View Full Version : MoFo Fantasy Football 2011 - The Playoffs
So, you know how before, it was off? Well, now it's not off any more. It's ON. On being the opposite of off, you see. And "it" being the thing that is on.
Let's do this. This being "it."
Everyone understand? Good.
The No Name Gang (8-5) vs. Dextruction (8-5)
I'm not sure if there's such a thing as "peaking at the right time" in fantasy, but if there is, raul would be doing it. The big question is going to be the RBs; Lynch has come out of nowhere and become a top 10 option in the second half of the season, and Stewart has come out of even more no-where-er to put up starter-esque totals. Lynch doesn't figure to pumpkin this week, playing St. Louis, but Atlanta's great against the run, so Stewart might. Rodgers is still unpumpkinable, but Finley and Jennings cap each other's potential most weeks, and Wayne is terrifying to his owners rather than his opponents this year and up against a good pass defense. raul will go as far as these guys let him. The three Packers tend to assure that he almost never has a terrible total (only one sub-99 performance during the regular season), so the real question is what he gets out of the question-markier types.
His high floor might be plenty, though, regardless of who comes through, because Dex is going to be without Matt Forte and Andre Johnson, which is pretty much killer. He's got Barber to replace Forte, and Rivers showed some real signs of life last week, but he doesn't have a lot of margin. He'll be counting on Calvin to have his first big game in a month (he's been servicable but not stellar over the last four games), and on Laurent Robinson not to suffer too much from Miles Austin's return. He really needs San Diego to mandhandle Buffalo to have a chance. Just like raul-Badger was sort of like Packers-Falcons earlier in the year, this matchup is kind of like Packers-Chargers.
An upset would not shock me, and I might have gone differently if not for the Forte/Johnson injuries, but those are probably too much to overcome given that the guys on the other side of the field are completely healthy at the moment.
PREDICTION: The Gang wins and setups up a Packers-Pats matchup with Jay after his Bye.
Team Zissou (7-6) vs. The Replicants (9-4)
Fiscal's squad was the highest-scoring team this year and the fourth-best of all time, averaging 126.54 points, but some uneven performances and third-highest Points Against total makes him 7-6 and the most dangerous #6 seed you can conceive of, making my #1 seed a bit of a boobie prize. Yes, I said boobie. Commence to giggling.
As Seds observed not long ago, the matchups don't favor him this week, and what looked like a strength early in the year (WR) is suddenly a potential hole, with DeSean Jackson and Dwayne Bowe both struggling with QB issues and erratic play. Bowe's situation isn't going to get any better, but Jackson's should with Vick likely playing this week. Still, he's a head case, it seems, and as liable to go off for 5 as easily as 25. Brees hasn't scored less than 17 points all year and McCoy has been stellar, but the WRs are iffy, and Mike is playing Rushing Roulette with Green-Ellis and the Patriots.
On the other side, Fiscal is not without a chink or two; Jordy Nelson has been fantastic, but probably peaked a few weeks ago, Lloyd caught just one pass last week, Olsen has been terrible lately, and Murray was very pedestrian, getting only a bit more work than Felix Jones. And Stafford, though he's been putting up numbers, seems to do an awful lot of it in garbage time. Rice and MJD, however, are bedrocks, and both have been running well as of late.
All in all, Fiscal has fewer question marks, and just as many foundation guys. I think this matchup has the potential be closer than Yahoo does, but I think all three RBs top double digits, and I think Lloyd does the same, and I don't think Seds can afford more than maybe one no-show this week out of the four guys he's counting on.
PREDICTION: It just might be the start of a new Fiscal Year.
Iffin' I'm right, it'll be raul vs. Jay and Fiscal vs. me next week. Otherwise, the only player Jay can't play next week is Fiscal, and the only player I can't play next week is raul.
I'd watch the question mark guys' stat lines throughout the day. The could-go-either-way types are usually the ones that tell us the most about how the matchup's really going.
Best of luck, gentlemen.
By the by, three of the playoff teams opted into the DVD pact thing this year: myself, Sedai, and Dex. The other five people rooting against all three of us, no doubt, are Sleezy, TONGO, 7th, LT, and PW. You guys have a 50-50 shot of being off the hook.
I though I was in the DVD thing. If not, is it too late?
I'll go back and double-check, but it's not in my little file thingy.
I'd be okay with letting you in, but you'd have to get everyone else who said yes to agree, since it's obviously a much better wager for someone when they've already made the playoffs.
Awesome write-up! As you said, it's all about my WRs. If they do well, I can win it, but if they don't, I really have no chance.
Also, Pete mentioned he hopes I win so he doesn't have to mail a DVD. Pretty sure he was in on that from the start, yes?
Don't have him listed, either. I'll go back and check the sign-up thread but I think several people who probably intended to participate (based on their enthusiasm for it the year before) never actually said so.
Ah, well, if he didn't join, I am sure he won't be all broken up about it, but he did mention that last week.
upStomp
12-08-11, 04:26 PM
I have to admit, I'm looking forward to a weekend where I don't have to worry about FFB. It stresses me out way more than it should. I thought that my tongue-in-cheek drafting strategy this season would keep me from caring too much. Alas, my strategy netted me a strong showing right out of the gate, but my stress level was right back to where I didn't want it to be after my first loss. And now I'm looking at my best MoFo season yet.
Can't I catch a break? :dizzy:
Co-sign. It's a mix of fun and stress, and they feed into each other. But every year I go through the same process: excitement, then a little bit of sadness when I realize we're only a few weeks away from the playoffs, and then a feeling of relief that it's almost over. Hopefully a feeling of accomplishment accompanies this, but whether or not it does I'm usually ready for it to be over at about the same time it's ending.
