View Full Version : MoFo Fantasy Football 2009: Week 13
PW's got a busy week, and since we've got ourselves another of those wacky Thursday games, he asked me write up a lil' somethin' for Week 13.
Week 13 is kind of a random week in that annoying thing we all like to call "reality." But in fantasy (which polls much better, by the way) and in our league, specifically, Week 13 is otherwise known as the Last Week of the Regular Season. That's right; this will be the last meaningful game for 8 of our 14 teams. There can only be 6! It'll like Highlander, but with 5 more. And more fighting. And less Christopher Lambert, though if he's reading this, I would totally let him join next year.
Normally, Pow-Wa goes through each matchup, rolls some dice, flings some chicken entrails around, and makes a prediction. I doubt I could do it as well as he does (I'm low on poultry), so I'll make up a short list and post it in a bit, and leave the in-depth pretend analysis to Pete and TONGO, etc. What I will do, however, is break down the playoff scenarios. There are quite a few of them, you know. Buckle up, it's gonna get statistical up in here.
Playoff Scenarios
Okay, the basics: 6 teams get in. The top 2 seeds get a Bye week to, er, rest up. Of course, in fantasy, this just means we're off the hook if our team sucks in Week 14. But that's what we're working with: 6 teams, 2 Byes, and 8 bye-byes.
The Ins, and the Likelys...
First thing's first: I'm in. Woohoo! Awesome. I'd like to thank God, my parents, and Drew Brees. Not necessarily in that order. I'm 9-3, just one game ahead of the next rung, so I could end up with a lower seed or a higher seed, but one way or another I'm in one of those aforementioned half-dozen Highlander slots.
After that, we have three 8-4 teams: The Replicants (Sedai), Team Darcy (Mrs. Darcy), and Wolverines (LTIZZY). If any of these three win, they're in. No matter what else happens.
Sedai's team is basically already in; even if he loses, there will be few enough teams above him that he'll be among the 8-5 tiebreaks. He may lose such a tiebreak to PW (who's about a half-point ahead for the overall lead), but he's more than 200 points ahead of every other 7-5 team, so at worst he'll be a #5 seed. He's playing for pride, honor, and the possibility of a Bye week. Not necessarily in that order.
Things Get Trickier...
After that, things get cray-zay. A win puts PW's Odd Squad in because of his point total, but a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate him. If PW loses, he just needs Slug's Sweeties to lose, as well. Both he and Slug will be 7-6 and tied for the 6th (and final) spot, and PW will win the points tiebreaker. This is because Gadsden Flag (upStomp) and Beantown Champs (Piledriver) play each other, ensuring that at least one of them will lose.
Then, the permutations get a little too insane to analyze, but here's the basic idea: the loser of the Gadsden/Beantown showdown is definitely out, but the winner isn't necessarily in. If either Slug or PW loses, the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown game is in the playoffs. If both Slug and PW win, the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown game will have to outscore Slug significantly; he has a 45-point lead on Beantown, and about a 60-point lead on Gadsden. HOWEVER, the winner can also get in if one of the 8-4 teams (Darcy or LT, since Seds' point lead is too big) loses, and they finish with a higher overall points total.
An Attempt to Simplify All That Complicated Stuff Above
Let's recap each team's scenario. I'm going to treat huge point advantages as impossible to overcome, since they pretty much are, and ignoring their technical possibility makes this breakdown a lot simpler:11 Angry Men
In.
The Replicants
In.
Team Darcy
Win and you're in.
Wolverines
Win and you're in.
PW's Odd Squad
Win and you're in. Lose and you need Slug to lose, too.
Slug's Sweeties
Win and you're in, unless you're outscored by 45 (if Beantown wins) or 60 (if Gadsden wins).
Beantown Champs
Win and you need either PW or Slug to lose, and if both win you need to outscore Slug by 45. OR, if either Darcy or LT loses, you need to win and finish with a higher point total.
Gadsden Flag
Win and you need either PW or Slug to lose, and if both win, you need to outscore Slug by 60. OR, if either Darcy or LT loses, you need to win and finish with a higher point total.
