This Whole Bird Flu Thing
 

Is anyone else keeping an eye on the developments with this?
I have a friend who is convinced we all need to be prepared for martial law lock-down, based on her reading of the CDC website predictions about "the coming epidemic". Someone on myspace told me he's investing in BCRX because the bird flu thing "is going to be big". But I'm not seeing much in the press about it at all...

A few excerpts:
How serious is the current pandemic risk?

The risk of pandemic influenza is serious. With the H5N1 virus now firmly entrenched in large parts of Asia, the risk that more human cases will occur will persist. Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmissibility in humans, and thus develop into a pandemic strain. The recent spread of the virus to poultry and wild birds in new areas further broadens opportunities for human cases to occur. While neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted, the probability that a pandemic will occur has increased.

Is the world adequately prepared?

No. Despite an advance warning that has lasted almost two years, the world is ill-prepared to defend itself during a pandemic. WHO has urged all countries to develop preparedness plans, but only around 40 have done so. WHO has further urged countries with adequate resources to stockpile antiviral drugs nationally for use at the start of a pandemic. Around 30 countries are purchasing large quantities of these drugs, but the manufacturer has no capacity to fill these orders immediately. On present trends, most developing countries will have no access to vaccines and antiviral drugs throughout the duration of a pandemic.

Should we be crapping ourselves yet?

Not until this happens:

http://www.flashasylum.com/db/files/...ob/bigbird.jpg

I'm not sure of the total deaths yet, but my guess is less than 200? A relatively low number given the spread of the virus in birds, so I think we have a good deal of time until the virus evolves to become very easily and efficently transmitted between humans. That crucial step towards pandemic isn't locked in at some point in time, so it could be sooner rather than later, but for some reason I have a gut feeling we're going to dodge the bullet this time.

Now that I've said that, I'd put good money on me getting it first and having my guts melt away.

I think all countries that can should be stocking up on antivirals, but I think all should be doing that anyway. Then again, I don't know if there is an expiration date there - in which case when to start stocking up becomes a crucial decision.

Oh my god, bird flu on Sesame Street. Perhaps it should be a sequel to the Sesame Street movie Follow That Bird -- called Get Away From That Bird!

I won't get it 'cos I'm a bloke.....

I find the bird flu hysteria extraordinary. As OG- said, globally a couple of hundred have died from it so far. Sure, it's certainly a horrible thing if you get it. But put in perspective and compared to AIDS, which has killed 20 million people allready, and HIV, which 40 million people are infected with (95% in the 3rd World), I really think things are starting to get out of hand.

The Spanish flu is probably to blame for some of the panic. The pandemic that killed something in between of 25 and 40 million people 1918-1919 was a kind of bird flu and that has probably helped to stir things up. The Spanish flu is at least what media has used here to make us understand the seriousness of the situation.

I'm not a fan of mass hysteria, despite the tone of my first post. But I will point out that there was a time when AIDS had killed under 200 people. And what we've learned from how that virus mutates is part of why the CDC and WHO are having kittens over the bird flu.

As posted on Slashdot:
That last little statistic is somewhat daunting and yet I remain unafraid. Even though I do agree that a pademic is coming - it is a simple game of inevitability and the longer we don't have one the more likely we are to have one - I don't even really care that much because it seems so distant and remote.

It reminds me of this, possibly my favorite statistic to quote:
It is a numbers thing that is constantly stacking against us and while I have great faith in numbers, I'm simply numb to devoting any thought to it.

But whether it be avian flu, a meteor or a super volcano, BRING IT ONNN!!!

Yes, and now it's killing tens of millions of people. When you listen to the radio and watch tv you get the impression that we're all going to die from bird flu, a disease which we have vaccine against and that has actually been around in different shapes for almost a century. At the same time people, and mostly africans, are dying like flies from AIDS because the medicines that slows the infection down is not reaching those who need it, even though it could if some people tried a little harder.

H1N1, the Spanish Flu is still around to some extent and has been since 1919. There have been several mutations of the virus since then: H2N2, H3N2, H7N2, H7N3, H7N7, H9N2. The one we "have now" is called H5N1 and I'm reading now that in oktober 2005 there was about 100 human cases reported all over the world (of which I understand about half have led to death). Don't know if this is correct.