I feel like the floor of a NY taxi cab.
DexterRiley
12-08-11, 08:42 PM
I gotta admit im bummed out a bit about FF these days, which is a weird predicament as a month or so ago i was preparing a roster that would be as close to unbeatable come playoffs as possible.
Losing Forte on the eve his cruel sauce indeed. On the other hand, it gives me an excuse to post a classic Bill Murray rant/motivational speech that sums up my situation kinda nicely.
Insert "Rauld" for "Mohawk" for best results.
:D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3S_k1dRbXY
Murray clearly channelled this when he improvved the motivation bit from Stripes.
I would have been the only person with 9 wins if not for that damn stat correction. That tossed everything into the toilet!
Which stat correction? Did Jay flip some game a few weeks back that I've already forgotten about?
Not sure what I think about this week. A Bye in MoFo, I'm a big favorite in one league, a moderate favorite in another (PPR Jungle), and a slight favorite in the third. That last one is huh-ooge, because I'm missing both Andre and McFadden this week and both figure to come back next week. So it might be all or nothing: if I can eke out a win, I'll be bringing a very formidable lineup over the last two.
Anyway, don't forget what we're playing for, MoFos:
http://www.movieforums.com/upload/trophy.jpg
Oh, my bad, I am still thinking like it was last week's standings before I played Jay. You would have lost if not for the stat correction (when you played Petey) and I would have been the only 9-game winner at that point.
To the folks that are in on the DVD, ill wager two DVDs if you let me in :D
I have no issues with it, man. :)
But I hope all the people on your team catch fire today.
2-1 odds to make up for the playoff thing, eh? Works for me.
upStomp
12-09-11, 04:02 PM
I have no problem with it, though I don't have a dog in that particular hunt.
DexterRiley
12-09-11, 07:51 PM
To the folks that are in on the DVD, ill wager two DVDs if you let me in :D
im cool with that.
but that doesnt mean 2 bare bones bargoon binners sir.
:laugh:
It's all or nothing by 4PM for ol' Sedai today!
At least there won't be a lot of tension, most likely.
Meanwhile, I've got some ridiculously hard choices at WR in what figures to be my closest matchup, complicated by all sorts of quasi-injuries and different game start times. It's pretty might a permutative nightmare.
Well Mr Permutative theres some good news, Maclin is active ;)
Well, it won't matter in this league, and I'm not sure I'm playing him in the other one. That late week downgrade to Questionable makes me very, very nervous. It's easy to imagine him having a decent day, but just as easy to imagine him catching a pass or two and/or coming out early.
Normally I'd play someone safer, but my "safer" guys are guys like Laurent Robinson and Brandon Lloyd (who might have a third-string QB throwing to him). Meh. And what's worse, Maclin plays at 1:00, Robinson at 8:20 tonight, and Lloyd tomorrow. That's a ridiculous number of variables to consider.
DexterRiley
12-11-11, 01:37 PM
yeah im somewhat lucky in that my 2 viable flex options are both playing tonite at 8:20. The crappy part being the one thats been performing best is of course now banged up.
basically i need phil rivers to play lights out, and Aaron Rodgers to get the flu to have a chance this week.
Vick to Jackson for a 34 yard TD. Huge for Seds. Remember: it's those could-go-either-way guys that usually matter in a given week, and Jackson was definitely one of those guys for Mike. Big, big play. But he'll need more of them, because Fiscal's squad has started quite strong.
Meanwhile, Dex is still waiting on Calvin to do something, but he's still in better shape than when he started, because all of Dustin's question mark guys (Wayne, Jones, Stewart) playing so far have combined for less than 6 points in the first half. Dex's best hope, injuries or not, was always those guys reverting to form. Let's see if it continues.
Well, as good as that Jackson TD might have been for Seds, it might not matter; Fiscal just got another TD from Rice, and Brees has had a very lackluster first half. All winnable scenarios for Mike involve Brees putting up at least decent numbers.
McCoy, however, has 20 already. But Mike needs a couple dozen up after the 1:00 games, and he's a couple dozen down. At least one Brees-to-Moore connection is probably necessary here.
If Mike loses, I "get" to play Fiscal as the #6 seed next week. It's entirely plausible being the #1 seed instead of the #2 ends up being a death sentence that flips the outcome this year.
With another 155 yards and 2 more TDs today, I propose we create a new word for the Patriot tight end:
Regronkulus.
Seds with a big surge in the second half to give himself a small chance at pulling this thing out. Wouldn't bet on him or anything, but he's up 14. Fiscal will have Murray, Nelson and Gould going after, so ideally he'll want 30-40, but if he can get that up to 20+ he'll at least be in the real of possibility. Especially if there's an injury.
He's got two players in the red zone right now, too...
Meanwhile, raul's players are still going awfully slow, but Calvin's having a pretty bad game, so I'm not sure if Dex'll be able to capitalize.
Oof, as I was typing that MJD scored his third TD of the game. Huge blow to Seds' chances.
Julio Jones with a huge TD catch, and Calvin still at just 7 points.
Seds' 14 point lead has been whittled down to just 3. He'll need to make up pretty much all of that to have any real chance, and even then he'll probably need an injury.
MJD with his fourth touchdown of the game. Wow.
That's 43.6 points in PPR, and that'll do it for Mike, he's going to put up a very solid 121 points or so, but against the wrong opponent at the wrong time.