Those last two are a bit complicated, but so it goes. For the record, here are the point totals of the most relevant tiebreaker possibilities: Team Darcy, 1399 points
Wolverines, 1363 points
Slug's Sweeties, 1372 points
Beantown Champs, 1327 points
Gadsden Flag, 1311 points
Here's a really simple way to think about all this: at least 4 teams already have 8 wins, and two 7-win teams play each other, so at minimum, there will be FIVE teams with 8 wins or more. At maximum, there could be SEVEN teams with 8 wins or more. This means PW is the only team that could possibly make the playoffs at 7-6, and at most only one 8-5 team can possibly be left out.
Gotta say, the standings definitely bunched more than I had expected them to. I thought we'd have a couple of 10 or 11 win teams, a few 9-win teams, and then maybe a few 8-5 teams fighting for the last spot, but the top teams lost a bit down the stretch, and here we are; just one clinching team heading into the last week, and 8 teams still in the running for a spot. Should be crazy. Crazy exciting, that is.
All that said, don't forget to check your lineups, and don't forget that the Jets and Bills play tomorrow night! Get your lineups in!
Okay, on to some rough predictions:
Gadsden Flag vs. Beantown Champs
Lose and you're out, win and you're...well, win and you have a decent shot at getting in. Probably better than average. Gadsden lost a heart breaker on a technicality last week, but I think Jay bounces back here. I don't trust Flacco and though Pete just nabbed J. Campbell (who's actually decent), and Carson Palmer faces Detroit, who's dead last in pass defense.
Prediction: Gadsden Flag.
PW's Odd Squad vs. TONGO
Brady disappointed against New Orleans, but Miami's pass defense is ranked 23rd, and though I don't think much of emotion-based predictors, I have to think those vindictive Pats are gonna be peeved after the Saints game. Brady followed up his only other bad game of the year with 17, and put up 19 when he played Miami earlier this year.
Oh, and Thomas Jones is facing the Bills, who are (here comes that italicized phrase again) dead last in rushing defense. The only issue is L. Fitzgerald, who looks like he'll have Matt Leinert throwing to him again, but he'll still put up a few.
Prediction: PW's Odd Squad.
Da Bears vs. The Replicants
Fred Jackson is the new starter in Buffalo and has excelled whenever he's been given the chance, which should alleviate the Ronnie Brown injury pretty adequately. Toss in the fact that D. McNabb is facing the porous Atlanta pass defense, and I've gotta go for the Bots.
Prediction: The Replicants.
11 Angry Men vs. I-Love-Megan-Fox
The streak continues; I've been confident in all 9 of my wins, and pessimistic about all 3 losses. But Bobby's no pushover; after a 1-6 start, he's won 4 of 6. Check out his point totals over those six games: 127, 141, 98, 144, 117, 117. This is a team with a lot of talent that can go off at any time...
...however, T. Romo's going up against the 4th-ranked NYG pass defense, which should help offset the fact that the Saints are playing the #1 ranked Washington pass defense (not that any of us would feel comfortable predicting anyone shutting them down, at this point). I expect the Pats to do a fairly decent job containing Ricky Williams, and Andre Johnson should absolutely shred the Jacksonville pass defense.
Prediction: 11 Angry Men.
Wolverines vs. The Tateraters
Randy Moss against the aforementioned Miami pass defense and Matt Forte, even struggling as he has, against the St. Louis Rams are both good matchups for LT, as is R. Mendenhall against Oakland. Spud nearly won even without a QB last week (I'm sure Darcy'll be sending a fruit basket over, but the 7-5 teams will all be sending plastic explosives, so watch out), and he's got Ben against the Raiders...but there's still too much talent on LT's side, and as bad as Cutler can be at times, he's been at least okay the last two weeks and plays the Rams.
Prediction: Wolverines.
Hired Goons vs. Slug's Sweeties
Matt Schaub should carbe up Jacksonville's secondary, and as good as Minnesota may be against the run, they're below-average against the pass, which means Breaston and Boldin might put up some decent numbers even against a surprisingly solid Vikings team. And despite Matt Leinert. The rejuvenated T.O. is on a nice little streak, but he's up against the Jets' #2 pass defense this week, and Slug still has that Chris Johnson fellow.
Prediction: Slug's Sweeties.
