Early Awards Predictions
 

The award season is almost upon us, and I thought why not start predicting who and what will be nominated for the top awards (Golden Globes, Oscars, SAG's...etc). I will add more predictions as the award season gets nearer. Feel free to share your predictions and thoughts

PICTURE
1917
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Just Mercy
Joker
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Hustlers
The Peanut Butter Falcon
The Farewell
Ad Astra
The Lighthouse
Marriage Story
Doctor Sleep

ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy)
Ewan McGregor (Doctor Sleep)
Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse)
Bill Nighy (Sometimes Always Never)
Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story OR The Report)


ACTRESS
Scarlet Johansson (Marriage Story)
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Natalie Portman (Lucy in the Sky)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)
John Lithgow (Bombshell)
Wesley Snipes (Dolemite Is My Name)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Zazie Beetz (Joker)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon 2: The Hidden World

Cliff Booththth

I guess I need to get busy because I haven't seen a single film mentioned here.

Some of them haven't been released yet, aside from film festivals.

Oh, OK

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I must add Bill Hader in the Supporting Actor category for his performance in It Chapter 2.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Hustlers????? Doctor Sleep????

Am I taking crazy pills???

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

How do you know that half of these will be good if they haven’t been released?

I don't know about Doctor Sleep...but we're going to get some weird noms...

Awkafina (Farewell)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Antonio Bandareas (Pain and Glory)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is my Name)
Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)


And male supporting might be while it's going to be between Defoe and Pitt you might have Hanks, Hopkins, and Pacino as the other three noms

Tom Hanks
Al Pacino
Brad Pitt
Anthony Hopkins
Willem Defoe


My early predictions...

Irishman (Picture)
Scorsese (Director)
Phoenix (Actor)
Johansson (Actress)
Pitt (S. Actor)
Lopez (S. Actress)
Tarantino (O. Screenplay)
Waititti (A. Screenplay)

Festivals Venice just finished up and Toronto is going on right now.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

How do I know? Based on critical acclaim and the warm reception at festivals the past few weeks.

Believe it or not, Hustlers is getting raving reviews and J. Lo is getting serious Oscar buzz.

Doctor Sleep is just my prediction. The movie looks like Oscar bait.

Hanks and Lopez are supporting not leads BTW

So why you want to wait for TIFF is we've got two more big contenders..


Rian Johnson's Knives Out


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi-1NchUqMA


Which is 100% with 45 reviews in...I would not be shocked if Jamie Lee Curtis doesn't slip in with an Oscar nomination as the Academy passed her over during her glory years (Trading Places, Halloween, Fog, A Fish Called Wanda, Blue Steel, Road Games)




Bong Joon Hoo's Parasite


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEUXfv87Wpk


Bong might be the front runner for best director because as we know the academy hates giving the award to white dudes from America and if Johnson, Scorsese, and Tarantino are in the mix don't be shocked if we don't get a split.


Finally you've got Pain and Glory


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVGOsrb1H6E


Almodovar has never won for directing and if the Academy continues it's Latin Renaissance giving the GOAT his Oscar this year is very well possible.

MojoFilter maybe basing nominations on PC/SJ (which is a good barometer). If that's true, it sounds like Hustlers will qualify in spades. It will be a dream film for the MeToo cabal. I'd more likely watch a poorly done stoner film than watch a female empowerment flick..:D

Doctor Sleep is due out in November. Nothing wrong with the cast. If it ties in with The Shining, it might be worth a consideration. If it's not too scary, Doc may have to break his horror blacklist to sample it..;)

~Doc

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

is the avatar meant to represent having a cooked brain or what

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toront...s_Choice_Award


Jojo Rabbit won the audience award with Marriage Story and Parasite coming in 2nd and 3rd. So the inference here is that Taiki Waititi might end up the Bradley Cooper this year and register quite a few awards.


So my guess is on the nominees....

Best Picture

• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Heller)
• The Irishman (Scorsese)
• Jojo Rabbit (Waititi)
• Knives Out (Johnson)
• The Lighthouse (Eggers)
• Marriage Story (Baumbach)
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino)
• Parasite (Joon-hoo)

Director

• Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
• Baumbach (Marriage Story)
• Scorsese (Irishman)
• Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
• Watiti (Jojo Rabbit)

Best Actor

• Bandares (Pain and Glory)
• Deniro (Irishman)
• Driver (Marriage Story)
• Egerton (Rocketman)
• Phoenix (Joker)

Best Actress

• Awkwafina (Farewell)
• Ervino (Harriet)
• Johannson (Marriage Story)
• Ronan (Little Women)
• Zellweger (Judy)

S. Actor

• Brown (Waves)
• Hanks (It's a....)
• Pitt (Once Upon A Time..)
• Pacino (Irishman)
• Pesci (Irishman)

S. Actress

• Dern (Marriage Story)
• Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
• Lopez (Hustlers)
• Robbie (Once Upon a Time)
• Zhou (Farewell)

O. Screenplay

• Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
• Baumbach (Marriage Story)
• Bong-Joon (Parasite)
• Johnson (Knives Out)
• Tarantino (Once Upon a Time...)

A. Screenplay

• Gerwig/Polley (Little Women)
• Micah Fitzerman-Blue Harpster (Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
• Phillips (Joker)
• Watitit (Jojo Rabbit)
• Zallian (The Irishman)

Animated

• Abominable
• How to Train Your Dragon III
• Toy Story 4
• Ne Zha
• Weathering with You

@Siddon your predictions seem spot on.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I'd like to add Adam Sandler to the race for Best Actor in Uncut Gems. The buzz is on for the Happy Gilmore/Billy Madison star. If he is nominated, which seems highly likely at this point, I will be rooting for him.

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2019...ove-interview/

Sandler is in a tricky spot, if this was a weaker year for males he might have a shot but the male lead field is somewhat deeper than normal.

Robert Deniro - for the Irishman (that's a lock)
Joaquin Phoenix - for the Joker (that's a lock)
Adam Driver - for Marraige story (that's a lock and he's likely the front runner)

So you've got two open spots

You have two British elderly actors in the mix Jonathan Pryce and Ian McKellen which don't forget Christian Bale so that's the UK voting block and that's pretty powerful.

You've got early blockbuster performances from Taron Egerton and Leonardo Dicaprio

And then you've got the minority contingent with Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is my name), Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), and Kevin Harrison (Waves)

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

For the best Actress and Supporting Actress races, the movie Bombshell seems likely to nab nominations in both categories. You have Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie, and Charlize Theron playing Megyn Kelly.



