MoFo Fantasy Football 2014 - The Playoffs

Yeah, she was bummed about it, but since she made the Super Bowl in her other league (the luck this girl has...), she at least has that. She says this is the only league she really cares about though, and has once again sworn she will never play again. This promise always lasts until the next year's draft!

As usual, I had a blast, and can't wait to do it all again next year!

Grats to Yoda and Badger!

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Before the matchup preview, a quick rundown of both teams and how they got here:

The Road to MoFo Bowl VII

Hired Goons: History and Season

Badger joined the league in its second year, 2009. Your first impression of him probably came when he took Aaron Rodgers #1 overall even before he was Aaron Rodgers. He went 6-7 that year, 6-7 the next, then 5-8, then had to withdraw from the league (and the site, more or less) for a couple of years for school, before returning this year. And what a return it's ended up being.

Badger's first draft picks were Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Alshon Jeffrey, and he hung onto all of them all year. With Nelson, this was easy, because he's had a great year, but I'm sure he fielded many offers for Lacy early in the year. He stuck by him, and it's paid off, as Lacy heads into week 16 the 6th-highest scoring RB. Not the heights a lot of people had hoped he'd reached, but a big comeback after a slow start, and decent value for a first rounder.

He took Cordarelle Patterson in the 4th, who's been a total bust. I took him in my other league, so I can't really make fun of this one. Scary to think of what this team would look like if he'd lived up to expectations, though.

He made just one trade all year, in week 3, and it was a shrewd one: he capitalized on Steve Smith's strong start with Baltimore after week 3 in exchange for an underperforming T.Y. Hilton. This is a classic trade archetype: a guy with a surprisingly good start for a predraft darling off to a slow one. It's not a guarantee, but it's a good percentage play, and in this case it paid off. That move, combined with Lacy's resurgence, propelled him to the second-highest score of the regular season, and the corresponding #2 seed.

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11 Angry Men: History and Season

I played in the first four MoFo Bowls and won two of them, just narrowly missing out on the one inbetween. But after that I missed the playoffs by just a game in both 2012 and 2013, so every year it's been MoFo Bowl or bust. And nothing focuses the mind like sitting home during the playoffs for a couple of years.

My team was built very differently than Badger's. I traded four of my first six draft picks and released another. Only Rodgers stayed with the team the whole year, a huge bargain at #21 overall. Preseason, I decided to avoid most highly ranked RBs and focus on receivers, so I traded Lynch (my 1st rounder) for Demaryius Thomas and his brother[citation needed], Pierre. I decided to work the waiver wire at RB and deal possible breakout players for more established ones. If I gave away someone early in a career year, so be it. As it turns out, this was the perfect year for this strategy, as the RB market was desolate just a few weeks into the season.

A 5-2 start and confidence about the team's trajectory allowed me to take on injured players like Calvin Johnson, stocking up for the end of the year at the possible expense of a win or two in the regular season. It ended up not costing in the short-term, anyway: I started 2-2, and haven't lost in the nearly 3 months since.

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A huge congrats to Badger on his fine team, and a hearty virtual handshake at the metaphorical coin toss. Preview of the specific matchup coming soon. Game on!

Something else of note in regards to history repeating itself....

Last year JiraffeJustin won the MoFo league and the Jungle league. Clean sweep! This year in the Jungle my buddy Ray and teeter were completely dominant, especially Ray. I had to face Ray Sunday and Badger faced Teeter. We both pulled the major upset, and are in the PPR Jungle final for 2014.

Badger may do what Justin did, the year right after.

wow

MoFo Bowl VII

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11 Angry Men (12-2) vs. Hired Goons (10-4)



This is it!



It's safe to chalk up Rodgers' struggles to Buffalo's defense, which has shut down the two best QBs in football the last two weeks. QB is the only place Badger really had to skimp to be relatively stacked elsewhere. He had a ton of early success because this ostensible weak point was actually a strong point for him early in the year, but Rivers has come back down to earth lately, and he gets a tough matchup with the 49ers this week. But is he even starting Rivers? Maybe not; he may go with Sanchez, who's got a better matchup, but hasn't had any big games this year and has struggled lately.

