Donald Trump for President?

We're way ahead of you over here, TONGO.

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5-time MoFo Award winner.

Bravo UK!!!

Trump continues to claim that he's beating Hillary in "all of" (or, sometimes, "most of") the polls. Not even close to true:

Is every state "winner takes all" or proportional in a general election?

Winner take all. Win a state, even by a single vote, and you win all of its electoral votes.

There is, if I recall correctly, one exception in Nebraska, where an individual district awards a single electoral vote to whoever happens to win it.

Usually only the witty folks could make jokes about famous people, but now with the arrival of Trump anyone can create a successful diss. Unintentionally, he's given equality to everyone.

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I'd love to see some state by state polls between the republican and the democratic nominee(s) then, but I guess they'll only start doing that when the primaries are actually over. For instance, it would be interesting to see how Trump does against Hillary in New York (as he claims he could beat her there) and of course in some of the swing states (like Florida, where he seems to be very popular).

I still think it's inconceivable that he would actually win a general election, but with the electoral American system, if he wins the right states, he might still have a shot, despite his overall lack of popularity.

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Some Republican controlled purple states were talking about changing the rules, but apparently they didn't go anywhere.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...sidential.html


There has been a New York poll and he loses to her badly in it.


Now you're right. State polls are more important than national polls. Romney four years ago was ahead of Obama in the national polls, but the state polls were showing a different story. But the problem Republicans have is the demographics put them at a disadvantage from the get go. Democrats start with more fixed votes than Republicans. Trump has the potential to pick up more purple states because of his populist platform, but his negatives as a candidate is causing problems for him.


If the convention is brokered, who do Republicans have to counter Trump? Cruz? Yeah, pick him, and we'll see if all those complaints that the real reason they keep losing is because they nominate RINOS have any validity. My prediction is he will hold on to all the states Romney won with no pickups, but will do worse in the popular vote. Kasich? The polls do show at this point for what they're worth he could beat her, but will they choose him? I doubt it. His problem is he is dull as dishwater, but that might not be a problem in the general election. If they go completely outside the candidates that are left or were in it, there is Paul Ryan, who is very sharp, a smooth speaker, and far better as a go-to-consensus candidate than Marco Rubio. But he is the guy with the rep for wanting to decimate Social Security and Medicare and I don't think independent leaning Republicans are as gung ho to do that as the party's establishment is. He has also been branded as another RINO for actually trying to get things done.

The reason to pick Cruz is not that he'll likely win (though I'm pretty sure he'll run a way smarter, better race than Clinton, who's a pretty crappy campaigner). It's that a Cruz loss probably doesn't ripple throughout the next ten elections the way a Trump loss does.

It's not about winning the election any more, it's about containing the damage.

Related: here's a good analysis of why Trump probably has a very hard ceiling in the general.

Better US President Donald's:

Donald Driver
Donald Duck
Ronald McDonald
Old McDonald

I dunno, Old McDonald's position on farm subsidies is worrying.

Well, trump is a political quack huh.

Trump could've been a leading contender for the presidential race, if he didn't say such disgusting ideas as banning all Muslims.

He's shot himself in the foot more times than I can think of. How can anyone come so far and blow it so badly? And if he had taken a different approach he might have won. He won't win now.

I don't think I'm going to vote at all

Seriously, I don't think he ever took it seriously. To him this is all a game. It's like an episode of his show. And if he becomes President, he still probably won't take it seriously - it will just be another triumph for him (like the erection of another Trump Tower), another ego trip.

It will be much like the old SNL skit about Reagan - where they portrayed Reagan as so mentally out of it that he thought the whole President thing was a movie that he was rehearsing, and his handlers would hand him lines & speeches to read (but as far as he knew, it was just another role that would help resurrect his acting career).

My feeling is if you're going brokered. you might as well go with the best guy the party has and that's Paul Ryan. He could beat Hillary, not a slam dunk, but his chances are better than Cruz. You say Trump is a crappy campaigner, but he's in front place. I can't figure it out, but that's how it is.

I'd vastly prefer Ryan, to be sure. But any party angry enough to let Trump come even close to happening is one that probably wouldn't respond well to having someone like that foisted on them at the last second.

The argument for Cruz isn't what he is, but what he isn't: he probably isn't someone who's going to completely blow-up the party, the way Trump could, but he's also not a non-candidate with no delegates being forced on voters, the way Ryan would be. With Cruz you probably lose, but not for sure, and if you do the damage is probably contained.

I didn't say Trump is a crappy campaigner, I said Clinton was (which is one reason I'm loathe to write-off Cruz's chances). But I don't think winning a highly fragmented primary automatically makes you a good campaigner, anyway. It's a lot easier to get 30-35% if you don't really care about getting much more and don't think beyond the primaries. Trump supporters like to think he whooped guys like Jeb, but that's because he didn't care what general election bridges he burned, and Jeb did.

Ha, I don't remember that one. But I remember a SNL skit where Reagan was being grilled by reporters and was dense as a cucumber...BUT...when he was alone in the Oval Office he was a master mind, speaking different languages to foreign heads of state on the phone, barking out orders, totally on the ball.

Sadly, I don't think that would be true of Trump. This is the first election where I feel I have no one I can vote for.

If Cruz gets the nomination, I wonder how Trump can vote for him (Trump gave his word that he'd vote for the Republican nominee whoever that ends up being during a debate) now that Trump has repeatedly called Cruz a liar, accused Cruz of attacking his wife and made threats toward Cruz's wife?

Jeb sucked. He was a walking disaster even before Trump went at him. Early on when he was still high in the polls, he was constantly backing away from comments he made a day or two earlier, then didn't wake up in the debates until it was too late. It may have been because he was rusty, but it cost him.


http://www.mercurynews.com/politics-...fornia-primary


It's just one poll, and the primary is months away, but, uh, not good news for Cruz.