Anything can happen in fantasy football in a given week, and that's why it is bad and stupid. And that's why even having a team that looks great on paper, a team that set the league points record this year, is a very stressful affair. It's why I'd only make myself about a 65% favorite this week. In fact, I'll go further: I think the only way to be a huge favorite in this league is if the other team is really bad. If both teams even meet the threshold of "decent" you're probably never going to be much better than a 2-to-1 favorite.
And Justin's team, as you might guess, goes beyond "decent." It's a very good team, third in points this year, albeit at the top of a big pileup of mostly-equal squads. It's only put up a few big totals this year, but it's also put up very few duds; the center of gravity seems to be right around 110 points. So while I probably won't lose if I have a decent (or better) day...there's a pretty strong chance I lose if I don't. Justin's isn't a team that's very likely to bail me out in that scenario, which is expected given that we're down to just four squads.
How likely are those scenarios? Well, let's talk matchups:
Aaron Rodgers has rebeastified this year (I noticed, because I'm the poor fool who ponied up for him in the draft last year and got a really bad return). He's a very close second at QB behind Mahomes, and Justin got him in the 7th round. He's got an average matchup with Carolina. But he's been steady enough that the matchups generally haven't hinged on him. They've hinged on guys like DK Metcalf, who has a tough matchup against Washington. It'll be tougher if Gibson comes back and helps them control the time of possession, too, and given that I'm Gibson's owner that makes this particular injury situation the most important thing to watch in this matchup. Pretty much everyone else on Justin's team has an okay matchup: not good, not great. I'll take it.
Things are mixed on my end: the Titans get a great matchup in Detroit, but both Thielen and Hill have tougher ones and both are still generally very TD-dependent. That's how favorites lose playoff games, though having a few guys like that means a lot of playmakers have to miss out on paydirt at the same time. Kamara might be the biggest wild card: his matchup's fine (KC, though hopefully that at least means it'll be high-scoring in general), but it looks like Brees won't play, which has been pretty clearly bad for him so far. But Taysom Hill did get the ball to him in the air a lot more this past week, so maybe that's mitigated. I don't know.
Flex is the only real choice on my end, and it could be a real tough one: Gibson's the obvious play if he seems genuinely healthy, but coming back from turf two after a couple of weeks is dicey. I will not love playing him even if they say he's fine...but I probably still will, if only because Claypool's range of outcomes is pretty high in general, particularly with Pittsburgh's offense struggling right now.
Oh, and heads up on the defenses, since they played a huge role for a lot of teams this past week, and I snagged a couple of Ds with strong playoff matchups in the weeks leading up to this.
As Hey Fred said, his team struggled last week, and in fantasy that's really all the Bye gets you: one fewer dice roll, the ability dodge the chance you'll just happen to have an awful week, or your opponent will happen to have an exceptional one. Turns out, he needed it, but fair's fair after going 11-2 in the regular season and finishing a clear 2nd in points, with plenty of breathing room from the 3rd-6th points pileup. Before that, though, his team scored 117, 111, and 130 points. He's only had a couple weeks all year you could call average, and just two you could call bad.
The big news here is that McCaffrey looks likely to miss another game, which means both that Spaulding does without him and that Fred can roll with Mike Davis in a good matchup. That's a really rough swing.
Overall, average matchups for Spaulding: good for Dobbins (though usage is a concern there), bad for Thomas (probably; still no Brees and KC's been good against receivers, but maybe the Saints play from behind and throw a lot?), and decent for Akers. That last name could be the driving force behind the upset, if it happens, as Akers has finally taken the primary role for the Rams and put up strong totals the last few weeks.
It's a real question whether Kyler Murray has come back down to earth a little, too. He was on an absolute MVP-level tear until a few weeks ago, and it's hard to say how much of his recent performance to blame on a possible lingering shoulder injury, versus the general unsustainability of his pace and the inevitability of defenses adjusting. That said, even this new, apparently mortal Murray seems good for 20+, so at worst we might just be looking at a guy who's not gonna win this one for Spaulding by himself. And that might be fine, since Watson (whose primarily value has been his stupidly high floor; he hasn't scored below 16 all season), has a tough matchup with Indy.
I'd probably go with Hey Fred here even if both teams were at full strength (wincing while doing it because McCaffrey's about as likely as any non-QB to put up 30+), but with the McCaffrey-Davis flip there'll be no wincing. You can see the path to the upset, but it's narrow.
Reply to Topic
