The 2009 Baseball Thread

[Holden Pike]

ADMIN EDIT: this thread was created with shouts from The Shoutbox (http://www.movieforums.com/community/shoutbox.php), thus explaining its rather abrupt beginning.

Yankees are going to sign C.C. Sabathia. Seven-years, $161-million.

[Sedai]

I saw that F-Rod move for the Mets yesterday, as well. They definitely needed that...

[Yoda]

Yankees are going to sign C.C. Sabathia. Seven-years, $161-million.
Yikes. I know of a number of Yankee-haters who were actively rooting for this to happen.

As great as Sabathia is, they just spent $161 million on a 300-lb pitcher. He's 28, so he's right in his prime, but this deal is going to look horrendous when they're still shelling out $23 million a year when he's 34.

This is a good move for the 2009 and 2010 Yankees, and probably a very bad move for each team thereafter. You'd think they'd have learned from Giambi, El Duque, et al. I don't know that there's a single one of these megadeals that the signing team hasn't come to regret.

[Yoda]

In a related shout, how about I start a 2009 baseball thread? :)

[Sedai]

I doubt they regretted A-Rod...

[Holden Pike]

Yankees are going to sign C.C. Sabathia. Seven-years, $161-million.
Yikes. I know of a number of Yankee-haters who were actively rooting for this to happen.

As great as Sabathia is, they just spent $161 million on a 300-lb pitcher. He's 28, so he's right in his prime, but this deal is going to look horrendous when they're still shelling out $23 million a year when he's 34.

On the other hand David Wells pitched well into his late 30s very heavy (some of them for The Yankees, including a Perfect Game not only overweight but with a hangover), so it's not unprecedented.

Though I don't recommend the hangover thing.

[Holden Pike]

Yeah, and the Yankees don't regret the A-Rod signing - fans be damned. I don't think they regret the Mussina deal at all. That they didn't translate into three or five more World Series wins over the past seven or eight years doesn't change the fact that those two free-agent signings have both worked out, by in large. A-Rod has won two MVPs and hit a couple hundred home runs already. I know the A-Rod haters are legion, though I've never understood the venom myself. But you can't argue with the pure numbers he's put up.

Anyway, obviously time will tell with Sabathia. There isn't a team in the league, no matter how strong they may think their staff is, that wouldn't be better tomorrow with Sabathia in the rotation. Whether he remains among the two or three best pitchers in the game for the next two years or five years or seven years, he's a guy I'd want on my team.

[Yoda]

On the other hand David Wells pitched well into his late 30s very heavy (some of them for The Yankees, including a Perfect Game not only overweight but with a hangover), so it's not unprecedented.
Wells pitched well for his moderate salary, sure, but the difference in salary is the entire point. And while I don't have the info in front of me, I'd be stunned if anyone signed Wells post-30 to any contract longer than 3 years.

I don't think they regret the Mussina deal at all. That they didn't translate into three or five more World Series wins over the past seven or eight years doesn't change the fact that those two free-agent signings have both worked out, by in large.
Depends on what you mean by "worked out." For George and Hank, it seems to mean getting production out of that player for a couple of years, and to hell with the payroll five years from now. To most other teams, it's usually about the value and cost of the entire contract.

I don't know if they should regret Mussina's contracts (he had two), but they haven't gotten a great deal out of them, either. He had league average ERAs in both 2004 and 2005, and a half-run over the AL average in 2007. But he had some very, very good years, too, so I'll certainly grant that they didn't get hosed.

Note, though, that nearly all of Mussina's best years came with Baltimore. That's pretty typical: the team that signs a guy to a huge contract via free agency is paying in part for the great years he's already had.

And for every Mussina, who performs roughly in line with his compensation, there's an Irabu or a Giambi. If you take a lot of huge risks, I'm sure some of them will pay off, but that doesn't make the high-risk philosophy a sound one.

A-Rod has won two MVPs and hit a couple hundred home runs already. I know the A-Rod haters are legion, though I've never understood the venom myself. But you can't argue with the pure numbers he's put up.
I love A-Rod, so I'm certainly not going to argue with you there. I think a lot of very silly fans are missing out on properly enjoying his once-in-a-generation talent.

