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View Full Version : MoFo Fantasy Football 2012 - Week 4


Yoda
09-27-12, 02:33 PM
Well, the refs are back, so the toothless boycott everyone was saying they'd engage in need not go forward. Yay. Our long national nightmare is over.



11 Angry Men (2-1) vs. RG3scompany (2-1)
As confident as I was about winning last week, that's how ambivalent I am about this one. Sounds like Spiller's going to be fine (thank goodness), but he'll probably miss this one game to be on the safe side. No biggie, except that the Steelers are on a bye, which means no Mike Wallace. Which means Pierre Thomas gets to play. Not that that's so scary; he's put up 18 and 10 points the last two weeks. But Adam's not missing anyone important, and Mathews is back as of last week. Romo's got a tough matchup, too, though half the time it seems like he plays up or down to his level of competition.

But I think out of guys like Marshall, RGII, Gore and Daniels, Adam's got to have a couple of no-shows at some point. If it's one of those guys, he probably wins. If it's two or more, I probably do.

Oh, also, I'll bet at Adam's for a good chunk of the day, so we can trash talk each other in person. Yay.

PREDICTION: I'll pick me, but just barely.


Liquor And Whores (3-0) vs. Sookie's Suckers (2-1)
PW's the only undefeated team left, and it's hard to imagine that ending. Sookie's struggling to replace Hernandez at TE, and she went all-in on Pats, which hasn't been great so far. Brady's been good-but-not-great, Nelson's been so-so, and Ridley's a riddle that probably can't be answered every week.

That PW's 3-0 with Chris Johnson in his lineup is mildly amazing. He's gotten good production out of his WRs, though, and has the lowest Points Against by almost 30. I think both continue this week. I don't think he puts up a great total, but I don't think LT puts up much of a fight, which means:

PREDICTION: PW.


Team Zissou (2-1) vs. Dillon Panthers (1-2)
Asking how Fiscal's gonna do is pretty much the same as asking how the Falcons will. And they look pretty good so far, and should look good against Carolina this week, too. Jones vanished in week 2 but looked good again in week 3, so there's some uncertainty there in an Atlanta offense with plenty of weapons (I always know, because I've got the other two!). The bigger problem, though, is that Forte looks like he might play, but perhaps not overwhelmingly, and Bush is kind of banged up. So what to do? Roll with them both, or pick one and take your chances? Tough call. To make matters worse, Bradshaw's back and starting, so while Andre Brown should play a fair bit, it's a bit of a gamble on just how much.

TONGO, meanwhile, is still relying on the Denver offense, and that might be a good bet against Oakland this week. Roethlisberger picked them apart easily, and you have to assume Peyton's going to be able to, too. Decker saw an increase in work, too. I think that'll be enough.

PREDICTION: TONGO.


The Replicants (0-3) vs. Wyld Stallyns (1-2)
Mike's start over the previous four years: 3-0, 3-0, 0-3, 2-1. He made the playoffs in all those years except for the 0-3 one (and even then he was still 6-7!), but he's 0-3 this year, and is less than a point ahead of Dusty for the second-lowest total. But he's also had the second highest points against, which makes sense because his roster looks decent. But he's gotten merely solid (rather than fantastic) production out of most of his big names: McCoy, Gronk, and Bryant. None have been flops, but neither have they justified their draft day value. So there's your problem, right there. *spits chewing tobacco and points to brake rotors*

On the other side, Sleezy has crazy firepower on paper (and I hasten to add that Firepower on Paper would be a great name for a band), but Rodgers has shockingly pumpkined over the first few weeks, and whether or not he bounces back (and if so, how much) is pretty much the #1 fantasy football story of the year thus far. But he gets New Orleans this week, so this is a prime opportunity to bust out. And Welker some an encouraging uptick in activity last week, so perhaps he can put those worries behind him as well, to be replaced by entirely new ones about him being traded.