Team Darcy vs. Flash
Probably the toughest call of the week. Darcy's likely without Turner again, LT has reemerged and supplanted most of Sproles' value, Orton is banged up, and she's actually had to trot Larry Johnson out there. I think Benson plays, which means LJ shouldn't get much work, and her other options aren't much better. Meanwhile, Flash has the PIT defense against Oakland and Manning/Garcon against the Titans who, while much improved, are still second to last in pass defense. Flash seems to have more things going for him, but there are, potentially, some big holes there, too, as guys like M. Wallace, C. Williams and M. Bell are apt to disappear from time to time.
Prediction: Team Darcy.
Good luck, everyone!
Thanks for breaking down the playoff picture Yoda. Not that Im in it but only you could have explained it, and probably understood it too.
Damn Id really like to whip PW, but my guarantees and smacktalk aint worth a damn. So how is it even possible?
Miami has one of the best running games in the NFL, and can chew that clock up while Brady watches from the sidelines. Thats would kill two of PWs most valuable slots IF Miami does so.
If Matt Leinart plays again Fitzgerald will probably not be his former fantasy scoring self especially vs Minnesota. 3 slots down IF Warner is out again.
Ray Rice is up against the best defense in the NFL, and Green Bay is in the top ten for pass and rush defense. Theres no if in this one cause Rice might be worth 10. Also I have Green Bay as my Defense :)
Jeremy Shockey doesnt really get thrown too much lately, and Washington is not the day for him to start. Brees though can throw a TD pass too the defensive line coach if needed, but IF Washingtons pass D is strong enough to hang with New Orleans thats 5 slots down for PW.
No ifs about it Thomas Jones will kill the Bills. Again PWs Minnesota Defense value hinges on if Warner plays or not.
The biggest upset this week wont be me beating PW, but the Titans beating the Colts, and yeah Britts in my swing slot. My TE slot has value again with Big Ben back, and really the only slots Im in trouble are Derrick Mason vs GB, and Barber vs NYG. Favres on fire, and should hurt Arizona bad with their 29th ranked pass defense, and Bensons back!
Ive been looking forward to this matchuip for a couple months. PW is the first person I could call a bud from the movie forums having met him at that place not worth mentioning. Of course the great Tom Brady trade has nice sizzle fuel for the matchup too. With every Brady to Welker he can put a sharp stick in my eye, and when Farvin strikes back I can laugh how the old fat guys still getting it done, and ranked higher than Brady! :laugh:LOL!:laugh: Oh I hate Tom Brady......
So Odd Squad.....all that stands between you and your rightful place in the playoffs is my big dumb ape ass. So how bout you just get in your lil bi-planes and come getyoself sum!!!
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Can anything be done about this Brees fueled juggernaut??? ;)
Plainview
12-03-09, 10:48 AM
Do the saints meet The Colts that will put a stop to the brees fueled juggernaut
They do not. But heck, the Colts pass defense is a little below average, anyway. They gave up 34 points to Brady and the Pats; they might beat the Saints, but I have to think it'd be a bit of a shootout anyway.
If New Orleans can get by Minnesota, oi what a game, then the two could meet in the super bowl. Yeah that would be a passing game bonanza like never seen before. The edge should go to the Saints as Breez and Peyton would cancel each other out, and New Orleans is simply a more well rounded team in all other areas. If Minnesota played the Colts in the super bowl Id give the edge to the Vikes for the same reason. Of course if the Colts manage to get too and beat either team Peyton Manning might solidfy himself as the best QB thats ever played football.
By the by, Sedai mentioned in the Week 12 thread that we might have some issues with the Colts and Saints resting big name players during the fantasy playoffs. This probably isn't a huge issue in the first couple of rounds, but by the championshiop (Week 16) it could become a very big issue. The Colts have been known to rest their starters after clinching home-field, though they usually still play a quarter or two. Flash won't be in the playoffs, but Darcy and I probably will be, so that could really hurt Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
The Saints don't have much history here, so it could go either way, but if they rest Brees, Colston, Thomas, or some mix of the three, obviously I'm in huge trouble. It'd be a bummer of a way for anyone to win or lose in the playoffs, let alone the championship, but hey, it's still part of the game.
