View Full Version : MoFo Fantasy Football 2016 - The Playoffs
Another year in the books! And after 13 grueling weeks (seriously, is your lineup-setting finger as tired as mine?), we've whittled the 14 teams down to just 6.
Pretty fair outcomes re: points and wins. The top five scoring teams are the top five seeds (though not in the same order), and and the #6 seed, Spaulding, was the #7 scorer. The odd man out was Frightened Inmate, though he was just 7 points ahead.
Scoring matters, because unlikely the scheduling, it isn't random. Historically, the champions have had the following scoring ranks: #1, #5, #2, #4, #2, #1, #1, #2. I managed the top score this year, for the third straight year. Two years ago it led to a MoFo Bowl Victory, and last year, a first-round exit. So it sure doesn't guarantee anything, though in the utter chaos that is fantasy football in a given week, it's the best metric we have.
And what are we playing for? This thing of beauty:
http://www.movieforums.com/community/resize/phpThumb.php?src=/upload/trophy2010_med.jpg&w=600
Oooo, sparkly. On to the playoff teams!
-
The Byes
I've got the first bye at 11-2, and Pete hung onto the second at 9-5, thanks to a big performance from Andrew Luck that propelled Spaulding to victory. Neither of us knows who we'll play, because we're using playoff reseeding. So the only thing we know for sure is that I won't be playing TONGO in the next round, and Pete won't be playing Spaulding. All other matchups are possible.
I head into the playoffs having won the last three weeks, with only a 129-point loss breaking up what otherwise would've been a 12-week streak. Pete heads into the bye having lost his last two (after winning the previous seven!), but more concerning are the totals: 78 and 93, respectively.
#3. PlasticPads&IronMen (8-5, TONGO) vs. #6. Censored Clowns (7-6, Spaulding)
Though our settings force rosters to be fairly balanced, QBs are still pretty important, so QB matchups are one of the single-biggest factors in the playoffs. And that could be the difference here: Brees has been having a great year, particularly relative to the downturn many thought was coming, but he's also coming off worst came of the year (7 points). He hasn't played Tampa yet this year, but they're below-average against the QB. It's pretty clearly a pretty good matchup.
On the flip side, Andrew Luck has the opposite situation: he's coming off his his second-best total of the year (37+), but faces a very tough Houston pass defense.
TONGO has the edge at all the major positions, in a vacuum (hence his significantly higher point total this year) and I'd say his matchups are slightly better, too. His projection seems to be lower largely because of K and DEF, both of which can be particularly random.
Prediction: TONGO.
#4. The Empire (8-5, Fabulous) vs. #5. Los Pollos Hermanos (7-6, jiraffejustin)
jiraffe's weakened a bit, likely losing A.J. Green for the year. But he'll be trotting Le'Veon Bell and Demaro Murray out at RB, which is one of the few duos you'd put up against Fabulous' Elliott and Booker, though it's an open question whether he'll slot Rawls in there, instead, in a classic risk-reward decision.
With Green, jiraffe would be an exceptionally scary team right now, and he looks tough even without him. He'll be a moderate favorite (to Yahoo, at least) once he slots Murray into his lineup. A lot's going to depend on whether or not guys like Murray, Elliot, and Bell have their usual good games, or one of their really great ones.
Prediction: jiraffe, though any one of those three RBs could win this single-handedly.
-
The second matchup doesn't have any early players involved. TONGO and Spaulding have Spencer Ware, Amari Cooper, and Tyreek Hill going Thursday.
http://www.movieforums.com/community/resize/phpThumb.php?src=/upload/trophy2010_med.jpg&w=600
Couldnt find a picture of a gorilla actually drooling, as that would have truly been appropriate.
Congrats playoff squads. See you next year. My only solace in finishing last is I wasn't able to live draft this year. So naturally I blame Yahoo. Good luck guys.
Fabulous
12-11-16, 04:06 PM
I'm getting absolutely rocked.
A lot's going to depend on whether or not guys like Murray, Elliot, and Bell have their usual good games, or one of their really great ones.
Prediction: jiraffe, though any one of those three RBs could win this single-handedly.
Yep, this is what's happening. Turns out it's Bell, who's got nearly 40 points already. Probably winning a lot of playoff matches all by himself.
