MoFo Fantasy Baseball '11 - The Trade Thread

F it - I'm taking Dex's trade...

Ok, I accepted - let's see if it goes through...

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Is the DVD thingy on btw? Forgot to clarify yesterday.

Personally i think it adds a lil flavour to the proceedings. It's a long season, and may act as a deterrant of sorts from flaking out.

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"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it." - Michelangelo.

I'd be down for the DVD thing again, but as before, only if enough other people wanted in.

I for one won't be voting against the Choo/Carpenter trade. I'd rather have Choo, without a doubt, which is why he went so much earlier in the draft. But there are positional needs for Seds to consider, and Carpenter certainly has lots of potential.

I also find it difficult to gauge guys like Choo; on one hand, they don't destroy any categories, but they contribute very well to all five. The consensus among experts seems to be that those guys are more valuable for their breadth of contribution, and I think they're right. But there's probably some argument to be had there, hypothetically.

Well, first off, its a good trade. As i said Carpenter has avg'd 15 wins as a starter for the Cards.

and you are totally stacked at OF so..I really can't see the reasoning for the deal to be shat on.

Was there a separated thread for baseball trade talk in years past guys?

Well i didnt agree with Yahoos ranking of Carpenter..had this convo with Chris at the draft., undervalued at Yahoo, (he's comen off the board 48th at Espn)

Ack! So, you think it's a bad trade, Chris? Both players are valued pretty highly in the auctions, it seems...

By the by, I've sent a couple of offers out and I'll probably send a couple more in the next day or so. Looking for a 3B, possibly a SS, or an upgrade at any other position, potentially.

Got four very good OFs and all of them can be moved; Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth, Hunter Pence, and B.J. Upton. Can move probably two starters, too. I've got seven in all and all but one of them had double-digit wins last year, and the only exception (Chacin) was one short because he missed a bit of time.

Luckily for me there are probably four or five teams that need either an OF or a SP, so I imagine a few deals will be swung.

I wouldn't say bad. It's more that, in a vacuum, there is a very broad consensus that Choo is more valuable. Most places don't think he's way more valuable, though. Choo goes a few rounds higher in ESPN drafts, I believe, and a few rounds higher still in Yahoo. I think ESPN has Choo at $22 and Carpenter at $16. So it's not crazy or anything; however big the gap is depends on which site you believe. I err more towards ESPN (which has a moderate but not huge difference between them) than Yahoo (which hates Carpenter for some reason).

I think a big part of it depends on need, to be sure, and options. It's the kind of deal I'd absolutely make near the trade deadline if I'd been having trouble finding room for my hitters and/or was struggling with pitching, so a big part of it depends on whether or not you think you'd have gotten more elsewhere. Hard to say.

It is not abhorrent to my sensibilities, though. It also depends greatly on how much you value upside versus stability. Choo is crazy stable, but he's probably not going to bust out and put up top 10 overall (amongst all positions) numbers. He'll just be very, very good in all five categories.

its hard comparing players from different positions.

As a lifelong Jays fan, it wasn't easy letten Carpenter go i'll tell you that. He's in a great situation in St. Loo. Yes he's 36, but is still in around 200 k a year plus has always been a innings pig, add to that a sick run support squad, and he's 15 wins in the bank.

Soo is steady eddie from what i see, his Ribbies I'm concerned about a lil..he plays for the indians after all.

Yeah, I guess I don't have any other guys of value to move (I never trade my first round pick). Choo was really the only bargaining chip I had to get a top 15 pitcher.

I talked to a fantasy nut at poker last week, and he had a few interesting things to say.

1 - The draft is the biggest and most important factor in the game. He said that unlike football, you REALLY need to draft well to have a shot. A lopsided draft usually means an auto-loss for the season unless you can trade out of it.

2 - Always propose trades, never accept them. He said unless someone doesn't understand the stat system (like myself), most trades are designed to help the person proposing the trade more than the person being asked to trade. He said each player has a specific value in relation to all other players, and you need to be good at figuring out why and how this works. Chris illustrated why Choo is a much more valuable player than Carpenter above, and why I lost value on the trade and Dex gained it. Shame on me for not being up to speed on this stuff. I really had no clue about that concept above until now. I accepted the trade though, so the deal is done.

3 - Never play Head-to-Head format, ever. He didn't give me much as to why on this, he just said all the people who have been playing for a long time avoid this format.

And lastly:

4 - Stop playing Fantasy Football. This is, of course, a silly thing to say. Alas, he had a bunch of solid reasoning as to why head-to-head fantasy football is inherently flawed, and why he quit playing it completely. He pointed out that consistent team management and moves won't win you trophies, only luck will. He said "it's possible to be the second highest in points every single week while still placing LAST in the league (losing to the top score each week), and that that is just goofy. I guess he has a point in a way, but I just don't look at the games that way.

I'd quibble with your friend on a few points. But he has some good things to say. I'll just run through 'em. Great post, though. Great excuse to talk about the theories involved.

