View Full Version : MoFo Fantasy Football - Week 14 (Playoff Scenarios)
MoFoloha, MoFos.
Well, after over 3 months of mud, sweat, and beers, the inaugural MoFo Fantasy Football regular season is coming to a close. We've played 13 games to try to separate this year's wheat from this year's chaffe, and it looks like we'll need one more. Here's how it all shakes out:
Swedish's Flying Mongeeseseses, at 10-3, sit atop the standings and are the only team to have formally clinched a playoff spot. He's followed by PW and myself at 9-4 each, and then Sedai's Replicants and TONGO's, er, TONGO, at 8-5. That means we have four teams vying for three spots.
PW and I play each other this week, so the winner's in the playoffs.
After that, it gets tricky. The loser of our matchup may find themselves in a tie for the final playoff spot if either Sedai or TONGO win. And if they both win, there'd be a three-way tie. All such ties are broken by point totals, which shake out like this:
PW (1463.22 points)
Sedai (1443.58 points)
Yoda (1435.96 points)
TONGO (1343.74 points)
TONGO's a little over 70 points behind the next-lowest of the four, which means he'd almost certainly lose any tiebreaker. Thanks to a huge week (and a big Monday night game from Slaton), after trailing significantly all year, PW, Sedai and I are all within a stone's throw of each other.
So, here are the scenarios for each of the four teams:
PW's Odd Squad (Powdered Water)
Gets In With: a win this week. OR a loss from either Sedai or TONGO. OR with a loss, wins from both Sedai and TONGO, and by scoring within approx. 20 points of Sedai's team (or within approx. 120 points of TONGO's team).
11 Angry Men (Yoda)
Gets In With: a win this week. OR a loss from either Sedai or TONGO. OR with a loss, wins from both Sedai and TONGO, and by outscoring Sedai's team by approx. 8 points (or within approx. 72 points of TONGO's team).
The Replicants (Sedai)
Gets In With: a TONGO loss. OR a win, a TONGO Win, and scoring within approx. 100 points of TONGO. OR a win, a TONGO win, a loss from either PW or myself (guaranteed), and outscoring either PW by approx. 20, or scoring within approx. 8 points of me, depending on which of us loses.
TONGO (TONGO)
Gets In With: A win and a Sedai loss. OR a win, a Sedai win, and outscoring Sedai by approx. 100 points. OR a win, a Sedai win, and outscoring either PW by approx. 120 points, or myself by approx. 70 points, depending on which of us loses.
Things to Watch For
As you can see, TONGO's point deficit looms large. Outscoring anyone by 70 is pretty hard to fathom, so his most realistic path to the playoffs is to win, and for Sedai to lose. That's the only plausible scenario that doesn't result in a Swedish/PW/Me/Sedai playoffs.
If that doesn't happen, we'll just be playing to see who matches up with who in the first round. Swedish has 76 fewer points than PW and 48 fewer points than myself, so if he loses, the winner of our game would almost certainly be the #1 seed.
The permutations are endless when it comes to who might face who, and to be honest, I'm not sure who I'd want to draw, anyway. I think PW's team is probably the best in the league, but Swedish's is a complete wild card; Westbrook can swing an entire week by himself.
Sedai's struggling, but Manning's going up against Detroit in the opening playoff round, so you don't want any part of that.
Should be interesting to see how it all shakes out!
Swedish Chef
12-02-08, 01:43 PM
I don't want to say who I'd rather face in the first round, because when I inevitably end up losing to that team in the first round, I'll look like an idiot. I will say it doesn't really matter what seed myself or anybody else winds up getting, because the top five teams are relatively equal right now. And, yeah, my team is capable of putting up 75 points one week and 150 the next, so I don't know what to expect in the playoffs from the Mongooses.
Good luck this week, MoFo's.
I hope my team decides to show up this week!
Last week screwed me. If I hadnt have played Jacobs when Coughlin benched him before the game I wouldve beaten those damn Face Huggers. 70 points is too many to overcome in one week imo. Maybe its more fitting though for 4 diehard MoFos get to the playoffs. Yeah Im all about harmony yknow. Damn you Tom Coughlin!
I am still nervous. Just like last season, in the same week, I am fretting about my bloody wideouts. In short, they suck. Since the emergence of the stellar Jets running game, Favre has become much more conservative in his passing game, with both Coles and Cotchery doing much less than earlier in the season. Fitzpatrick is just an awful QB, and has sent all the Bengal skill players plummeting in the rankings, so Housh is a turd now, too. My shining hope is Mr. Domenik Hixon, handcuff for Mr. Plaxico Burress.