Rodgers, on the other hand, gets a pretty tasty matchup with Tampa Bay, and a huge bounceback seems inevitable. Big advantage for the Angry Men here.



Arian Foster and Latavius Murray on one side, Eddie Lacy and Daniel Herron on the other. Really similar groups here: a stud RB and a late-emerging RB2. The difference beeing that both of my guys have higher ceilings (and, admittedly, lower floors), and Badger's probably have a narrower, safer range of likely outcomes. His matchups are average, but both of mine are tough. My hope is that Foster gets into the end zone at least once and that sheer volume of work (he got 26 carries last week) makes up for what figures to be a mediocre YPC against Baltimore.

Calling this one a wash, I think; maybe a very slight edge to the Goons for the matchups.



It's ridiculous that Badger has the 3rd, 8th, and 10th-highest scoring WRs and is somehow not the favorite at this position. That's three #1 receivers, and any other year, any other team and that'd be a huge advantage at the position. But Hilton's a little banged up and I'm trotting out the #1 and #2 scorers at the position...and the other guy is Calvin Johnson, who'd probably be right there with them if he'd stayed healthy. I literally would not trade any of these three receivers for any other receiver. Now excuse me while I go to Kinko's and turn this image into a poster so I can make out with it:



Also, two weeks in a row!



Advantage (though not a massive one), Angry Men.



Greg Olsen is the #2 tight end in our scoring system this year. Delanie Walker is #7. My guy's good, his is really good/great. Not a massive difference, but a clear one. Advantage Goons.



Defense is a wasteland this year, with no obvious league leaders, no one putting up good or dominant totals all year. Very hit and miss, and even more random than usual. His DET defense is a better defense, and they have an above-average matchup. If I go with the Titans mine will be a pretty bad defense against the worst offense in football (I picked them up weeks ago for exactly this reason). If I play Miami, I'll be playing a pretty good defense against a pretty bad offense.

A lot of this comes down to whether you prefer defensive talent, or matchup. Detroit's the closest thing to a reliably good defense we've seen this year, though, so...Advantage Goons.



Yahoo projects the 11 Angry Men for 137 points, which is pretty insane, and I'm pretty sure it's a season high. But the Goons are projected for the low-to-mid-120s, which is pretty flippin' good, too.

The actual advantage might be smaller than that--I checked with half a dozen other projection sites, and Yahoo has the biggest margin, by far. Most of the others have it within a few points. Averaged together, they suggest very modest lead that, given how random football can be, might as well be a toss up. I wouldn't go that far, myself, but this matchup is a lot closer than I'd have guessed, and certainly a lot closer than I'm comfortable with.

All that said, I think this lineup has to be considered a favorite against anyone right now. And there's something poetic about closing out the season with the 11 Angry Men winning their 11th in a row.

Okay, that preview was me trying to be objective. Now, to completely abandon that!

After winning a championship in fantasy sports, there are only a handful of bucket list items that can top the experience. Call them the three Ds:

• Dynasty: Winning consecutive titles, several in a short period of time, etc.
• Domination: Winning in convincing fashion all year.
• Dilligence: Winning it all after a terrible start through managerial skill.

I think the first one is already checked off, with four MoFo Bowls (and two championships) in the first four years. And that second one is now within reach. A win here caps off a 13-2 season in which every major season league record has been broken. It wouldn't just be the best team in league history--it would probably stay that way for awhile.

Obviously, this is true whether it happens to win this week or not. If you build a team that dominates in the regular season, you've done your job and you inevitably have to roll the dice and hope it performs at the same level "when it counts." You can only build a team that will usually win. A team that would win if you ran the simulation 10,000 times. But we're only running it once. Any given Sunday, as they say. And, you know, Saturday and Thursday, I guess. Thanks for ruining that saying, NFL.

Anyway, my congratulations to Badger on putting together such an excellent team. It would be a worthy champion, and you're a great owner that I wouldn't mind losing to. At least not above and beyond the normal pain of losing. Cheers!

Great match up guys. Looking forward to seeing the outcome. Good luck to both of you.

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Letterboxd

IT IS TIME.