He'll have a tough call to make with Reggie Bush banged up, and that'll probably matter a lot, because Yahoo has these two withint 0.12 of one another. Yowza.

PREDICTION: Sleezy, who with Sproles and Rodgers could benefit from a NO-GB shootout.


show me the money (0-3) vs. Beantown Champs (2-1)
Dusty's RB situation is in tatters, but he should be able to use Jennings again this week, which'll allow him to get Olsen out of his Flex (even though he's been pretty good).

Pete, meanwhile, is running the likes of Jeremy Kerley out there, but he's got fewer question marks. The projection points will narrow when Dusty gets in a new D in there and probably swaps in Ryan Williams for one of the RBs, but that's still a lot to overcome, and I don't think the WRs can pick up all that slack each week.

PREDICTION: Pete.


Big Damn Heroes (2-1) vs. I Be Weave (1-2)
Dex's team is pretty tough to get a read on. Andre had a huge opener, flopped in week 2, and then had a decent total that pretty much came from a single play at the start of week 3. Megatron, meanwhile, was solid the first couple of weeks but scored his first TD in week 3. And if you can predict what Michael Vick will do in a given day within any reasonable margin of error, you're a better man than I.

The other half of Dex's lineup is the exact opposite; solid if unsexy guys like the Law Firm and Cedric Benson, who seem destined to get you 10-12 points most weeks, rarely much less, and rarely a lot more.

He's got a touch matchup this week in Jay, who doesn't really have any blatant holes or huge question marks in his lineup, except for maybe DeSean Jackson, who's been decent so far. Easy to imagine all this analysis falling by the wayside if Arian Foster destroys the Titans, as he seems likely to do.

PREDICTION: Jay.





First game's tonight; BAL-CLE.

Sedai
09-27-12, 03:49 PM
Sweet - Chris didn't pick me this week - looks like a win for me! ;)

DexterRiley
09-27-12, 08:54 PM
posted this early this morning in the shoutbox, but for those not in the mood to wade through :

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8311/8028961947_d1aee41e47_z.jpg

DexterRiley
09-27-12, 08:56 PM
Also Yayyyyy for Yoda picken Jay. Thats totally the right call.

..and i caved in and started Flacco tonight.

Powdered Water
09-27-12, 10:11 PM
Sucker.

DexterRiley
09-28-12, 12:59 AM
I'm perfectly comfortable with Flacco and his 24 and change. Especially as he didnt sling a single ball to Pitta.

:D

Yoda
09-28-12, 12:09 PM
Yeesh, now it's looking like 50-50 that Spiller will play anyway! Crazy. If he's active, he's clearly at the point where I have to start him. Thank goodness he's playing in one of the early games.

TONGO
09-28-12, 04:01 PM
Yeesh, now it's looking like 50-50 that Spiller will play anyway! Crazy. If he's active, he's clearly at the point where I have to start him. Thank goodness he's playing in one of the early games.

Got a question for ya cause I have Spiller in an 8 team PPR league. I also have DeMarco Morray, Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, and Alfred Morris. Would CJ Spiller & Charles be the best play?

Yoda
09-28-12, 04:10 PM
I think you'd have to go with McFadden, but only because of the injury, which might limit him a little bit. Even Spiller seeing a reduced workload is a borderline top 10 guy, I think (especially in PPR), but I'd go McFadden in that scenario.

Man, 8 team leagues are goofy. I played in one last year. Never again.

TONGO
09-28-12, 10:39 PM
Fred Jacksons been cleared to play too. So I agree McFadden over Spiller. 8 team leagues suck. Truly, I wasnt even present at the draft and you still end up with a "horn of plenty" of talent.

Yoda
09-29-12, 03:13 PM
Well, Nicks is out again, and Wallace is on Bye, so even though I've got lots of depth long-term, this week I'm gonna have to duct-tape a win together.

I snagged Barden, who had a big week with Nicks out last week. And Spiller looks 50/50 to play, in which case I'm pretty sure I'd have to play him over Thomas on upside alone, regardless of the circumstances. Definitely shorthanded this week.