Im done. How demoralizing. Did I put up the lowest total in a playoff game? Ever?
Yeah. Though if you hadn't played this week, and I had, I would've set the record instead. Same might end up being true of Pete.
Browsing the league matchups, it looks like a ton of regular starters had unusually bad days. Just a horrendous week: I'll bet lots of good playoff teams lost.
Damn. Well..............Sigh
This is me saying I want in the baseball league this year. :lol: Oh damn its awful but since the score was so low, I weirdly feel less pain from it. Like it was such a complete meltdown to where it never seemed like a contest. Psychologists have a word for it, the latin term for it is LOSER :facepalm:
Fabulous
12-12-16, 03:51 AM
I won't be defending my title. Good luck to the remaining teams! :)
Tough break to both of you: TONGO for getting randomly slammed with otherwise good players, and Fabulous for putting up an okay total but going up against a huge one (though if it's any consolation, it looks like Bell's huge day won't be the difference). Looks like this is one of those years where the Byes may have mattered.
Looks like next we'll it'll be me vs. Spaulding's Clowns, and Pete's Beantown Champs against jiraffe's Hermanos.
I think its gonna be JJ and Yoda in the final.....and I think JJ is gonna steal the show ;)
Certainly wouldn't surprise me. Fair to say, of the three remaining teams, I'm most concerned about his.
Fabulous
12-12-16, 05:05 PM
Justin Tucker will go off for 50 points tonight.
Here we go:
-
11 Angry Men vs. Censored Clowns
On paper, I should have a significant advantage, but as Kenny Mayne used to say "games aren't played on paper, they're played by tiny little men inside televisions." And those adorable little TV men with their funny colorful little hats keep doing weird stuff that nobody sees coming.
Both QBs have awful matchups, though Stafford's got a hand injury, to boot (as opposed to a boot injury, to hand). But my two best players--Julio Jones and David Johnson--both have very good ones. Assuming Julio plays, and is effective, that's two elite players with a higher-than-usual chance of winning the matchup on their own.
Spaulding's team is built differently: it's deeper. Like last year, he's worked the waiver hard, and kept a lot of what he's found there. And like last year, that means he's got a lot of players you could make a decent case for as starters. Last week, even in victory, he had plenty of points on the bench. Depth is great during that regular season grind, but it can make for some tough decisions in the playoffs.
Admittedly, this is looking a lot like Sedai's upset last year, in that Spaulding's squad seems built to put up solid totals almost every week, but isn't usually a huge threat to break out (he's averaged ~99 points over the last four weeks, never dipping below 93 or above 112). He probably has a narrower range of outcomes than I do, so this probably comes down to whether or not I come near my projections. If I do, it should be enough.
Prediction: I'll take 11 tickets to MoFo Bowl IX, please.
Beantown Champs vs. Los Pollos Hermanos
Pete had a heckuva year...up until Week 12. Heading into that week he was 9-2, riding a seven game winning streak. Not only did he lose the last two, but more importantly, he scored just ~170 points over the two of them. And like me, he would've put up a dismal total this past week if not for the Bye. In other words: he heads into this matchup very cold.
Part of that is his QB situation, which is pretty tenuous. In fact, the guy he's been starting (Tyrod Taylor) might not be starting for Buffalo much longer. But if he does, he might be useful this week, up against Cleveland's awful pass defense.
Both teams have some pretty good matchups, but it's hard to bet against jiraffe running (pun intended) Bell and Murray out there, particularly with the possibility that A.J. Green returns. Those stud lottery tickets are really good to have. Pete has a pretty solid lineup outside of QB, but he's missing those explosive players that are so often the difference.
Prediction: jiraffe returns to the MoFo Bowl.
-
Thursday games: I've got Gurley, Graham, and Britt playing on Thursday, though I'm probably just starting the first two. Spaulding doesn't have anyone going early.
Pete has two players playing Thursday, (Ausin and Kendricks) but neither figures to start.
Yeah, so, about that prediction? Julio looks fairly likely to miss his second straight game. Ouch. That'd be a huge blow, given the matchup (and given that I have him on both my teams).
