MoFo Fantasy Football 2012 - The Regular Season

[Yoda]

Figured we should have a thread for this, since otherwise all the random musings will end up in the Trading Block thread.

First game is September 5th, a Wednesday; other games are the following weekend. So, two weeks until the first big rush of Week 1 games, and a week and a half until the first one.

Anyway, I just noticed something funny: my team this year is a mix of my team the last two years. Two years ago I had Romo, MJD, and Wallace. Last year I had Nicks and White. So five of my seven starters this year I had in one of the last two years.

[Yoda]

By the way, the only people I have down for the DVD thingy are myself, Dex, PW, and Fiscal. Lemme know if I missed anyone. Normally we wouldn't let people get in on this post-draft, but I'm guessing all four of us would be okay with that.

[TONGO]

Im in on the DVD.

General announcement that my internets going kaput starting tomorrow. :sick: Ill try and use the libraries to check on things, but there wont be any set schedule for it tbh. Just in case I dont slot Peyton & McGahee in time, Ive slotted Fitz & Helu .

[Fiscal]

I'm fine with whoever getting in on the DVD deal up until week 1 of football.

[Sedai]

IN on the DVD trade!

[Yoda]

Cool. That's me, Seds, TONGO, Fiscal, Dex, and PW, then, unless anyone else pipes in.

[Powdered Water]

I am ready for the football.

[rauldc14]

I am in. Granted that I am let in (yes, my bad sorry I know)

[Yoda]

Cool with me.

[TONGO]

LOL! Just publicly stating I wont send a DVD to Dustin as it took waaaay too long, and alot of nagging, to get him to fulfill the DVD award previously. Everyone else is cool.

[rauldc14]

LOL! Just publicly stating I wont send a DVD to TONGO as he is a dousche to me. Everyone else is cool.

[Fiscal]

Oh, you two.

[Yoda]

Just for fun, I calculated everyone's starting lineup points based on Yahoo's projections. I had to make a few assumptions here and there, but you get the idea:


show me the money! (2,079)
The Replicants (2,070)
11 Angry Men (2,067)
Dextruction (2,062)
Beantown Champs (2,055)
Wyld Stallyns (2,043)
Big Damn Heroes (2,032)
Sookie's Suckers (2,029)
Liquor And Whores (2,006)
Team Zissou (2,000)
Mindsculptors (1,941)
Dillon Panthers (1,892)

They've actually updated these since, but it looks like they've only tweaked them here and there. They will, of course, end up being horrendously wrong, and most of the teams aren't separated by more than the equivalent of maybe 6 points a week, so whatevs. Just thought it might be interesting. And it'll probably be fun to point and laugh at the projections at the end of the year.

[Yoda]

One fun thing we can do with these data is determine what Yahoo thinks is above or below average for a given position. There's a little issue with this, in that people can slot the guy who should be their WR2 in their Flex, or what have you, but you get the basic idea.

The biggest point difference between highest and lowest starter is at QB, no surprise there, followed by RB1. The smallest (not counting DEF or K) is at RB2, which is surprising. But again, this is a product partly of how each lineup is constructed (or will be, presumably), so there's some guesswork.

It's a nice way at seeing where Yahoo thinks each time is above or below average. Again, it'll look like bunk by season's end, but hey, this is what happens when you draft a couple of weeks before any games get played: you overanalyze what little data you have.

[Yoda]

Oh, also: MAURICE JONES-DREW IS IN CAMP. Bullet dodged. Makes him a pretty good value at #9 after all, thank goodness.

[DexterRiley]

Oh, also: MAURICE JONES-DREW IS IN CAMP. Bullet dodged. Makes him a pretty good value at #9 after all, thank goodness.

or hes gold teef 2012 edition.

I think will be one or the other, not much middle ground.

[Yoda]

Ah, but Marshawn Lynch has gold teef, too. So he's either one gold teef or another. :D

That said, even Chris Johnson's 2012 numbers aren't that bad; #9 among RBs in this format, and only 7 points from being 7th. I could probably live with that.

[DexterRiley]

overall numbers are funny though. they dont take into account the ofers- single digit pts while he's in your starting lineup, to the ridonkelous day he ends up having against a sick defense while on your bench.

If this was Roto, id agree with you totally. But erm it isnt.

[Yoda]

True, but then, I dunno how to determine which is more valuable. I know we all want consistency because we hate the swings, but that's more an emotional objection. One which I absolutely share. I know I'd take 15 points a week more than 0 one week and 30 the next, but I actually have no idea which is more beneficial. I assume it's random, because it depends on which weeks end up being close. Sometimes you need the big game, and sometimes you just need 10 out of your stud, and there's no way to know which is which.

I wonder if that's something to exploit, even; the fact that almost every owner wants consistency over the boom/bust guys, even though it's hard to say if there's any empirical reason to prefer them. Not that I necessarily have the stomach to field a bunch of those guys. :D

[DexterRiley]

While its awesome that MJD is back, and i think fair to assume in reasonably good shape, the interesting factor remains the same. How many weeks will it take for him to get his game legs, and are you willing to slot him in week in week out regardless of matchup as befitting a 1st round selection.

Week 1 could be a nightmare, especially if Jennings is doing well, Touch wise. Again its interesting.

[Yoda]

Definitely. I'm confident that he'll be back to normal quickly, but for week 1 it involves a ton of guesswork. I guess a lot'll depend on how he looks in camp, so hopefully we'll get some useful reports on that front. But even if we do, it seems likely we'll go into week 1 with Jennings ostensibly starting, and not really knowing how that will translate into workload.

My potential replacement is Pierre Thomas. I'm definitely comfortable slotting him in, but as of now it'd probably take some very negative reports between today and gameday to make me want to keep him out. I'm thinking/hoping a week in training camp should be enough to ensure that MJD gets at least half the workload, which is enough for me to stick with him.

I think. ;)

[DexterRiley]

Relyen on Frenchy. hmmm are you sure you're republican.

:laugh:

[TONGO]

Wrong thread