John Lithgow plays Roger Ailes. I always believed him to be one of the most underrated actors of our time and that he deserved an Oscar, so a Best Supporting Actor nod for him and win would be great.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Whoever's film/ performance is the wokest will win is my prediction

Charlize is a lock, Margot might have trouble competing against herself for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.


Lithgow might have issues because it's a Goliath field in supporting with Hanks, Pitt, Pacino, and Pesci

This might make things quite unpredictable this year as Once Upon A Time In America and Joker are getting a good deal of praise but also quite a bit of "woke" criticism.

I can't stand this "woke" culture we live in today. I miss the days when movies were just "movies" and not platforms to push some political or social agenda (whether it be a conservative or a liberal agenda). Not to mention the days when it was okay to say or make fun of anything or anybody in movies and not have anybody getting offended by it. Which brings me to the 'cancel culture' which is flat-out ridiculous and absurd. The people behind the 'cancel culture' need to get their faces punched.

With regards to praise, I've said the same thing the last few years. Any movie that involves LGBTQ, woman power, or the plight of minority groups, especially jews, blacks, and Hispanics will be showered with the Academy's praise and awards. I'm hoping this year is different.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Sorry dude, but movies have been pushing agendas since at least Birth of a Nation (if not earlier), besides which maybe it's less a question of people suddenly "getting offended by everything" in recent years and more that they've always been offended and changes in social dynamics have led to there being more open criticism of the offensive that was either not voiced or ignored in previous decades.

Besides, if anything woke culture's approach to awards season tends to be much more critical of films that feature superficially acceptable subjects like POCs or the LGBTQ community. Green Book is nominally an anti-racism movie that won Best Picture but it was still criticised for resorting to cheap white-saviour clichés, to say nothing of how Bohemian Rhapsody took a bi icon and watered him down in some questionable ways in order to fit a generic musical biopic narrative.

"Films have always had agendas" isn't really a rebuttal to any of this, because "I don't want my films to ever have agendas" is pretty clearly a straw man. The contention, right or wrong, is that it's ramping up, and/or that artistic and critical quality are taking a backseat to those concerns. That critics are passing off ideological or moral disapproval as if it were artistic critique.

You (and many others) have rightly noted that it's vapid and naive to expect films to be mindless entertainment with no relationship to politics or real-world controversies. But most fail to note that the opposite extreme--demanding that the art function first as moral instruction for a particular worldview--is just as ridiculous. Art should not be primarily valued for how useful it is as cultural rhetoric.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I'm not sure Green Book helps your argument, either. The fact that even ostensibly ideologically "correct" films are subject to criticism is kind of the point, since that criticism is invariably "they didn't go far enough." The purity demanded on this front does not contradict the concerns here, it underscores them.

And it fits what I'm saying about judging films primarily by their rhetorical usefulness: it's subject to criticism simply because it's not especially confrontational about racism, even though the message is obviously a good one. For that reason alone it can be criticized as if it were explicitly retrograde. That's pretty ridiculous, because it's based in the presumption that the first function of art is propaganda.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Fair points. I just figure it's always worth questioning why someone would claim to "miss the days when movies were just movies" and also how much you can ever truly separate a film's sociopolitical rhetoric from its overall quality as a film (assuming you can or even should). It's not like a film that says and does all the "right" things automatically earns a 5/5 rating from me anyway or that I haven't liked my fair share of films that drew criticism of a similar nature. The difference being that I don't act like this is some kind of personal affront - if anything, I could use something like that to help me give further consideration to films rather than just acting like No It Is The Children Who Are Wrong.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

It is, of course, pretty significant that the No It Is the Children Meme is perpetuated and used by...the Children. Have you met children? They're wrong a lot.

But, I digress. I'll agree that movies were never "just movies." But like cultures almost always do (and more as time goes on, I think), there's been a pretty clear overreaction. I agree you can't and shouldn't entirely separate a film from its point of view or impact on the culture, but I do think its quality as film needs to always be the primary consideration, except perhaps in extreme circumstances. Green Book is a really, really good example of people losing sight of that and inadvertently revealing what they think art's function ought to be.

Anyway, it's too easy for this to turn into people shooting down dueling extremes ("movies shouldn't challenge us"/"movies must always be challenging us") that maybe nobody in this actual thread actually believes in. Clearly these ideas are out there, but I think there's a good chance the Internet dramatically exaggerates how widely held they are, in both directions. Seems like it's more of a general posture thing, IE: whether you're more forgiving of someone being clearly overzealous or even ridiculous because you like the general thrust of their worldview. That's trickier to parse out.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

In fairness, it is a line from a 25-year-old episode. Can't exactly fault it for resonating across the years (especially since it references an older authority figure who refuses to consider that he may be wrong about something, which has never really stopped being a thing).

But I digress. I think another part of the negative reaction to Green Book was that it wasn't considered a particularly high-quality film to begin with - you had a couple of solid lead performances, sure, but that's about it - and the undercooked approach to its supposedly Important subject matter was part and parcel of the negative reaction. If anything, it comes across as a prime example of the kind of film that the anti-woke types are liable to complain about.

Yeah, obviously it's an actual thing that happens in reality. But like every self-exculpatory meme it gets used increasingly thoughtlessly; you're now liable to see it in any tweet thread where anyone suggests any new idea is a bad one.

I think we can all agree, at minimum, that human understanding is a constant push-pull between keeping the hard-earned wisdom of past generations while being open to letting it evolve and grow, both in general and at the margins to account for differing circumstances.

The reason I'm agitating more for the former is because it makes up more time (and thus, more minds) and deserves more relative deference, and because it seems to need the help. Because while it's a well-known and well-understood trope/meme that haha old people fear change, slightly less appreciated is the very obvious and equally undeniable counterpart of young people are way too open to new and dramatic ideas. Probably because, duh, the kids are the ones using tropes and memes the most in the first place. So of course there's memes about how right they are, and of course your great aunt in the MAGA hat doesn't have a pixelated GIF to respond to you with.

Re: Green Book. Yeah, it being a relatively ho-hum movie (in all but the acting, of course) probably didn't help. Rationally, there's no reason that should matter to those types of criticisms, but in practice that's the kind of thing that tends to lead people (critics, editorialists masquerading as critics, whatever) to feel a lot safer levying those kinds of criticisms, relative to what they might be willing to say if the film were truly exceptional.