Three things that might stop this sort of thing from happening: first, this sort of rest, traditionally, hasn't worked out for Indianapolis. All evidence is anecdotal at this sample size, but the last few years it seems that the rust isn't usually worth the rest. Second, while a 13-1 team would probably rest guys, a 14-0 team would be hard-pressed to throw away a chance at history. I think an undefeated Saints team keeps making a real effort to win, though they'd probably pull the starters midway through the 3rd quarter instead of the 4th, if the game were in hand. Third, in the case of the Saints, the Vikins are just one game behind them at 10-1, which means they might not have a chance to let up, anyway.
It's funny, because it's hard to know what to root for. If the Saints and Colts keep winning, they're probably more likely to play to the end and try to go 16-0. If they lose a couple of times, they still have seeding to fight for. The worst thing either could do might be to lose just once. Still, the Viking thing is a big X-Factor. If they're only a game back, I think New Orleans has to keep playing.
Powdered Water
12-03-09, 09:10 PM
Awesome. Thanks Chris. I'll try to get my picks and all my other hard hitting analysis in probably Saturday. I don't want to disappoint my fan. Seriously, the call was pouring in, asking me where were my picks for the week... so I can't let him down. Thanks for doing this. What a fantastic season this has been.
Flash won't be in the playoffs, but Darcy and I probably will be, so that could really hurt Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
I have a feeling that this week is going to be a "test" for the Colts. I have mentioned on this site many times in the past that my first team is the Steelers, but this looks like the Colts year. Right now if the Colts played the Saints I would have to give it to the Saints, but they will not play "right now". If somehow it goes to N.O. vs Indy then Indy wins.:)
Just got word that Steve Slaton's probably not going to play on Sunday, due to an "previously undisclosed shoulder injury." Not related to the neck issue that limited him slightly in practice last week, apparently. Weird.
Cotchery's already played, so he's out as a possible replacement. Normally I'd go with Hightower, but against Minnesota I'm not so sure. Maybe if Leinert's out, and they have to run the ball/check down a lot. I'll have to watch that closely, but I'll probably pass. And ya'll know what that means: Laurence Freakin' Maroney time.
spudracer
12-05-09, 10:23 AM
While I wish that this had been a better season for me, it looks like this last-ditch effort of mine will either pay off big time, or be fumbled like a pass from Matt Stafford.
I'll be at the Chiefs/Broncos game, so I'll be limited on any last-minute changes. I do have a back-up QB, just in case Ben is another no-show tomorrow. Regardless, tomorrow's match-up will be another nail-biter.
Well, I'm gonna defend you a bit, Spudly. Certainly your team has struggled to score points, but as is always the case with whatever team ends up in last, it takes more than that; you have to be pretty unlucky, too.
How unlucky has Spud been? Well, for one, he's had more points scored against him than any other team in the league; opponents have averaged over 122 points against him per game.
He's also lost several very close games. He lost to me by less than 1 point. The very next week, he lost to mikey by less than 6, and of course he lost to Darcy by less than 4, wherein earlier news on Ben/a late QB swap out would have been basically a guaranteed win. Dude's a couple breaks from being 3-9 or 4-8. Just sayin'.
Thomas Jones did okey-dokey vs the Bills (10.90 pts), but I was expecting him to score more so Im happy there.
My great gamble to play Kenny Britt over Crabtree has now gotten more complicated, and alot riskier. With Slaton most likely not going to play Chris Brown is a sure start over Marion Barber who shares carries with 2 other good RBs, buuuuuut all the sites are saying play Crabtree. I found on one they said to sit Derrick Mason vs GB monday night! Hey hey now Im confused as hell. Also watch Cedric Benson only play a quarter or two, and then Larry Johnson get sent in to protect the franchise. Thing is he'll still probably get more points than Marion Barber.
As of this moment Im sitting Mason for Crabtree, but that could change a couple dozen times before tomorrow. Funny thing is since tradings stopped my bench is looking better and better...decisions more difficult. So this is what letting talent develop feels like! :p
Pssst! Anyone not wanting to face the Odd Squad in the playoffs please PM me some advice! Thanks...
Yeah, C. Brown is a very risky play. When they initially benched Slaton (:rolleyes:), they played Ryan Moats, and he got most of the work the next week, too. It's entirely possible for either Brown or Moats to go off, but it's a big gamble. I'd only roll the dice there if I didn't have any other reliable options.
Yknow...............I think Im ready for some football.
