Biggest movie of the year?
So, what do you guys think will be the biggest movie this year? Will "Shrek" hold on? Will LOTR pass it up? Harry Potter? :) I wrote a quick piece on this:
http://www.movieforums.com/boxoffice/index.html?id=5 Reproduced here:
This is gonna be a battle for the ages, ladies and gentlemen. Shrek's robut $266 million domestic (U.S.) gross is quite formidable, and even surpasses last year's biggest hit, "Dr. Suess' How the Grinch Stole Christmas," which finished with around $6 million less.
However, "Shrek" will be put to the ultimate test before the year is out, with "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" coming out on November 16th, and "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" making it's debut on December 19th. Both movies are the first in what both promise will be a series of movies, and as such, they each carry more excitement with them than most of their later installments are likely to. So, can Harry/Tolkien topple the green ogre? Some analysts are predicting a massive toll of anywhere from $300-500 million for "Potter" -- however, these are likely exaggerations. "LOTR" is guaranteed roughly $150 million, but to truly break through and make the $250-300 million necessary to match the hype that it's received, the movie will need to heavily appeal to non-Tolkien fans. My personal predictions: "Harry Potter" narrowly surpasses "Shrek," but ends up a bit under $300 million domestically. "LOTR," I believe, will finish with something near $250 million, giving it either a third/second place finish, in a year filled with blockbusters. |
Shrek did remarkably well, but LOTR, and Potter, might be the best contenders to take on Shrek.
Shrek did so well, because it was a hilarious family comedy. Not too many of those exist, and so when a good one comes along it gets a good reputation. "Lord of the Rings" will probably get pretty close, and will probably pass "Shrek" to be the biggest movie. Not to mention what all three "Ring" movies will bring it, that's a combined total, and it will probably be one of the most grossing trilogies of movie history. "Harry Potter" is a well-known book character read by millions of children. Their clothes bear the signia of Hogwart's, and is not a stranger to any person under the age of 15, not to mention a few over the age of 15. With "Potter" being another well-known storyline it should rank right up there with LOTR. |
Yeah, would you believe that a poll on LeesMovieInfo.com has something like 30% of all voters (the highest of any of the options) predicting that Potter will pull in roughly $80 million in it's opening weekend. Pshaw! I highly doubt it.
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It'll probably Shrek Harry Potter LOTR. I think maybe all the little kids will see Harry Potter instead of LOTR taking out some of the audience.
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Wow, you think "Shrek" will hold up under those two?
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Harry Potter. Hands down. The movie is going to be huge! Think of all the media attention it's already gotten. The toys, the games, of course the books, there was even a scene shown on primetime television from the actual movie. When has that EVER been done before?
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Oops, I wasn't thinking there; I think Shrek will come third Potter first LOTR second.
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Anybody who's worked in an institution that makes money off of Harry Potter knows that it will gross the most money this year. I worked retail when the last book came out and every single person left with that book. I swear, everyone. That and a copy of the Nelly CD.
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Some wizardry and some wrap...LOL...
Potter will do very well I predict, I don't think it will surpass LOTR though. I think that Potter will come in second, LOTR, first. |
I don't think LOTR has enough in it...it's just too specializied. Harry Potter is a modern pop-culture entity that lots of non-Potter fans will probably see. A lot of people, I'd bet, read the books (or the first book, or just the first two, etc.) simply to see what all the fuss was about. So, even more will see the movie to catch up to the fad...seeing as how watching a movie is much easier than reading a book. The movie presents an easy, 150-minute solution to anyone who wants to find out what's so great about Harry Potter. :) For that reason, partially, and for the specialized, usually intellectual nature of LOTR, I think Potter will take first this year.
However, LOTR will appeal to non-Tolkienphiles enough to rake in over $200 million domestically, IMO. |
Yeah I guess so. It's kinda funny how three books made into movies will take in the most this year.
Ok, I retract what I said earlier and I will say that Potter cleans house with oh..at least $250 million. LOTR, in at a close second with around $230 million. |
It's obvious that Harry Potter is going to f--k everyone up. I predict $300 million domestically, and a billion worldwide. That's right, a billion. I think LOTR will bomb, like Final Fantasy did. (Probably not as severely though)
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Originally posted by Steve
It's obvious that Harry Potter is going to f--k everyone up. I predict $300 million domestically, and a billion worldwide. That's right, a billion. I think LOTR will bomb, like Final Fantasy did. (Probably not as severely though) |
Lord of the Rings won't make as much as Harry Potter but it will be a success, if it's not, I'll eat my hat.
The differences between LOTR and Final Fantasy should settle any doubts. One has a proven director at its helm; the other had a video game creator. One has a solid, recognisable cast of actors; the other didn't have humans in the cast, though they vaguely looked it. One has a wonderful advertising campaign, reminding us that its only the first step in a 3-movie adventure; the other's marketing campaign showed a scene from the movie that was dramatically unexciting, but visually wonderful. The only comparison between the two is a large fan base, but readers are more loyal cinema-goers than video game players. I predict at least $200m in the States for Lord of the Rings and more than that globally. But Harry Potter is going to be a phenomenon. Did you know that it made more in its preview week in the UK than any film did in its actual recognised release week? Potter is going to soar. Let's hope so. It's a wonderful movie. |
You're right, bigval. Add me to that list: I'll find a hat (any hat), and eat it, if LOTR is a bomb, as Steve suggests. I also think it'll pass $200 million domestically. Maybe $230-240 or so...probably good for third this year.
Steve: you're a lot of things. Among them is a knowledgable, intelligent fan of cinema...but if that's your prediction, then I don't think "Box Office Analyst" is going to be added to your list of virtues. :) No offense. |
You're dreaming if you think LOTR is going to make $100 million per week in order to get $200 million for the year. (It opens on December 19th). No matter how many of you Dungeons and Dragons nerds go see it, it's pretty close to mathmatically impossible that the flick will put up those kinds of numbers.
Can it make $200 million or more? Sure, but not in 2001. As for Harry Potter, it wouldn't surprise me to see it pass Shrek. There's a lot of hype and a lot of built-in audience. It should open huge, but the quality of the movie will determine whether it has legs. But, it obviously isn't easy to gross $267 million. And it took Shrek two months to get to that number. Harry Potter doesn't have that long to do it (since the end of the year is less than two months away). |
When I say "top grosser of the year," I mean a movie that was released in that year. Obviously it's not exactly fair to have a movie like LOTR not count as one of the highest in either year, because it's right around New Year's. That's the standard I use, anyway. No, I'm not so naive and so blinded by my excitement as to think it'll crack $200 in just 2 weeks. It'll crack $200 altogether...and since it's being released in 2001, I'm counting it against this year.
Anyway, I think Potter would have to try pretty hard to NOT gross over $267 million...but LOTR won't make it that high domestically. Speaking of legs, "Monsters, Inc." is gonna top $200...I think it'll finish up around $220 or so, right near "Rush Hour 2" for what will, at the time, amount to something like 3rd or 4th so far this year. |
In New Zealand LOTR will break all box office records as we sort of feel like it's our movie (New Zealand director, filmed in New Zealand).
But i don't know what kind of hype surrounds the movie worldwide. I do know the movie's website has recieved more than a billion hits (Lord of the Rings.net). Will it surpass Harry? It has a puncher's chance. Peace, |
Originally posted by Steve
I think LOTR will bomb, like Final Fantasy did. (Probably not as severely though) |
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