That said, sure they don't regret the signing now. It's only been a few years, and the reason these deals are usually bad is because they absolutely murder the team in the last few years. A-Rod's goes until he's 42, if I recall correctly. And I don't think anyone would pretend that he's going to be putting up $25 million worth of numbers as he approaches the big 4-0.

And let's not forget that the Yankees traded for Rodriguez mid-deal. The Rangers are the ones who signed him, and they sure regretted it -- they had to eat $67 million of his contract just to trade him. And in addition to taking on the salary, the Yankees had to give up Alfonso Soriano. So there are plenty of mitigating factors in play here, and we're still 4-5 years away from the season when A-Rod gets paid over $1 million per homer.

Even if A-Rod defies all this, and ends up being worth his salary very late into his career, I'd probably want to chalk it up to Rodriguez just being a total freak.

Anyway, obviously time will tell with Sabathia. There isn't a team in the league, no matter how strong they may think their staff is, that wouldn't be better tomorrow with Sabathia in the rotation. Whether he remains among the two or three best pitchers in the game for the next two years or five years or seven years, he's a guy I'd want on my team.
Sure, but judging a deal isn't binary. It's not like if a player's good, it's always good to have signed him, no matter the terms of the deal. The signing is better or worse depending on what they give up, either in players, in money, or in monetary flexibility. Sabathia's cost isn't just in money -- it's in whatever player they don't sign because his deal's on the books in 2014, too.

[Swedish Chef]

Ugh, on behalf of all Mets fans, I'd just like to ask that the '09 baseball season be canceled to give us another year to regroup and console one another. The last two years have been tough and I don't think K-Rod is the answer. I'm so tired of almost every player on this team now except for maybe like Santana and Beltran. It's a horrible feeling, rooting for a team when you can't stand the individual players.

Anyway, I like Sabathia a lot and it does my Yankee-hating heart good to know that their ace had absolutely no desire to pitch for them. And even though he is a very good pitcher, he barely cracks the top-ten at his position in my mind, which makes their $160 million contract all the more preposterous.

For the record, I think the top-ten MLB starting pitchers are....

1. Roy Halladay
2. Johan Santana
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Roy Oswalt
5. Jake Peavy
6. Brandon Webb
7. Cole Hamels
8. Ben Sheets
9. John Lackey
0. Scott Kazmir

And, maybe, objectively, you could swap out Sheets/Lackey/Kazmir for Sabathia or a few others, but I don't think CC is better than any of these 10. I realize the Yanks had a need and filled it accordingly, but there comes a point when the money is just too out-there. Giving CC Sabathia the richest deal for a pitcher, ever, is stupid.

But then, maybe I'm just a grumbly, douchey Mets fan.

[DominoDeja]

George rules.

nuff said as they say

[Swedish Chef]

Anybody have any ridiculously early World Series predictions? I know I do!

Red Sox over the Giants in 6 games. Remember that, chumps.

[Yoda]

Okay, so, while I don't necessarily blame Yankee fans for talking themselves into the first half of the Sabathia contract (and thinking it outweighs the drag of the second half), I can't imagine too many of them are happy with the the Burnett signing.

$82.5 million over 5 years, for a guy who's topped 200 innings in 3 of his 8 full major league seasons. He's coming off his highest total -- 221 innings, but I'd say that's more likely to be a negative than a plus. From the data I've seen, pitchers who set new IP marks tend to fall of the next year, either through fatigue or injury. Funnily, this goes for Sabathia, too, who threw a ridiculous 253 innings last year. Of course, he threw 241 the year before and it didn't kill him, but that's almost 500 innings in two seasons. This can only end two ways: scaling back significantly, or an injury.

So, the 2009 Yanks aren't looking too bad, but the 2012 Yanks are probably going to have to trick these guys into violating their ethics clauses.

[Yoda]

Anybody have any ridiculously early World Series predictions? I know I do!

Red Sox over the Giants in 6 games. Remember that, chumps.
Ugh, who knows. As long as the playoffs stay the way they are, all you can do is predict the playoff teams and then pick one at random.

If I had to pick, though, I think Philly could put up a pretty impressive title defense. And I think the Cubs are still really flippin' good.

