January
Insidious: The Last Key
Result: Big Success
Box-Office: 165.9 million
Budget: 10 million
Thoughts: I don't know about all of you, but I've kept up with the Insidious franchise and I have a mixed-bag of emotions. I watched the second Insidious film in theaters, and it did nothing for me, and I would go as far as saying it was an Annabelle-caliber level of badness. However, when I watched Insidious, I enjoyed it a fair bit, and although Insidious: Chapter Three didn't match that, I definitely thought the boat had been righted. Of course, horror series' tend to beat the horse for all its worth, and even though we likely didn't need one, Insidious: The Last Key has arrived. The film has received negative reviews and all indications suggested it'd be the weakest (although, still successful) installment in the Insidious series, Insidious: The Last Key has over-performed. Released in January, which is oftentimes labeled where studios dump their "lesser" offerings, Insidious: The Last Key is on-pace to make more than Insidious 1 and 3, and although it won't match Insidious: Chapter 2's totals, the film has guaranteed a fifth installment. I like horror films and I like when they succeed as a fan of the genre, but I can't say I am excited by the idea of one more Insidious, since these series' tend to rehash more than innovate.
Update: - Insidious 4 has now eclipsed Insidious: Chapter 2's total, exceeding all expectations and beating Insidious: Chapter 2's total in the process. Wow.
The Commuter
Result: Modest Success
Box-Office: 105.5 million
Budget: 30 million
Thoughts: I'll have to wait until I have more information about this film before I say what I predict the result was. The film is directed by the same director Liam Neeson did the film Non Stop with and, in-comparison to that, The Commuter opened to about half of what Non-Stop made in the United States. On the bright-side though, The Commuter cost about 20 million less than what Non Stop did. The reviews aren't glowing about this film, but they aren't scathing about it either. The reason I can't really say the result is because it hasn't made enough of a footprint in the overseas market. Non Stop was able to cross 200 million worldwide, however, and while The Commuter won't come anywhere close to that, if it's able to create some traction and make half of that worldwide, the film will be a modest success.
Update - I went ahead and marked The Commuter as a modest success, as the film has officially doubled its production budget and will likely be able to break-even sometime in its home-market release.
Mary and the Witch's Flower
Result: Success
Box-Office: 31.1 million
Budget: ?
Thoughts: I oftentimes ignored certain foreign films last year when I reported box office information, and I don't know that I will fix that, but I will try and make more of an effort to recognize them. This film is directed by the same gentleman who directed When Marnie Was There, and this film has actually out-grossed that film. Although I can't find the budget for this film, the budget for that animation was just over 10 million, and so, it can be assumed this film has already been a success for those involved. And, while the film had a release in the United States, it's oftentimes on the home video market that Japanese animation has a second-life in the States. In other-words, Mary and the Witch's Flower was a modest success at the box-office and will likely have a fruitful time at the home market in the States and in Japan, respectively.
Proud Mary
Result: Disappointment
Box-Office: 21.6 million
Budget: 14-30 million
Thoughts: Proud Mary finished last among the new releases for its opening weekend, pocketing about 10 million. The film, which is directed by the gentleman who directed the successful London has Fallen film, has received negative reviews from critics and hasn't had an enthused response at the box-office. Still, it's worth noting that London has Fallen's biggest returns came from overseas markets and it looks as though the film still has a shot at 25 million in the United States. The 14-30 million dollar budget discrepancy is a large one, as well. I would say that the film hasn't done very well at the domestic market, but the jury is still out on its foreign turnout.
The Post
Result: Unclear
Box-Office: 123 million (1.9 million from 2017)
Budget: 50 million
Thoughts: Although, I didn't initially intend to talk about The Post in this thread on-account of how it technically released in 2017, I decided that since the film was only released in 9 theaters, I would go ahead and allow it. I don't know much about this film, but I know enough about it to realize it as a potential hit. Directed by Spielberg, starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, this film is aimed at winning Oscars, and bolstered by its positive acclaim, there's a distinct chance that it will. Right now, The Post hasn't left much of a mark at the box-office, but it could have large growth as the Award Season heats up.