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Powdered Water
12-06-09, 12:37 PM
I am on a serious silent movie kick right now so I'm not going to have time to get my picks in this week, I'll just see you guys on ST. I'm sure you'll all survive, somehow.
Understandable. I guess I can't complain about movies coming first. I would look silly.
Update for Mikey and Darcy, by the way: Michael Turner out (as expected), and DeAngelo Williams (less expected), too.
EDIT: this is crazy good news for Jay/Gadsden Flag/upStomp, who now has Jonathan Stewart starting all by his lonesome against the terrible Tampa Bay run defense, and needs a win to have a chance at making the playoffs.
Im still waffling between Chris Brown or Kenny Britt? I wont consider Crabtree because Vernon Davis is the #1 target in San Fran.
Britt will be the #1 or #2 passing target vs Indy, but the Titans have to run the ball alot to win. Brown is going up against the 10th ranked rush defense in Jacksonville. This is a toughie. Actually deciding between two players liike this is alot harder than choosing between two stars as theres much less info to go on.
EDIT IN - Im going with Britt simply because of the Titans/Colts hype.
Also Gadsden Jay Reggie Bush is in too.
AUGH THIS IS KILLING ME! Now I want to run Benson Barber and Brown, and sit Britt. Damn they just allow too many players on a team.....options overwhelming...
Piledriver
12-06-09, 03:51 PM
Well we are finally here people, week 13, the final week of the regular season and before I continue, I'd just like to say that out of all my fantasy football leagues, this by far is the best and my favorite! I've had a lot of fun and enjoyed myself immensely this year and would like to thank everyone for helping to make this such a great league! Regardless of what happens today, I've had a great time and I hope everyone else feels the same. I'm already excited for next season and since I had so much fun doing this, I may actually try Fantasy Baseball next season, so look out!!
Well, I don't have much time before I have to go watch the game, so without any more senseless yapping, here are my week 13 picks:
PW's Odd Squad vs. TONGO -
In his final chance to play spoiler, can Tongo get himself a big win AND get some one else into the playoffs? Well here is one person that thinks thats an actual possibility. First off, I just found out Brady injured his finger the other day, and although he is playing, that may limit his accuracy, distance, etc... so it could hinder PW from getting the normal numbers from the Brady/Welker connection he has become accustomed to. With Rice, Fitzgerald and Jones all having tough matchups going this weekend too, it isn't going to be easy for the Odd Squad to get points, but Tongo is really gonna need his team to overproduce to seal the deal. Favre and Harvin could do well against the Desert Pigeons, but Mason and Barber are gonna have uphill battles and Chris Brown may not tally much splitting carries 3 ways, but you never know. I really need you to win Tongo and win BIG!! GOOD LUCK DUDE!!
After harvesting his crop of four leaf clovers in Farmville, Tongo gets lucky and pulls off the impossible!!!
Flash vs. Team Darcy -
Here we have a game where I believe Yahoos projected points score may actually have gotten it right. This should be a very close game, even though I think Peyton Manning is gonna have a good game today and Jason Witten and Miles Austin could both have good numbers, I think Wayne, Housh and Marshall could offset the gains Flash gets from his best players and Gonzalez, Johnson and Crosby could put her over the top. Flash needs Norwood to come up big to win this with Henderson adding above average points to keep Darcy from snatching the victory.
Flash wins his final regular season game!!
The Tateraters vs. Wolverines -
This game comes down to which Jay Cutler shows up to play the Rams. The Jay Cutler that can throw for 380 yards and 4 touchdowns, no picks and runs the clock like a General, or the Cutler that has shown up to play the last several weeks that throws picks, trips over his own feet and can't find an open receiver with a GPS tracker. If the good Cutler shows up, the Wolverines should win, if the bad one does.... :(.
Cutler is playing the Rams. 'Nuff said.
Hired Goons vs. Slug's Sweeties -
The Goons took advantage of Matt Ryan getting turf toe after throwing 1 pass and totally hosed my playoff chances, but maybe he can repay the favor by somehow thrashing the Slug this weekend and maybe opening the door into the playoffs for me or Flag? Thats a big maybe. I don't think Baltimore is gonna hold the Packers down offensively as much as the sports analysts are saying, so the Goons have a chance to pull one out, but I think its gonna be an uphill battle. Chris Johnson is on FIRE and I think Schaub will do well this afternoon with the playoffs on the line for the Texans, which is going to add-up to major points for the Sweeties. The Goons have to hope Vernon Davis and Roy Williams come up HUGE, or its lights out for his team.