I don't think Green Book was ever really the kind of thing people would complain about the way people complain about wokeness now, though. I think that (in this case, the idea that racists in the 60s would've reacted to Green Book the same way people do to some overtly woke artistic work now) is revisionism, though. A big part of the problem is the (often explicitly stated!) belief that every one of these struggles is just like all the others, all cultural vanguard ideas are the Right Side of History, and in time they'll all look equally as valid and obvious as the Civil Rights movement (hence the Skinner meme). I think that's borne out of survivorship bias (a constant and unavoidable issue with progressive notions of history, by its very nature) and half a dozen other things.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Whoops started a firestorm. I use to love the Oscars, now I can barely stomach watching them. I feel like if you are a white straight male you almost have to get up there and apologize for winning an Oscar now. Every person that gets up there has a righteous cause to support like they are on some morally superior mountain top the rest of us can only see through binoculars. It nauseating. Meanwhile they are sucking at the teat of China where most of these issues, Gay rights, Women's rights, racism, christian/Muslim re-education camps, concentration camps, freedom of speech, climate concerns etc....are all much more severe there then here by miles. Hell I even heard Once Upon A Time In Hollywood reshot the Bruce Lee scenes to appease China. It's all just too much hypocriticism to stomach anymore.

As far as the movies themselves, it's fine to have an agenda but most of these movies slap you upside the head with a rock with their message. Subtlety is all but gone, but these movies get rewarded now. You guys are much more articulate then me on this, but it's just taken a turn for the worse and I think the quality of movies have suffered.

I think 2 years ago was my breaking point when the best picture of the year Blade Runner 2049 didn't even get a nom for obvious reasons and Nolan didn't stand a chance to win Best Director. Both films trying to push the median forward to me. :shrug:

Having said all that, I still enjoy hearing all the winners and I've said my peace on it, don't want to distract from the topic anymore.

I think probably Phoenix and the Joker probably deserve some kind of Oscar (haven't seen it yet) but I don't think he or it will stand a chance with the politics around the movie. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood probably doesn't have a chance either. If Bombshell is anywhere near good expect for that to win acting noms for obvious reasons. I usually known better the closer December comes and I can watch most of the Oscar bait movies.

you don't really believe that

I do, with the caveat that "films" is plural because it refers to film in total, as a medium, and not just any individual film. Obviously individual films can be mindless entertainment, and that's fine, but it would in fact be vapid and naive to expect that all films, the medium itself, to eschew any connections to real issues.

Fair. But I think all really good works of art have a dominant entertainment motive (that goes back to Shakespeare, Cervantes, The Iliad). And films aren't a form that can have a message as the subject, they're one that may grip you or take you into a world or involve you emotionally. The cinema deserves to be rescued from the classroom curse which has lain heavily on it, and become entertainment once more.

And really, it's that sort of practice that has raised the ghost of long-dead philistines who thought the poet a liar and history the only truth.

Hmmm. I honestly can't tell if I agree or not. My instinct is that many great works have an instructional motive, but that very few have what we'd call a "political" motive, which is a slightly subtle distinction I can go into if anyone cares (though I might have to spin this off into its own thread soon).

Anyway, it's an interesting question. I certainly agree with the idea that when a film starts with A Point rather than a story, it's chances of being good seem to plummet.

I don't think there's any mutual exclusivity between having a message and involving you emotionally. In fact, I think that's sort of why it works. Frankly, it's kind of insidious: emotionally-involved stories are very effective ways to smuggle viewpoints in without being subjected to debate or critical analysis.

I agree that, in general, the medium is in danger of becoming too instructional. And I think it's for the reason mentioned above: it's really really good at being instructional, when done well. I'd say it's the most effective medium for propaganda, specifically because it can bypass our critical faculties, to the point where we can receive a message without it registering that we're being taught anything at all.

I'm not including in 'really good works of art' those works of almost superhuman eloquence, made for fame not profit, and seldom read/watched except as a solemn intellectual task. Certain 'masterpieces' may still arouse historic interest, but they have lost contemporary relevance (and made them more or less a dead bore to all but specialists). An English poet said they're Apollonian. Apollo being a patron of the intellect, not of intuitive truth: of metre, not of rhythm; of novelty, not of timelessness.

Orson Welles said about Godard's later films 'his message is what he cares about these days, and, like most movie messages, it could be written on the head of a pin.' (He's also the one who said it's not a form in which ideas are very fecund). All talk of motives & models tends to trivialise and de-universalise what the filmmaker has created. The integrity of fiction must be defended. The artists motive should be creative, not critical.

& my best actor prediction is eddie murphy, watch this space

Can you give me some examples of both/either, to clarify what you mean a bit?

I wonder if I'm misunderstanding, because this seems untenably extreme. All talk of motive trivializes the artistic expression? Many great works have some kind of viewpoint, and I don't think anyone can draw a clear line between expressing a feeling an an idea. It's easy enough to come up with extreme examples that pretty clearly fall onto one side or the other, but there are lots that don't neatly fall exclusively on either. It feels (heh) like any specific example of invoking a feeling is going to inevitably involve some kind of message, even if just implicitly. To invoke pathos is to value empathy. To invoke disgust is to express a moral standard that's been transgressed against. And so on.

I agree that the "motive should be creative," but I don't agree with the suggestion (assuming I'm understanding you correctly, of course) that to make something "creative" is some purely empty aesthetic act. It almost never is. Novels, films, they're chock-full of ideas, and you can't really express and frame ideas without expressing some kind of viewpoint. That's not at odds with creativity, that is creativity, to my mind.

Shakespeare, Don Quixote, The Iliad vis a vis Paradise Lost, Dante, Virgil

All talk tends to. Yes an artist has something to say, but he's not sermon-writing. The idea that the first importance of him is his 'message' is what's untenable. E.g. the poets only concerned with reconciling certain impressions of life as they occur to him and presenting them in the msot effective way possible, without reference to their education value. R Graves said 'the more definitely propagandist the poet, the less of a poet is the propagandist.'

Sorry, I mean, examples of both "sides" of this, so I can understand what qualifies some works and not others.

I'm also pretty confused about the fame/profit distinction you made, since the implication was that the "intellectual" works were made for fame, implying that the artistic works are made for profit, which I personally don't have a problem with but isn't how much people think about great art (they often believe it's mutually exclusive with the profit motive).