[Yoda]

So, we're underway, and storylines and themes are starting to emerge. Both the Red Sox and the Yankees are underperforming, but neither need panic yet. Still, I think it's safe to say both are going to be a lot less invincible than usual over the rest of the season, though they'll be in the hunt the whole way, I expect.

Marlins sprinted out to an 11-1 start, before running into that behemoth of a baseball team...the feared...the respected...Pittsburgh Pirates!

I nearly said that with a straight face. So close. Anyway, the Buccos swept baseball's best team in the early going and are 9-6 behind some very strong pitching and an above-average offense. As a Pirates fan, this is a very exciting start. Talking to a fellow fan, I likened it to Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff: as long as we don't look down, we won't fall. 'Course, we probably will look down at some point, but if the Pirates were going to actually win more than 80 games one of these years, I imagine the beginning of such a season would look a lot like this one. So huzzah to that.

[Sedai]

I have watched a few games over the past week, as well as the Bruins in the Semis for Hockey.

I think both the Sox and the Yanks are both starting to lock it down this week, with quiet players coming out of their slumps, and defenses gelling a bit better. Papi, Jeter, Texiera, Ellsbury and others are coming alive, and soon enough, the 'ol juggernauts will be dominating again.

The Rays are for real though, so the division will stay interesting all season.

[Powdered Water]

Holds, you still driving the A-rod bandwagon? Even you have to be close to admitting that this guy is a complete and total 'Epic tool', don't ya?

Don't ya?

[Yoda]

Meh. I'm so bummed about the A-Rod thing. I never wanted to have a beer with him or anything, but I was still in awe of his abilities. And, to be fair, it's not as if the people who were maligning him had any idea he was using steroids.

Anyway, whether there's more to the whole sordid thing or not, it's still a huge bummer.

[Powdered Water]

I know I come off a bitter Mariner fan when I insult A-Roid, but even if he never stuck a single needle in his ass I would still dislike the guy immensely. I've been watching him since his professional career began, so its not like I'm just pulling stuff out of my ass when I bad mouth him. To me, he's the personification of why so many others can't stand pro sports and the over paid, over pampered guys that make up these leagues.

I think I've been around here long enough now for most of you to realize that I try pretty hard to not "hate" on guys for the most part. I do realize it doesn't get me anywhere in the long run. But this guy... he takes the cake in a lot of ways. This is a guy that demanded one million bucks when the Mariners drafted him or else he was going to college. Never played a single game in the bigs, but demanded the money anyway. Sure, it turned out that he was worth it, sort of. If he doesn't turn his post season numbers around pretty soon though he will go down as one of the biggest stars in history that could never seem to get a hit when it mattered during a REAL game. Yankee fans know when the real season starts and I know for a fact that hardcore Yankee fans can't stand the guy but they put up with him because let's face it they are stuck with him till the bitter end now. No one is going to trade for the guy, no one.

I find it poetic that its looking like he's probably been on the juice since he was in high school and now the rest of the world is finding out just how big a douche bag this dude really is. If even half the stuff that has been written about him is true then I hope he gets everything he deserves. It will never happen of course, but I would love to see him stripped of all his stats and have him start from scratch. If he did that I would believe he has some integrity. He won't though. Baseball protects all of their biggest losers and right now A-Roid is at the pinnacle.

[mark f]

My first reaction to the Manny Fiasco was shock, outrage and anger... at MLB. After researching it a bit more, I have to blame Manny and I'll understand when he gets grouped into the Juicers since he probably is one (or at least an idiot). I just don't like the cloak-and-dagger way the "results" has been handed out so far. The Dodgers have a terrific group of mostly young everyday players, but Manny seemed to be their unifying core. Now, I realize that the Dodgers are still playing the lowly Nationals and they're up 6-1, but I'm beginning to get the feeling that the Dodgers can use these 50 games to build up their confidence so that when Manny returns, they'll be even better. At least I hope that's the way it turns out. I do realize that baseball is the most grueling sport there is, not just for the team but for the fans. They can't keep winning at the current pace.

[BobbyB]

Rangers win again today! Now sitting at 22-14. What a start for them.

Hopefully this pitching can keep up.

Elvis Andrus has been huge for us defensively this year.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v169/dsheppard/boardimages/gifs/baseball/andrus_defense.gif

What a ballplayer that guy is.