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July
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Result: Huge Success
Budget: 175 million
Box Office: < 875 million
Notes: Spider-Man: Homecoming came to theaters with a bang, grossing 117 million domestically and 257 million worldwide. In-comparison to The Amazing Spider-Man series, Jon Watts' film opened substantially more than both films and the word-of-mouth suggests that Homecoming is poised to make more than both films on a domestic level. As a matter of fact, Sony is boasting this as the second most successful opening for a Spider-Man film, which is technically accurate, but a little bit misleading to those that don't have the facts straight. For example, some installments opened on Wednesdays, thereby negating any really fair direct comparison, also, if you were to adjust for inflation, Homecoming opened behind all three of the Sam Raimi films. Still, that's besides the point, Spider-Man: Homecoming marks a tremendous success for Sony and Marvel alike.
The film shaved about seventy-five million off its production budget in-comparison to what the last Amazing Spider-Man film cost, and it looks like it will be a return to major profitability for the iconic franchise. I think the film will finish somewhere over the 800 million mark worldwide, and it could perhaps even go more than that, depending how it does in China. Ultimately, I think this film will have solid holds because its word-of-mouth and the positive reviews it has received.
7/17/17 Update: The film dropped 61% in its second weekend, which is exactly the same as what The Amazing Spider-Man 2 did. The only difference is that this film cost a whopping 75 million less than that film and is also pacing 50 million ahead on a domestic level. Considering the amount of juice it has left and the fact that it still has China left (where The Amazing Spider-Man 2 made almost 100 million), I still think it has a good-shot at ending up around 800 million.
7/24/17 Update: Spider-Man experienced a 50% drop in its third weekend, which is only a little better than what The Amazing Spider-Man 2 did (we're talking a 2% difference). That film went on to make another 30 million at the domestic level, if the comparison sticks, that suggests that Spider-Man: Homecoming will fall somewhere around 280 million domestically, however, there's still a small chance that it will clear 300 million worldwide if it holds well during the weekdays. The film will finish ahead of both The Amazing Spider-Man films domestically (though, when adjusted for inflation, The Amazing Spider-Man made 299 million), but has no chance of even challenging the movies from the Sam Raimi series. Worldwide, the film is at 571 million, but still has a few markets left to debut in, including China, where the last Spider-Man film made 100 million.
7/31/17 Update: Spider-Man: Homecoming is at over 630 million worldwide, ahead of its premiere in China, the film is most certainly poised to cross the 700 million threshold. The film still has a little bit of juice left, and I think the film will be able to reach at least 660 million worldwide in its current territories. This makes it seem unlikely that the film will cross the 800 million threshold. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was able to make 94 million from China and about 30 million from Japan. If Spider-Man: Homecoming matched that exactly the film will end up with about 784 million worldwide, or just a little shy of 800 million. However, we won't really know how this film will deliver until it actually does. Iron Man has had particular success in China, could his role in the film result in heightened numbers? What about the stronger reviews for this film in-comparison to The Amazing Spider-Man 2? Either that, or it could all backfire. Who knows? Either way, Homecoming is still a success.
8/14/17 Update: Spider-Man: Homecoming has officially crossed the 700 million mark, ahead of its release in Japan or China.
9/11/17 Update: Spider-Man: Homecoming debuted in China, opening to about 70 million. If the film has the same multiplier as The Amazing Spider-Man 2, it will finish with about 900 million worldwide, ending up as the largest worldwide total for the series, although, not if adjusted for inflation. The film's a massive success either way.
War for the Planet of the Apes
Result: Success
Budget: 150 million
Box Office: < 481 million
Notes: This film earned excellent reviews from critics and had a lot of goodwill from Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (a film I loved, by the way), but it opened significantly less than Dawn did on a domestic level, not only that, but it also had deflated enthusiasm on the overseas market. The film is performing in a way that's more comparable to Rise of the Planet of the Apes, but, unfortunately, that film cost 50 million less than this one. The film is looking like it's poised to make about 150 million on a domestic level, which would be the lowest of the new series. Overseas, Dawn was able to make half a billion, but, like I said, War is performing less aggressively in its numbers. I don't think this is cause for alarm, but I do think that we'll see a sizable decline when this film is compared with Dawn. I am hoping that it will at least have enough oomph to reach 500 million worldwide. I'll keep this updated.
Update 7/25/17: - War for the Planet of the Apes dropped 62% from its opening weekend (Dawn dropped 50% after its first weekend) after already debuting considerable behind what its predecessor opened to. The idea of the film having the strength to make it to 150 million domestically, now seems unlikely, with shooting toward 140 million being a much safer bet. The overseas totals thus far also aren't anything to be ecstatic about.
Update 7/31/17: On a personal note, I watched War for the Planet of the Apes a couple of days ago and I thought it was fantastic. Unfortunately, from a financial standpoint, the film has failed to really take off. The film is on-pace to fall short of 150 million domestically and more than 50 million short of what the last Planet of the Apes did, but, also, overseas numbers aren't doing very much heavy lifting. I still haven't decided a "result," just yet, because the film still has some territories left, including China, which made 100 million for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Considering that China receives 75% of that, however, it doesn't look like that will be enough to save it.