Given my options, I think sending Housh to the Pine this week with Hixon subbing is the plan, as Housh faces The Colts, who's secondary has been stalwart in the past few games. The Colts offense was abysmal this past week, but they still won, and the secondary was a huge part of that. I have a feeling Fitzy is going to be even worse than usual this week, so I will come in swinging with Cotchery and Hixon...
I think that's probably the right move, Mike. Burress isn't coming back. I think you'll probably be okay this week either way; I think Manning'll get right back on track. Like I said above: I don't want any part of Peyton fighting for playoff seeding against that schedule.
Amazingly, after hemming and hawing about it the last couple weeks, it looks like I'm actually going to start the league's other Peyton: Peyton Hillis. He got EVERY carry last week and has three great games in a row with point totals of 20, 17, and 19, and he goes up against Kansas City this week.
With Grant having a bad, short game (he has a minor injury), it looks like it's Addai and Hillis this week, with Slaton likely in the swing slot. I've got a ridiculous number of options there, as I'll be sitting Grant, Hines Ward, and Colston. It's kind of a shame, but I'll take it.
Last week screwed me. If I hadnt have played Jacobs when Coughlin benched him before the game I wouldve beaten those damn Face Huggers. 70 points is too many to overcome in one week imo. Maybe its more fitting though for 4 diehard MoFos get to the playoffs. Yeah Im all about harmony yknow. Damn you Tom Coughlin!
Don't give up just yet. :) Making up 70 points would be unbelievable, to be sure, but winning combined with a Sedai loss isn't at all unthinkable, and that would get you into the playoffs.
Hillis is the real deal. If his match-up is good, play him...
I wish my match-ups were better this week... Not terrible, but, not great...
"Bradshaw looks highly unlikely to play against the Redskins. Brandon Jacobs is expected to start but also isn't 100%. We'll confirm his status before 1PM. Derrick Ward could get more work than usual."
"Coach Sean Payton says the Saints' offensive game plan going into Week 13 "was really to feature Pierre (Thomas) and Reggie (Bush)."
Ultimately, Thomas emerged as the lead back and generated 54 yards and a TD on 12 touches. "Pierre by far, or by and large, was our best option on the first- and second-down snaps," Payton said. Thomas is going to keep a major role as New Orleans' goal-line and early-down back down the stretch."
Bush rushed for zero yards on three carries, and dropped over half of his pass targets. He looks like the '07 disappointment again, running side to side, blowing timing on pass routes, and generally playing like ****. Ward is a consistent flex play, even when Jacobs is 100%. If Bush gets back into shape for the playoffs, I may play him, but, he is far too risky at right now...
That does it. Sorry Reggie Bush, but, I think you lost your job, both in real life, and on my team. The Ward era has begun in swing slot nation...
In a sense Im looking at this as not just beating Darcy, but hoping for a NFL playoff scenario spot with Sedai losing, AND THEN gun for as many points as possible like college ball to go up in the rankings. Please! Somebody let me borrow Brett Favre!
Lets break it down...
Minnesotas Defense, and Adrian Peterson are going up against the Lions. Come to poppa now thats what Im talking about! 35 points
Matt Bryant should kick for 10 points vs Carolina.
Reggie Wayne WR for the Colts has had two awful weeks and is against Cincinatti (Yes!) 15 points
Brandon Jacobs vs Philladelphia 20 points (my hunch)
Roddy White vs the Saints 11 points (thats generous).
Bo Scaife TE for Titans vs Clevland 7 points.
Eddie Royal and the Broncos vs the Chiefs?! 15 points,
and then theres the dreaded decision of them all in quarterback - Kyle Orton Vs Jaguars, Pennington Vs the Bills, or Garcia vs Carolina. Bills weakest D of the 3, and Chad Pennington 15 points.
Roughly 125-130 points, and thats rounding up. With what the Replicants have in talent I predict he will beat me in points this week. So unless the Sedais crew catch the flu he should beat FaceHuggers, and then make it a lock.
Just when its all said and done....dont let the hand puppet win guys. Ok? Creepidy assed hand puppet thingy leading the league...:)
Swedish Chef
12-03-08, 10:22 PM
Say hi to your mother for me
Chris - Check your line-up. Steelers are playing in heavy wind and snow this week, apparently. Downgrade all air attack players accordingly (IOW - Play Colston & Thig)
Yeah, I more or less decided on Thigpen yesterday and just changed it, lest I forget. Thanks for the reminder. :)
The Colston thing is still a tough call. Slaton/Hillis and Fitzgerald/Johnson are all no-brainers this week, so it's Colston or Addai. Addai's got a great matchup, but there's rumblings that Rhodes may get a fair number of his carries, and Colston has been so hit-or-miss the last several weeks, so this is a tough one.