Get it out all outta your system, Fiscal, so there's nothing left when we go at it next week.
http://ucla.ocregister.com/files/2011/02/maurice-jones-drew.jpg
Thomas learned to catch in the fourth quarter, Prater can kick a football half the fields length, and Marion Barber cant stay inbounds. Wild series of events, Denver sure knows how to play crazy comebacks. Even if it feels like they are taking a deficit early on to put on a show in the 4th.
Yeah, I didn't think it was going to happen again; I really didn't. I mean, they were down 10 points with just over 2 minutes left to play. It's hysterical; this was a total freak show two weeks ago...and now it's happened two more times. I literally laughed out loud while watching the game.
Tebow was night-and-day again. Terrible early on, at one point failing to complete 11 straight passes. Then later, completing 7 in a row in the 4th. I'll bet that's never happened before in the same game.
Dude is relentlessly entertaining, if nothing else. Clearly there's something going on here, though there's some crazy luck as well. It'll be interesting to see how much of each is contributing to this over time, though it's already happening often enough that it's clearly not just the latter. I'm pretty sure that he's not incredible and he's not terrible, but where he falls in between is difficult to say. He doesn't fit our conceptions--statistically or aesthetically--which makes him difficult to grade.
However that bears out, it's ridiculously fun to watch right now.
DexterRiley
12-11-11, 09:16 PM
Marion za Barbarion had a shatty real world football day, thankfully i only give a hoot about the fantasy.
thanks broski
DexterRiley
12-11-11, 09:23 PM
Yeah, I didn't think it was going to happen again; I really didn't. I mean, they were down 10 points with just over 2 minutes left to play. It's hysterical; this was a total freak show two weeks ago...and now it's happened two more times. I literally laughed out loud while watching the game.
Tebow was night-and-day again. Terrible early on, at one point failing to complete 11 straight passes. Then later, completing 7 in a row in the 4th. I'll bet that's never happened before in the same game.
Dude is relentlessly entertaining, if nothing else. Clearly there's something going on here, though there's some crazy luck as well. It'll be interesting to see how much of each is contributing to this over time, though it's already happening often enough that it's clearly not just the latter. I'm pretty sure that he's not incredible and he's not terrible, but where he falls in between is difficult to say. He doesn't fit our conceptions--statistically or aesthetically--which makes him difficult to grade.
However that bears out, it's ridiculously fun to watch right now.
in any other situation, Matt Prater would be getten the love.
There's more than enough love to go around in Denver these days.
Don't think it'd be too different with most others, though: giving the QB too much credit or blame for the team's success and failures isn't at all new. Lazy analysts have been doing it forever. What's new here is the ridiculous drama and improbability of it all. That's always going to be news. Inexplicable, sporadic, unconventional success is always more interesting than reliable, expected brilliance.
upStomp
12-11-11, 09:35 PM
For the record, my bye lineup scored 160.98.
Woop!
Mine's probably gonna top out at around 100.
Hooray for Byes.
upStomp
12-11-11, 09:40 PM
Amen. Going up against Denver IN Denver certainly doesn't give me the warm-and-fuzzies for next week. Still, it's good to see my boys continue their upward swing through the last leg of the season.
DexterRiley
12-11-11, 10:07 PM
I'll be dusting off my copy of the new testament for next weeks game. If the Denver D can hold the patsies to less than 20 pts, that bodes well pour moi.
:D
DexterRiley
12-12-11, 10:38 AM
yeah im somewhat lucky in that my 2 viable flex options are both playing tonite at 8:20. The crappy part being the one thats been performing best is of course now banged up.
basically i need phil rivers to play lights out, and Aaron Rodgers to get the flu to have a chance this week.
Saw this morning Jennings left the field after his second catch, i wondered where the heck he was all game, makes the Finley Goosegg all the more shocking though.
Robinbson delivered in the flex, so Lynch can have a game for the ages MJD style and i should be alright.
crazy crazy day.
Yeah, tough luck for Mike, who put up a total above the league average and still lost handily, largely thanks to MJD. raul's Packers hurt him, but those iffier guys were all mediocre around the same time, too, and there's a decent chance even the Jennings injury won't end up being the difference.
Pretty sure I'm going to get knocked off in one of my pay leagues thanks to a screwup whereby we only had 8 teams but the Commissioner left the number of playoff teams at 6 (which would've been too high even with 10 teams), so I'm going to lose to some 5-8 team. :facepalm: Don't think I'll be coming back in that league unless some of those settings change; it's got yardage bonuses and slants heavily to QBs, too. It's pretty goofy.
Made the playoffs in two of three leagues this year, but the other league starts their playoffs this coming week, so I am still alive there. It was a fun season, folks!
Anyone catch the end of the Broncos game?
upStomp
12-12-11, 02:23 PM
Just noticed this on this week's matchup rating for Gronk:
Matchup Rating http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sp/fn/default/full/stars_trans_5.gif (12/12 @Was)
You start this beast against anyone and everyone.
:laugh:
Every week I hear it at least three times from the commentators...
"You know Bill/Tim/Bob/Dick/Jaws, just who is going to cover this guy? I don't know of anyone, do you? You just can't cover this guy!"
Anyone catch the end of the Broncos game?
Yep:
IT HAPPENED AGAIN WHAT.
Every week I hear it at least three times from the commentators...
"You know Bill/Tim/Bob/Dick/Jaws, just who is going to cover this guy? I don't know of anyone, do you? You just can't cover this guy!"
Yup. Every game.