Update 8/14/17: - War for the Planet of the Apes is winding down, and it looks as though it will indeed fall short of the 150 million mark domestically, the film still has debuted in China, which could be enough to set it over the 400 million mark, but even still, there is no doubt that this is a disappointment, best case scenario having it fall at least 300 million short of what the last film did.
Update 9/25/17: - The film has fared better overseas than I anticipated. Still, there is no doubt the film was a large decline from Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and is landing about where Rise of the Planet of the Apes landed, with a lot more spent on it. All the same, the film has landed somewhere where I think synergy and home sales can make it a success.
Girls Trip
Result: Big Success
Budget: 19 million
Box Office: < 134.6 million
Notes: Girls Trip came in second place with over 31 million, making for a much combatant adversary to Dunkirk than I would have other-wise expected. I didn't know much about this film. What I did know is that it was a women-centered film with a predominantly black cast. Two very under-served markets that will show up in droves if you provide them something they think is worth their time. The film is receiving very positively reviews, especially for its genre, and, with its production budget of 19 million, this is a success for Universal.
8/7/17: Girls Trip has had terrific holds over the last few weeks and is pacing on-par with the Bridesmaid film on a domestic level. (A film that made over 150 million domestically) This is a terrific success for those involved.
Dunkirk
Result: Success
Budget: 114 million
Box Office: < 518 million
Notes: Christopher Nolan's latest film Dunkirk stormed theaters, grossing 50 million on a domestic level, and already surpassing 100 million worldwide. The film opened in line with Nolan's last film Interstellar, which came close to 190 million domestically and over 650 million worldwide. The fact that Dunkirk is pacing a little bit ahead of Interstellar and is also receiving much stronger reviews suggests that the film might be able to cross 200 million domestically before the smoke settles. It's too soon to know for certain where Dunkirk will fall in-terms of worldwide totals, but I don't suspect that it will have too much trouble churning a profit. (Though, I speculate the film won't have as broad of an appeal as Interstellar did. I am thinking it will fall somewhere over 400 million worldwide.) If the film is able to stay relevant long enough, it could also be in contention for the Oscars, which would optimize profits.
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Result: Flop
Budget: 177-210 million
Box Office: < 219.5 million
Notes: In fifth place, we have Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which opened to only a little over 17 million domestically (coincidentally, that's almost exactly what The Fifth Element started with), with its worldwide debuts happening at a later date. This film was never expected to be a domestic juggernaut by any definitions of the phrase, but I am still disappointed with these returns. The film has a budget that has been speculated to be as little as 177 million and as high as 210 million, making for a particularly expensive film. (Although, the film apparently received tax credits from France, Fundamental Films invested 50 million into the project, and apparently, Luc Besson made a lot of money out of pocket for this film) The idea is that France will be ever-so kind as to do all the heavy-lifting, but we won't have any confirmation on its willingness to do that until next week. In other words, it isn't looking great for Valerian, but its main money-maker hasn't had its say yet.
8/7/17 Update: France has officially had its say and judging from the current numbers, it seems very much like Valerian has been a substantial box-office misfire. It's said that this film needed 350-400 million to break-even and justify a sequel, however, current numbers are making it seem doubtful that Valerian will come close to even half that number.
Atomic Blonde
Result: Modest Success
Budget: 30 million
Box Office: < 95.7 million
Notes: Director David Leitch is known particularly for his work on John Wick (a film in-which he had some participation in. Although, didn't receive a directing credit for.) and this film, starring Charlize Theron, definitely feels like a blood-relative to that film. Receiving positive reviews, Atomic Blonde opened ahead of the modestly successful John Wick film and all signs suggests that it will be a modestly successful film in the same vein. Let's remember that John Wick wasn't a terrific success on a theatrical level, and it wasn't until its release in the home market that more success helped justify a sequel. This film has about the same production budget as that film, however, and thus, all signs suggest this film will improve on that first film's profits.
8/14/17: At 61 million worldwide, Atomic Blonde hasn't yet set the world ablaze or broken even. I am hoping that overseas box-office will help carry a little more weight, but thus far, it remains to be seen if it actually will.
The Emoji Movie
Result: Success
Budget: 50 million
Box Office: < 193.1 million
Notes: The Emoji Movie is a film I think many actually wanted to see fail. After all, the film was met with immediate backlash when the trailers hit, and then, scathing criticisms upon arrival in theaters. The film's prospects definitely aren't as appetizing as other animated fare, but calling it a flop at this time would be a stretch. The film has a conservative budget and, even with strong drops, will likely be able to hit 60-70 million on a domestic level. This will cover a lot of the damages from its production budget, but it still has its marketing budget to think about. Although, it isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, Surf's Up (another film from Sony) was only able to make about 58 million domestically, but made 90 million from overseas territories. The worldwide box-office has changed a lot since then, and almost entirely in The Emoji Movie's favor. This film won't be a very profitable film for Sony, but it looks like it could break even a while after it releases in the home market.
8/14/17: Like I said, Emoji Movie hasn't really over-performed and hasn't done anything worth celebrating over for Sony, but it hasn't really been a flop either. I predicted that the film would end up somewhere between 60-70 million, and, at its current trajectory, it looks like it will exceed that on a domestic level. The film hasn't taken off overseas yet, but it also hasn't debuted in all of its markets.
Last edited by McConnaughay; 10-02-17 at 11:35 AM.