Yeah, just don't put Ward in that swing. I think I will actually play Bush this week, as after watching some highlights, he looked on his game, but there was heavy wind in Tampa Bay. I will give the PPR machine one the benefit of the doubt and run him in my swing vs a pretty poor defense.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 12:13 PM
Yes indeed good sir. I got my big foam finger right here next to a tub of Doritos and Salsa. I painted my face with every color from every player's colors on my team. I look like a moron. Its all good though.
I hope the NO/Atlanta game is on here today, should be a good un'.
I am really hoping my team shows today!
Very important week!
Aye, if you win, you're pretty much in. All you need to avoid is a loss, coupled with a TONGO win.
Thinking of ordering pizza, and going back-and-forth on Addai and Colston for my last slot. I think my success rate on these impossible last-minute choices is something like 1 out of 4 this year.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 02:00 PM
I'm not real happy about playing Portis today but my only other option is Reefer man, Ricky Williams who is celebrating a homecoming of sorts by playing their game in Toronto today. Ack... I don't like either option. I'll stick with Portis I guess. Everytime I think he's finally hit the wall he scores so maybe he'll be alright.
Yeah, I think Portis is still your best option there.
Meanwhile, Calvin Johnson having a completely normal Calvin Johnson game; through 2 and a half quarters, 1 catch for 8 yards. Then a 70 yard TD catch. 2 catches, 78 yards and a TD. All his stat lines look like that.
Big day for Manning, and a strong day for Bush so far, too. The Face Huggers are gonna need some huge numbers the rest of the way to come back, but right now Sedai's playoff prospects are looking quite good.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 04:07 PM
I think I'm on the verge of having the lowest point total of the season. If I didn't have Turner I would be almost sure of it.
You've still got Cassel, Boldin, and Portis going later, so I think you'll top your lowest of the year (which was 69 last week, I believe).
Lowest of any team all year was the Boondock Skins in Week 10 with 36.9 (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/301628/matchup?mid1=2&mid2=10&week=10), but they forgot to set their lineup and had 3 players on a Bye. The next-lowest (and Bye-free) was Darcy's Destroyers with 44.9 in Week 5 (http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/301628/matchup?mid1=2&mid2=5&week=5).
Anyway, this is all a roundabout way of saying that you probably won't be setting any records for infamy today. I've only got 40 myself so far, so our game is very much up in the air right now.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 04:15 PM
Yeah we'll see. I don't know whats got in to the Eagles today but they are dominating the Giants. I know the score doesn't indicate that but I'm watching it and they are. I was hoping for at least a few points from Toomer and Boss and so far its not going well.
Fingers crossed!
Good day so far...
Good to see starters performing well the week before the playoffs...
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 04:33 PM
And Darcy may just do me a favor and back me (in classic Seattle fashion) right into the playoffs. Her team has barely played and she is still leading team Tongo.
Westbrook is a monster...
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 06:27 PM
So much for a close game. Sheesh! My team is falling apart at the wrong time.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 07:23 PM
So did Hillis. Doesn't really help me though...
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 08:37 PM
Receivers suck... Next year I'm drafting 6 running backs. Oh well I only have about 40 points to make up. I'm sure Portis can cover that... in Baltimore... against the second best rushing D in the league... with about 5 different injuries... Sigh.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 08:44 PM
Nevermind. I see Dallas pissed their game away and now I need about 60 points. :laugh: I don't think I'm gonna make it.
Wouldn't get too down; you and I are just playing for seeding at this point. The point totals were only going to come into it if TONGO had won, or Sedai had lost, but it looks like neither will happen.
Playoff matchups are still up in the air, though. If Portis puts up approximately 27 points or more, you'll win your tiebreak with Sedai for the #3 slot, and play me next week. Otherwise, Sedai wins the points tiebreak, he plays me, and you play Swedish. That's the most likely outcome right now.
Also, if Portis scores less than 30 points or so, I'll take the overall points lead for the year. Purely a bragging rights thing, though, as I'll be the #2 seed either way.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 09:08 PM
Yeah. How about little Darcy's Destroyers. She's had a pretty solid year really. Good for her. I hope her and Sluggo sign up to play again next year.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 09:12 PM
Your Steelers sure lucked out today big guy! Whew! Huh? :laugh:
Tony Romo stinks. I don't care what anybody says. He will blow it when the game is on the line. He may be the most overrated QB that has yet to win a playoff game that I have ever seen.
