Highest Grossing Movie This Year Domestically?

HitFix has an article about the very thing we've been talking about in here:

Highly relevant quote from earlier:

Looks very likely to open in the same general range as The Avengers. Its legs should be at least nearly as good, though Avengers had tremendous word of mouth, so it's hard to imagine improving on that much.

$$ argument aside, there is no way that "The Avengers" is in the same leauge of anticipation as "Rises".

Not even close.

I heard there is a chance it might. And it that happened that could shatter box office records.

But it will probably be just on DVD and Blue Ray.

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The Dark Knight Rises is destined to be the next Spiderman 3. I just don't like the villain at all. The Dark Knight like I said was great mainly because of Heath Ledger's performance as the Joker.

Are you just saying these things to provoke a reaction?

You literally have no precedent to say this at all. You haven't seen the film. Nolan has never really made a "bad" film. At this point in his career he pretty much has complete control of his films (to the point that he doesn't even use a second unit, and there are very few filmmakers out there who shoot like that). This trilogy is basically his legacy at this point in his career and I can't imagine he would just phone this one in.

Bottom line; what you are saying is pure, nonsensical poopy-poop.

EDIT: Are you even aware of what went wrong in the making of Spider-Man 3? Avi Arad, one of the films producers, wanted Venom to be in the film (as legend puts it). Raimi wanted to do Sandman. It became a creative battle over which villain or villains to put in the film and eventually Raimi lost. He didn't have as much say so in the making of the third film as he did with the first two and that creative struggle showed up in the film. I assure you that this did not happen with The Dark Knight Rises.

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Not even close? Based on ticket sales and the typical measures of audience anticipation, it seems like they're actually quite close.

Anyway, yeah, cue the refrain about Nolan gettin' no respect. I'm still amazed at how a guy's sterling track record can get trumped by, like, a single photo of Bane drinking coffee on the set, or Catwoman's outfit.

I agree with Gandolf.

Everyone keeps saying this, but leading up to The Avengers everyone I knew was excited, but not overly so. The Dark Knight Rises has people salivating like dogs. The general reaction to the two films is completely different with pretty much everyone I come in contact with; be it in real life or on the internet.

Compare the 15-16 pages of Avengers talk in the upcoming films section of the forums to the 60+ pages for The Dark Knight Rises. Every single piece of TDKR promotional material gets scrutinized and picked apart; often on the front page of Yahoo as if it's actual news. How many of The Avengers trailers were front page news leading to its release? How many of its posters were analyzed for glimpses into the films plot?

I keep saying this, but you all just keep ignoring it. The hype for TDKR is off the charts.

I haven't really ignored it, but to the degree I do it's because it's completely subjective. We can't measure that type of "hype," nor is it even clear that it's an indicator of box office success, because tickets sold to really excited people don't cost any more than tickets sold to mildly excited ones. Obviously, excitement tells us something, but it's not remotely clear what kind of excitement is more valuable at such a massive scale.

Also, things like the length of discussions are kinda beside the point. The Dark Knight Rises lends itself to analysis and conjecture. The Avengers doesn't. It's an entirely different kind of film. It's fun and breezy; there's not a lot there to analyze. You won't find analysis of great comedies, either, because comedies aren't meant to be analyzed that way. It doesn't mean people don't get excited about comedies, it just means some films are more conducive to discussion than others. Memento generates 100 times the discussion of Alice in Wonderland, but the latter made, like, 20 times as much money.

Here's all we actually know: among the industry measures that purport to measure audience excitement, things look close. These probably aren't perfect, but they seem pretty good, and most importantly, they're measuring for box office purposes.

If you asked me what the most anticipated film was, I'd have given a very different answer. But with blockbuster hits, it's the breadth, more than the depth, that determines box office. That and 3D glasses.

I like Batman he is my second favorite super hero. That being said I stick to that this film is going to suffer from its choice of villain. I wish Two Face hadn't died. He would have made a great villain. I am just not pumped up for this Batman film as I was for Dark Knight or even Batman returns.

None of that means it will be "another Spider-Man 3". Just because you don't like Bane, doesn't mean it will be a bad film. In fact, it doesn't even mean you will hate the film.

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"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." - Michelangelo.

I told you all over and over that you had defective hype-meters! Y'all should have listened!

Check it out!

This still doesn't mean it's going to break Avengers record. I'm not denying the hype for the film, to me it is the most hyped film of this year. But I still don't think it's near TDK.

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Suspect's Reviews

Dude, that article says, even with all that huge tracking, that's it "might even" have a shot at beating The Avengers.

I like TDKR's chances slightly more tha I did a month ago, but it's still going to be close.

It is either going to barely beat the Avengers. Or barely make less than the Avengers made.

TDKR is tracking at $180 million dollars. The Avengers made $207.4 million dollars on it's opening weekend.

I still say the Avengers barely hangs on to the number one spot.

And watch the Hobbit come out of no where be make more money than both films lol.

Yeah, the opening weekend gross is going to be right there, I think, right around $200 million. And it wouldn't shock me if I woke up and found it surged to $215 million or something insane. Most analysts seem to be betting it'll fall just short, but that it'll have an absolutely insane Midnight number, and I think I'd agree on both counts.

Anyway, the real thing is going to be legs, both here and overseas. I think TDKR is going to be a bit of a bummer compared to the previous films (to say nothing of The Avengers, which was the embodiment of a rip-roarin' good time), and that might hurt the repeat viewing a bit.

Though, again, we're talking tiny, marginal differences between two blockbuster behemoths. They're both so massive that we kind of have to start picking the nits to figure out which comes out on top. If we just go by "are they really hyped?" or "are they gonna make a ton of money?" it's not really going to tell us anything we don't already know. At this ridiculous level of box office performance, things like tone and runtime and 3D and IMAX are going to be the difference.

My poor hyperbole is wasted...

Realistically, I can see it breaking the opening weekend record. I do predict about $210 million or so. However, I also agree with your point about the film having legs. It may burn bright for a couple of weeks and then fade away whereas I can still go see The Avengers at a non-dollar theater as of writing this.

I still say TDKR wins in the end.

Re: legs. When The Avengers opened all gangbusters I asked, somewhat rhetorically, whether the typical conception of "legs" really applied for the truly massive films. Films like My Big Fat Greek Wedding can make 100 times their opening weekend draw because they start off with so few people knowing they exist. And most non-massive films, if they're great, will break out into other parts of the culture and show good "legs" at the box office as a result.

But The Avengers' domestic run (it's still going, but it's just about done now) made almost exactly 3 times its opening weekend, domestically, which is only slightly above average for most films. A film with the reviews of Avengers or TDKR would normally make 4-5 times its opening weekend gross, easy, but if the opening weekend gross is that huge there's only so far it can go. Beyond that it really needs a) high ticket prices from extras like 3D or IMAX and b) repeat viewing.

I think repeat viewing might be the hidden wild card here. I can totally see TDKR being very good, but a little downbeat and a little long and not the kind of film people want to see 3-4 times even if they really like it. If it fails to overtake The Avengers in total domestic, I'll bet that will be one of the reasons why, as much as the lack of 3D.

I do think it has a better shot at opening weekend, though. The midnight gross is going to be insane.

Oh the midnight release will be huge.

But I don't think it is going to be a movie that you will want to see more than once in theaters. Whereas the Avengers is something people saw three to four times in theaters.