Another one that bugs me: "so-and-so does that as well as anyone."
Really? As well as anyone? So Phillip Rivers isn't just good at throwing a deep ball, he's the ABSOLUTE BEST IN THE LEAGUE at it? Or at least tied with someone else for it?
They've morphed "as well as anyone" into meaning "really good compared to most people."
Oh, potentially underrated subplot: Demarco Murray gone. Now, Fiscal's options to replace him are plenty strong, so there's an excellent chance it doesn't hurt him at all. But I happen to own one Mr. Felix Jones, who I grabbed speculatively in case Murray went down.
Given that we're in PPR, and Maclin's still looking banged up...and you never know if AP's going to get shut down...that could end up being a big deal. So naturally, Fiscal and I are going to be facing off this coming week. Could Felix, assuming I play him, be the difference? Oooo, drama.
DexterRiley
12-12-11, 08:38 PM
Yup. Every game.
Another one that bugs me: "so-and-so does that as well as anyone."
Really? As well as anyone? So Phillip Rivers isn't just good at throwing a deep ball, he's the ABSOLUTE BEST IN THE LEAGUE at it? Or at least tied with someone else for it?
They've morphed "as well as anyone" into meaning "really good compared to most people."
Chris Collinsworth is really bad for this, though Joe Theisman is the worst.
DexterRiley
12-12-11, 08:54 PM
Oh, potentially underrated subplot: Demarco Murray gone. Now, Fiscal's options to replace him are plenty strong, so there's an excellent chance it doesn't hurt him at all. But I happen to own one Mr. Felix Jones, who I grabbed speculatively in case Murray went down.
Given that we're in PPR, and Maclin's still looking banged up...and you never know if AP's going to get shut down...that could end up being a big deal. So naturally, Fiscal and I are going to be facing off this coming week. Could Felix, assuming I play him, be the difference? Oooo, drama.
yes it would be funny if you ran Felix out there, and Fiscal countered with Gerhart (assuming AP is rested).
Chris Collinsworth is really bad for this, though Joe Theisman is the worst.
Joe Thiesmann...lemme tell ya'...that guy does that as well as anyone.
DexterRiley
12-13-11, 11:53 AM
Move over Chris, this week im all in on Tebow and the Broncos.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6NrUFsFOyos/TuVbNSTEENI/AAAAAAAAIh4/vyMwCoTQ5Ko/s1600/tebowconversion.jpg
http://www.timtebowfans.org/images/stop_Broncos.jpg
http://images5.cpcache.com/product_zoom/346341385v8_460x460_Front_Color-Black_padToSquare-true.jpg
Hehehe.
I'll prolly do a quick writeup of both games a little later today.
DexterRiley
12-13-11, 12:03 PM
i dont even mind if you reference a pale horse (bronco) with a rider with a crown (afc west) or a (te)bow.
:D
Ha. I never noticed the horse thing. Nice.
upStomp
12-13-11, 12:43 PM
The projections for our game look completely meaningless to me, Dex. It could go either way. My boys have a terrible track record in Denver the last few years, and that's before all the Tebowing.
Wow. I suck at trash talk.
:laugh:
Yeah, your projections in general are crappy, because you rely so much on one team. It's hard for most teams to kill or get killed because several different things have to happen at once for either to take place, but having half your lineup play for one team means only one "thing" has to happen for them all to tank, or all to succeed. If the Patriots offense is stymied, that ripples throughout your total in a way it wouldn't for a more diversified team.
Very all-or-nothing. Which is usually killer, but on a few teams (Patriots, Packers, maybe Saints), it's somewhat acceptable.
rauldc14
12-13-11, 12:52 PM
well, at least I made the playoffs. In reality, not bad for the roster I had.
upStomp
12-13-11, 01:00 PM
Never in a million years did I expect to place this year (umm...what???). I drafted so goofily solely so that I wouldn't feel torn away from my family for entire Sundays every week. Well, that and because I thought it would be fun with so many Anti-Pats in the league.
The fact that I'm even in this position is astounding to me. At least, that's what I'll have to remind myself if I lose a game in the next 2 weeks.
11 Angry Men (10-3) vs. Team Zissou (8-6)
Well, we figured TZ's romp was going to continue into the playoffs, and last week, it sure did. Dude hung 154+ up on the wall, which if it holds through the scoring corrections would be the third-highest score in league playoff history. Mike put up a strong 123, but was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Still, another strong year for The Replicants, who had their best regular season record and third playoff appearance in four years. Nicely done, Mike. :up:
On to this week: it become obvious to me after Week 13 that getting the #1 seed was probably going to end up sucking, because TZ's #6 seed is more than a little misleading and it's hard not to think of him as the favorite. But as I look at the actual matchups this week, things might not be quite as dire as I'd feared, for two reasons: DeMarco Murray, and matchups.
First, Murray: dude looks like he's done for the year now, which is significant partly because Fiscal loses him (though he'll hardly miss a beat given the very high quality of his bench options), and partly because I happen to own Felix Jones. Which is all the more significant because of...
..the matchups. Dallas faces Tampa Bay this week, which has given up more fantasy points to RBs than any other team in the NFL, magnifying the significance of the Murray/Jones switch. The matchups are a net positive for me this week, because mine are mixed and Fiscal's are pretty rough. On my side, Gore, Nicks, and White all have tough to very tough matchup. But Peterson, Tebow, and Jones all have very favorable ones. Fiscal's only good matchup is Stafford, who's playing Oakland. Every other likely starter's matchup is below average or outright bad.
