This thought occured to me about not knowing who will win Best Picture

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I just know they're coming to kill me.
...wouldn't the number of statues left at the end of the night tell you who is going to collect them?

For example, some Best Picture winners have had three Oscars handed out, others have had more than that. Now this thought only matters to whoever is handing out the awards, but you'd have to figure that, by the count remaining at the end of the night, you could pretty much wager who is taking those statues home.

Unless I'm missing something (and I probably am) and they're more lock-and-key about that than I realize.
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Everything I do, I do to make my second stepdad proud.



Good question. My best guess is they have, for all the varied producers that might win for Best Picture, enough for even the "highest" number, but they're not engraved or anything and they just hand out however many are necessary, and then get them the real ones later.



...wouldn't the number of statues left at the end of the night tell you who is going to collect them?

For example, some Best Picture winners have had three Oscars handed out, others have had more than that. Now this thought only matters to whoever is handing out the awards, but you'd have to figure that, by the count remaining at the end of the night, you could pretty much wager who is taking those statues home.

Unless I'm missing something (and I probably am) and they're more lock-and-key about that than I realize.

In the old day the BP winner used to have 3-4 categories where the earlier wins would push them to the prize (editing, screenplay, director)...that's changed over the years.

For Example
30's Director (5/10)
40's Director (7/10)
50's Director (7/10)
60's Director (9/10)
70's Director (9/10)
80's Director (8/10)
90's Director (9/10)
00's Director (8/10)
10's Director (5/10)
20's Director (2/3)

It's changed drastically over the past few years





Yes, the Oscar statues given out at the ceremony are not engraved but "blank". Ahead of the ceremony engraved plates are made for every single nominee. After the winner does their backstage press conference their statue is briefly taken from them and the appropriate plate attached. The unused plates are all recycled.

The Producers receive the statues for Best Picture. Here are the Academy rules for who qualifies as an official nominee in that category...

The individual(s) who shall be credited for Academy Award purposes must have screen credit of “producer” or “produced by.” Persons with screen credits of executive producer, co-producer, associate producer, line producer, produced in association with or any other credit shall not receive nominations or Academy statuettes. The nominees will be those three or fewer producers who have performed the major portion of the producing functions. In determining the number of producers eligible for nomination, a bona fide team of not more than two people shall be considered to be a single “producer” if the two individuals have had an established producing partnership as determined by the PGA’s Producing Partnership Panel. To qualify as a producer nominee for a nominated picture, the producer must have been determined eligible for a PGA award for the picture, or have appealed the PGA’s refusal of such eligibility. Final determination of the qualifying producer nominees for each nominated picture will be made by the Producers Branch Executive Committee, including the right to name any additional qualified producer as a nominee.
So by those rules it sounds like you can have up to three named producers or producing pairs, so I guess up to six statues, maximum? In theory. But since the statues are unmarked until after the winners are announced, I would expect there are "extras" backstage.

Speaking of "extra" Oscar statues, coincidentally I just visited The Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles, CA this past weekend, and on Saturday afternoon I got to hold and "accept" an unengraved actual Oscar as one of the attractions at the museum. Sadly I did not get to keep it. But it was pretty cool, and yes, just as everybody says when they pick it up for the first time, they are heavy.

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"Film is a disease. When it infects your bloodstream it takes over as the number one hormone. It bosses the enzymes, directs the pineal gland, plays Iago to your psyche. As with heroin, the antidote to Film is more Film." - Frank Capra



I just know they're coming to kill me.
In the old day the BP winner used to have 3-4 categories where the earlier wins would push them to the prize (editing, screenplay, director)...that's changed over the years.

For Example
30's Director (5/10)
40's Director (7/10)
50's Director (7/10)
60's Director (9/10)
70's Director (9/10)
80's Director (8/10)
90's Director (9/10)
00's Director (8/10)
10's Director (5/10)
20's Director (2/3)

It's changed drastically over the past few years
Pardon my ignorance, but I don't think I quite follow what you're saying?



Pardon my ignorance, but I don't think I quite follow what you're saying?
As for as predicting what will win Best Picture. In past Academy Awards eras the movie with the most nominations and that had won the most awards leading up to Best Picture was likely to be named the winner at the end of the night, too, especially if it won Best Director. That trend is changing, and now a film can win Best Picture as one of only a few total wins that night.

This year's winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, is an exception to that new trend and more akin with classic models. But last year CODA won Best Picture and only two other awards: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor (its only three nominations, it wasn't even nominated for Best Director).



I just know they're coming to kill me.
As for as predicting what will win Best Picture. In past Academy Awards eras the movie with the most nominations and that had won the most awards leading up to Best Picture was likely to be named the winner at the end of the night. That trend is changing, and now a film can win Best Picture as one of only a few total wins that night.