Slug's Sweeties does their part, and gets the “W”
Da Bears vs. The Replicants -
With the only setback for the Bots being he may have to play in week 1 of the playoffs, he has no reason to sweat this week and with all those “P” and “Q's” on Da Bears roster, he may win this one easily. Without Ryan throwing for the Falcons, Whites numbers may not be that impressive and with DeAngelo Williams not playing, there isn't going to be a lot to worry the Replicants this week. As long as McNobb does his job, it should be smooth sailing for Seds squad.
The Replicants retire another skinjob
11 Angry Men vs. I-L-M-F -
Another close matchup as projected by Yahoo, but as usual with the Angry Men, it all comes down to how the Saints produce against their opponent, and luckily for the Angry squad, they face a very beatable Redskins team this week. Although the Washington Defense statistically ranks high against the pass, I don't think that stat is viable in this case. The Saints may go undefeated in the regular season with a very winable schedule for the remainder of the season and that bodes well for the Men. The Fox has a good chance of winning with Williams going up against the Pats and LT rolling into Cleveland, both potential big days for his runningbacks, but the Fox really needs his receivers, swingslot and mainly Tony Romo to come up huge to wrangle a win from the best team in the league. It'll be close...for a while anyway.
11 Angry Men the only team to have double digit victories this season!!
Beantown Champs vs. Gadsden Flag -
If either one of us can win, and win big, and a couple of key loses happen today, one of us could actually make the playoffs!! But there are a lot of “ifs” involved and it probably isn't worth worrying about at this point, but it sure would be nice if either Jay or I could somehow sneak in.*sigh*. Oh well. Although I'm sure I won't be “blownout”, I don't think I have a great chance of winning this matchup based on my quarterback situation and Jay has All-Day going as well as Stewart getting all the reps since Williams is out. It may come down to Flacco for me on monday night, but the Flag will probably have this game in hand well before then. Good Luck to Jay, because if he does win, I hope he makes it into the playoffs.
Gadsden Flag hoping for a miracle loss and ALOT of points in a sweet victory against the Champs.
Well there you have it, my final regular season predictions of the 2009 season. Good Luck to everyone and I look forward to seeing all of you here next year!!
spudracer
12-06-09, 08:20 PM
My my. Not only was I treated to a Bronco-infused whooping, in person. I got to watch my team not have a K or a T/E. Either football is bad luck for me, or I'm bad luck for football.
Well, you may be off the hook for last week. If the matchups shake out the way they look like they will, then Darcy probably would've made it at 8-5 or 7-6, which means her win last week would only affect seeding. But we'll see.
BobbyB whooped me fairly decently; little over 30 points. Romo, Holmes, and Jacobs all went off and Maroney, Clark, and McCoy all had big letdown games. By the by, Courtney told me to play Hightower over Maroney, and though Arizona hasn't kicked off yet, it looks like that'll probably end up being the right call. She's right again.
Anyway, if Sedai wins while scoring at least 46 points with his remaining players, he'll take the #1 seed and I'll be the #2 seed. If he wins but doesn't score enough, I'll be #1 and he'll be #2. And if he loses, it looks like I'll be #1 and LT will take the second Bye at #2.
After that, the seeding's a big mashup of wins and tiebreakers. I'll see how the games tonight turn out and post a quick summary tomorrow. Odds are that five of the six teams are pretty much set (though not their order, of course), and that we're probably just waiting to see if Slug wins and takes the last spot, or loses and lets the winner of the Jay/Pete game in.
WBadger
12-06-09, 09:26 PM
I can't believe I am currently ahead by 9 points (especially after benching Marshawn Lynch), though the lead will disappear after the Cardinals-Vikings game and perhaps re-appear after the Monday Night game?
No, the real reason I came to this thread was to let Slug know that I am trying my best to spoil any playoff hopes. Just kidding, best of luck. ;)
I am just happy my team finally came together, if only there were like 15 more games I might make the playoffs.
Looks like Bobby's going to finish with the high score. That means 3 of my 4 losses this year will have come at the hands of the week's highest-scoring team (I know, I know; poor me, right?).