Of course, even with all this, I only figure to have a slight lead in Yahoo's projections, but there are a fair number of windows blowing in the right direction...
PREDICTION: The 11 Angry Men find themselves in the final again, reaching the MoFo Bowl all four years of the league's existence. NOTE: I am not confident about this by any stretch of the imagination. But if I had to bet, this is how I'd bet. But I wouldn't bet..
-
Big Damn Heroes (9-4) vs. Dextruction (9-5)
A pretty sizable upset for Dex in the Quarterfinals, and now he's just one win away from the MoFo Bowl. raul was slain by a so-so day from his Packer playmakers and a few so-so performances from the iffier guys, and Dex put up his best total in over a month despite losing Forte and Andre and enduring Calvin Johnson's worst performance of the season.
Forte won't be coming back to help here in the Semis, but Andre probably will. The matchups are rough, though: he's got three Chargers playing the Baltimore defense. Only Megatron looks to have a favorable matchup this week.
On the other side, Jay rode an assortment of Patriots to his first first-round Bye, and a 9-4 record for the second consecutive season. His RB situation is undeniably dicy, but Brady, Gronkowski, and a surprising second-half surge out of Reggie Bush have paved over those roster holes pretty effectively so far. They play Denver, and gauging the difficulty of that matchup is tough. On one hand, they've given up quite a few points to QBs and WRs (not as many to TEs, but with Regronkulus, I doubt that really applies), but methinks those were probably more from the beginning of the year. They're certainly playing better now on defense, and their atrocious pass defense means they might actually have to respect the idea of Tebow throwing the ball.
Lots of holes here, but one of them (Gaffney in the Flex) has a very good matchup and got a ton of looks on Sunday. Given Dex's matchups and some of the guys Jay's going to have to trot out, this might not be a terribly high-scoring Semifinal. But really, it's all going to come down to the Charger-Ravens and Patriots-Broncos games. If the Patriots are the Patriots, Jay almost certainly wins.
PREDICTION: I think Denver might put up a fair number of points on it's own, but if it competes in this game I don't think it does so with its defense. I think the Pats put up their usual floor of 28-30 points and Jay wins a moderately low-scoring affair.
-
Just a quick reminder that this week's Thursday game is Falcons-Jaguars. The only players involved in either matchup are both from my matchup with Fiscal: MJD on his side (who'd better not score 43 points again...) and Roddy White on mine.
Game on!
upStomp
12-13-11, 02:53 PM
I took a close look at that Denver D matchup about an hour ago. Turns out they still have plenty of trouble against good quarterbacks (giving up 25-30 pts to Stafford & Palmer "recently"), but they've been facing lots of bad-to-mediocre ones lately (Rivers was still tripping over crabgrass when he faced them). Similar with regard to WR's.
But I 100% agree that TE matchups mean nothing when referring to Gronk. Unless that guy bursts his ovaries, he shouldn't be troubled by bumps or coverages. Again, who can cover this guy??? ;)
I'm also putting a lot of stock in my mitigation against a reborn Rivers. If he has a good game, it may very well reflect on VJ.
DexterRiley
12-13-11, 11:33 PM
Ha. I never noticed the horse thing. Nice.
ok now this is weird. My highschool team mascot was a Bronco.
True Story.
Just looked at some of the fantasy site rankings out this week, and they suggest pretty much a dead heat (ranking-wise, at least) between Fiscal and I.
A lot'll probably depend on small things in tough matchups, like whether or not Gore gets into the end zone, or whether or not Nelson sees a lot more work with Jennings out. Lots to consider, but it looks like it should be a really good matchup.
Quick reminder that the matchups begin tonight. Only players of import going tonight are Roddy White (me) and MJD (Fiscal).
DexterRiley
12-15-11, 11:35 AM
Well it looks like with the Texans having secured a playoff berth, Andre will be shelved to rest and recuperate for the next couple of weeks.
For those scoring at home, that means i've had the use of his services for a quarter before he went down untouched and all of one game (with lauren Robinson on the bench no less )
:facepalm:
Much like last week, im gonna have to do this with mirrors, hope i get the benefit of 2fers ie RiversGates, while at the same time Brady favours Aaron Hernandez and Deon Branch.
Dear Champ Bailey, don't let Welker make you look silly.
The Ravens are the absolute best at restricting TE fantasy points this season, though gazing upon their sked thus far reveals they haven't faced anyone near the talent as Gates.
Dear Ed Reed..cover Vincent Jackson like a blanket.
I was really worried about the matchup of the chargers vs the Vaunted Raven D, although their stats have been padded to a great extent by facing a schwack of less than stellar offenses. Aside from Big Ben, they have had to deal with a who's who of meh QB's :
Gabbert, T. Jackson, A. Smith, McCoy, Orlovsky.
hereforth are my fearless predictions
QB's
Brady- 26pts
Rivers- 22.8
WR
Calvin- 28
Manningham- 14
VJax- 12
Welker- 11.8
RB
Marion Barber-17.4
Mike Tolbert- 8.2
Reggie Bush-21
James Starks- 6
TE
Gates- 23.4
Gronk- 14
Flex
Robinson- 21
Gaffney- 9
Def
Falcons- 15
Pats- 6
K
I have absolutely no idea.
Did you hear something official on the Andre thing? I'm finding mixed reports. It sounds plausible but I was wondering if it's actually being reported.
Pretty lame, if it's true. Though I'm lucky in that, in my other league, I've got some guys I might prefer playing over him anyway, if he's not 100%. Still, a lost season for the #1 receiver off of almost everyone's boards.