I am proud to be a part of MoFo Bowl VII, especially after my first three seasons finishing below .500 with zero playoff appearances. This is easily the most competitive league I've ever been a part of and I came back in the league this year hungry for the trophy, ready to do what was necessary to at the very least earn a playoff spot. But now I am here, MoFo Bowl VII, playing for what we all dream about. And folks, I did not come all this way to surrender it to the man who already has two championships.

Last night, I wrote down my own projections based on the matchup and as a result found that I gave 11 Angry Men a 10-point advantage but that's if it's another average week in the NFL which we know never happens. Excluding the bye week, I haven't outscored 11 Angry Men since Week 11. Did you catch that? Week 11. And now the 11 Angry Men are trying to ride off in the sunset with their 11th consecutive win? Very interesting, I'll let you analyze that one.

Okay as far as the matchup goes, I think it's clear that the Hired Goons are the underdog in this one but here is how they will win this week.

QBs: Aaron Rodgers vs. .........Mark Sanchez? Please tell me I got Rodgers in this one. What's that you say? Mark Sanchez? Dear god. It's not really that bad, I still may go with Rivers but I really like the matchup against the Redskins and think that the Eagles will be very motivated and win big. Sanchez has posted two 20-point performances thus far and think that he gets another one this week, Rivers is really hard to trust especially now without Keenan Allen, I think the Eagles game has a lot more potential for scoring especially in the Chip Kelly offense. I am expecting Aaron Rodgers to have a great game but think I can counter this if Rodgers goes to Nelson, or Lacy finishes up drives with rushing TDs. 11 Angry Men clearly has the edge but I'm not as worried about it due to the Packers players I have on my team.

RBs Foster and Murray vs. Lacy and Herron. I expect both of us to have pretty similar numbers from the RB matchups, Foster and Lacy will put up big numbers and Murray and Herron will have decent performances. Apparently Ravens can be stingy against the run so here's hoping they can at least slow down Foster. I have a feeling Lacy will feast on Tampa Bay.

WRs Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown on one team. In a 14-team league. Don't ask me how it happened but it has, actually Chris has always been an excellent trader but I will admit it's been tough watching the various trades go down seeing as this man seems to always be in the Championship game. In fact, every year that I've played . Anyways, he has the major edge here... usually I'm very confident in my WRs but feeling a little shaky this week. Hilton HAS to play this week and have an impact, and Alshon Jeffery will be catching passes from Jimmy Clausen. I predict D Thomas will have an average game this week however.

TE, K, DST This is where I think I can gain for other areas in which I may be a little weaker. I have had pretty solid production from these three positions all season long with Olsen, Suisham, and this week it's Detroit. Going up against D Walker, Parkey, and Carolina D which of course is a potential masterful play going against Manziel and all. D Walker plays tonight, he's been one of the better TEs this season but has been inconsistent at times too. We'll see.

Congratulations to Chris and his 11 Angry Men for once again assembling an excellent fantasy team and playing in his fifth MoFo Bowl, and if you haven't heard going for his 11th consecutive win which is very impressive. Unfortunately for him, he has to go through the Hired Goons before that can be achieved. This is making me remember another Bowl, a Super Bowl, Super Bowl XLV in fact. There was a certain bet made at that time, that may or may not had to do with Chris' beloved Pittsburgh Steelers. Maybe a distant memory for him, but it will all look too familiar to him by the end of this MoFo Bowl VII:


(Good luck Chris )

Ah, finally, a little trash talk in this league! Everyone's been too nice and all my attempts to get it going have been thwarted.

I think your analysis is spot-on: you're trying to keep margin reasonable at WR and QB so that your advantage at DEF and TE (and maybe RB) can make up the difference.

There's a lot of criss-crossing interests here, as you alluded to with Nelson and Lacy. Obviously, I'm hoping a lot of production goes to Cobb and Quarless and Freeman and all that, otherwise you'll actually gain (though only a bit) each time Rodgers hooks up with either of them. Similarly, you both gain and lose with Claussen playing over Cutler, since you have Jeffrey and the defense playing against him.