I agree with that, with the caveat that the posture here is way more applicable to literal poetry than to film. Since we're quoting to supplement our views, I like this one, paraphrased from memory: "The essence of mathematics is to make the complicated simple, but in poetry, it's the opposite." It's delightful to read a dense and obfuscated description, in poetry, before pulling back and realizing "oh, it's just about a flower." But even then, of course, the implicit idea is "this simple thing actually contains great depth."

Anyway, I'm not sure we're too far apart here, so I'll simply state what I believe and we'll see if there's any disagreement: if we analyze any great aesthetic work, I think we'll invariably find it is, at its core, trying to convey an idea, it's simply doing it with feeling as an entry point, rather than, say, argument. So the distinction is not that film has to be about feelings and not ideas, but merely that it has to work backwards to an idea from the feeling it produces.

The latter don't qualify. I think even if you haven't read all those you get my general thrust.

Well, you know, Homer had to earn his slices of fat roast mutton and his cup of honey-sweet wine; he provided good popular entertainment. The same with Shakespeare. Welles wanted his films to be moderately succesful. Though I'm not saying all art is made for profit, but no real artist had serious designs on their fame/posterity.

That quotes not my cup of tea. A particular aspect of the flower may fire some emotional tinder and suggest a poem. But the flower is no more the subject of the poem than the murder of an Archduke was the cause of WWI.

I disagree

Well, you certainly don't have to persuade me; I think the tension between art and commerce is wildly overblown, if not entirely backwards.

How do you figure? Also, for our purposes, does it matter if the flower is the subject? The relevant point is that whatever inspires the poem, the purpose of it is never just "here are words with meter." They almost invariably are trying to convey an idea, albeit in a way that uses aesthetics and feelings to underscore its profundity (or, in some cases, to make a challenging idea more palpable).

With which part, and why?

It's not words & meter, but it's also something more than an idea. Poetry as the Greeks knew it is a form of psycho-therapy. Being the transformation into dream symbolism of some disturbing emotional crisis in the poet’s mind (whether dominated by delight or pain) poetry has the power of healing other men’s minds similarly troubled, by presenting them under the spell of hypnosis (through using rhythm) with an allegorical solution of the trouble.

I.e. a schoolteacher might say the whole importance of Wordsworth's poem lies in his simple perception of the beauty of daffodils, but it's an important poem only because Wordsworth has written spontaneously and recorded to his own satisfaction an emotional state which we all can recognize. The daffodils have interrupted the thoughts of an unhappy, lonely man and, reminding him of his childhood, become at once emblems of a golden age of disinterested human companionship; he uses their memory later as a charm to banish the spectres of trouble and loneliness.

Do you see how that goes against the i d e a that poems are conveying an idea. It's the same for films in a roundabout way.

Agreed, but I haven't suggested that poems/art/whatever are only ideas. Obviously the way in which art is expressed is an inextricable part of it. The only thing I've taken issue with is the suggestion that art isn't really about ideas or suffers in some fundamental way by having a point of view. The above seems to flip the burden of proof, by asking me to defend the idea that it is only ideas, when my actual position is that it is not only feeling.

I think the phrase "allegorical solution" is a perfect example of what I mean. I think the process being described fits what I said earlier about "working backwards to the idea from the feeling." Creative work can establish a bond with those "similarly troubled," as you say, and once established, use that bond to transmit an idea that enriches or comforts them, even if that idea is simply some kind of perspective from their pain. I don't see the idea and the aesthetics as mutually exclusive, or even at tension with one another, but rather as two irreducible components of a single thing.

I'll grant this is all a little muddied by the fact that our emotions sometimes allow us to understand something on an intuitive level before we can articulate that understanding intellectually. I think that makes it difficult to know which part of creative expression is the cart, and which is the horse, but I'm not sure it matters, anyway. What matters is that you need them both if you're going to be transported anywhere.

This is all true (and lovely), but it also seems perfectly in step with what I'm saying. If that poem had stopped a few lines earlier it would seem like a purely aesthetic description of flowers, but it doesn't: it concludes with the idea that these memories can be invoked in a sullen mood to brighten the spirit. The description of pretty flowers stops and gives way to, put crudely, a set of instructions for its use!

The emphasis on "an" is throwing me a bit. Is the disagreement here based on the belief that I'm saying they have to contain one? Because I'm definitely not saying that. If I've ever used the singular "idea" in any contention it's just a general reference to the concept, and not a suggestion that every work of art has to have some kind of singular thrust to it.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

You have two British elderly actors in the mix Jonathan Pryce and Ian McKellen which don't forget Christian Bale so that's the UK voting block and that's pretty powerful.

Yeah, even I understand that the "silence, boomer" mentality too frequently fails to account for certain nuances - it's not like there aren't a whole lot of young people with bad politics, after all.

Last I heard, Tarantino himself refused to recut it so at this rate it's not happening.

Lack of subtlety doesn't strike me as a particularly recent problem when it comes to the films that the Academy rewards, though.

As much as I liked Blade Runner 2049 (arguably more than any of that year's Best Picture nominees), I also understand that it's still got a relatively niche appeal so I already knew not to expect too much for it. I am glad that it did win for its cinematography and effects so it definitely got rewarded for the right things. I would contest Nolan deserving a win, though - especially for Dunkirk (but then again I guess it has the same technique-above-all approach that so many other recent Best Director winners seem to love - definitely makes GDT's more understated win a bit of an anomaly).

Regarding Phoenix, I think he stands a good chance of a nomination/win anyway. You could argue it's the cynical move by the Academy to increase viewership, but he's a respected actor who already has multiple nominations and damn near everyone who's seen the movie still cites his performance as the highlight even if they hated the movie. I don't think the Academy cares quite as much about a movie's bad politics (inside or out) as you may think - Three Billboards took home two acting Oscars, after all.

Oh right, we do agree after all. The cumulative effect of his work is to suggest a great number of personal obsessions the sum of which compose if you like the "idea". I think it's an instinctive thing, don't you Yoda, not brought about by feeling a responsibility, if you want to make a picture because it would be a message, Yoda, it'd be a bad picture, no? A poem is something that happens to a poet (& that poet then saying what he means honestly, convincingly and with passion), basically, if you make a film because you feel like it, that's better. I believe in instinct more than intelligence.