Aye, big win. I hesitate to call it mere luck, because we made some huge defensive plays, and it was pretty odd that we weren't up big after the first two quarters. As a Steeler fan, this is a really familiar story: outplaying the other team on most fundamentals, but offseting that with stupid errors. Used to happen to us all the time years ago with fumbles, and this time it was our inept offense. Not that I won't take it, though. Our defense is good enough to bail our offense out almost every time.
I think Romo's a pretty good QB overall, but he's tremendously overrated. Even his TD pass today was ridiculous; Owens as very well covered, and made a pretty improbable catch. Romo seems to get desperate very easily, and just starts heaving the ball around, hoping for the best. It's like hitting the cue ball as hard as you can and, when a ball goes on, pretending that's what you were trying to do.
Of course, this doesn't work much, and we saw that on the last couple series' of the game, where he kept chucking the ball around wildly, overthrowing receivers by as much as 5 yards.
Anyway, great win for the Steelers. I was being cautious in my pronouncements earlier in the year, but I'll say it now: this is a Super Bowl caliber team. We're possibly looking at a #2 seed in the AFC, and with it a first-round Bye and a Divisional Round home game.
Powdered Water
12-07-08, 09:57 PM
I call it luck because I will forever be bitter about the Superbowl. You do have an excellent defense though, if we had half the defense that your team does we might be .500 in the pathetic NFC west but nooooo.
There is going to be some really great playoff games this year.
Ah yeah, I'd forgotten about that. ;) I won't argue with you, because Seattle sports fans have my utmost sympathy. You guys have gotten the shaft for years now. The best thing you guys have to hold onto was that 116-win Mariner season, and that was almost a net negative because they got knocked out in the first round.
Personally, I wouldn't blame you if you just adopted other cities' teams for a couple of years.
It's like hitting the cue ball as hard as you can and, when a ball goes in, pretending that's what you were trying to do.
For an unskilled player like me, it used to work pretty good late at night after a few pitchers.
Good job to Darcy. Well I tried my best but the margin was too wide. I had a great time this year, and thanks again Yoda for having me. I came in as the only Org member in the league, and leave a as a MoFo in training as the Org and I are kaput.
Im predicting a Pittsburgh Vs Giants super bowl, but dont count out the Bucs! Any of those matchups will make a smashmouth game.
Well TONGO - I loved having you along for the ride, but I must say I am glad to know All Day Peterson and The Train will not be in the FFB play-offs this season.
That said, My first round draft pick went down yesterday, and I am in trouble. Already struggling with depth at RB, I am now walking a razor's edge. Luckily for me, and not so much for TONGO, Jacobs went down with that same knee issue yesterday. He says it's fine, but Jacobs is notorious for fibbing about his knee. This injury might be my saving grace, if Ward goes full time for the next two weeks. That's really my only shot at keeping a productive roster in the RB category at this point, with Gore out for at least one week.
Bummer, but, there is hope...
You did a good job, Slug. You were a tricky team to play because you seemed to rely on a different guy to bust loose each week. You had Willie Parker with his huge Week 1 game, and Brett Favre with his ridiculous 6-TD in Week 4.
Great year for you, too, TONGO. You were in it up until the very end and you really worked that waiver wire. At one point or another you picked up Roddy, White, Chad Pennington, Matt Schaub, Mewelde Moore, Isaac Bruce, Anthony Gonzalez, Derrick Ward, and Ricky Williams.
You nabbed White off of the waiver wire in Week 2, and he went on to become the 3rd-highest scoring WR. And, of course, you had the highest scoring week of any team all year when you throttled me 176.16 to 116.30.
So, well done, and congrats on a fine season. :) I'm sure we'll be doing this next year, and I hope you'll join in again.
Thanks yoda, and I will be back next year. This wasnt the first fantasy football Ive been involved in, but its easily been the most fun. Im rooting for you Yoder to win it all as you were cool enough to let me keep the Org in my sig, and play with your crew.
Yes at one point I picked up Ricky Williams, and speaking of Ricky let me tell everyone how I was playing catchup this year as I was stoned out my **** during the live draft. My frickin star QB was Hasselbeck for Seatle! I started 1-3.
I got veeeeery intimate with the waiver wire, and took some chances. In the end my most consistent stable QB was Schaub, but I only had him like 4-5 games, and when he was playing a big D Id go with Orton. Won 5 in a row.
My solid stars were Roddy White, Adrian Peterson, Tampa Bay Defense, and Jacobs. Matt Carney was a sweet kicker till Coughlin went bugsh*t and started using two kickers the lineup switching bastid that he is!
-ahem-
Morale = No matter how well you know fantasy football or football in general nothing can make up for the importance of that first day live draft. Be there for it, and be involved in the process of it. If youre not your chum, and hoping the kicker for Tampa Bay Matt Bryant makes 40 points tonight.
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