I had a lot of WR depth, but Pryor's value seems to have taken a big hit with RGIII starting, so the timing here is particularly bad on multiple fronts.
Help me David Johnson, you're my only hope.
It's Gurley and Graham tonight. Probably won't learn too much unless either of them goes off, or totally bombs. If they both get between 6 and 13 points, the odds probably don't shift much.
Britt's probably sitting on the bench. Even if Julio doesn't play, I'd probably go with Snead or Pryor before him, anyway. I'd be pretty tempted to roll with Britt because I think, based on volume, he's got a higher floor than those two, but I'm thinking that's counteracted by the matchup. At this point, the possibility of a lot of garbage time is the only thing giving me pause.
Well, pretty bad start. Gurley and Graham combined for fewer points than each of them were projected to score individually. Graham came inches away from a TD catch, and Gurley was missed on several pass attempts, one in particular that probably would've been a huge gain. Tons of near-misses.
It's the big day. For two teams in the semifinals, Spaulding and I had a shocking number of tough decisions to make. In his case, that's partially due to the general makeup of his team, but I constructed mine in part to specifically minimize this, and it happened anyway. As usual: Nobody Knows Anything.
Not gonna say it's the most thought I've put into lineup decisions, but it's up there. I think, with Julio out, I'm a moderate underdog, but there are a lot of wild cards today and the range of possible outcomes is way higher than it would normally be this time of year.
Here we go.
Well, late word that Starks was out led to Spaulding swapping Ty Montgomery in. Naturally he scores a short TD early, and then breaks a long run. Given that both of us look to put up modest scores, it's very easy to imagine Starks' concussion being the thing that swings the whole match.
Near halftime, Pryor with two short catches, Watkins with one, Diggs with zero, despite the last two being top 20 plays. What a mess. So far, this week looks a lot like last week, with all sorts of normally reliable players just not doing anything.
Gonna need things to go better in the second half of these games to have a chance.
rauldc14
12-18-16, 03:30 PM
Teams that start Kaepernick don't deserve to win. Ba dum ching.
I won my first fantasy championship with Tyler Thigpen. Fantasy football will force you into situations you never thought possible.
...and Montgomery adds another TD, right after Adams dropped an easy score, naturally. 28 points, after not even being in line to start, against a top 10 run defense.
Pretty nuts, and that'll probably do it.
Diggs and Watkins, consensus top 20 plays, are about to finish with fewer than 4 combined points. That sums it all up.
Since my last two players are probably the most important, I'll wait until they've played a bit to "concede," but barring a miracle, my sincere congratulations to Spaulding on his all-but-confirmed advancement to MoFo Bowl IX. Well played. :)
rauldc14
12-18-16, 04:56 PM
...and Montgomery adds another TD, right after Adams dropped an easy score, naturally. 28 points, after not even being in line to start, against a top 10 run defense.
Pretty nuts, and that'll probably do it.
Montgomery was always in line to start for the Packers, unless you mean for Clowns?
Yeah, for the Clowns. He had him on the bench and slotted him in when Starks was ruled out. That, combined with the insanely frigid weather, turned him from a really iffy flex play into a low RB1-high RB 2, and one who happened to get all the scores, too (Rodgers 0 TDs, Montgomery 2). Just a brutal turn of events.
Between this week and last week, so many good players had inexplicably crappy games that I have to think there's been a ton of shake up in nearly every fantasy bracket this year.
rauldc14
12-18-16, 05:29 PM
Fantasy is as random as ever this year. Julio Jones and Melvin Gordon were studs all year and didn't even play. Stuff like that makes me think we should just toss coins to determine a winner every week.
Sorry to see you eliminated Yoda.
As a protest against correct thinking, I decided to go full-waiver and bench Fitz, Brees, Armani, and Delanie for all those players which outscored them on my bench last week. Funny thing is I was right, except for Brees who outscored Flacco for almost 20 points. I lost anyway. If I had stayed with my "normal starters" Brees wouldnt have been enough to overcome Fab this week as Fitz & the rest underperformed again.
Well, at least I made the playoffs.
