Yoda
12-01-15, 11:28 AM
Thought I'd post the thread this week, since every year I like to do a little playoff seeding/bubble analysis.
First thing's first: Fabulous gets the #1 seed and a Bye. The latter is mathematical (he's two games up on the #3 team with one game left), the former is practical: to lose the #1 seed he'd have to lose, have Spaulding win, and Spaulding would have to outscore him by more than 83 points.
The other Bye is up in the air: Spaulding has a one game lead but Badger leads by three points. Spaulding's also a bigger favorite in his matchup, so it's probably like 75% that he takes this. But definitely not a sure thing.
Same kind of situation for the #3 seed: if Badger loses and I win, the point differential means I'll be the #3 seed. On the other hand, if Badger does win the Bye, Spaulding takes the #3 seed automatically. That's his floor.
I haven't technically clinched a playoff spot, but I'm in: the fact that two 7-5 teams are playing each other this week means only five teams can finish with more wins, and I'm not going to lose any points tiebreakers (this'll be my third scoring title). So I could finish anywhere from #3 to #6.
The winner of the TONGO-Pete (PlasticPads/Beantown) matchup is automatically in, but the loser might not be out: both have a points edge on Mike (TONGO's is pretty big, Pete's is about 10). Technically no 6-6 team has been eliminated yet, but the point differentials mean that Frightened Inmate's Milford Men and PW's Legion of Boom effectively are; seven teams already have 7 wins, which is their ceiling, which means they'd have to win tiebreakers against teams that have 100-200 more points. A hat tip to both.
jiraffe's Los Pollos Hermanos, on the other hand, has more points than both Pete and Mike, and he's 24 behind TONGO (tough, but doable). His most likely path to the playoffs is that he wins, TONGO beats Pete, and Mike's Angels lose. If he does that without giving up his ~9 point lead over Pete, he's in.
Normally I'd say that the top six teams in the standings right now are still the most likely six teams to make it, but Mike is playing LT's Badgers, who haven't been setting their lineups and are looking likely to go winless, so he's almost guaranteed that win. So I think there's a really good chance the top five teams are in, with Mike stealing the 6th spot away from Pete. If Pete pulls off the upset over TONGO, however, he'll be in, and TONGO probably misses out entirely.
My Playoff Seeding Prediction::
#1. Fabulous
#2. Spaulding
#3. Badger
#4. Yoda
#5. TONGO
#6. Sedai
Most Likely Dramatic Thing If A Dramatic Thing Happens: TONGO loses, allowing both Mike and Pete in.
First thing's first: Fabulous gets the #1 seed and a Bye. The latter is mathematical (he's two games up on the #3 team with one game left), the former is practical: to lose the #1 seed he'd have to lose, have Spaulding win, and Spaulding would have to outscore him by more than 83 points.
The other Bye is up in the air: Spaulding has a one game lead but Badger leads by three points. Spaulding's also a bigger favorite in his matchup, so it's probably like 75% that he takes this. But definitely not a sure thing.
Same kind of situation for the #3 seed: if Badger loses and I win, the point differential means I'll be the #3 seed. On the other hand, if Badger does win the Bye, Spaulding takes the #3 seed automatically. That's his floor.
I haven't technically clinched a playoff spot, but I'm in: the fact that two 7-5 teams are playing each other this week means only five teams can finish with more wins, and I'm not going to lose any points tiebreakers (this'll be my third scoring title). So I could finish anywhere from #3 to #6.
The winner of the TONGO-Pete (PlasticPads/Beantown) matchup is automatically in, but the loser might not be out: both have a points edge on Mike (TONGO's is pretty big, Pete's is about 10). Technically no 6-6 team has been eliminated yet, but the point differentials mean that Frightened Inmate's Milford Men and PW's Legion of Boom effectively are; seven teams already have 7 wins, which is their ceiling, which means they'd have to win tiebreakers against teams that have 100-200 more points. A hat tip to both.
jiraffe's Los Pollos Hermanos, on the other hand, has more points than both Pete and Mike, and he's 24 behind TONGO (tough, but doable). His most likely path to the playoffs is that he wins, TONGO beats Pete, and Mike's Angels lose. If he does that without giving up his ~9 point lead over Pete, he's in.
Normally I'd say that the top six teams in the standings right now are still the most likely six teams to make it, but Mike is playing LT's Badgers, who haven't been setting their lineups and are looking likely to go winless, so he's almost guaranteed that win. So I think there's a really good chance the top five teams are in, with Mike stealing the 6th spot away from Pete. If Pete pulls off the upset over TONGO, however, he'll be in, and TONGO probably misses out entirely.
My Playoff Seeding Prediction::
#1. Fabulous
#2. Spaulding
#3. Badger
#4. Yoda
#5. TONGO
#6. Sedai
Most Likely Dramatic Thing If A Dramatic Thing Happens: TONGO loses, allowing both Mike and Pete in.