The playoff picture is just about in focus, but not quite. Looks like 5 of the 6 slots are pretty much locked down, with three teams fighting for the last one; Slug's Sweeties, Gadsden Flag, and Beantown Champs. Given the point totals, it looks like Slug's going to keep a healthy point lead on both of them, so if Slug wins, he's the last team in. Otherwise, it's the winner of the Gadsden/Beantown showdown.
So, here are the two crucial games:
Gadsden Flag vs. Beantown Champs
Five of us voted on the site, and it looks like I was the only one who picked Gadsden (though Pete did in this thread, as well). Looking good for Jay at the moment, as Beantown needs 27.31 points out of Joe Flacco tonight, a total he's only reached twice this year.
Slug's Sweeties vs. Hired Goons
The other crucial matchup. Slug leads by about 24 and still has Mark Clayton going, but Hired Goons has Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Willis McGahee going, and Rodgers has been a stunningly consistent fantasy scorer this season. Yahoo predicts that the three of them will be worth about 40, and I think that's pretty likely. Even if McGahee puts up a 0 and Clayton tosses up 15, it's not hard to imagine Rodgers and Jennings not combining for 35+.
So, simply put: it looks like a pretty safe bet that Badger is going to take this game against Slug, which means Flacco's performance will probably end up deciding the final playoff spot. Anything can happen (Nobody Knows Anything!), but Jay's looking like the favorite to snatch that final spot. Good luck to you all!
On that note, on with the other game still up in the air; it doesn't have playoff spot implications, but it will affect seeding:
Da Bears vs. Da Replicants
Seds needs 23.21 points out of Donald Driver, a total he's reached just once this year...but it was last week. If he gets it, Seds is the #2 seed and gets a Bye. If he doesn't, LT gets the second Bye, barring a crazy comeback by Spud.
And that's that. Assuming Slug loses, Jay wins, and Mikey hangs on against Seds, the playoff picture would look like this:
11 Angry Men (9-4)
Wolverines (9-4)
PW's Odd Squad (8-5)
The Replicants (8-5)
Team Darcy (8-5)
Gadsden Flag (8-5)
That means it'd be Odd Squad vs. Gadsden and Replicants vs. Darcy in the first round. This isn't set in stone, but it looks pretty likely. We'll know for sure tonight!
Terrible. Just terrible. Just like clockwork, my team is falling apart in week 13, the same as last season. Did I call the Vick thing in week one or what? He poached two TDs from my QB yesterday, a QB that is now fired from the Replicants. I will never play McNabb again in my life. He has always been one of my least favorite football players, and this solidifies that stance. Welcome, Alex Smith. ;)
Oh and....go Driver! :D
Yeah, pretty much all the top teams faded down the stretch. You, me, and Darcy all started really strong but ranged from bad to mediocre in the last month or so. It ended up being very, very competitive. At least Calvin Johnson's back and tearing it up again; not a moment too soon for the Replicants, I'm sure.
upStomp
12-07-09, 01:57 PM
Who's gonna be the first to take a look at my bench and punch me in the neck?
I will if you would like Jaybird? LOL :rotfl:
Yeah, pretty much all the top teams faded down the stretch. You, me, and Darcy all started really strong but ranged from bad to mediocre in the last month or so. It ended up being very, very competitive. At least Calvin Johnson's back and tearing it up again; not a moment too soon for the Replicants, I'm sure.
Well, bad news there, too. Stafford is hurt again, so Megatron stays on the bench. Whenever Culpepper plays, Megatron has a slow day. :(
Go Jackson? ;)
PW's Odd Squad vs. TONGO -
In his final chance to play spoiler, can Tongo get himself a big win AND get some one else into the playoffs? Well here is one person that thinks thats an actual possibility. First off, I just found out Brady injured his finger the other day, and although he is playing, that may limit his accuracy, distance, etc... so it could hinder PW from getting the normal numbers from the Brady/Welker connection he has become accustomed to. With Rice, Fitzgerald and Jones all having tough matchups going this weekend too, it isn't going to be easy for the Odd Squad to get points, but Tongo is really gonna need his team to overproduce to seal the deal. Favre and Harvin could do well against the Desert Pigeons, but Mason and Barber are gonna have uphill battles and Chris Brown may not tally much splitting carries 3 ways, but you never know. I really need you to win Tongo and win BIG!! GOOD LUCK DUDE!!