I'm not saying that it's not important or that it shouldn't be taken seriously. On the contrary, I think it's great that it is being taken seriously. But it angers me that it gets so much attention while the 3rd world plague that AIDS is gets so considerably little attention in the media. It has no news value and it's not threatening enough to us.

...I bet I'll be the first swedish bird flu case now just because of this post...

Hey, OG-! What's Slashdot?

Yeah, like pretty much everyone else has said: The whole Bird Flu thing has been blown way out of proportion.

But if you folks really want something to worry about, take the Ebola virus. It pops up in South African villages every once in a while and kills about 90% of those infected with it. The virus induces massive hemorraging and you basically will bleed out of every opening on your body, until you die. Not a pretty way to go. Anybody can get it and we have no way of stopping it. The US has spent epics amounts of cash quaranting these villages in Africa and it is getting a whole helluva lot harder to travel in or out of the continent. But because we now live in the Age of Transportation, chances are the disease could spread over the entire planet fairly quickly. And because we have absolutely no cure, scientists say it could be like the second coming of the plague. Conceivably wiping out 2/3 of the population.

So don't worry about the Bird Flu.

Ah, a potential convert to the glory that is Slashdot.org. The title says it all, "News for nerds, stuff that matters." It is a fantastic source for the lowdown on a lot of news, almost all nerd related in some capacity. I check it many, many times a day.

There actually used to be something known as the Slashdot effect, which has been gradually lost these days as servers are capable of supporting more users with more easy. But back in the day, if a site that wasn't an already very popular domain (such as www.cnet.com or such) got 'slashdotted', the amount of users that would pour to it from the slashdot post would be enough to completely crash the website. It still happens these days, but isn't as common. It does bring a smile to my face when they link to someone's personal project and by the time I get to it the site just says "I'VE BEEN SLASHDOTTED!!! Mirror sites will be up soon!"

Though these days many sites have popped up that offer the same sort of news stories (some faster, some slower) as /. none will ever topple the original. It is a mecca for nerds and holds a lot of clout in the nerd community.

Birds can't get the flu; that's crazy!

http://www.clutterofechoes.com/Brian...irdisaliar.jpg

aaaaaaaaaahahahahaha

I can't believe that not only you thought of that, but were able to find a screen capture to go with it.

Even if it does kill millions the human race will survive.
Humans don't have any natural predators to keep the population down, so maybe it's a good thing.
Either way no point worrying, could get hit by a bus tommorow.

Tea Barking is Mr. Happy Times Fun Guy.

apparantly Sauerkraut (forgive my spelling) has properties that kill the bird flue virus according to the papers today......

Yeah, but have ever tried feeding a chicken sauerkraut?

---

There's not much we can do about the bird flu thing either way - 'cept bitch if it breaks out in earnest and our governments aren't prepared.

This business with the manufacturers of the Tamiflu vaccine clinging to their patent rights, despite their inability to produce enough to go around, raises an interesting question though. At what point should global need override a company's profit margin?

As for AIDs and the developing world being ignored - hey, maybe we can have that debate when someone reviews The Constant Gardener? ;) [I've heard some arguments about its accuracy already].

I've heard something (in passing.. don't ask me for a link) about star anise being a natural preventative for bird flu. There's anise in saurkraut. Coincidence?


Maybe.


...yeaahhhh... I don't know that that will be all that satisfying for the people who die or lose family. The mortality rate so far is 50%. As I understand it though, being prepared to live on what's in your apartment is part of the prep being recommended by the Center for Disease Control.

That is an interesting question. It seems to me that medicine is entirely too commercialised to begin with, and in a time of emergency (and the predictions about this suggest it will be dire), we need to put lives first and profiteering way down the line.


As for the "why worry, there's nothing you can do" thing, I have a little trouble with that. Like Gg pointed out, the government is willing to put people's health second to the profits of drug corps. You're willing to put your fate (and your parents' and grandparents' and childrens' fate) into the hands of people who have already demonstrated that they're seeing you as a statistic... and not even look into things you can do to prepare?

Why thankyou mr yoda ;)

I feel the same as Tea Barking it isn't here yet, may never come, worrying is not going to stop it, I will deal with it the best i can when and if it arrives http://bestsmileys.com/sneezing/1.gif

I saw it last week, I think it was. About the accuracy I don't have any arguments really... But I'm no expert. I thought it was a brilliant and urgent story, well acted (Fiennes is more and more becoming a favourite of mine) but a bit ruined by annoying editing. Have faith in the story, Meirelles!