I kinda like these kinds of weeks. They're a nice challenge and it can feel quite good to react well to the hurdles and piece together a win during a tough week. We'll see. I'll be with Adam for most of the day, too.

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 12:24 PM
Setting my lineup has been a bitch and a half this week.

Turner in Turner out
Williams in Williams out.

Especially the Mike Williams,,i mean the Redskin Defense is a wicked opportunity for goodness, even if its just another TD without solid yardage numbers.

Which is suppose, at the end of the day prompted the double TE lineup.

I just think the Vikes are gonna be behind all day long, and thus Rudolph has the better opportunity to amass 60+ yards. He's the second , if not the only viable option after Harvin.

So in closing , ty WaWa* for making the case for TE to be included in the Flex pre-season.


(if this blows up in my face, i reserve the right to rescind :D )

upStomp
09-30-12, 12:30 PM
Yahoo listing Nate Kaeding as "Questionable" (projected 8 and change) while in the player notes acknowledging that he's out today. Good thing I took a closer look. Yikes!

TONGO
09-30-12, 12:30 PM
On my plate are my weekly waffles, should I sit McGahee or Alf Morris? Pretty sure Maclin, Steve Smith, and Decker will be sure things. Yes Yoda if you have an opinion Id like to hear it ;) Currently leaning toward sitting McGahee as he had to leave his game last week.

Yoda
09-30-12, 12:36 PM
I'd lean towards him, too. Tampa Bay's a significantly better run defense (so far, at least) than Oakland.

TONGO
09-30-12, 12:41 PM
Er, so you think sitting Morris would be better to sit since hes up against a tougher run defense?

Yoda
09-30-12, 12:43 PM
Yup. It's close to a toss-up for me, so that'd be the tiebreaker. Also, while McGahee's not a huge pass catcher or anything, Morris has caught literally zero passes so far, so there's that.

Beyond that, I'd go McGahee if I wanted a safter, modest total, and maybe Morris if I felt like I needed a bigger risk/reward proposition. Because with Washington there's always that 10% chance that, hey look, some other guy's starting for no reason all of a sudden. I don't think that'll happen this week, but it has to be considered.

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 12:44 PM
http://imageshack.us/a/img203/815/tongosdilemma.jpg

Yoda
09-30-12, 12:48 PM
Well, Spiller's active after all. Yowza. Somebody give the Buffalo training staff a raise.

Unfortunately, he's probably going to be used a little more sparingly this week, so that leaves me to decide between him and P. Thomas, who's probably a little safer. But Spiller's upside is insane and he's been breaking lots of big plays, so even a "let's ease him back in after the injury" type game where his carries are scaled back has a lot of potential. I think I've gotta roll with him.

TONGO
09-30-12, 12:50 PM
AUGH! The vice closes even further! Yoda says start McGahee, website says start Morris..........what does the cat say?

Yoda
09-30-12, 12:53 PM
The website says 52% to 48%, which is pretty much a statistical tie. I'd chalk that up as a coin flip rather than an actual preference.

TONGO
09-30-12, 12:57 PM
Well, Spiller's active after all. Yowza. Somebody give the Buffalo training staff a raise.

Unfortunately, he's probably going to be used a little more sparingly this week, so that leaves me to decide between him and P. Thomas, who's probably a little safer. But Spiller's upside is insane and he's been breaking lots of big plays, so even a "let's ease him back in after the injury" type game where his carries are scaled back has a lot of potential. I think I've gotta roll with him.

Gutsy, but sound. Even though Thomas is the sure starter, the fact he is on the Saints means theres no guarantee of touches or action.

Yoda
09-30-12, 01:01 PM
Yeah, "starter" means less and less, I think. It's a little nudge here or there, at most, I think.