1. The draft is very important, to be sure, but there are always great pickups during the season. I've picked up a couple of start-worthy guys each year. You're less likely to pickup a huge impact guy the way you are in football, but you're way more likely to fill little holes, particularly at infield positions and closer. It also, of course, depends on the league setup. The draft matters way more in a deep league, and/or one where all the owners are both experienced and dedicated.

2. Probably too simplistic. Obviously if a person offers a trade they've already decided it's probably good for them, but I've accepted lots of trades that I didn't propose and been glad I did later. That said, his advice is probably good if you need to tell someone new to fantasy baseball something useful in just a single sentence, since it rules out the possibility of a new guy getting fleeced.

3. By this, he almost certainly means that head-to-head involves more luck than Rotisserie style. Which is true. But it also creates more drama and tension, particularly in the playoffs, whereas in a Rotisserie league the last few weeks of the season can be largely symbolic or obligatory. So it depends on what you value: more fun for more people, or making sure the best team wins every time? There's no right answer. Though I'd absolutely be willing to switch to Rotisserie next year. I've only played it once in my life, actually, and coincidentally I both first used a Springfield team name then and happened to win it. Yay. I think that was my first-ever baseball championship, actually.

4. This relates to #3. He's not wrong; it's a very luck-based game. It's one of those things where being very good at it just puts you in the playoffs (and not even always then), but after that fate has to smile on you a little. No doubt about it.

Given #3 and #4, it sounds like he's mostly about making sure the best-run team wins above all else. Which is understandable.

Oh, I, uh...just offered someone a trade involving Pujols.

Yes, I am just that crazy.

Yeah - he plays for cash, so I think that would be the priority. I just play for fun.

Yeah, that's a big part of it. Though I will say that the head to head format produces some crappy results sometimes. We remedy that a little by having a two-week championship round here, but it's not perfect.

Rotisserie, for those wondering, by the way, is where you simply count up the ten categories as the season goes on and then assign points based on your rank. So maybe the #1 team in steals gets 14 points in a 14 team league, the #2 team gets 13 points, etc. This happens across all ten categories and whoever has the most points wins.

It has its own drama, to be sure. It also produces crazier trades because if you've got a 20 homer lead on everyone in the last couple of weeks you can really afford to deal "too much" power to make a run at moving up a rank or two in steals, for example. Way more strategy at the end of the year. I'll bring this up again next season and we'll see who's on board. It's considered a more "pure" way to play, and it's the way Fantasy Baseball started, actually. But head-to-head gives more people a chance, I think, and since we have a few first-timers transplanted from the football league this setup is more familiar, so it's good for this year, I think.

I'll bet your friend plays with an auction format, too. Can't get more fair than both an auction and a Rotisserie format.

He does use auction, yes.

It's tempting. Both for baseball and football. But I guess I've favored drama and accessibility in these leagues, so that as many people as possible both play and enjoy themselves. But I'm down for whatever in both next year. Or even a second league for people who want to play with the format.

I can't really argue with anyone who says it's a "better" way to play. Better depending on what you want, to be sure, but it's a persuasive argument, since I tend to favor games that minimize luck when possible.

Well, I certainly don't feel as though i had a mask on while proposing the trade.

Maybe what your buddy means, is don't take the 1st deal offer, always counter.

I know guys who do this in hockey. I don't set out to fleece the other guy fwiw. Take this deal, its probably not a deal i organically think to offer, until you made a post lamenting the lack of "big name" talent on your pitching rotation.

so i looked at what i have, plus see where your team is heaviest for talent and went from there.

Imo in baseball, and this is a guess as its the 1st time i'm doing this, draft position is only of any value in determining trade compatability in the 1st 2 rounds.

after teh no brainer stud picks have been snapped up, where folks draft is largely based on how you choose to go about building your particular team.

btw, for those on google chrome this app is sweet:

https://chrome.google.com/extensions...fcngihnp?hl=en

Oh, as I said before, I thought the trade was fair. Other people seem to think it isn't so fair, but not enough to counter it with a veto, which is fine.

Just making an official announcement Im not gonna trade at all this season. Maybe between the baseball season, and then no NFL season, and then another no-trading baseball season when the next fantasy football season comes around ill be purged of all impulsive trading compulsions!

Alls I need is Derek Jeter and thats and that's the only thing I need is Derek Jeter. I don't need anything. Except this. The ashtray, and this paddle game. Derek Jeter, the ashtray and the paddle game and that's all I need... And this remote control. - Derek Jeter, ashtray, the paddle game, and the remote control, and that's all I need...

[outside now] And I don't need one other thing, except my dog.

[dog growls at him]
I don't need my dog.

Aw. You have too many players I like to do that! You have the two best Pirates, though I guess that's not usually saying much.

Somehow I doubt abstaining will purge you of all desire. Anyway, lemme know if you reconsider, because I'm always open to stuff and I do have a soft spot for Pirates from time to time.

i knew i should have drafted more Devil Rays.

i just knew it