Award Predictions

I think among all the nominees the only movie that is a proper mix of daring piece of art and commercially viable piece of entertainment is vice. Rest of them are either too much dependent of name brand IP like ASIB or too artsy like first man/ beale street could talk. Blackkklansman feels way too on then nose.

So I expect vice to be nominated for best actor(bale), best supporting actress(amy adams), best supporting actor(rockwell/carrell),best original screenplay,best director,best film editing , best make up and best picture. Thats eight nominations.

but first man bombed at the box office. That will effect its chances significantly. No one wants to reward a loser.

Moonlight did 27 million box office. Not sure how much voters consider it. First Man is pretty great and impeccable from a production standpoint. I will be pretty surprised if it is not heavily represented. Whether that translates to wins is another matter.

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And the Oscar for willful obtusity goes to...

Best Picture (producer)
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay(writer)
Best Actor
Best S. Actor (The Mule)


They only submitted Lady Gaga songs
“Shallow” written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt.
“I’ll Never Love Again” written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey, and Aaron Raitiere
“Always Remember Us This Way” written by Lady Gaga, Natalie Hemby, Hillary Lindsey, and Lori McKenna

I was hoping they would nominate five songs and sweep the category

If The Mule gets good reviews I can see it being a swan song nomination.

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Suspect's Reviews

Perhaps for actor I don't know about director you've got four locks and then three people fighting for one open spot

• Cuaron (Roma)
• Cooper (A Star is Born)
• Farley (Green Book)
• Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Lanthimos (The Favorite)
McKay (Vice)
Lee (Black Klansman)

Didn’t realize the last two were locks. I never even heard of em.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toront...s_Choice_Award








If Beale Street Could Talk is Barry Jenkin's follow up to Moonlight


Green Book won the audience prize at Toronto which is basically the pre-Oscar


Peter Farrelly did Shallow Hal, Dumb and Dumber, and There's Something About Mary. I don't think the academy is going to give the film any major awards because of politics but it's likely going to finish second to A Star is Born for Oscar nom count.

Gotta wonder how far Roma or Buster Scruggs will go, given that they’re Netflix films.

I’ll take that bet.

Ok, I am now convinced that A Star is Born will sweep the top awards, and by that I mean Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. The movie will also win for Best Song (The Shallow). So that's 5 awards at least. If it doesn't go that way, it will be an utter disappointment.

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I don't know, man, the movie about a notoriously corrupt vice-president where the title is a play on how the word "vice" can also refer to immoral behaviour doesn't exactly sound any less on-the-nose than BlacKkKlansman does.

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I am talking about the content of the movie and not the title. Title is only there to bring the audience into the theaters. Adam McKay has a pretty large fanbase. So, all it takes for them to show up to the movie theaters is a dramedy with an interesting title. There are not gonna show up to a movie called the edge of tomorrow by Adam McKay. Blackkklasman is not subtle in the content of the film. I am okay with the title being on the nose but the content of the movie is too on the nose.

I know its cool and edgy to speak in hyperbole but a star is born is a remake and an IP. There is large built in fanbase to the brand of ASIB. Even 1970s version made a ton of money. So, there is no risk involved in this movie. ASIB is like batman. As good as it is the dark knight is not that risky of a movie. All these a considered by Oscar voters because they are people that work in the industry who knows how movies get made and they know that this movie is not that difficult to get made. To us its just a movie but to them they know the inner working of how risky a movie is. That will effect its chances significantly

I'm not sure fanbase appeal works like that, but whatever. At least the title is pretty blunt about its double-meaning as opposed to The Big Short (which I assumed was comparing the GFC to an electrical short). The content of Vice certainly doesn't look subtle, which we'll have to see if it's either a strength or a weakness (never mind the parade of actors-in-heavy-makeup we're bound to get).

Until now whenever Hollywood took a crack at bush presidency it failed. Because all of them went way too serious and they focused on the least interesting character among them all , bush himself. W. was a piece of crap. Trying to find the motivations of bush during his presidency is the dumbest thing to do. Thanks Oliver stone. Adam McKay is going to make it interesting for sure. All his movies were a hit for me and to a large extent his fanbase. It doesn't have to be subtle. It just has to effectively get the point across. Blackkklansman was not interesting. It was just way to dumb and I don't expect any better from spike lee. Who hasn't made a decent movie in like ever. He is just good at being angry than making watchable films. Trust me, everyone in hollywood knows that movie about a bush presidency is a hard sell . If Adam McKay can bring the magic to the screen however he does, subtly or overtly and most importantly if it gets nominated for awards then this movie is in the green.

Speaking of being subtle, there is a difference between saying a lot about character just by looking at them and having to explain to audience about each character through dialogue. One look at Sam Rockwell and bale dynamic you can see that one is a light weight and other is this evil old man.

My early predictions


Picture - A Star is Born
Director - Brady Cooper, A Star is Born
Actor - Brady Cooper, A Star is Born
Actress - Glen Close, The Wife
S Actor - Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
S Actress - Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
A Screenplay - If Beale Street Could Talk
O Screenplay - Green Book
Editing - A Star is Born
Cinematography - First Man
Costume Design - The Favorite
Make-up - Stan & Ollie
Production design - The Favorite
Visual Effects -Black Panther
Sound Editing - Quiet Place
Sound Mixing - A Star is Born
Animated Feature - Isle of Dogs
Documentary - Won't You be my Neighbor
Song - A Star is Born
Score - A Star is Born

Best Actress nominees will definitely include Lady Gaga for A Star is Born and Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns.

I'm also seeing a big chance Melissa McCarthy gets nominated for Will You Ever Forgive Me, which is garnering her rave reviews.


So far, I'm seeing Lady Gaga have the upper hand. She will, or should, sweep every Best Actress award this season.


Cynthia Erivo, as I've mentioned before will get a Best Supporting Actress nod for either Bad Times at the El Royale or Widows.


Meryl Streep could get a Supporting nod for Mary Poppins Returns.

I'll just make my Oscar nominee prediction list here (Names or titles with an * means they are possible nominees):


BEST PICTURE
A Star is Born
Green Book
The Old Man & The Gun
Boy Erased
First Man
The Hate U Give
The Vice
BlacKkKlansman
Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots*

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (The Vice)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)

Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)*
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)*


BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Lukas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)

Christian Bale (The Vice)*
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)*
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)*
Steve Carrell (Beautiful Boy)*

BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Melissa McCarthy (Will You Ever Forgive Me?)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give)

Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)*
Rosamund Pike (Private War)*
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)*


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Marshalla Ali (Green Book)
Steve Carrell (The Vice)

Bradley Cooper (The Mule)*
Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give)*


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Bad Times at the El Royale OR Widows)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina Hall (The Hate U Give)

Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)*

BEST SCREENPLAY (Original or Adapted)
Mid90's
A Star is Born
Boy Erased
A Quiet Place
Green Book
First Man
The Hate U Give
The Vice
BlacKkKlansman
Eightth Grade

Black Panther *


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Smallfoot
The Incredibles 2
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Black Panther
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Avengers: Infinity War