It's definitely a risk given how fast Spiller's come back, but the guy just doesn't need that many plays to break one. Pierre Thomas has actually been plenty flex-worthy, which has been a pleasant surprise, but I think with Wallace and Nicks both out this week I should embrace the risk and take the upside.

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 01:01 PM
The website says 52% to 48%, which is pretty much a statistical tie. I'd chalk that up as a coin flip rather than an actual preference.

absolutely. the actual number doesnt matter so much as the arguments used by the columnists that are leaning one way or the other.

its a fun tool though.

Yoda
09-30-12, 05:12 PM
Looks like Adam is gonna beat me, thanks largely to a positively stupid 29 points out of the SF defense. Meh.

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 05:52 PM
Setting my lineup has been a bitch and a half this week.

Turner in Turner out
Williams in Williams out.

Especially the Mike Williams,,i mean the Redskin Defense is a wicked opportunity for goodness, even if its just another TD without solid yardage numbers.

Which is suppose, at the end of the day prompted the double TE lineup.

I just think the Vikes are gonna be behind all day long, and thus Rudolph has the better opportunity to amass 60+ yards. He's the second , if not the only viable option after Harvin.

So in closing , ty WaWa* for making the case for TE to be included in the Flex pre-season.


(if this blows up in my face, i reserve the right to rescind :D )


http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/4/2009/07/Blow-up-in-face_fireworks.jpg


TE Clearly has no business being in the flex.

:D

TONGO
09-30-12, 07:23 PM
AGH! I slotted Morris at the last minute, and McGahees killin it right now on my pine! My own fault, but my reasonings were I was dubious how long Willis would play since he went out hurt last week. Alf aint doin bad, but those catches McGahee gets make an extra 10 point difference. I think Ill win this week either way.

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 07:54 PM
Mike Williams of the Bucs is quietly putting together a decent season.

Powdered Water
09-30-12, 08:41 PM
Of course he is. He no longer plays for my fantasy team. ;)

Powdered Water
09-30-12, 09:26 PM
I expect LT will be along shortly to pile on to my altogether ****** day of football watching with a witty and to-the-point jab at my fantasy failings. You go girl!

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 09:37 PM
LT was so confidant she rolled with Antonio Brown on a bye.

badassery 101

Yoda
09-30-12, 09:37 PM
Oh, she's a trash talker, alright, but selectively. She's totally MIA when she's losing, but all over this mess when she's winning. ;)

Yoda
09-30-12, 09:37 PM
LT was so confidant she rolled with Antonio Brown on a bye.

badassery 101
No, she sat 'im.

Powdered Water
09-30-12, 10:20 PM
Yeah she benched the guy literally 10 seconds before kickoff and of course, the guy sign SIGNED OFF THE WAIVER WIRE (I'm shouting that out loud because of how ridiculous it is) scored almost 25 big damn points. With Brady and Ridley... ugh.

Sedai
09-30-12, 10:36 PM
Booo

:bawling:

Powdered Water
09-30-12, 10:48 PM
You mean, BOOO LT? Yes, I agree. Boo indeed. :yup:

DexterRiley
09-30-12, 10:50 PM
Im thinking the other LT has to be considering unretiring.

Sedai
10-01-12, 12:14 AM
LT's team went off like a bomb this week.

LTIZZY
10-01-12, 11:32 PM
Muahahahahaahaha BITCHES!!!!!

I am thinking I love my team this year! I got lucky right before the game on Sunday with snagging Roberts.

Have I mentioned I am a gloater and a very very sore losah?

rauldc14
10-03-12, 03:15 PM
my team is terrible. Realistically, I probably could go 0-13.

Sedai
10-03-12, 03:41 PM
Yeah, I feel the same. Alas, I shall play each week as if it was the finals, like usual. ;)

Luckily I am 3-1 in my other league!

LT continues to taunt me each night, which I presume will continue until the playoffs, at which point she will double her efforts. ;)

rauldc14
10-03-12, 05:04 PM
Im 4-0 in one of my money leagues, so I cant feel too bad