RE something you said re Wordsworth, it only exists on an intuitive level, doesn't it? I think so. For someone who's early memories of flower picking were blighted by brutal companionship and forced labour for the flower market, it wouldn't seem a masterpiece, unless he wrote a poem of the exact opposite sense (and schoolteachers would point out that the importance of the poem lay in Wordsworth's 'perception of the dreadfulness of spring flowers').

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

maaaaate mate
the boomer meme is so embarrassing mate
nah IM NOT KIDDING MATE

it does almost look as if we shall have to judge all this stuff on its merits - just like literature and painting and that type of thing

Yeah, that's fair. Maybe the key distinction here is that that usually leads to better art, even if it doesn't necessarily. You'll have to forgive me, I'm a little pedantic and often find myself responding to things I mostly agree with just to sand the edges off the extremes. I definitely agree with the general sentiment here.

Where it gets interesting, for me, are those situations where a feeling and an idea are highly entwined, which is the case for me with a whole lot of things. If I were ever to express myself creatively about something on that level I don't think there'd be much meaningful distinction between the two. But maybe I'm weird in that regard.

I'm...not sure? I mean, if it invoked such a strong reaction in someone, even a negative one, it's hard not to see that as a testament to its power, whether that specific reaction was intended or not.

That said, if we strip down the "point" of the poem (the scare quotes are just there because I recognize it's slightly silly to pretend the poem can have a point completely separate from the way it's expressed), it would seem to simply say that the memory of beautiful things can be stored and recalled in harder times to help us through them, that truth is something anybody could take from it regardless of their associations with flowers in particular.

But maybe (probably?) I'm not understanding the question, so please feel free to elaborate/clarify/whatever.

But is the function of poetry to overpower? To be overpowered is to accept spiritual defeat. Shakespeare never overpowers: he raises up.

Yeah you do get it - I recognize it's slightly silly to pretend the poem can have a point completely separate from the way it's expressed.
I guess it's kind of hard to express though.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Ok, I'm adding a new name to the mix.

Shia LeBeouf.

You heard that right.

His new movie Honey Boy is getting rave reviews and most critics are praising his acting and writing (he penned the film, which is loosely based on his own life, himself).

I suppose the Best Actor category is overflooded with lock-ins, but I can definitely see Shia nab a Best Original Screenplay nomination.



Now if this is not the biggest comeback of the year, I don't know what is.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

These are my predictions,not necessarily who i want to win
Picture - Jojo rabbit (Dark-horse Bombshell)
Director - Bong Joon-ho( Darkhorse Mendes)
Actor - Adam Driver (Darkhorse Banderas)
Actress - Zellweger (Darkhorse Theron)
Supp actor - Al Pacino (Darkhorse Hopkins)
Supp actress - Laura Dern (Darkhorse Shuzhen)

The Irishman should win Best Picture. Scorsese should win Best Director. That's how I see it.

The Irishman or Parasite should win but the academy don't always give the awards to the most deserving

If I had to bet money early, then Parasite would most definitely be my pick to win. That or Marriage Story. It comes down between those two, and I'm willing to bet The Academy isn't keen on giving yet another best picture to a heavy drama about "whiteness", or maybe they will considering it's more independent and it's about artists. I'm just thinking they might have intention on fixing their supposed mistake in not giving a foreign film best picture, especially one that seems more "auteur"-ish than the usual Oscar fare. One thing's for certain, whatever wins has to at least get a director or screenplay win (whether it be adapted or original). So keep that in mind before the big night.

Laura Dern (Marriage Story) and Brad Pitt (which would absolutely make my night if he were to win an Oscar for playing Cliff Booth) both seem like strong possibilities to win the supporting awards, and Renee Zellweger as Judy Garland is pretty much a lock by this point due to how much of a default consensus vote she would be. Which brings me to probably the hardest category to predict in terms of outcome... You see, back in October, I was dead set on Phoenix taking it (if I were an Academy voter, he would have my vote in a heartbeat). He just seemed so right and the movie was so big and his face was literally everywhere, especially with those gastly visuals of him trying to force a smile while crying, not to mention that it's R-rated and reached about a billion dollars making it one of the biggest films ever. But after giving it some thought very recently, I think I'm more than a little torn between him and Adam Driver for Marriage Story. He seems to take every box and all film journalist or awards experts have been vouching for him, but his performance is said to be nowhere near “flashy” or “big” or “obvious.” That’s the direction the Academy tends to trend when it comes to best actor (remember good ole Winston Churchill, or maybe Rami Malek’s fake teeth?) I dunno, it's only December. I think we'll all have a better understanding of who the winner will be when the Golden Globes come around.

This season is absolutely packed, which means it's going to be harder to predict, those participating in prediction contests are going to be super tense (especially if precursors split). There have been so many awesome movies this year and thus award season is going to be more huge than it has been in years. Expect a plethora of snubs.

National Board of Review awardees have been announced:

The Irishman is Best Picture
Quentin Tarantino is Best Director
Adam Sandler is Best Actor
Renee Zellweger is Best Actress
Brad Pitt is Best Supporting Actor
Kathy Bates is Best Supporting Actress
The Safdie Brothers and Ronald Bronstein (Uncut Gems) are Best Original Screenplay
Steven Zaillian (The Irishman) is Best Adapted Screenplay
Parasite is Best Foreign Language Film
Maiden is Best Documentary
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is Best Animated Feature
Knives Out is Best Ensemble
Paul Walter Hauser is Best Breakthough Actor
Melina Matsoukas (Queen & Slim) is Best Directorial Debut


https://ew.com/awards/2019/12/03/201...ers-announced/

:tsk:

Obviously I've not seen the movie as it hasn't come out yet, but if he takes home a Golden Globe or an Oscar any hope I have of restoring my respect for either ceremony is going to be gone.

It's the Safdie's so Uncut Gems was basically a hometown film for New York the bigger news is the great showing for Richard Jewel and shutout of Little Women

Adam’s getting a lot of buzz. I think he will get an Oscar nomination but will not win it. Joaquin Phoenix is still the worthy winner in my book.

I forgot to add that Quentin Tarantino was named Best Director

Richard Jewell made a great showing: Kathy Bates winning Best Supporting Actress and Paul Walter Hauser being recognized as Best Breakthrough Performance.

