We're a mere 6 weeks from the end of the year, with a number of awards bodies -- Indie Spirits, National Board of Review, Gotham Awards, then Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics' Choice -- announcing their nominees or winners soon and practically every film in contention except for The Post and Phantom Thread now seen by critics, prognosticators, and/or festival audiences. So it seems time for awards junkies (who, like me, typically think the Academy's taste is middlebrow to the point of mockery, but can't help watching anyway) to talk Oscars.
It's a tough year without a clear front runner I think, sometimes something like The Artist or Slumdog Millionaire is an obvious juggernaut from Summer on (and there is still a chance that could be Dunkirk) and sometimes it's tough to parse with a lot of splits like Spotlight/The Revenant/The Big Short in 2015 where even the night of the ceremony most couldn't predict a winner. But the films and performances seriously vying for awards have revealed themselves and a number of films, worthy and not, that are smaller or more difficult than the Academy typically acknowledges seem to have a serious chance this year. Here's my Oscar predictions for the main 8 categories as of this week. I've broken them into surest bets, strong contenders, and long shots for most categories and ranked them by likelihood. Note your own predictions, or any particular film or performance you think I left out or am crazy for thinking has a shot below. As the Oscar race continues, we can update and also discuss the snubs, politics, eventual winners, what should have won, etc. BEST PICTURE Surest bets Dunkirk The Shape of Water Darkest Hour Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Post Strong contenders Lady Bird Call Me By Your Name The Florida Project Mudbound (right now I'd say these first 9 are our likely nominees) Get Out Serious possibilities Phantom Thread I, Tonya The Big Sick Molly's Game The Greatest Showman Long shots The Disaster Artist Wonder Wonder Woman Blade Runner: 2049 Downsizing BEST DIRECTOR Surest bets Christopher Nolan -Dunkirk Guillermo Del Toro -The Shape of Water Steven Spielberg -The Post Luca Guadagnino -Call Me By Your Name Joe Wright -Darkest Hour Strong contenders Martin McDonagh -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Greta Gerwig -Lady Bird Dee Rees -Mudbound Paul Thomas Anderson -Phantom Thread Jordan Peele -Get Out Long shots Sean Baker -The Florida Project Patty Jenkins -Wonder Woman Michael Gracey -The Greatest Showman Denis Villeneuve -Blade Runner 2049 James Franco -The Disaster Artist BEST ACTOR Surest bets Gary Oldman -Darkest Hour Daniel Day-Lewis -Phantom Thread James Franco -The Disaster Artist Tom Hanks -The Post Timothee Chalamet -Call Me By Your Name Strong contenders Jake Gyllenhaal -Stronger Andrew Garfield -Breathe Hugh Jackman -The Greatest Showman Christian Bale -Hostiles Daniel Kaluuya -Get Out Long shots Robert Pattinson -Good Time Harry Dean Stanton -Lucky Denzel Washington -Roman J Israel, Esq. Matt Damon -Downsizing Steve Carrell -Last Flag Flying or Battle of the Sexes BEST ACTRESS Surest bets Frances McDormand -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Sally Hawkins -The Shape of Water Margot Robbie -I, Tonya Meryl Streep -The Post Saoirse Ronan -Lady Bird Strong contenders Jessica Chastain -Molly's Game Kate Winslet -Wonder Wheel Judi Dench -Victoria & Abdul Emma Stone -Battle of the Sexes Annette Bening -Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool Long shots Brooklyn Prince -The Florida Project Vicky Krieps -Phantom Thread Carey Mulligan -Mudbound Lois Smith -Marjorie Prime Jennifer Lawrence -mother! BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Surest bets Willem Dafoe -The Florida Project Sam Rockwell -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Armie Hammer -Call Me By Your Name Richard Jenkins -The Shape of Water Michael Stuhlbarg -Call Me By Your Name Strong contenders Michael Shannon -The Shape of Water Ben Mendehlson -Darkest Hour Woody Harrelson -Three Billboards Outisde Ebbing, Missouri Ray Romano -The Big Sick Jason Mitchell -Mudbound Long shots Mark Rylance -Dunkirk Dustin Hoffman -The Meyerowitz Stories Bryan Cranston -Last Flag Flying Idris Elba -Molly's Game Jacob Tremblay -Wonder BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Surest bets Alison Janney -I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf -Lady Bird Octavia Spencer -The Shape of Water Holly Hunter -The Big Sick Kristin Scott Thomas -Darkest Hour Strong contenders Mary J Blige -Mudbound Hong Chau -Downsizing Melissa Leo -Novitiate Lesley Manville -Phantom Thread Carrie Coon - The Post Long shots Tatiana Maslany -Stronger Claire Foy -Breathe Bria Vinaite -The Florida Project Catherine Keener -Get Out Michelle Williams -All the Money in the World BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Surest bets Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Shape of Water Darkest Hour The Post Get Out Strong contenders Lady Bird Dunkirk The Florida Project The Big Sick The Meyerowitz Stories Long shots Phantom Thread The Greatest Showman Downsizing Coco Wind River BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Surest bets Call Me By Your Name Mudbound Molly's Game The Disaster Artist I, Tonya Strong contenders Breathe Battle of the Sexes Blade Runner 2049 First They Killed My Father Wonderstruck Long shots All the Money in the World Wonder Wonder Woman Last Flag Flying Star Wars: The Last Jedi As with American Sniper and Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood's 15:17 to Paris could be a last minute addition that gets a lot of play (or it could be more like J Edgar, Gran Torino, Jersey Boys, Sully, etc. and get next to nothing). I'm counting it out for now while it's an unknown. |
Good post. Can see Call Me By Your Name getting a Best Picture nom while winning Best Foreign Film like Amour did a few years ago. The Post and Darkest Hour both look pretty bad, hope i'm wrong about them. Wonder if DDL wins again.