If your projections are right, you'd win by over 30 points, by the way.
DexterRiley
12-15-11, 11:52 AM
Did you hear something official on the Andre thing? I'm finding mixed reports. It sounds plausible but I was wondering if it's actually being reported.
Pretty lame, if it's true. .
its lame for Fantasy, not for Real life. If Ben was lost for the season along with James Harrison and the Steelers had the division won, would they trot out Wallace if he was banged up the way Johnson is? i doubt it.
If your projections are right, you'd win by over 30 points, by the way.
I'd buy that for a dollar
:laugh:
upStomp
12-15-11, 12:21 PM
Wow, Dex. Holding Welker and Gronk to well under 20 each? Bold, my man...bold.
;)
Yeah, I was thinking that might be a little optimistic. He's basically counting on Denver being surprisingly decent at containing the Patriot offense, which is certainly the single biggest that could happen in this matchup.
We really do have two great matchups this week. Should be a lot of fun.
upStomp
12-15-11, 12:28 PM
Indeed. I can't wait - and I'm dreading it.
:D
Gronk is head and shoulders better than Gates at this point. Reverse those totals. Dex's predictions are terrible, btw. Pipe dreaming!
DexterRiley
12-15-11, 08:55 PM
Gronk is head and shoulders better than Gates at this point. Reverse those totals. Dex's predictions are terrible, btw. Pipe dreaming!
We wont know if they are terrible or not until the games are played.
DexterRiley
12-16-11, 12:01 AM
Falcons D is a pleasant surprise. and this with MJD going over 100 yards.
DexterRiley
12-16-11, 12:02 AM
Roddy White looken like last years Version finally. Timing couldnt have been better for yas chris.
upStomp
12-16-11, 07:57 AM
Yeah, nicely done with that Falcons D. Yikes!
They almost tacked on a reverse-garbage-time pick six, too. Very close.
I didn't think I could dislike fat-ass MoJo any more after he smashed me last week. Alas...
DexterRiley
12-16-11, 09:17 PM
had MJD rumbled for 4 scores last night i woulda been tres sad. I'm still sorta stunned the Jags managed to post 14 without 1 from shorty fatass tbph.
Am I wrong?
Benching Freeman vs Dallas for Fitzpatrick vs Miami
Benching Winslow for Jake Ballard vs Washinton
heres the biggie...benching Blount for Demarious Thomas vs New England. The kids been catching some serious business the past month, and NE pass D is weak, maybe weaker than Tebow?! I will play Helu and Bradshaw.
DexterRiley
12-16-11, 11:21 PM
The only thing i see u did was wrong was use teh waiver wire to pick up Donald Driver.
Don't forget: another game tonight, Dallas-Tampa Bay. Neither Jay or Dex will have any starting players going, but I'll have Felix Jones and Jason Witten up, so we're going to learn a whole lot more about my matchup with Fiscal before Sunday rolls around.
More of the same next week: since Sunday falls on Christmas day, all the Sunday games but one (the night game) will be played on Saturday. We might have a champion by Christmas morning.
I'm in the Semi-finals in my other league with my Tebow/Calvin fueled Replicants. I was the number 4 seed (smaller league) and I draw a match-up with Petey's 12-2 Champs. D'oh!
I seem to have the worst luck with match-ups this year, as most of my players face a tough defense this week. Not Tebow, of course...as he plays NE. ;)
upStomp
12-17-11, 03:34 PM
Don't forget: another game tonight, Dallas-Tampa Bay. Neither Jay or Dex will have any starting players going, but I'll have Felix Jones and Jason Witten up, so we're going to learn a whole lot more about my matchup with Fiscal before Sunday rolls around.
More of the same next week: since Sunday falls on Christmas day, all the Sunday games but one (the night game) will be played on Saturday. We might have a champion by Christmas morning.
Dex has Robinson going tonight. :D
D'oh, missed that. My bad.
DexterRiley
12-17-11, 04:06 PM
Don't forget: another game tonight, Dallas-Tampa Bay. Neither Jay or Dex will have any starting players going, but I'll have Felix Jones and Jason Witten up, so we're going to learn a whole lot more about my matchup with Fiscal before Sunday rolls around.
More of the same next week: since Sunday falls on Christmas day, all the Sunday games but one (the night game) will be played on Saturday. We might have a champion by Christmas morning.
why do you keep doing that? First you said i didnt have a dog in the hunt for thursdays game, when i had the Falcons D, and now you arent counting Lauren Robinson in my flex.
What gives?
I'm secretly undermining your importance. :devil:
Actually, I think I just missed Robinson. You added the Atlanta defense the day before the game and I didn't notice the change.
rauldc14
12-17-11, 04:38 PM
Tonight shall be a Miles night 90 yards and 2 TDs. Laurent no more
Tonight shall be a Miles night 90 yards and 2 TDs. Laurent no more
No youre wrong, but it wont matter. Aqib Taqlib will be covering Austin, but Im sure Dez, Witten, and Laurent will rock it instead. My poor Bucs are gonna get their ass whipped :(
DexterRiley
12-17-11, 06:24 PM
Tonight shall be a Miles night 90 yards and 2 TDs. Laurent no more
gotta ride Robinson til the wheels come off.
hopefully the Bucs have some semblance of a pass rush, so Garret can use Witten for protection.
I can't see Laurent getting any less than 4 snags for 75 yards. thats the floor imo. Tough to predict TD's obviously, but he's been far and away Romo's fave redzone go-to guy.
in a blowout, The boys arent gonna risk Austin getting hurt again i dont believe.