Paddington 2
Result: Success
Box-Office: 204 million
Budget: 50 million
Thoughts: It's worth noting, of course, that most of Paddington 2's box office came from 2017 and, really, only the domestic totals are from 2018. The film is the highest reviewed film ever on Rotten Tomatoes, but hasn't really set the world on fire in the United States. Of course, there's a chance it will have significant holds, but that doesn't look like what will happen. It opened behind the first film, which was only able to make 70 or so million in domestic total, and so, this film could end up with about 50 million. It's not a fatal turn-out, however, because the film's real prospects are seen in the overseas markets, particularly, the United Kingdom. Long story short, it looks like the film will be a modest success, but hopefully it's strong reception will be able to make it more than that.
Phantom Thread
Result: Unclear
Box-Office: 10 million
Budget: 35 million
Thoughts: Phantom Thread is being called the final role for actor Daniel Day-Lewis, and received two nominations at the Golden Globes. The film premiered late last-year, but it's in January that Phantom Thread arrives in wide release. Unfortunately, although, the film has received a strong reception, it did not light the box-office on fire like one might have hoped. Of course, this film is one for the awards, so to speak, and if it is able to stir up some buzz at the Oscars, then, it will take a second-life. However, if that does not happen, one can expect a short shelf-life in theaters.
12 Strong
Result: Disappointment
Box-Office: 35 million
Budget: 58.5 million
Thoughts: 12 Strong has received a mixed-reaction from critics, with the going reception being that it is a well-intention'ed, if, a little by the numbers, film. Boasted by its star-power and the patriotic message, 12 Strong managed to surpass expectations with its box-office total. Although, the film didn't do great, it did commendably well and, once more, exceeded expectations, and while it likely won't have a great life overseas, it should still be able to recoup its budget.
Update: - Although the film started with a lot of promise, it has since went out with more of a whimper than a bang. The budget, in-general, was a little too ambitious from the get-go, and from the looks of it, it will not be able to fully cover its marketing and production budget.
Den of Thieves
Result: Modest Success
Box-Office: 72.5 million
Budget: 30 million
Thoughts: This is a solid film for STX Entertainment, which is still trying to find some solid footing for itself in the industry. Although, the film opened a smidgen behind of 12 Strong, it has a smaller production budget and likely had a more conservative marketing budget as well, notably opening in much less theaters. I'll keep up with it though, as it's still unclear where it will land when the dust has settled. Call it cautious optimism.
Update: - Although it might not look that different, Den of Thieves played a lot better than 12 Strong, considering the 5 million lighter production budget, and a smaller marketing campaign altogether. This film isn't a hit, but it looks like it might be able to break-even on the home-market.
Forever My Girl
Result: Modest Success
Box-Office: 16.2 million
Budget: 4.7 million
Thoughts: Forever My Girl has received negative reviews from critics. This should be a surprise to no one that has seen trailers for this film. This was never a film that was expected to win over the critics, it was targeting a different crowd. Although, the film didn't open to groundbreaking results, but the production budget is small enough that it will be able to recoup it from its theatrical profits. It's now a matter of whether or not it will have enough juice to cover its marketing budget, or if it will have to depend on its home video sales to do so.
Update - This film actually dropped a very light 12.7% in its second weekend, which is very impressive given the reception the film received. Forever My Girl has already almost doubled its production, and if it's able to keep some momentum, it should get close to covering its marketing budget before its home video sales do it.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure
Result: Success
Box-Office: 283.5 million
Budget: 62 million
Thoughts: Once upon a time, I watched The Maze Runner and thought it was actually an enjoyable film. The concept was unique and I didn't mind the characters, and yeah, a fun flick. The Scorch Trials went ahead and ruined all that goodwill for me though, providing a very dull film altogether. I am not saying that Maze Runner 2 affected the results for this film, but I definitely don't think it helped build much momentum. The mixed-to-negative reviews and the fact this film came out a year later than what it was intended (due to an injury with the main-actor), likely didn't help things at all. Still, even though Maze Runner 3 opened with considerably less flare than its predecessors and even though the film cost more than both of those films, it looks like it will still be a success for those involved. I think the film has a pretty fair chance at 200-225 million and it only needs about 150 million to break-even. Add in the synergy it will perhaps have on the earlier Maze Runner films, and it looks like this trilogy will wrap up in satisfying fashion from a box-office perspective.