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Re: 2018 Academy Awards
I don't think CMBYN is eligible for Best Foreign Language Film because while it's a co-production of France, Italy, Brazil, and the US and is set in Italy, it's 95% in English and I believe a movie has to be primarily in another language to compete for that prize.
Haven't seen The Post and heard good things about the script, but Darkest Hour was pretty bad I thought. Blandly respectable Oscar bait of the Iron Lady, Imitation Game variety. Gary Oldman has an excellent shot at winning for it anyway though because he ticks all the boxes AMPAS voters love: physical transformation, playing a famous historical figure, scenes with rousing speeches and private contemplation that make for great Oscar clips, etc. and he's rightfully seen as overdue. I do think his only real competition is DDL who you can never count out and who is at least suggesting will never act again. My money is on Oldman right now but in the event they view it as their last opportunity to award arguably the world's best working actor, he could make history and become the first actor to win it 4 times (he's already the only actor to have won it 3 times and Katherine Hepburn is the only performer with 4 Oscars). |
Re: 2018 Academy Awards
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Re: 2018 Academy Awards
Wasn't aware it was mainly in English.
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Originally Posted by mark f (Post 1825825)
Haneke's film was submitted, heard bad things about that by fans of Haneke. |
Originally Posted by mark f (Post 1825825)
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Re: 2018 Academy Awards
Originally Posted by Camo (Post 1825828)
Haneke's film was submitted, heard bad things about that by fans of Haneke.
She thought Loveless was better but was depressed throughout. |
Re: 2018 Academy Awards
'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri' is going to win Best Picture.
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Re: 2018 Academy Awards
^
Dying to see it but I’m willing to bet Dunkirk takes it. |
Originally Posted by Saunch (Post 1825963)
Dying to see it but I’m willing to bet Dunkirk takes it.
On the other hand, the former has a lot going for it: 1. Had a screening at both Venice and Telluride, and is being released before December. 2. It won the TIFF Audience Award 3. It's a timely film with relevant themes. 4. It seems like the film that'll garner the most 2 and 3 votes. 5. Considering the lineup of the cast--and the praise they've been getting, It seems very likely the film will win the SAG Ensemble. 6. It seems destined to win Original Screenplay. (With either that, or Adapted; is probably the biggest precursor for what'll win Best Picture.) And If It's not 3BB, It'll be this... https://fanart.tv/detailpreview/fana...6f888d8b46.jpg |
The following article on 'ThePlaylist' perfectly captures my view on this matter...
"Is ‘Three Billboards’ Your Stealth Best Picture Frontrunner?" https://theplaylist.net/three-billbo...down-20171018/ https://theplaylist.net/wp-content/u...s-1200x520.jpg |
Re: 2018 Academy Awards
Also, count on the film not only winning Original Screenplay; but Supporting Actor for Sam Rockwell.
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Re: 2018 Academy Awards
cute
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Re: 2018 Academy Awards
I've seen 2 contenders for the best picture. Can't wait to see Dunkirk and Shape of Water and will certainly try to see The Post.
Is Get Out worth it? |
Re: 2018 Academy Awards
Get Out is great. Good fun. Best Picture though? Nah. That academy likes to pander but they don’t roll all the way.
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Originally Posted by Saunch (Post 1833458)
Get Out is great. Good fun. Best Picture though? Nah. That academy likes to pander but they don’t roll all the way.
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Originally Posted by rauldc14 (Post 1833454)
I've seen 2 contenders for the best picture. Can't wait to see Dunkirk and Shape of Water and will certainly try to see The Post.
Is Get Out worth it? Although I do (from time to time) go on about how "Film X" should've been rewarded (Ala; "THIS SHOULD'VE WON!") To me, It's not about what you think should win; It's about does win, as you predict which film will succeed. That's what makes 'Awards Season' so fun to me. :D So, If you're looking to see a film that could end up winning the big one (or you're just looking to "predict"), then I'd suggest to go with either of these 3 for Best Picture: https://fanart.tv/detailpreview/fana...32dee6f6e2.png https://fanart.tv/detailpreview/fana...470fe9f070.png https://fanart.tv/detailpreview/fana...56f55bd32a.png Trust me. |
In a year where the race is wide open don't count out Phantom Thread (Anderson) and 15:17 to Paris(Eastwood) those are the movies that are going to get the last look
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