Kathy Bates will certainly be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Globes and Oscars. Hauser could get nominated for the Globes but will most likely be snubbed at the Oscars.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I thought Paul Walter Hauser's breakthrough was I, Tonya. His Shawn Eckhardt was one of the best things about that flick. He was strong in BlackKklansman, too.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I'm guessing it's because Richard Jewell shows he's got more range than just playing fat goofy idiots like he does in those particular films (albeit very well in the case of I, Tonya and even then he's obviously overshadowed by Robbie and Janney).

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Hauser was really good in the last season of Cobra Kai, too.

The New York Film Critics Circle awards were announced today:

https://variety.com/2019/film/awards...RcJNlGHhcVxXJI

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Critics Choice Awards nominations were announced today:

https://variety.com/2019/film/awards...ns-1203428878/

BEST PICTURE
“1917”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
“Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – “Pain and Glory”
Robert De Niro – “The Irishman”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver – “Marriage Story”
Eddie Murphy – “Dolemite Is My Name”
Joaquin Phoenix – “Joker”
Adam Sandler – “Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTRESS
Awkwafina – “The Farewell”
Cynthia Erivo – “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson – “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Saoirse Ronan – “Little Women”
Charlize Theron – “Bombshell”
Renée Zellweger – “Judy”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – “The Lighthouse”
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins – “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino – “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci – “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson – “Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez – “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh – “Little Women”
Margot Robbie – “Bombshell”
Zhao Shuzhen – “The Farewell”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Julia Butters – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Roman Griffin Davis – “Jojo Rabbit”
Noah Jupe – “Honey Boy”
Thomasin McKenzie – “Jojo Rabbit”
Shahadi Wright Joseph – “Us”
Archie Yates – “Jojo Rabbit”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”
“Knives Out”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”
Bong Joon Ho – “Parasite”
Sam Mendes – “1917”
Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Martin Scorsese – “The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Rian Johnson – “Knives Out”
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won – “Parasite”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Lulu Wang – “The Farewell”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”
Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony McCarten – “The Two Popes”
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – “Joker”
Taika Waititi – “Jojo Rabbit”
Steven Zaillian – “The Irishman”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – “The Lighthouse”
Roger Deakins – “1917”
Phedon Papamichael – “Ford v Ferrari”
Rodrigo Prieto – “The Irishman”
Robert Richardson – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Lawrence Sher – “Joker”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran – “Joker”
Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales – “1917”
Jess Gonchor, Claire Kaufman – “Little Women”
Lee Ha Jun – “Parasite”
Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bob Shaw, Regina Graves – “The Irishman”
Donal Woods, Gina Cromwell – “Downton Abbey”

BEST EDITING
Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker – “Ford v Ferrari”
Yang Jinmo – “Parasite”
Fred Raskin – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Thelma Schoonmaker – “The Irishman”
Lee Smith – “1917”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – “Dolemite Is My Name”
Julian Day – “Rocketman”
Jacqueline Durran – “Little Women”
Arianne Phillips – “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson – “The Irishman”
Anna Robbins – “Downton Abbey”

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
“Bombshell”
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“1917”
“Ad Astra”
“The Aeronauts”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Abominable”
“Frozen II”
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”

BEST ACTION MOVIE
“1917”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum”
“Spider-Man: Far From Home”

BEST COMEDY
“Booksmart”
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“The Farewell”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE
“Ad Astra”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Midsommar”
“Us”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Atlantics”
“Les Misérables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”

BEST SONG
“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)” – “Wild Rose”
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – “Rocketman”
“I’m Standing With You” – “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown” – “Frozen II”
“Speechless” – “Aladdin”
“Spirit” – “The Lion King”
“Stand Up” – “Harriet”

BEST SCORE
Michael Abels – “Us”
Alexandre Desplat – “Little Women”
Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Joker”
Randy Newman – “Marriage Story”
Thomas Newman – “1917”
Robbie Robertson – “The Irishman”

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

In normal circumstance I think at this stage anyway there are some quite easy predictions, Tarantino taking best director/picture, Phoenix in Joker best actor, Johansson in Marriage story for best actress, all people who would probably be considered "due" with films that seem well aimed for awards, maybe Driver might be a good challenge for Marriage story as well on the same lines.

Its moreso I'd say the political climate that makes things harder to predict.

I think Driver is going to win for Marriage Story, Scarjo might have issues. Laura Dern is going to be a huge contender for supporting actress and I don't know if Marriage Story is going to get three acting Oscars.


I think the "due" Oscars are going to go with Brad Pitt and Quentin Tarantino

Golden Globe nominations have been announced (I'm only listing the film nominations)

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...125959132.html

Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Irishman
Joker
The Two Popes
Marriage Story
1917

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Knives Out
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Rocketman

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Les Misérables

Best Director – Motion Picture
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Best Motion Picture – Animated
Frozen 2
Toy Story 4
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
The Lion King

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Thomas Newman, 1917
Hildur Guonadottir, Joker
Randy Newman, Marriage Story
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“Spirit,” The Lion King
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Major snubs I've noticed at the Globes this year:

Robert Deniro, Willem Dafoe, Robert Pattinson, Adam Sandler.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Wow Lion King got nominated for animation?!

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Foreign language is stacked this year!

The SAG Award nominations were announced today:

Cast in a Motion Picture
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale, “Ford v Ferrari”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Jamie Foxx, “Just Mercy”

Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Nicole Kidman, “Bombshell”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Ensemble in a Drama Series
“Big Little Lies”
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”

Male Actor in a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Steve Carell, “The Morning Show”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”

Female Actor in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The Crown”
Olivia Colman, “The Crown
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Ensemble in a Comedy Series
“Barry”
“Fleabag”
“The Kominsky Method”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Schitt’s Creek”

Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Andrew Scott, “Fleabag”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag”

Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Jharrel Jerome, “When They See Us”
Jared Harris, “Chernobyl”
Mahershala Ali, “True Detective”
Russell Crowe, “The Loudest Voice”
Sam Rockwell, “Fosse/Verdon”

Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Patricia Arquette, “The Act”
Toni Collette, “Unbelievable”
Joey King, “The Act”
Emily Watson, “Chernobyl”
Michelle Williams, “Fosse/Verdon”

Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“Game of Thrones”
“GLOW”
“Stranger Things”
“The Walking Dead”
“Watchmen”

Bombshell ?? Is that not the perfect Me Too/SJW selection?..:rolleyes: If that's the case, look for it at the Oscars.

