, to be fair, I never really expected Fifty Shades to be a good film, I was just in this kick where I saw every movie that came out to theaters. Was disappointed with Sponge out of Water though, expected it to be Oscar-worthy. Fifty Shades Freed is trailing a little over 7 million behind Fifty Shades Darker's opening weekend, which trailed about 40 million behind the first Fifty Shades of Grey. For those that don't like the series (like me), thou can rejoice in celebration over the fact that the series loses more and more momentum as it progresses. Unfortunately, we're still looking at a film that's likely to cross 300 million worldwide with a budget of less than 60 million. The series has certainly lost its shine, but because it's conservative budget, it has managed to wrap itself as an extremely profitable film series.


Peter Rabbit
Result: Success
Box Office: 183.0 million
Budget: 50 million

Thoughts: I feel like I never really cared about this film at all. Obviously, 22-year old's that write box-office reports aren't likely the key-demographic for this type of film, but it had a certain stink to it that seemed so odorous I assumed everyone had to have smelled it too. Surprisingly, the film's reviews, while mixed, aren't completely negative, not like, say, The Emoji Movie, but, still not exactly worth celebrating over. The film opened to 25 million domestically, and honestly, I think it will hold well. I could see Peter Rabbit landing somewhere between 150-200 million with a little luck, making for a modestly successful animation (kind-of a parallel to Paddington 2, although, that film, of course, got glowing reviews).


Black Panther
Result: Huge Success
Box Office: 1.237 billion
Budget: 200 million

Thoughts: I think that most anticipated Black Panther would be able to succeed at the box-office, in-part due to being the first huge blockbuster film with a predominantly black cast, and also, in-part due to the film being released in Black History Month (and also the same month Deadpool had breakout success). That said, few could have predicted the mammoth success it has attained for itself. The film had the fifth highest opening of all-time at a domestic level and was able to even surpass Avengers: Age of Ultron's opening as well. That film, of course, went onto make 1.4 billion dollars worldwide, a feat I don't necessarily think Black Panther will be able to meet. I think this because I don't know if it will have the same global appeal as The Avengers has had overseas, but I do think we're looking at our first billion-dollar film of this year. I expect it to come close to Avengers on a domestic level.

Update: - I didn't cover this film much, but, ... Christ, it was hugely successful. It is the film to beat this year.


Early Man
Result: Flop
Box Office: 37 million
Budget: 50 million

Thoughts: Something I think many need to face is that stop-motion films don't have nearly enough interest to sufficiently warrant their existence from a box-office standpoint. Even a film as well-received as Kubo can be considered as a box-office flop. This film is from the guys who made Chicken Run, the highest grossing stop-motion film of all-time, but that goodwill didn't do nearly enough to assist Early Man in breaking even. Blame that on, not only a lack of popularity in the genre, but also a mostly uninteresting concept.


Game Night
Result: Modest Success
Box Office: 94.8 million
Budget: 37 million

Thoughts: I'll be honest - this film was not on my radar. I am a fan of Jason Bateman and I like Rachel McAdams, but, for some reason, I couldn't escape it's time of release and the concept, shaping up to be a bad attempt at capturing the same audience as Horrible Bosses. I haven't seen the film, but I can tell you that after the reviews started pouring in, I knew I would have to watch this film myself and see what I thought. That said, Game Night has thus far avoided being a box-office flop, but its hefty price-tag and marketing budget have kept it from amounting to a success. I don't know what kind of prospects it has in-terms of overseas appeal, but that's what will be the deciding-factor.


Annihilation
Result: Disappointment
Box Office: 31.4 million
Budget: 40 million

Thoughts: I didn't know much about this film and it would seem this is the perspective of many moviegoers, and it showed. The film received strong reviews from critics, but has failed to find a footing in theaters and it seemed as though it's too late for that to turn around. This will likely make a worthwhile addition, fondly looked at, in Natalie Portman's catalog, alongside everyone else involved, but it isn't a film that will churn a profit for the studios involved.

I don't know if you remember my coverage of last year, but Paramount did awful in 2017, and, more-or-less, cemented itself as no longer being a major studio, and while that's due to a lot of bad decisions, it's disappointing to see them still fail when they deliver a critical hit.


Every Day
Result: Unclear
Box Office: 6.7 million
Budget: 4.9 million

Thoughts: This is not a Nicholas Sparks film. My God. Joking aside, I don't think anyone was really enthusiastic about this film. Interestingly enough though, Every Day isn't receiving horrendous reviews, and if you're into these types of films, it might be worth a second-look on the home-market. That said, the budget was conservative, so it's misfortune won't be as damning as it could have been other-wise, but it looks like it won't move the needle of profitability in-general.