We shall see.
how crazy is it, i'll be cheeren for both Tebow and Romo to rock it like a hurricane.
will wonders never cease.
:laugh:
DexterRiley
12-18-11, 10:55 AM
Twas a lil bummed when Austin got that first 8 yard TD, that was Robinson-time the last few weeks (which in of itself is wierd as thats been Wittens World for the last few years, but i digress)
Then Dez got the next 8 yard strike.
and i was like
:facepalm:
but alas Robinson came thru with the 3rd opportunity in the 2nd quarter.
Unfortunately the Cowboys didnt do diddly squat in the second half, but i cant be too upset @ 11.90 i dont think.
Yeah, ditto (since I've got him in another league). But it turns out there's still plenty to go around; all three receivers get one. And Felix runs well, as expected.
Witten only puts up 11, but I'll take it. I can probably afford to get just 60-70% of the rest of my player projections and still be in a very good position to win. And Dex's Falcons D outperforming their projection by 10 or so puts the remaining projections just about even.
Big day! Have fun everyone.
We're underway! Gore's the only player on all four starting lineups going tomorrow, so there's a good chance we'll have our final more or less set by the end of the day.
Nicks just dropped a gift of a 54-yard TD pass. Meh.
Rodgers 1 for 5 on the day. Eli 0 for 6. Wow.
Slow day so far. Peterson's got 5; running well but sharing work with Gerhart to ease him back into things. Nicks has a big donut so far thanks to that dropped pass (he had another deep target that went incomplete, too). On Fiscal's side Lloyd's put up a solid 7.6 so far, and Olsen just 3.5. Gould has 2 and his D, New Orleans, has 6. Pretty lackluster numbers all around.
In the other matchup, Reggie Bush has 7.7 at the half and Gaffney has 6.8, so both are chugging along with strong totals. On Dex's side Barber has 2.6 (all on the ground) and Williams, who he subbed in last-minute for Manningham, has 3.5. Manningham's at 4.3 so far.
We'll see if there are any more fireworks in the second half. So far I'd say it's been a better first half for Jay and Fiscal than it has been for Dex or I.
DexterRiley
12-18-11, 04:00 PM
agreed Chris.
Jay and Fiscal are Goliathy like.
we're a slingshot away from turnen this around though right.
Sure we are, Dex. It'll all be alright. Everything'll be great in the second half, and we'll find some farmland, and you can tend the rabbits, and...
EBourgault
12-18-11, 04:40 PM
Brady and Tebow up next!
Still up in the air. Jordy Nelson finished with about 5, AP finished with just 6, Stafford has 20 so far and Tebow has 10. I'm up by 30, and after this round of games it's going to be Ray Rice for Fiscal against Novak and Frank Gore for me, so he'll probably need to be fairly close after the 4:00 games end. I'm in pretty decent shape.
In the other matchup, Brady's got 25 points at the half, though Welker has just 5.8 and Regronkulus only 2.5, as he's ceded a big day to Hernandez instead. After this round of games it'll be V-Jax for Jay against Rivers, Tolbert and Gates for Dex, who currently trails by 30. He's definitely still in this, provided he can keep the margin right around there.
Whew! Absolute insanity in the 4:00 games. I suffered a fairly brutal loss in my other league, but there's still lots of drama here in MoFoland.
I'm in good shape against Fiscal; he got a huge day out of Stafford, but Tebow's put up 27 to mediate the blow. In the other matchup, Jay started pulling away from Dex, but Calvin Johnson put up 14 points on the final drive alone to pull him within striking distance again.
Here's where it all stands:
11 Angry Men and Team Zissou
I've got Frank Gore tomorrow, Nick Novak tonight, and 28 points
VS.
Ray Rice
Big Damn Heroes and Dextruction
Jay has Vincent Jackson and 32 points
VS.
Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Mike Tolbert.
Based on the projections I should be very safe against Fiscal, even if Rice goes completely insane, and Jay and Dex should be almost exactly even!
DexterRiley
12-18-11, 08:48 PM
Much like last week, im gonna have to do this with mirrors, hope i get the benefit of 2fers ie RiversGates, while at the same time Brady favours Aaron Hernandez.
I def have a man-crush on Hernandez.
Wow, Dex. Holding Welker and Gronk to well under 20 each? Bold, my man...bold.
;)
what i meant was 20 total obviously Jay
:laugh:
Nice matchup remaining with Jay and Dex. I'm sure you feel nice, sitting real pretty Chris. TE
EBOW. Way to ruin my Stafford come back.
DexterRiley
12-18-11, 10:41 PM
Stafford come back was awesome.
DexterRiley
12-19-11, 12:13 AM
Congrats Jay.
upStomp
12-19-11, 06:05 AM
Wow. I'm truly stunned. I was dreading getting up this morning to look at the score after having gone to bed at halftime during the SD game. I fully expected this to go the other way.
Now on to hoping NE doesn't make going Grelkerless a habit.
Thanks, Fiscal. :) Good game man, and a great season. I think you very well might have had the scariest team. I sure wasn't glad to have drawn you in the Semis.
And a big congrats to Jay and Dex, as well. Dex for clawing to within 10 points of the MoFo Bowl despite suffering some very tough injury setbacks, and Jay primarily for recognizing Regronkulus' upside and riding him to his first MoFo Bowl. You and me, man! DVDs and a moderately impressive trophy on the line.
I'll do a quick recap later this morning.
