NH Primary

[matt72582]

I wanted to watch a movie, but I can't...

I won't exhale until Bernie Sanders (so I might die tonight)

First time in my life I was really for a candidate who had a chance. Nader didn't, but I'll never cast a pragmatic vote. If Hillary wins, we get right-wing politics.

[Yoda]

GOP: Early signals suggest Kasich could have a good night. "Good" meaning "2nd place with some clear separation from 3rd." I don't think he stands much chance of turning that into a real shot at the nomination, but it does up his odds of being someone's VP selection considerably, and it prolongs the race longer than it would if, say, Rubio took second.

Trump probably wins tonight. And before anyone freaks out, it's not that weird for factional candidates to win a state or two in a highly fractured field. He's got a hard ceiling on his support that's enough to take a state like New Hampshire, but there's no way he can keep that up when we're down to just a few candidates.

Dems: Sanders figures to romp. He has to, actually. Given how favorable this state is for him, even winning by 6-7 points would be a major disappointment. So we won't learn too much about the race tonight unless he only wins by a handful of percentage points, or puts up a massive victory. Otherwise, it'll be in line with all the long-term analysis.

Now, if Sanders is at least somewhat competitive in some place like South Carolina, which is next? Then we'll have to call this a race.

[Camo]

Wasn't aware the primary was tonight i thought there would be a longer gap between Iowa and New Hampshire. I haven't been really following this election, in 2008 and 2012 i watched most of the debates and followed the primaries, this time i have only watched the first Republican Debate and i was even aware of Iowa until it was finished.

[Camo]

Not sure if you were actually asking Yoda but yeah South Carolina and Washington are on the 20th, i was just looking at the page when i saw this thread.

Edit: Actually it is Nevada on the 20th for the Democrats i was looking at the Republicans and thought they both had the same schedule.

[Daniel M]

21 point win for Bernie :)

[Yoda]

Welp, massive pileup between 3rd and 5th. So if Rubio is going to pull this out, it's going to take at least a month to right the ship. Otherwise, it's Cruz/Trump down the stretch.

Still don't think Trump can win this, though, unless things keep breaking for him for the next two months, with all sorts of candidates staying in far longer than makes sense. But who knows. This election is pretty nuts on both sides right now. None of this (Sanders, Trump) seemed plausible a year ago.

[Slappydavis]

Somehow missed this topic when I was looking for a place to talk about Jeb.

Really interested in how S.C. comes together for Sanders. He's having trouble with racial minority groups, but there's a lot of outreach directed at just that. Carolina will see if he can pull that off in time.

Rubio's 3-2-1 plan didn't quite come together, and Cruz is going to be an issue (Kasich probably isn't, but honestly I think he'll persist for a while to collect the moderate vote and leverage. Definitely agree he'd work well as a 2nd slot on the ticket).

I'm just really surprised that so many establishment candidates are staying in. When Walker dropped out way back when, I thought it was a sign that we'd see the establishment start to rally around 1-2 candidates. But no other large figure really dropped out after him, and honestly I think he'd be right in the pack still if he had stayed (even if I dislike the guy).

[cricket]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/G3C9axGolf64o/200w.gif

[rauldc14]

All I have to say is thank goodness Walker is out. The fraud that is stealing tax money to pay for his failed campaign.

[matt72582]

Even though Sanders won by 22% pts, Hillary gets more delegates.... Rigged..

[neiba]

I never cared much for USA elections, but if this man defeats Clinton and Trump, the whole world has dodged a bullet!