Im just not sure how I can rate this movie and be fair and not be yelled at for not thinking its not as good as I was expecting it to be based on all the hype. Sure its made a tone of Cash but we have learned money doesnt mean anything cause Last Jedi Made close to 1.4 Billion Worldwide but its either loved or hated depending on who you ask.

I liked it. Although, I recognize the fumbles it made as well. I am not very married to the Star Wars genre as a whole, however, and thereby, if I didn't enjoy certain aspects to begin with, I am more likely to enjoy diverting from said aspects more than a more devout Star Wars fan might.

The worst thing for Disney and Marvel is if this and Avengers 3 isnt close Box Office wise. Cause it means Avengers didnt deliver after all that time to make it cause while Black Panther is good ID not call it the best MCU film and there are many factors why it can make this big money. One being there is no competition for this Black Panther movie till Ready PLayer One and Tomb Raider.

Oh, I don't think The Avengers will have any trouble whatsoever surpassing Black Panther. After all, even Avengers: Age of Ultron will have made more worldwide than Black Panther did. Box office analysts have projected they believe Infinity Wars will come about one-hundred million short of Black Panther in-terms of domestic total, but it's too soon to make realistic projections just yet. Although, if I had to guess, I would also guess Black Panther will make more than Infinity Wars in the United States. The difference, however, is that I believe Avengers will have a better overseas appeal. Avengers: Age of Ultron was able to make almost a billion-dollars overseas. I personally think this film out-grosses the first Avengers and crosses 1.6 billion.

We'll see though.

No one really knows what Deadpool 2 or Solo will do either and It was good move for Disney to give Avengers and Solo some space.

True, true. It's definitely a more competitive landscape. I will say though, while I think Deadpool 2 will do really well, I think it will be from goodwill more than the quality of the sequel. Sequels are difficult, especially for comedies, and I've heard a lot of bad reactions, which may or may not have caused re-shoots. I think the film still crosses 600 million, but I think that a mixed reaction will make them more cautious with the X-Force expansion. That's more like a cynicism psychic prediction based on precedent, and I, for one, hope to love the film. I also don't know if I consider Solo as a massive threat to Avengers. Although The Last Jedi made 1.3 billion, that was over 700 million behind The Force Awakens, and this film is a spin-off film, and although Rogue One was able to cross a billion, it was about half of The Force Awakens. I think the law of diminishing returns, and the fact that they switched directors to Ron Howard, will cause middling reviews and deflated box-office returns, I think this film crossed 800 million but ultimately falls shy of a billion. And I think that should still be taken as a huge success.

Tomb Raider won't be any competition at all. I'd be surprised if it even made half of what Black Panther has.

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I'll up you one by saying it's unlikely Tomb Raider will make one sixth of what Black Panther has. Domestically, it looks like it will fall short of 100 million, and while I think it will do some lifting overseas, I don't think it will be able to get much past 200 million worldwide, if that.

I wasnt talking Box Office I was meaning Tomb Raider was the next film to be able to be Number 1. Lets be clear while Black Panther is good. It still didnt have any movie to even come close to beating it because Febuary is mostly bottum feeder stuff. Next likely Hit is either Pacific Rim 2 or Ready Player One. Tomb Raider will just be the movie to win Number 1 from Black Panther until Pacific Rim beats Tomb Raider. Tomb Raider wont make 80 Million Dollar domestically. There was not enough press for Tomb Raider or Pacific Rim 2 except that Pacific Rim for me awakens my youth love for Gundam Wing and Voltron.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/17/1...rse-box-office

It's possible some theaters aren't even going to bother to show anything else that weekend.

It might break 250 Million and The Force Awakens record.

ETA....and it looks like Tomb Raider flopped hard.

- Black Panther is set to once more reign supreme as the weekend's number one film, ahead of Tomb Raider.

I don't think we have enough information available to call it a "flop," but I definitely think the studio expected more from it. I'll try to talk about it in detail on Monday when I have more information.

Edit: Exactly what I expected. Although Tomb Raider only made a smidgen more than 20 million at the domestic box-office, which, if it had a multiplier on-par with Assassin's Creed, then it would barely cross 100 million at the domestic box-office. I don't know if that will happen, but that depends on its holds and how it faces off with its competition. I think it will be able to reach 80 million though, and honestly, that's not that bad.

Tomb Raider is at 126 million worldwide now though, propelled by a forty-million plus opening in China. (Notably, only about 10 million of that will go to Warner Bros., because China is known for taking 75% of movie profits.) In other-words, it might not have exploded in the United States, it is making up for it overseas. Whether it will hold is something that remains to be seen.

We know if it flops in the u.s chances are world wide don't matter. Look at at warcraft it made allot over seas but still in u.s and Canada its still a flop eye sore. There was no marketing for the reboot but then again you were replacing Angelina

Well I was just wrong. Looks like pacific rim 2 will be the movie to knock BP from number 1 slot. I'm certain there will be other movies shown in theaters least Rampage with the rock