Thanks, Tongs. I'm on the verge of losing in the money league, too, but it's close. But there's a good chance by tonight I'll have two teams, which went a combined 22-5 in the regular season and were both the #1 seed, go 0-2 in the playoffs. :laugh: That's fantasy football in a nutshell.
jiraffejustin
12-19-16, 11:17 AM
Everything comes down to Monday Night Football for me, and in both leagues. I guess that's the way it should be, because stress is healthy.
Hey jiraffe! :D Yeah, we've got a close one. Pretty sure you've got the edge, though, albeit not a huge one.
jiraffejustin
12-19-16, 11:23 AM
I think I should win, based on my expert knowledge of the always predictable game of football, but I am not ready to pop the champagne just yet.
I think I should win, based on my expert knowledge of the always predictable game of football, but I am not ready to pop the champagne just yet.
Oh gosh man, those sound like famous last words, dont say that! :lol: Confidence and correct calculations have become omens for bad things man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU8gvF6WCIk
Seriously though JJ I am rooting for you. Id like to see another old timer win it for the first time. :)
Thanks, Tongs. I'm on the verge of losing in the money league, too, but it's close. But there's a good chance by tonight I'll have two teams, which went a combined 22-5 in the regular season and were both the #1 seed, go 0-2 in the playoffs. :laugh: That's fantasy football in a nutshell.
Yeah you definitely are the fantasy sports measuring stick around here. Im gonna do some true bookwork to catch up with you, Tim, and Mark in Baseball this year. For me this is the first time Ive felt where I dont want a Ray (or Buc) on my team. I think Ive finally burnt out my inner-homer flame. :yup:
jiraffejustin
12-20-16, 01:10 AM
Barring any drastic stat changes, I've lost in the big league and won in the money league. I don't know how I am supposed to win the championship against a player who has Zeke, Le'Veon, and DeMarco though. I guess I'll trot out my pathetic wide receivers and tight ends and hope that Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy can carry me to an upset victory.
Sorry you got beat JJ :( Looks like a Petey vs Spaulding final.
Congratulations to Pete and Spaulding for making it to MoFo Bowl IX! :) I'll try to have a quick write-up on here before too long, if holiday stuff doesn't get in the way.
Congrats Petey and Spaulding!
Few scattered record book details to illustrate just how bad the scoring's been across the league during the playoffs:
My score of 83.62 was the third-lowest in MoFo league playoff history
jiraffe's score was the fifth-lowest.
Pete's 98.76 points was the second-lowest WINNING playoff score...
...with the lowest of all time being Spaulding's victory last week!
Also, whether the champion is Pete or Spaulding, this will be the first time in league history a champion did not have a single week as the top scoring team during the regular season. If Spaulding wins, he'll set a new mark for lowest scoring rank for a champion (7th), and if Pete wins, he'll tie the existing mark (5th, by LT in 2009). This'll be only the second time someone outside of the top four has won it all, and just the third time someone out of the top two has.
So: the big game.
MoFo Bowl IX
-
Beantown Champs vs. Censored Clowns
Season Recap: Pete started so-so, reeled off seven straight wins, and then limped into the playoffs, not only in terms of losses, but point totals. Turns out he was ahead of the curve, as the league as a whole has put up some pretty ugly numbers since then.
Pete was 5th in points, but distributed them well, ending up with the #2 seed and a Bye. He did this in part because Andrew Luck had a huge MNF game for Spaulding, which caused Fabulous to lose...which saved Pete because it turns out he would've put up a very low total in week 14. So Spaulding saved Pete's season. And now he faces him. Dramatic, no?
Pete returns to the playoffs after a three-year absence. But in that fourth year, he won his only MoFo title.
Spaulding's in his second season, and he's made the playoffs both times, though it was a lot smoother last year when he went 10-3 and had the 3rd highest point total. This year it was 7-6 and the 7th highest, thanks in large part to some early draft busts. But both years he's gotten lots of value off of the waiver wire. The end result has been a team not designed for shootouts, but to weather lean times by avoiding bottoming out, and that's exactly what's been called for the last couple of weeks.