If there was one week that I needed Gronk to do not so well, it was this week. I'm in the Super Bowl in my other league! :) Calvin Johnson & Tebow did a lot to help me get by Pete's crazy team! So, I am up 121-105 and I still have Mendenhall and Wallace to go tonight...zoinks! Pete is done for the week as far as players are concerned.
Onto the recaps!
11 Angry Men vs. Team Zissou
A crazy day full of highs and lows. Fiscal's chances were dealt a major blow when Roddy White tossed up 35+ on Thursday and MJD, though he played well, managed only 12. I got to watch part of the game too, because I realized after switching to Verizon FiOS that I now get the NFL Network. I realized this around Week 11. :facepalm: Me am so dumb.
Anyway, changes of making that deficit up looked less likely when Witten and Jones combined for a so-so 27+ on Saturday, leading to a 50-point margin to overcome by the time Sunday had rolled around. One of his best bets to eat into it was Jordy Nelson, who's been unreliable to say the least. Earlier in the year he put up 21, 23, and 30 in consecutive games, only to put up 6 the next. Then 14 and 17. And this week, just 5. He seemed a better bet than usual with Jennings out, and he might have been if Kansas City hadn't solved the Packer offense and dealt them their first loss.
He got a fantastic 38 out of Stafford, but Tebow tossed up 27 to mitigate most of the damage, and Nicks put up a respectable 12. I got a very disappointing 6 points from AP in his return, but he ran well, looked good, and complained about the workload, so hopefully he won't let me down next week.
By the time the second round of games ended Fiscal was down around 30 points with only Rice left to go. Rice put up a strong 20, as projected, but the deficit's still 19 with Gore still left to go, so that's that.
Hats off to Fiscal for putting up the highest point total of the year. He wraps up a strong season where he found a mid-draft gem in Stafford, ended up stacked at RB through trades, and had depth at receiver, even if they were a bit boom-or-bust. Here's to a great year, man. :up:
-
Big Damn Heroes vs. Dextruction
Far more drama in this game. Dex jumped out to an early lead, getting 20 points out of the Atlanta D on Thursday, but lost most of it fairly early on Sunday as Gaffney and Bush had strong days; the latter rushing for over 200 yards and putting up over 25 points. Brady had a predictably strong day with 31 points, but Welker had just 8 (thanks to a challenge flag on a sliding touchdown that correctly ruled he was actually down at the 1), and Regronkulus had "just" 9, as the Broncos apparently decided he wasn't going to beat them...so Aaron Hernandez had a huge day, instead. Pick your poison, Denver.
Dex was down over 40 as the second round of games started to come to a close, but Stafford led a furious comeback and Calvin Johnson put up, like, 14 points on the final drive, to pull Dex back within 30, which is about the margin he'd been looking at most of the day. That left Jackson for Jay and Rivers, Gates and Tolbert for Dex; Yahoo's projections had them almost dead even. Jackson ended up just about on the money with 12, and Tolbert put up just under 14...but Gates was stuck at 5 most of the game and Rivers only tossed for 16, and Jay hung on by a 129-120 margin. Both above-average scores. Dex's decision to sit Manningham for Williams, mercifully, was not the difference.
Many congrats to Dex, who made the playoffs again this year. Whereas last year he started 0-4 and finished 8-5, this year he started 4-0 and finished 8-5. :laugh: He made it one game closer to the MoFo Bowl this year, and he did it despite some tough injury losses. He managed his team well, though, and that's all you can do. Good job, man.
-
A huge thanks to both Fiscal and Dex for competing strong all year and being gracious in defeat. I appreciate that you guys took the games seriously without taking them too seriously, and you're both assets to the league. I hope you'll both be back.
upStomp
12-19-11, 01:48 PM
Stellar breakdown, Chris. See you on Saturday!!! I'll be the one wearing a 35pt tight end. ;)
It was awesome hangin' with you last night, Dex. It's great to be able to goof around with you guys while the stress of a tight playoff game is gnawing at my gut.
Cheers!
Yeah, I dig this league. I love a league where there are not actual stakes (IE: a bunch of money) to feel bad about, but everyone still cares and the bragging rights feel real, and everyone's engaged and taking it just the right amount of serious.
I'll have a quick recap of our respective seasons' and a breakdown of our matchup coming in a couple of days once all the various projections are out. Naturally, at first glance it looks like a huge toss-up.
upStomp
12-19-11, 02:01 PM
Looking forward to it.
Naturally, at first glance it looks like a huge toss-up.
I wouldn't have it any other way. :dizzy:
Stellar breakdown, Chris. See you on Saturday!!! I'll be the one wearing a 35pt tight end. ;)
It was awesome hangin' with you last night, Dex. It's great to be able to goof around with you guys while the stress of a tight playoff game is gnawing at my gut.
Cheers!
Yeah, sorry I am on and off so much from chat, but my damn TV is in the other room and LT was using the laptop.
upStomp
12-19-11, 03:56 PM
Yeah, sorry I am on and off so much from chat, but my damn TV is in the other room and LT was using the laptop.
You got your internet back? Awesome! :D
Well good for Jay, and Yoda. I thought this was gonna be a Fiscal vs Dex final so Im way off. 11 Angry Men?! Again?! AUGH! Whats bad is I have to root for 11AM because the competition is full of...them. Those Patriots. I like Jay, would really like to see a new champion of our league, but not that much lol :laugh: Jays final game has his Pats vs a surprisingly tough Miami Dolphins. This will be a hard one to gauge.
upStomp
12-19-11, 07:05 PM
Umm...thanks???
;)
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