My original plan was to play the Titans against Jacksonville tonight, but as bad as the Jags have been, I actually think they might move the ball here. Always tough to know whether to consider primarily the quality of the defense of the offense; in this case I decided the Titans were just too shaky, so I'll take my chances with Carolina. Genuinely tough choice, though.

I have some other thoughts about your lineup and some of the decisions there, but I'll save them for when everything's locked in, in case I change your mind about anything.

I don't know, I was kind of counting on Cutler to give me some points this week to my defense I'm sure Clausen will fill in nicely, however. And hey, maybe throw a TD to Jeffrey or something in a sea of interceptions.

Jacksonville has given up the most points to defenses all season, but yeah after seeing Cleveland's performance last week it must be very tempting to play the Carolina D.

Don't think I'll be making any lineup changes, bench is weak and my trust is in you Mr. Sanchez.

Well, good news and bad for last night's game. The good news is I was right not to play the Titans' D. The bad news is Delanie Walker only put up 7.4 points, even though 6 of those came in the first third of the game. This isn't a disaster--coming into this week a TE that put up that total each game would be a low-end starter--but it's below 7 of the 8 projections I looked at.

What's particularly frustrating is that I watched part of this game, and Whitehurst just flat out missed him in the end zone for an easy TD that would've doubled his total. Most fantasy matchups aren't decided by < 7 points, but if this one is, yeah, I'll be remembering that for a long time.

Status:11 Angry Men 7.4, Hired Goons 0.0.

Yeah I was watching the stats for the game, Walker started out well early in the game.. but I'm glad to see only 7.4 points since he got 18 points last time I played you.

That's the good news. And the bad news for me is it's looking like Hilton isn't going to be playing this Sunday, which really hurts since he's been one of my best contributors lately. My bench is really questionable so might have to start a really chancy player and hope for the best. Argh

Yeah, that could help a lot, especially if Claussen can't get Jeffrey the ball (though in that case your loss is mitigated by the benefits for the Detroit defense). What you're really hoping for, though, is a clear indication well in advance, since Hilton plays a 4:00 game.

Gotta love how fantasy football makes you follow random teams' beat writers on Twitter for less than a day.

Also, worth noting that Demaryius Thomas plays Monday night, so there's a decent chance we're both sweating it out for another day, unless I already have a lead at the end of Sunday, or you rack up a big margin.

Yeah, I have Hilton in my Super Bowl, and it looks like I am going to have to roll with his replacement, rookie Donte Moncrief instead.

Ruh Roh...

Well, here we go.

Now that Sanchez is locked in I can safely say that I made a slight error in letting him go. I picked him up last week to block raul, and I even looked ahead to see if I should drop him, and decided, for whatever reason, that you were very unlikely to bench Rivers. I think you're right to play Sanchez, though. I don't think he's a great option, given last week and his general lack of upside, but he's got a decent floor and he's a better option than one would normally hope to find in week 16 in a league this size.

That said, Sanchez lost a fumble on the first drive. Philadelphia just scored, but it was on a McCoy run. So far, so good.

Sanchez with a TD pass. Big deal, because in a matchup with a lot of talented players on both sides, it's very likely to come down to which guys get into the end zone, which is pretty hard to predict.

Particularly big because it came on third down, and if he doesn't get in there, I get the FG from Parkey. But hey, at least I get one of the points right back.

That single TD is the difference between a really bad first half and an okay one, though.

Yeah, very thankful for that Sanchez TD especially because he missed an easy one the play before. 12 points in the first half which is a lot better than what it was looking like and is the kind of number I was hoping for before the game started. Glad the Eagles were forced to punt on that last series, instead of getting a Parkey FG, even though I actually have Parkey in my other Championship game

So if Sanchez could get at least another TD and Parkey is limited in the second half, I'll feel pretty good about where I would be going into tomorrow. But then there's that FLEX spot of mine, wowzers

Yeah, that blown play that kept them out of FG range was rough. That was almost definitely gonna be 4 points.

Philly just recovered a fumble on the second half kickoff. Here's hoping it isn't another quick passing score.

Haha wow Parkey misses the kick

Geez. Defense holds and Parkey misses a chip shot. That's nuts.