Since last visiting this thread, I have seen Joker, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that Joaquin Phoenix will win anything he gets nominated for, including winning his first Oscar. Adam Driver was wonderful in Marriage Story but he doesn't stand a chance against Phoenix. I'm a lit4tle surprised there's no mention of Renee Zellweger in Judy, which I saw yesterday. She is easily my forerunner for Best Actress. The movie is not getting great reviews but Zellweger is brilliant. I don't see it happening in a million years, but I would love to see Taron Egerton win for Rocketman

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I mean, it’s based off of actual events so it isn’t like it’s shoehorned in there.
It is getting good reviews after all

Rotten Tomatoes has it at 66%, IMDB about the same-- audience and critics both. Still, it won't be surprising if the flick gets shoehorned into the Oscar nominations.

My point is that the story was chosen because of it's PC/SJ value, and because of that it wasn't loved. RTs "Critics consensus" puts it this way:

"Bombshell benefits from a terrific cast and a worthy subject, but its impact is muffled by a frustrating inability to go deeper than the sensationalistic surface."

Well, at least it was a worthy subject...:rolleyes::D

~Doc

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

You don’t think it was a worthy subject? And reviews are subjective, anyways. I don’t rely on any review to make my decision for me.
Regardless, PC/SJ have been around for a long time in one form or another. The old days they were social conscious movies.
PC/SJ just got added on pejoratively, as if it’s a bad thing.
I doubt it’ll get an Oscar nom for BP, but the 3 main actresses all probably will. And that seems to be the consensus on the film.
I’m ok with that, but I reserve final judgement on it until I’ve seen it.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

There’s barely any actual marketing for Zellweger to get a nomination and that’s sad.
I wouldn’t have even known of it had she not gotten any nominations at all.
Definitely one to look out for when it becomes available.

The 2020 Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award nominees...

Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Winner to be announced Saturday, January 25.

Bombshell doesn't go far enough but having seen it Charlize Theron gives arguably the best performance of her career and easily tops Phoenix's Joker

For actor, I prob go with Joaquin. ( doesn't always happen but usually whoever wins the golden globe, have a higher chance of getting the oscar.

The winner should be Scorsese or Tarantino, but it sure seems like Mendes will win it. Joon-Ho has a big chance of winning it too. Waititi has a very slim chance. Actually he has no chance.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Now I wonder what the overlap is between the various guilds' nominees and the Academy's nominees tend to be (what with Academy members who belong to particular fields choosing the nominees for those fields - game recognise game and all that).

For the DGA as an example you can be sure that nearly every single member of the Directors Branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is also a member of the DGA. But the Directors Guild of America also includes directors of television, commercials, documentaries, and videos so their pool of members is much, much larger and contains many who will never be on the Academy's voting rolls. As of 2018 there were 512 members of the Directors Branch of the Academy, out of 7,258 total Academy members. The Directors Guild of America has around 18,000 members.

Even with that disparity in numbers the five DGA nominees and five Oscar nominees for Best Director are very similar, usually differing by one spot but rarely more than that. And the DGA Award is by far the most accurate predictor of who will win the corresponding Oscar compared to other Guild awards. The PGA (Producers Guild of America) is also a pretty strong correlator to the Best Picture winner. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writers Guild of America (WGA), and American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) all have annual year-end awards, there is plenty of overlap with the Oscars, but they are never all identical and nothing is infallible as a predictor.

In the previous nine awards seasons the five DGA and five Oscar nominees for Best Director never matched exactly. In seven of those nine there was only one difference. The other two years had three differences once and a pair the other in their ballots. But the two bodies have had the same winner in all but one of those years. The one that didn't match being the anomaly of the DGA winner (Ben Affleck for Argo) not even being nominated by The Academy (Ang Lee won that year for Life of Pi) and also the year with three differences on the ballot. That is very, very rare. Last year's crop was the one with two differences on the ballots: the DGA nominated Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Spike Lee (BlackKklansman), and Adam McKay (Vice) while the Oscars had Cuarón, Lee, and McKay but nominated Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) and Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War) in favor of Cooper and Farrelly. Alfonso Cuarón won both awards.

The odds are the five Oscar nominees will NOT be exactly the same as the five DGA nominees. Since 1980 they have only matched all five nominees four times: 1981 (Warren Beatty won both awards for Reds), 1998 (Spielberg won both for Saving Private Ryan), 2005 (Ang Lee won both for Brokeback Mountain), and 2009 (Kathryn Bigelow won both for The Hurt Locker). If I had to guess I would say Mendes, Scorsese, and Tarantino are locks for Oscar spots, Bong Joon-Ho is a near lock, and Taika Waititi likely won't make the Oscar cut. Greta Gerwig (Little Women) or Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) would be my guess as to who takes that fifth spot with The Safdie Brothers (Uncut Gems) or Todd Phillips (Joker) hanging around the margins to vault in. If Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life) or Pedro Almodóvar (Pain & Glory) were to have their names called it woulnd't be a total shock as they are well respected former nominees in this category, but I don't see them making it this time (though both made great films). Waititi is one of my favorite directors, Jojo Rabbit was a delight, and I am hoping against hope he makes the Academy cut. But I don't think it's likely.


We'll know Monday morning

The New York Film Critics Cirlce had their awards last night. The winners...

PICTURE
The Irishman

DIRECTOR
The Safdie Brothers, Uncut Gems

ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o, Us

ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story and Little Women

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

SCREENPLAY
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Parasite

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

DOCUMENTARY
Honeyland

ANIMATED FEATURE
I Lost My Body

BEST FIRST FILM
Atlantics

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Critics Choice Awards winners (asterisks)

BEST PICTURE
“1917”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
”Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*
“Parasite”
“Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – “Pain and Glory”
Robert De Niro – “The Irishman”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Adam Driver – “Marriage Story”
Eddie Murphy – “Dolemite Is My Name”
Joaquin Phoenix – “Joker”*
Adam Sandler – “Uncut Gems”