This year's winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, is an exception to that new trend. But last year CODA won Best Picture and only two other awards: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor (its only three nominations).
Ah, okay, yeah, I remember that growing up with my dad telling me that whoever won Best Director usually meant you knew what was going to win Best Picture more than likely.

That's cool you got to hold one. I've held an Emmy before, and they are bulky too.



Ah, okay, yeah, I remember that growing up with my dad telling me that whoever won Best Director usually meant you knew what was going to win Best Picture more than likely.
Yes, except that has been changing of late.

Since 1967 when Mike Nichols won Best Director for The Graduate but In the Heat of the Night was named Best Picture, there have been fourteen instances where the two big awards split. Fourteen times in fifty-four years is not a lot, only 26%. However, eight of those mismatches were from 1967-2011 and just in the last ten Oscars it has happened SIX more times. Eight times over four decades then six times in the last ten. That is a huge change. Whether it is tied directly to the run-off or preferential ballot system that was employed starting in 2009 or is simply some dissolution of the auteur theory over time, it is no longer a given that the Best Picture of the year will have the Best Director.

An even stranger trend is that, discounting the first few Oscar ceremonies before the number of nominees and the format of the awards took shape, there have only been four times that a film won Best Picture without its director even being nominated…and three of them are also during this last decade. Argo won Picture while Affleck went unnominated (Ang Lee won for Life of Pi), Green Book won Picture while Peter Farrelly went unnominated (Alfonso Cuarón won for Roma), and just last year CODA won Picture while Jane Campion picked up Best Director for Power of the Dog. Driving Miss Daisy/Oliver Stone for Born on the Fourth of July is the only other instance in the modern history of the Oscars. The other three recent mismatches where the director was nominated but lost were 12 Years a Slave (Alfonso Cuarón won for Gravity), Spotlight (Alejandro González Iñárritu won for The Revenant), and Moonlight (Damien Chazelle won for La La Land).



I just know they're coming to kill me.
God, I also remember when the Oscars were on Monday nights instead of Sunday's, and then there were a few that had them on Wednesday's. Again, I remember my father telling me that they ultimately moved to Sunday nights due to overlap with the NCAA March Madness college basketball tournament, but who knows if that was actually the case. Makes sense though.



The Academy moved the Oscars from Mondays to Sundays in 1999. The resistance to Sunday for decades had been that is a big box office day and the industry would rather have fans spending money on movie tickets than at home watching TV. It also stopped the West Coast audience from having to rush home after work to watch the broadcast (it starts about 5:00pm in Los Angeles). Also staying up late on the East Coast is theoretically easier on a Sunday turning into Monday rather than Monday into Tuesday.

March Madness didn't enter into it.



Speaking of "extra" Oscar statues, coincidentally I just visited The Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles, CA this past weekend
I'd be interested in hearing more about this (either here or in a dedicated thread). I think it was during the Oscar Chat that a few of us were wondering aloud what the museum's like, if it's worth visiting, etc.



I just know they're coming to kill me.
It also stopped the West Coast audience from having to rush home after work to watch the broadcast (it starts about 5:00pm in Los Angeles).
You know, for some reason, I'd like to watch the Academy Awards on the West Coast at least once in my life, because for no excuse other than it pissed me off as a child that I would have to go to bed before the good awards were handed out. I'd do it for him.

Watching them at 5pm, especially on a Monday, just resonates weirdly with me. Almost unnatural feeling, really.



You know, for some reason, I'd like to watch the Academy Awards on the West Coast at least once in my life, because for no excuse other than it pissed me off as a child that I would have to go to bed before the good awards were handed out. I'd do it for him.

Watching them at 5pm, especially on a Monday, just resonates weirdly with me. Almost unnatural feeling, really.
I lived in Portland, OR for about seven years as well as San Francisco, CA for a couple before that. The Oscars ending at 9:00pm rather than midnight was nice, I guess, but it also starts during the daylight hours which is weird. Having seen many more on the East Coast than the West, I prefer that. But it is what I grew up doing.



I just know they're coming to kill me.
I lived in Portland, OR for about seven years as well as San Francisco, CA for a couple before that.
I forgot you lived in Portland. It's a place I want to check out at some point in life.



God, I also remember when the Oscars were on Monday nights instead of Sunday's, and then there were a few that had them on Wednesday's. Again, I remember my father telling me that they ultimately moved to Sunday nights due to overlap with the NCAA March Madness college basketball tournament, but who knows if that was actually the case. Makes sense though.
I've been watching the Oscars since 1969 and I don't remember the show ever being on any day but Sunday.