The Matchup: If Pete wins, Tyrod Taylor won't have been the worst QB on a championship team, but he'll be up there. With Bryant having a ho-hum season, Pete doesn't really have anyone who can take over a game, but other than QB there really aren't any significant weaknesses. He might get Gordon back this week (and has a GREAT matchup), Kelley's been a decent bet for a score, and Michael Thomas has been pretty reliable. Taylor's matchup is pretty good, too, and that might be the most important thing: when you have an iffy QB, that matchup can matter a lot. It's very easy for a crappy QB in a great matchup to toss up 20 points and essentially nullify your disadvantage at the position.
On Spaulding's side, pretty much everyone has okay matchups: not great, not bad. The most significant player might be Ty Montgomery, who exploded last week by basically doubling his season high in Chicago, thanks to some frigid weather, an injured Aaron Rodgers, and a concussed James Stark. Might be too much to ask for all that to come together again this week, but most years you get some late season RB named the starter who rampages for a couple of games and wins lots of people their leagues (ala Jerome Harrison). Montgomery could be that guy.
If I'm Spaulding, I'm most worried about Evans, who's put up poor totals two weeks in a row. I'm not sure if that's survivable again without another guy suddenly stepping up in a big way, and you hate to bet on that.
The projections have these two really close. My inkling is:
Prediction: If Gordon plays, I'll take Pete by a hair. Otherwise, Spaulding.
Captain Spaulding
12-21-16, 05:57 PM
I've already made one blunder this week. I could've sworn I put in for San Diego's defense against Cleveland this week, but apparently I wasn't paying close enough attention when I did it and instead picked up Pittsburgh, who plays Cleveland next week. If that ends up being the difference in why I lose, I'll be pretty annoyed with myself.
I was rooting for Beantown Champs Monday night since his team scares me less than Los Pollos Hermanos. Beantown Champs has exceeded expectations all year, though. In my post-draft analysis, I picked him to finish last, yet he finished the season as the second overall seed. A lot of that success is due to Melvin Gordon having an insanely good year. Needless to say, I feel much better about my chances this week if Gordon sits. Rob Kelley also scares me after seeing how well the Packers ran all over Chicago last Sunday.
My team is nothing special. I benefited from the glut of mediocrity that made up most of the league this year. However, considering I entered the season with AP and Langford as my starting RBs and dug myself an early hole at 1-4, I think I rebounded nicely to even make the playoffs. I feel like I've been playing on "Hard" difficulty all season, having to rely heavily on the waiver wire and choose a starting line-up from a pool of flex players. Like Yoda mentioned in his excellent write-ups, my team isn't a threat to score a ton of points, but as long as I make the right line-up decisions, I usually have a decent floor due to my depth. I've been the benefactor of some extraordinarily bad luck from my opponents these past two weeks. Hopefully that trend continues this week with Gordon unable to play. I think the Colts-Raiders game could turn into a shoot-out, so maybe Luck has a big game for me. And because I'm a glass-half-full kinda guy, I like to look at Mike Evan's recent slump as him saving up all those points for a monster game this week when I really need it. Fingers crossed.
Win or lose, though, this has been a fun, challenging season. :)
Well, Pete's in pretty good shape right now, thanks in large part to Tyrod Taylor. This part of the preview seems relevant:
Taylor's matchup is pretty good, too, and that might be the most important thing: when you have an iffy QB, that matchup can matter a lot. It's very easy for a crappy QB in a great matchup to toss up 20 points and essentially nullify your disadvantage at the position.
This has more than happened, with Taylor throwing up (and rushing up) a season-high 37 points. Huge. And though Lee (with 18) is the only other big total so far, he's had zero busts: everyone has at least 9 or so points, so far.
The toughest break is Adam Thielen's 38 points on Spaulding's bench. That's the killer thing about all that depth: pretty darn hard to start a guy like that, and right now, that total is almost exactly the difference in their projected point totals. Still a fair bit of football to be played, though.
Congratulations to Pete for becoming just the second owner in league history to win multiple titles! His last was in 2012:
28229
And congratulations to Spaulding as well for making such a deep run. :up:
Pete comes through. Stew over these all offseason, MoFos:
36598
36599
This easily was the flukiest FFB season ever. Really kills me Petes got 2 and Ive got none, but it shows at least it can be done! yay :(
Seriously though, good job Petey. ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ooyrmWgMH0
vBulletin® v3.8.0, Copyright ©2000-2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.