....and then reality struck.
Of course if somehow Willis McGahee and Ray Rice trade their fantasy totals and Derrick Masion has a 20 some point day and this would be while the Green Bay defense racked up another 20 some points maybe then I could win. Yeah I caught a buttwhoopin :yup: Glad youre in PW. -Throws a beer bottle at one of the Odd Squad-
My predictions mostly came true with Dolphins beating the Pats, but I couldnt predict just how bad my team would underperform. Marion Barber, Heath Miller, Chris Brown, and even Gostkowski killed me totalling 19.60 points!!!
I was watching some of the Minn/Arizona game with my mom who knows little of football, and she kept saying "That guy is an awesome player and shows heart" Of course she was talking about Fitzgerald. I like Brett but sometimes when he has a bad game he dont fool around. :sick: Great season though I sure sucked. I sucked a bunch.
Powdered Water
12-07-09, 09:05 PM
You didn't suck, but hopefully you learned that giving your guys a chance to do something before you dump them is important.
spudracer
12-08-09, 08:43 AM
In other news, anyone needing any of my players, feel free to PM me. I'll release them.
I don't really think that'd be fair, actually (and probably not plausible, unless they had a really high waiver priority and wanted just one of them).
I'm not sure if Yahoo has a roster lock on, but a lot of leagues do, to prevent this sort of thing.
Yeah - that's a big no-no! No releasing players before the play-offs!
No losers playoffs?! BOOOOO!!!! I should file a discrimination lawsuit against Yahoo.
Well in 2 other leagues Im in the running at least. The 3rd league is my all Buccaneer team which might have a shot at winning sunday against a real weak fantasy team, BUT the Bucs have to play the Jets.
My NFL.Com team 10-3, and leading the league
http://30908313846.football.nfl.com/teams/page
QB Brees
WR Miles Austin
WR Greg Jennings
WR Derrick Mason
RB Ricky Williams
RB Jamaal Charles
TE Vernon Davis
K Lawrence Tynes though was Carney till last weekend
D New Orlean Saints
My other Yahoo team 5-4, and 4th place. Actually this teams more loaded except at QB. Never underestimate the value of a good QB Oh Ida loved to have had this team in our league
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/1053056/10
QB Alex Smith or Kyle Orton. Nobody would trade me a QB, and heres why...
WR Hines Ward
WR Andre Johnson
WR Sidney Rice
(bench - DeSean Jackson or Robert Meachum)
RB MJD
RB Ray Rice
(bench - Kevin Smith & Tim Hightower)
TE Dallas Clark
K Matt Prater or Carney
Def Baltimore Ravens
I failed to make the playoffs.
What a great season though.
The most important thing is that I had fun with my MoFo friends.
And I did.
Congratulations to the playoff teams, and good luck.
One last thing.
I'm disappointed my team lost this plast week.
!@#*!
Well, sounds like Steve Slaton's probably out for the year. Lovely. :rolleyes: Guy was putting up some great numbers for me when he was actually out there, but now my fate in the playoffs will rest with the likes of L. McCoy, T. Hightower, and L. Maroney. That's going to make for some pretty excruciating choices, each of them with the potential to end my season. Eek.
EDIT: forgot to mention that Slaton was slated (heh) to play the Seahawks and Rams in Week 15/16, too. Ouch.
I failed to make the playoffs.
What a great season though.
The most important thing is that I had fun with my MoFo friends.
And I did.
Congratulations to the playoff teams, and good luck.
One last thing.
I'm disappointed my team lost this plast week.
!@#*!
Tough break, Slug. You had a good year and I daresay you'd have nabbed one of the last couple of playoff spots if Westbrook had stayed healthy. Congrats on a good year. :up:
Yeah - I lost Slaton in my other league... Good thing I have Rice, Mendenhall, Forte, and Williams on my roster ;)
Tough decisions this week! Arg! Fretting over a couple of slots...
For what it's worth, and not that I think this is the source of your fretting, but I would absolutely play Calvin Johnson this week over some of your other WR options. I think one of the MoFo leaguers (but maybe I'm thinking of someone else) said something about him struggling with Culpepper in there, but I checked it out and he does quite well when tossed into Daunte's inferno.
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