BEST ACTRESS
Awkwafina – “The Farewell”
Cynthia Erivo – “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson – “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o – “Us”
Saoirse Ronan – “Little Women”Charlize Theron – “Bombshell”
Renée Zellweger – “Judy”*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – “The Lighthouse”
Tom Hanks – “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins – “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino – “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci – “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – “Marriage Story”*
Scarlett Johansson – “Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez – “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh – “Little Women”
Margot Robbie – “Bombshell”
Zhao Shuzhen – “The Farewell”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Julia Butters – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Roman Griffin Davis – “Jojo Rabbit”*
Noah Jupe – “Honey Boy”
Thomasin McKenzie – “Jojo Rabbit”
Shahadi Wright Joseph – “Us”
Archie Yates – “Jojo Rabbit”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
“Bombshell”
“The Irishman”*
“Knives Out”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”
Bong Joon Ho – “Parasite”*
Sam Mendes – “1917”*
Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Martin Scorsese – “The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – “Marriage Story”
Rian Johnson – “Knives Out”
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won – “Parasite”
Quentin Tarantino – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*
Lulu Wang – “The Farewell”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – “Little Women”*
Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue – “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony McCarten – “The Two Popes”
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – “Joker”
Taika Waititi – “Jojo Rabbit”
Steven Zaillian – “The Irishman”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – “The Lighthouse”
Roger Deakins – “1917”*
Phedon Papamichael – “Ford v Ferrari”
Rodrigo Prieto – “The Irishman”
Robert Richardson – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Lawrence Sher – “Joker”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran – “Joker”
Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales – “1917”
Jess Gonchor, Claire Kaufman – “Little Women”
Lee Ha Jun – “Parasite”
Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”*
Bob Shaw, Regina Graves – “The Irishman”
Donal Woods, Gina Cromwell – “Downton Abbey”

BEST EDITING
Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie – “Uncut Gems”
Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker – “Ford v Ferrari”
Yang Jinmo – “Parasite”
Fred Raskin – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Thelma Schoonmaker – “The Irishman”
Lee Smith – “1917”*

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – “Dolemite Is My Name”*
Julian Day – “Rocketman”
Jacqueline Durran – “Little Women”
Arianne Phillips – “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson – “The Irishman”
Anna Robbins – “Downton Abbey”

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
“Bombshell”*
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“1917”
“Ad Astra”
“The Aeronauts”
“Avengers: Endgame”*
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Abominable”
“Frozen II”
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”*

BEST ACTION MOVIE
“1917”
“Avengers: Endgame”*
“Ford v Ferrari”
“John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum”
“Spider-Man: Far From Home”

BEST COMEDY
“Booksmart”
“Dolemite Is My Name”*
“The Farewell”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE
“Ad Astra”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“Midsommar”
“Us”*

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Atlantics”
“Les Misérables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”*
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”

BEST SONG
“Glasgow” (No Place Like Home) – “Wild Rose”* (TIE)
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – “Rocketman”* (TIE)
“I’m Standing With You” – “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown” – “Frozen II”
“Speechless” – “Aladdin”
“Spirit” – “The Lion King”
“Stand Up” – “Harriet”

BEST SCORE
Michael Abels – “Us”
Alexandre Desplat – “Little Women”
Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Joker”*
Randy Newman – “Marriage Story”
Thomas Newman – “1917”
Robbie Robertson – “The Irishman”

It was Todd Phillips who took that fifth spot. Meaning if anybody but Waititi wins the DGA Award they instantly become the prohibitive favorite to win the Oscar. And it means that historically Todd Phillips basically has almost zero chance of winning at the Academy Awards.

The DGA Awards are announced Sunday January 26th, two weeks before the Oscars.

It doesn't look like anybody listed the nominees for the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards here. They were announced at the beginning of the month and they reveal their winners this weekend.

The PGA nominees for Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

These are the exact nine nominees for Oscar's Best Picture, plus Knives Out. The PGA started handing out their annual awards in 1990 and since then their winner has matched The Academy's Best Picture 21 out of 30 times. 70% is a pretty darn good predictor, though nothing like the DGA's accuracy. The PGA has been trending more accurately of late. In the past dozen awards seasons they have matched Oscar all but twice (The Big Short/Spotlight and La La Land/Moonlight). Whatever they name this Saturday has a darn good chance of winning the Academy Award.

So far the favorites are unsurprisingly continuing to roll. Dern's speech was heartfelt, Pitt's was very funny. Expect more of the same come Oscar night.

The other two heavy favorites cruised to their Oscar warm up victories. Zellweger was annoying and for some reason reverted to the thick Southern drawl she hasn't had in real life since she was sixteen and Joaquin was incredibly charming and reverential to his fellow nominees.

No acting surprises this Oscar season.

Parasite did become the first foreign language film to win Best Cast at the SAG Awards. And once again will likely not match Best Picture.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Didn't realize the SAGs were happening. Just watched Phoenix's speech. Loved it. So sweet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbBnmdJJB4s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2E06W_56YFY

Wow! Amazing speeches by Joaquin and Brad. Truly humble and extraordinary gentlemen.

I was always sort of expecting Once Upon A Time In Hollywood to win the assemble but that Parasite win is a big deal, especially for a foreign film. There was apparently major love in that room last night, especially when the cast was brought out earlier to introduce the film. If there was any runner-up to 1917, it's this. Could definitely be this year's Moonlight.

Then again, Moonlight didn’t win either the PGA Award or the SAG Ensemble three years ago, but it still claimed best picture anyway. :beatty: Who knows what'll happen.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

I've made my Oscar picks and Parasite is going to take it. I'm expecting a split again this year.

Re: Early Awards Predictions
 

Please no. Don’t let Parasite win Best Picture at the Oscars. That would be super lame.

I feel iffy on making my picks now, especially best picture, given how atypically short this season is. There isn't a lot of time for further twists, it seems. I can't stress enough how important that Parasite win was, however. This was the only movie preventing 1917 from winning best picture, and any other film winning that ensemble would have been irrelevant.

Then again, the season is unusually short - standard precedents might not apply. 1917 is doing pretty well critically and commercially. Parasite might just have to settle for foreign language film, all depending on how the landscape for director and screenplay looks within the coming weeks.

Last night Sam Mendes did in fact win the DGA Award for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film. The DGA has been handing out this prize since 1948. Mendes becomes just the fifteenth person to win this award more than once. Spielberg leads everybody as the only to win three. Mendes now joins Francis Ford Coppola, Alfonso Cuarón, Clint Eastwood, Miloš Forman, Ron Howard, Alejandro González Iñárritu, David Lean, Ang Lee, Joseph L. Mankiewicz, George Stevens, Oliver Stone, Robert Wise, and Fred Zinnemann with two wins each. Mendes won his first twenty years ago for American Beauty on way to winning the Oscar for Best Director. He is on track to do the same with 1917.